Economic Outlook December 2013 Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook December 2013
Feb 24, 2016
Economic Outlook December 2013. Economic Policy Division. Real GDP Outlook. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q3 2013. Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale. $14.0. Forecast. $ 12.5. $10.8. $ 7.9. $ 6.8. Comparing Recessions. Personal Consumption Outlook. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Economic OutlookDecember 2013
Economic Policy Division
1980 1981 1983 1984 1986 1987 1989 1990 1992 1993 1995 1996 1998 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real GDP Outlook
U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1970 to Q3 2013
Real GDP Trillion 2005 Dollars Log Scale
1980198019801980198119811981198119821982198219821983198319831983198419841984198419851985198519851986198619861986198719871987198719881988198819881989198919891989199019901990199019911991199119911992199219921992199319931993199319941994199419941995199519951995199619961996199619971997199719971998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020002001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032004200420042004200520052005200520062006200620062007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201220122013201320132013
Actual
Potential
48.0
Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office
$12.5
$7.9
$14.0
$10.8
$6.8
Forecast
Comparing Recessions
Trough
GDP Loss (Peak to Trough)
Duration of Recession
GDP Growth in the following year
GDP Growth in the following 2 years
GDP Growth in the following 3 years
Average monthly payroll employment growth in 3 years following trough (thous.)
Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak
May 1954 (II) -2.5 (%)
10 (months) 7.9 (%)
5.0 (%) 4.0 116 13
April 1958 (II) -3.1 8 9.6 5.7 4.2 72 12February 1961 (I) -0.5 10 7.5
5.6 5.8 117 10
November 1970 (IV) -0.2 11 4.5
5.7 5.2 103 6
March 1975 (I) -3.2 16 6.2 4.7 4.5 245 9November 1982 (IV) -2.6 16 7.7
6.7 5.8 268 12
March 1991(I) -1.4 8 2.6 3.0 3.2 128 23November 2001 (IV) +0.7 8 1.9
2.9 2.9 36 39
June 2009 (II) -4.7 18 2.5 2.2 2.2 86 N/A
19801980198019801981198119811981198219821982198219831983198319831984198419841984198519851985198519861986198619861987198719871987198819881988198819891989198919891990199019901990199119911991199119921992199219921993199319931993199419941994199419951995199519951996199619961996199719971997199719981998199819981999199919991999200020002000200020012001200120012002200220022002200320032003200320042004200420042005200520052005200620062006200620072007200720072008200820082008200920092009200920102010201020102011201120112011201220122012201220132013201320132014201420142014-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Personal Consumption Outlook
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
Thousands
Real Pay Per Worker
Household Balance Sheet
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q419811981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q419821982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q419831983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q419841984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q419861986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q419871987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q419881988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q419891989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q419911991199119911992199219921992199319931993199319941994199419941995199519951995199619961996199619971997199719971998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020002001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032004200420042004200520052005200520062006200620062007200720072007200820082008200820092009200920092010201020102010201120112011201120122012201220122013201310
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Trillion $
Household Wealth
1 5 9 13 17 210
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nonfinancial Assets
Financial Assets
Trillion $ Household Assets
1991
1991
1991
1991
1992
1992
1992
1992
1993
1993
1993
1993
1994
1994
1994
1994
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
1999
2000
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
10
11
12
13
14
15Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Consumer Debt Service
Household Balance Sheet
0
5
10
15
20
Trillion $
Household Liabilities
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Thous. of Units, SAAR
Housing Market Trends
Housing Starts
200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201080
120
160
200
240
280Sales Price, Thous. $
Existing HomesNew Homes
Median Home Prices
20002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220132013201320132013201320132013201320132500
3500
4500
5500
6500
7500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Thous. of Units, SAAR
Existing Home Sales (right axis)New Home Sales (left axis)
Home Sales
20002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220132013201320132013201320132013201380
100
120
140
160
180
200
220Housing
Affordability Index
Housing Market Trends
20002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220132013201320132013201320132013201320131500
2500
3500
4500
100
300
500
700Thous. of Units, SAAR
Existing Homes (right axis)New Homes (left axis)
Housing Inventory
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012100
105
110
115
120
125Millions
Household For-mation
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Percent
Home Mortgages with Negative
Equity
20002000
20012002
20032003
20042005
20062006
20072008
20092009
20102011
20122012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Foreclosures: AllForeclosures: SubprimeDelinquencies: PrimeDelinquencies: Subprime
Mortgage Delinquency and
Foreclosure Rates
Real Business Investment Outlook
