105th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1997 (Includes data available as of March 5, 1997) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers LIBRARY MAR. 2 4 1997 RESERVE CHICAGO UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1997 Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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105th Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
FEBRUARY 1997(Includes data available as of March 5, 1997)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
L I B R A R Y
MAR. 2 4 1997
RESERVECHICAGO
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1997
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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, ChairmanCONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)MARK SANFORD (South Carolina)MAC THORNBERRY (Texas)JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California)JIM McCRERY (Louisiana)FORTNEY PETE STARK (California)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)ROD GRAMS (Minnesota)SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas)JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama)JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)
CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
JANET L. YELLEN, ChairALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member
JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member-Nominee
{PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Anns of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copiesto the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949. , v.
Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing)from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
For sale by the U.S. Government Printing OfficeSuperintendent of Documents. Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328
ISBN 0-16-054218-9
11
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TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDINGGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTIn the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose5.3 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.9 percent, and the Implicit price deflatorrose 1.4 percent.
BltUONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS Of DOUARS (RATIO SCALE)
8,000
7,400
7,200
6,800
6/400
6,000
5,600
5,200
4,800
4,400
4,000
3,600
3,200
5EA5ONAU.Y ADJUSTH) AWUAL RATES
^
^~-
x^
IN aGDP
IAINED(1992)DOU\
s- ~
s
_ - _
1 1 t
1982
X
//i i t1983
x-
S
1984
,-
x
f 1 1
1985
, — — "
^s~~
\ \ 11986
>•
'-'
^\
LARS
x^
x^ GDP' IN CURRENT DOUARS
i i i1987
l I I1988
1 1 1
1989
--...
x —
1 1 11990
^
l i i
1991
fS^~
1992
.-<
L t L
1993
.,-'
i i i1994
"
t i i1995
X
^
l i l1996
8,000
7,600
7,200
6,800
6,400
6,000
5,600
5,200
4,800
4,400
4,000
3,600
3,200
SOURCE DEFftHTMENT Of CQMMBKE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACMSBtS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
198819891990199119921993199419951996'1991- IV1992: IV1993: I
1 Output is measured by ODP of nonfinaneial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars.2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business
with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability phis business transfer payments less subsidies.4With,inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
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NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1 Includes other items, not shown separately.NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1993) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to anyintermediate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
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SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $19.4 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $47.9 billion in December.Wages and salaries decreased $4.1 billion in January, following an increase of $41.6 billion in December. In January,a decline in private-sector average weekly hours more than offset increases in employment and in average hourlyearnings.
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,400
800
4001989
im1990
I M I I I I I I I I
1991
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
\WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
\OTHER INCOME
-VTRANSFER PAYMENTS
1992 1993
M i l l1994 1995
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
MOO
800
I I I t 1 I H I I I
* SEASONAILT ADJUSIH} A^NUAL RA1ESSOURCE 0&*jrM&U Of COMWSICE
1996i M I I I M I M 400
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVBStS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996'1996: Jan
1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensa-tion of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance andthe excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,4 With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payment*.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEAccording to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annualrate of 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 1996.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' |RAnO SCALE) BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' [RATIO SCALE!
1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and peraonal transferpayments to rest of the world (net).
2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
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FARM INCOMEIn the second quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $12.3 billion (annualrate) and net farm income rose $5.1 billion.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)280240
200
160
280
160
60
4
V p
1i »
I "\ '\_j
1982
^"^
\
' R J> in1 Ml1 | if
•l
i i i1983
y-
K i"\1 \/1
1 1 1
1984
N_^\xv ^—/T^^1
r 1u
/i**v/
1 ' *1985
*UbSrAt
'\ /l\ 1
k ' \'1» '
1986
\
\J
i i i1987
tt
^ y
\/\
"" ~~^~
'-/
NET FARM INCO/v
i i i
1988
1 1 1
1989
~^~-^
\ /
€
i i i
1990
' "
,
N>
i t i
1991
r^~^>
i i i
1992
, , -*
x^ /\'.
i i i
1993
p. •
\ x*
> i t1994
j. ~^>
\A'
.1995
c
s1
i i t1996
• SEASONAUY AQJUSIH) HUM HA1ES
120
80
60
20
10
COUNdlOf ECONOMIC ADVBBB
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms,
2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at aver-age prices during the year.
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to
annual data in table.Sources: Department of Agriculture.
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CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter of 1996, corporate profits before tax fell $9.0 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell$5.9 billion.
BIlUONSOf DOUARS BILUONS OF DOUARS
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SEASONAU.Y AOJUSTH3 ANNUAL RATES
A./
\ JPROFTTS BEFORE TAX ./\ f
s-
^
1
- r\^—^
~ — _
-—.
i i (1982
SOUKfcDB*
7,'
S ^.~-'f
< ( t
1983
UTTMENTOFC
V.
— N.
1 1 f
1984
XMMERCE
. x->
--->
( I 1
1985
^~/
V.-.-.'
v ,
1986
^'
*•"
,.-'
/' UNI
1987
S
PRC
».-•''"
KasTRBur
1988
r\ /^
MfrTSAFTE
's..—
V j
DPROfil
1989
RTAXs—~~
TAXI
^'
>
t I I
1990
r —
"•*•-'
1ABIUTY\
""*—'*
I I 1
1991
V
'V
' \'' \ f
\ f•r ,
\ \ 1
1992
/
^s
S"-*
f\
i l l
1993
J
S
S
V
^
^
/
1 I 1
1994
GOUN3
r
,--*•'
~.^-
i t i1995
LOFKXMQA
Pn-------
'" —
/-.*---
1996
mCAWEBB
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
ISO
100
50
0
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
198819891990199119921993199419951996P1991: IV1992: IV
1993: IIImIV
1994- IHIIIIV
1995- IIImIV
1996- IIIinWe
Profits (before tax) with inventoiy valuation adjustment l
1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.z Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
3 Includes industries not shown separately.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTIn the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)dollars rose $104 billion (annual rate) and residential Investment fell $0.2 billion. There was an increase of $16.4billion in inventories following an increase of $34.5 billion in the third quarter.
BIUIONS Of CHAINED (1992) OCULARS BIUJONS OF CHAINS) 11992) DOUARS
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
5£A5ON4UY,AflJUSTH>>U*JU4iR«ES
^^
1
, /•x
•x •*»»
— .~,-^
f \\
i i i1982
y
/•> __ *
__..s*
tf
f*
1 1 1
1983
f
^ "**s
* ™* "* N
i i i
1984
r — '
" •—* • *
1 1 11985
|X_yw-<~ r\
x*~?'
*"\\
v -.
I I l
1986
1 \ 1 1 KGROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
_ < • — •
INVES1
,~ — ~
RESIDENTLFIXED INVEST/
CHAM
,^ '*
t i i
1987
, \,
5EINBU.VENTORI
i t i
1988
MENT
"\
F
MItfNT
— .-
INESS
i t i
1989
•\--IONRESICKEDINVE
•^.^
_'\
V
1 f 1
1990
+~/~
STMENT
^ *
"
1991
y -
,_.— •
i i i1992
f/
~.~-'
i i i1993
r
^
*" •*
f —
1 I 1
1994
f^^*—
_„_
^
" — %X
1995
S
s~*• "*
>•»
1996
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
SOURCE DBWOMENr Of COMMHCE COUNCl Of ECONOMIC ADMSHS
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
19881989 .,199019911992 . . .19931Q<U1995IMfir
1991- TV1992: IV
19Q3. TnmIV
1994- InmIV
1995- In . ..inIV
199fi- TninTV'
Grossprivate
domesticinvestment
826.0861.9817.3737.7790.4857.3979.6
1,010.21,057.0
762.4812.4
834.8843.2857.6893.5
933.6984.8994.2
1,005.9
1,023.7996.8
1,015.21,004.9
1,011.91,038.61,093.41,084.3
Fixed investment
Total
818.3832.0805.8741.3783.4836.4921.1975.9
1,042.3
742.0805.8
815.4821.1835.4873.5
892.4911.4930.8949.7
969.5965.7980.0988.5
1,013.31,031.11,057.51,067.5
Nonresidential
Total
566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6
: 652.1714.3766.8
539.5569.1
577.5586.4593.1617.6
628.5639.5660.5679.7
704.4710.5719.0723.3
743.5750.5781.4791.8
Structures
196.8201.2203.3181.6169.2166.3168.8181.1189.9
171.4165.6
167.0164.8165.1168.2
163.0169.0169.1174.3
178.5180.0182.8183.2
186.6184.9188.6199.5
Producers'durable
equipment
369.2387.6381.9366.2388.7427.6484.1534.5578.7
368.1403.5
410.5421.7428.2449.8
466.4471.1492.5506.5
527.2531.7537.4541.4
558.3567.5595.0593.8
Residential
252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.8277.0
202.4236.7
•• 237.9234.8242.2255.8
263.6271.6270.3270.3
265.9256.5262.2266.3
271.1281.5277.8277.6
Change in businessinventories
Total
11.633.310.4
-3.07.3
19.158.933.113.7
21.45.8
18.520.819.517.4
40.574.564.556.1
54.530.533.014.6
-3.07.1
34.516.4
Nonfarm
24.733.57.8
-1.21.9
26.446.837.216.9
19.97.2
26.026.730.922.1
29.754.050.553.0
57.433.738.619.0
2.911.734.618.4
NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type.Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates
for the detailed components do not odd to the ehained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi-
ate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1 Includes other items, not shown separately.2 Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.3 Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDI', the chained (1992) dollarestimates for the detailed components do not adtl to the chained-dollar value of GDI1 or to anyintermediate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS[Bfflions of dollars]
Period
1993'
1994 2
1995 3
1996 4
Totalex-
pendi-tures "
489.7
549.9
594.5
603.4
By industry
Total
488.2
547.8591.7
600.7
Miningandcon-
struc-tion
31.2
36.136.0
33.6
Manufacturing
Total
134.1
153.3
172.3
184.8
Dura-ble
goods
66.4
78.991.4
100.2
Non-durablegoods
67.7
74.4
80.9
84.6
Trans-porta-tion
30.6
33.337.0
35.2
Com-muni-cations
37.141.5
46.0
46.3
Utili-ties
41.3
42.242.8
40.6
Whole-saleand
retailtrade
60.3
68.975.1
71.9
Pi-nance,insur-ance,andreal
estate
40.2
46.8
57.3
57.7
Serv-ices
111.8
123.5
123.7
129.4
Servingmul-tiple
indus-tries
1.7
2.2
1.5
1.3
Notdistrib-
utedby
indus-try
1.4
2.2
2.8
2.7
1 Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.a Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data Data for 1993 from Annual Capital Expenditure*: 1993.
are scheduled for release in summer 1996. The Business Investment and Hans release haa been discontinued effective with release of3 Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. Final data will the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will be available
be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.* Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey.
annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
10
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EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCEIn January, after adjusting for the effect of revised population controls, employment rose by 433,000 and unemploy-ment rose by 75,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
138
MILLIONS OF PERSONS *
138
1996 1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to findfulIUrae work, etc.
4 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods be-cause of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire.
2 Chilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and ^ NOTE.—Data beginning January 1997 reflect revised population controls. See Employmentunemployment as percent of Chilian labor force.
3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data.and Earnings, February 1997, for details.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
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SELECTED UNEMPLOtJ&f RATESIn January, the unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent, from 5.3 percent in December.
1 Kevised definition; for details, see Employment and Earning^ February 1994.2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
12
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SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCEPROGRAMSIn January, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27weeks and over rose; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemploymentrose to 16.0 weeks and the median duration fell to 7.7 weeks.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
70
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION •'
TO
50
40
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
JOB LOSERS-1'
1993
REENTRANTS
JOB LEAVERS
NEW ENTRANTS
M 111! Itll1994
M i nil I n 1 1 1 1 1 n1995 1996
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED3J BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JO» LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPtETED TEMPORARY JOBS.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally actuated, except as noted]
1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.2 Includes State (50 Stoles, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-serv-
icemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Alao in-cludes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplementalcompensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.