19801980 - Q21980 - Q31980 - Q419811981 - Q21981 - Q31981 - Q419821982 - Q21982 - Q31982 - Q419831983 - Q21983 - Q31983 - Q419841984 - Q21984 - Q31984 - Q419851985 - Q21985 - Q31985 - Q419861986 - Q21986 - Q31986 - Q419871987 - Q21987 - Q31987 - Q419881988 - Q21988 - Q31988 - Q419891989 - Q21989 - Q31989 - Q419901990 - Q21990 - Q31990 - Q419911991 - Q21991 - Q31991 - Q419921992 - Q21992 - Q31992 - Q419931993 - Q21993 - Q31993 - Q419941994 - Q21994 - Q31994 - Q419951995 - Q21995 - Q31995 - Q41996199619961996199719971997199719981998199819981999199919991999200020002000200020012001200120012002200220022002200320032003200320042004200420042005200520052005200620062006200620072007200720072008200820082008200920092009200920102010201020102011201120112011201220122012201220132013201320132014201420142014-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real Private Investment in
Equipment
1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 201240
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Percent of CapacityInvestment
Industrial Production
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Percent of Capacity
Capacity Utilization
Sector Indicators
80
100
120
140SA, 2000=100
ATA Truck Tonnage Index
300
400
500
600thous, 6-month moving average
Total Rail Carloadings
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,4006 month moving average; thous. tons
Boxboard Production
1 6 11 160
2
4
6
8
10
12$ Billions Monthly Leasing
and Finance Index
Energy
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20123,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
US Crude Oil Production
Thousands of Barrels per Day
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Spot Oil Prices: West Texas Interme-diate
$/ Barrel
Labor Market
1991199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911992199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921993199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931994199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941995199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951996199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971998199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981999199919991999199919991999199919991999199919992000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122013100
110
120
130
140Million
199119921993199319941994199419941995199519961996199619961997199719971997199819981998199819981998199919991999199920002000200020012001200120012001200220022002200220032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052006200620062006200620072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920102010201020102010201020102010201020112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122013201320132013201320132013201320132013201320132013201320132013200
300
400
500
600
700SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average
199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911991199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921992199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931993199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941994199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951995199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961996199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971997199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201320132013201320132013201320132013201320132
46
810
121416
18
Unemployment Rate U-6
Percent
Total Nonfarm Jobs
Initial Unemployment
Claims
Unemployment Rate November:
7.0%
1991199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911992199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921993199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931994199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941995199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951996199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961997199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971998199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981999199919991999199919991999199919991999199919992000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112012201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122013100
110
120
130
140
150Million
Household Employment
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061
62
64
66
68SA, percent
Civilian Participation
Rate
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Median Weeks Unemployed, SA
Duration of Unemployment
198019801980198019801980198019801980198019801980198119811981198119811981198119811981198119811981198219821982198219821982198219821982198219821982198319831983198319831983198319831983198319831983198419841984198419841984198419841984198419841984198519851985198519851985198519851985198519851985198619861986198619861986198619861986198619861986198719871987198719871987198719871987198719871987198819881988198819881988198819881988198819881988198919891989198919891989198919891989198919891989199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911991199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921992199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931993199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941994199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951995199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961996199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971997199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201320132013201320132013201320132013201320130
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000Thousands Part-time for Economic
Reasons
1 14 270
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000Thousands
Marginally Attached
Discouraged Workers
Labor Market
Employment-Population Ratio
1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 201352
54
56
58
60
62
64
66Percent
Labor Market
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000 Total SeparationsThousands
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000Total HiresThousands
Labor Market
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Net Job Creation