3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with daU for earlier periods.
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years of age and over (except for insured unemploy-ment and initial claims).
Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment and initial claims data revised beginning 19&4.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Ad-ministration).
13
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NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 271,000 in January.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
130
100
90
80
40
ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS
SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES
—
1' 1993
GOC)DS-PRODUC NGINDUSTRIES
I l l l l l l l l l l
1994
\Illllllllll
1995
Illllllllll
1996
—
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 11997 ^
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
34
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
1620
18
6
4
SERVICES
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
inn inn Illllllllll Illllllllll1993
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;J seasonally adjusted]
1 Includes all fall- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricnluiral establishmentswho received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludesproprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Totalin this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian laborforce, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes,bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one jobare counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, wherepersons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.
2 Includes mining:, not shown separately.Not*-.—Data for March 1996-August 1996 were revised in October 1996 to reflect revised
seasonal adjustment factors..Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
14
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AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGSPRIVATE NONAGHICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996J-1996- Jan
1 Employer costs for employee benefits.NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, tree
from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
Data exclude farm and household workers.
Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
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PRODUCTIVITY AND DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Period
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996P*
1993- IIImIV
1994- InmIV
1995. inmIV
1996- Inmr
iv*
198719881989199019911992199319941995igge**1993- I
nfflIV
1994- IIImIV
1995- IHinIV
1996- Inmr
IV*
Output per ho«r of alipersons
Businesssector
Nonfarmbusinesssector
Output1
Businesssector
Nonfarrabusinesssector
Hours of allpersons*
Businesssector
Nonfarmbusinesssector
Compensation perhour3
Businesssector
Nonfarrabusinesssector
Heal compensationper hour4
Businesssector
Nonfarmbusinesssector
Unit laboreosta
Businesssector
Nonfarrabusinesssector
Implicit pricedeflator5
Businesssector
Nonfarmbusinesssector
Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
94.194.695.396.196.7
100.0100.2100.7100.8101.9
100.299.8
100.0100.9
100.5100.6101.1101.1
100.4100.8101.2101.0
101.5101.8101.9102.5
94.695.295.796.296.9
100.0100.2100.7100.9101.7
100.199.7
100.1100.8
100.3100.6101.0101.1
100.5100.9101.3101.1
101.5101.7101.7102.2
91.194.697.898.796.9
100.0102.7107.0109.6113.0
101.4102.1102.8104.5
104.9106.7107.7108.7
108.8109.0110.3110.4
111.2112.6113.2114.8
91.495.198.198.897.1
100.0102.9107.0109.9113.1
101.6102.2103.3104.7
104.9106.7107.8108.8
109.0109.2110.6110.7
111.4112.8113.3114.9
96.8100.0102.5102.6100.2100.0102.5106.2108.8110.9
101.3102.3102.9103.5
104.4106.0106.6107.6
108.4108.2109.0109.3
109.6110.6111.1112.0
96.599.9
102.5102.7100.2100.0102.8106.3108.9111.2
101.4102.6103.2103.9
104.6106.1106.7107.6