Thousands
U.S. Trade
2006
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
SAAR, Bil. Chn. 2000$
Real Net Exports of Goods and Services
199119911991199119911991199119911991199119911991199219921992199219921992199219921992199219921992199319931993199319931993199319931993199319931993199419941994199419941994199419941994199419941994199519951995199519951995199519951995199519951995199619961996199619961996199619961996199619961996199719971997199719971997199719971997199719971997199819981998199819981998199819981998199819981998199919991999199919991999199919991999199919991999200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002000200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012001200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022002200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032003200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042004200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052005200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062006200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072007200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082008200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092009201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102010201120112011201120112011201120112011201120112011201220122012201220122012201220122012201220122012201365
75
85
95
105
115Exchange Rate (Major Currencies/US$)
U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange
Rate
Eurozone Growth and Jobs
Source: Oxford Economics
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013-12.0-10.0
-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
Percent Change, Annual Rate
Real GDP
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 20136.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0Percent
Unemployment Rates
Source: Oxford Economics
Emerging Markets
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 20130
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mexico China
Percent Unemployment Rates
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Mexico China
Percent Change, Year to YearReal GDP
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Interest Rates & Spreads
Risk SpreadMoody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield
Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa
Corporate Bond Yield
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0Percent
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
3-Month Treasury Note Yield
12345678910111213141516171819
0
1
2
3
4Percent
TED Spread3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month
Treasury
Jan2008
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec
Jan2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan2013
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)
Billions $
Fed Policy
Bank Assets and Liabilities
1 4 7 10 13 16 190
100200300400500600700800900
Large Small
Billions $ C&I Loans at Commercial Banks
1 2 3 4 5 6 70
2
4
6
8
10
12
C&I Loans
Credit Cards
Residential Real Estate
Commercial Real Estate
Percent Delinquency Rates at Commercial Banks
Domestic Bank Lending
1 7 13 190
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
LargeSmall
Billions $ Securities at Commercial Banks
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
-15
-10
-5
0
5Percent of GDP
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500Billions $
Deficit to GDP
CBO’s Baseline Deficit
(May 2013)Budget Deficit
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0102030405060708090
Percent of GDP
Government Baseline Outside Debt
(CBO’s Baseline – May 2013)
Debt to GDP
Debt
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000Billions $
Government Gross Debt
(CBO’s Baseline – May 2013)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000Billions $
Gross Debt to GDP
Gross Debt
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
20162018
20202022
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Government Revenues and Outlays( percent of GDP)
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Revenues (%GDP) Outlays (%GDP)
Forecast
Source: CBO Baseline (May 2013)
Debt Stabilization Scenarios
Growth Rates Interest Rates
1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 6.0%
9.5% -8.0% -6.1% -4.2% -3.3%
4.5% -3.4% -1.5% 0.5% 1.5%
4.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 2.0%
2% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0%Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, U.S. Fiscal Primer I: The Deficit and Debt
34.4%
53.2%
12.5%
FY 2000(% of total)
Total Outlays: $1.8 trillion
35.1%
58.5%
6.5%
FY 2013(% of total)
Total Outlays: $3.5 trillion
24.2%
61.8%
14.1%
FY 2023(% of total)
Total Outlays: $5.9 trillion
Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest
Government Outlays
39.4%
21.0%
11.4%
13.0%
15.2%
FY 2000(% of total)
Mandatory Outlays: $950 billion
34.6%
25.3%
11.3%
15.1%
13.6%
FY 2013(% of total)
Mandatory Outlays: $2.0 trillion
40.0%
29.0%
13.1%
16.9%
11.2%
FY 2023(% of total)
Mandatory Outlays: $3.6 trillion
Mandatory Spending
Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending
FY 2013 Revenues and Outlays
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Individual and Corporate Income TaxesSocial Insurance TaxesOther
Billions
Revenues
Outlays
Source: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary
FY 2023 Revenues and Outlays
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Individual and Corporate Income TaxesSocial Insurance TaxesOther
Billions
RevenuesOutlays
Source: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary
49.6%
32.2%
10.2%7.9%
FY 2000(% of total)
Total Revenues: $2.0 trillion
51.6%
31.4%
10.2%
6.7%
FY 2023(% of total)
Total Revenues: $5.0 trillion
Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes
Government Revenues by Source
47.4%
33.8%
10.3%
8.4%
FY 2013(% of total)
Total Revenues: $2.8 trillion
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