108.4108.3109.1109.5
109.8110.9111.4112.4
79.983.585.890.795.1
100.0102.5104.5107.8111.8
101.7102.3102.8103.3
104.0104.2104.7105.5
106.2107.3108.3109.4
110.3111.4112.5113.5
80.283.685.990.695.1
100.0102.3104.3107.7111.6
101.5102.0102.5103.0
103.8104.1104.5105.4
106.2107.2108.2109.3
110.2111.3112.2113.2
98.799.097.197.497.9
100.099.599.099.2
100.0
99.699.599.699.3
99.599.098.698.8
98.898.999.399.8
99.899.9
100.2100.3
99.199.297.197.397.9
100.099.398.899.199.8
99.599.399.399.0
99.298.998.498.7
98.798.899.299.6
99.799.799.9
100.0
84.988.390.094.498.3
100.0102.3103.8106.9109.8
101.5102.6102.9102.4
103.6103.6103.6104.4
105.8106.5107.0108.3
108.6109.4110.4110.7
84.787.889.794.298.1
100.0102.1103.7106.7109.7
101.4102.4102.4102.2
103.4103.5103.5104.2
105.6106.3106.8108.1
108.5109.4110.3110.7
83.886.890.594.097.7
100.0102.5104.7107.1108.9
101.7102.3102.7103.3
103.9104.4105.1105.6
106.4106.9107.5107.8
108.2108.8109.2109.5
83.586.490.093.897.6
100.0102.5104.9107.2108.8
101.8102.4102.7103.3
103.9104.5105.3105.7
106.5107.1107,5107.8
108.1108.7109.0109.4
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
-0.2.5.8.8.6
3.4.2.5.1
1.0
-3.5-1.6
.83.8
-1.7.5
1.9.2
-2.61.41.4
-.6
2.11.2.3
2.4
-0.3.6.5.5.7
3.2.2.5.3.8
-3.8-1.8
1.72.8
-1.81.01.7.4
-2.31.51.8
-1.2
1.9.6
02.2
2.93.83.4.9
-1.83.22.74.22.53.0
-1.22.53.06.5
1.76.94.13.8
.3
.74.8.5
3.05.02.25.8
3.04.13.2.7
-1 83.02.94.02.72.9
-.92.74.15.5
.87.04.24.0
.6
.95.0.3
2.74.81.95.9
3.03.32.5.1
-2 3o
2.53.72.42.0
2.44.22.22.6
3.56.42.13.6
3.07
3.31.1
.83.81.93.4
3.23.52.6
.225-.22.83.52.42.1
3.04.62.42.6
2.76.02.43.6
2.96
3.21.5
.84.11.93.7
3.84.52.85.74.85.22.51.93.13.8
1.92.62.02.0
2.8.7
2.02.9
2.84.13.64.3
3.24.33.83.7
3.74.32.75.54.95.22.32.13.23.6
1.32.11.82.0
2.91.31.83.3
2.94.03.74.0
3.43.93.33.6
0.2.3
-2.0.3.6
2.1-.5-.6
.3
.8
-1.0-.3
.1-1.2
.8-1.8-1.7
.7
-.0.7
1.51.9
-.0.4
1.4.6
0.1.1
-2.1.1.7
2.1-.7-.5
.3
.7
-1.6-.8-.1
-1.1
.9-1.2-1.9
1.0
.1
.61.61.6
.2
.11.0.4
4.04.01.94.94.21.72.31.43.02.7
5.64.31.2
-1.8
4.6.2.1
2.8
5.62.62.15.0
1.13.13.41.3
4.03.72.15.04.21.92.11.52.92.9
5.24.0.1
-.7
4.9.3.1
2.9
5.32.51.95.2
1.53.33.31.4
2.73.54.24.03.92.42.52.22.31.6
3.52.51.32.4
2.41.82.72.0
3.02.22.01.0
1.52.41.31.1
2.63.44.24.24.12.42.52.32.21.5
3.82.11.22.5
2.52.22.91.9
3.02.01.7
.9
1.42.11.21.3
1 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees phis employers' contributions for social insurance and pri-
vate benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments forthe self-employed.
* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for aD urban consumers (CPI-U).5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
* Data based on GDI* data released January 31, 1997. Other data for 1996: IV shown else-where in this issue were released February 28, 1997.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
16
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production was unchanged in January; capacity utilization fell.
NDEX.1992. 100- (RATIOSCAli)140
130
120
no
130
120
no
100
140
130
120
110
100 14
TOTAL INDUSTMAL PRODUCTION
miiliimlmnliiiii innlmimiimi.iiii
MANUFACTURING
_ NONDURABLEi illliin ll ll n
UTIUriES AND MINING
imilTIES
1993 1997
INDEX, 1992 -100- (RATIO SCAIE)150
140
130
120
110
100
90
SO
70
FINAL PRODUCTS
BUSINESS -EQUIPMENT
^/
=CC^
"""""'N
iniiluiii
\,_.—
DEFENSEAND SPACEEQUIPMENT
t t t l t l t m i
\GCXXJS
^.^
'v
iiiiiiutii
yV^~"
^:
f-~ •* %..•
1miilnm
PERCENT*
88
86
84
32
80
78
CAPACITY UTIUZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)
_ S\
^^^~^-~r
n 1 1 1 In i M
1993
, , , , ,11994
p^^" ^^>
M i M In 1 1 11995
,A -~~n
Inin1996 ,
IM l l l l l l ,1997
COONOl Of ECONOMIC ADVBBO
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
1987 .1988 ..1989 ...1990 ...199119921993199419951996 r
1 Seasonally adjusted,2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993
data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.3The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.
NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. Por other data shown, unitsauthorized are for 17,000 places.
Seasonally adjusted housing starts, housing completions, and homes sold and for sale revisedbeginning 1994.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
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BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeIn December, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.2 percent and Inventories fell $1.7 billion. According to advancedata, retail sales rose 0.6 percent in January following a rise of 0.3 percent in December.
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200 I Im1993
.MANUFACTURINGAND TRADE SALES
1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 11994
I I M 1 t 1 1 1 1
1995
* SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOUKE aautlMENT Of COMMERCE
l l I I 1
1996M 1 1 1 1 M 1 1
BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATO SCAIE)400
350
300
250
200
150
RETAIL INVENTORIES
i ill M n 1 1 1
\RETAIL SALES
Ill
RATIO*1.80
1997
1.50
1.40
1.30
COJNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
19871988198919901991199219931994199519961"
1995: Dec'1996- Jan
FebMar
May
July
SeptOctNov'Dee**
1997- Jan'
Manufacturing andtrade1
Sales2 Inven-tories3
Wholesale
Sales2 Inven-tories3
Retail
Sales2
TotalDurablegoodsstores
Nondura-ble goods
stores
Inventories 3
TotalDurable
goodsstores
Nondura-ble goods
stores
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Annual data arc averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are sea-
sonally a<Uusted totals for month.
3 Seasonally atljusted, end of period.4 Annual data are averages of seasonally atljusted monthly ratios.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of tlie Onsus.
20
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MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS. INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn December, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders fell; unfilled orders rose slightly. In January,according to advance estimates, durable goods shipments and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS- (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
- SHIPMENTS -
DURABLE GOODS\
320
280
240
200
160
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
TOTAL
"LNONDURABLE GOODS
320
280
240
200
160
120
- NEW ORDERS
1993 1994
NONDURABLE GOODS
1995 1996
480440400360
320
280
240
200
1AO
120
80
— INVENTOI
~
1 M 1 1 ll 1 1 M
<IES
—
_..
DU
NON
1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
r-T~"~~~\
"V"\RABLEGOOD
"\ 1DURABLE OCX
M 1 H 1 1 1 1 1 1
OM»«B^ »~~
5
DOS
1 1 M 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 III 1 t H 1
1997
RATIO2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
K20
*
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
^x-»~—
1 M 1 I 1 1 H 1 1
1993
pv^._^
1 M t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1994
iiml
1995
"-V.
1 1 1 H 1 i t 1 1 1 immiiii1996 1997
COUNCB. OF ECONOMIC ADVB81S
Period
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996'
1995- Dec
1996: JanFebMar
May
July
SeptOctNovDec' .
1997: Janf
Manufacturers' shipments l
Total Durablegoods
Nondurablegoods
Manufacturers' inventories2
Total Durablegoods
Nondurablegoods
Manufacturers' new orders *
Total
Durable goods
Total
Capitalgoods
industries,nondefense
Nondurablegoods
Manufac-turers'uniilledorders2
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are sea-sonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
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PRICESPRODUCER PRICESThe producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.3 percent in January. Prices of finished consumer foodsfell 1.0 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Capital equipment prices werealso unchanged. (Seasonally adjusted data revised.)
1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing ami fceds.NOTE.-—Beginning 1996, indexes are based on updated value weighty.
Seasonally adjiMbMJ data rcvisM] beginning119.92.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics.
22
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CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.3percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.0 percent above its year-earlier level. (Seasonally adjusteddata revised.)
INDEX, 1982-84 . 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
170
160
120
110
100
SEASONMLY ADJUSTED
INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
1990 1991 1992 1993
I 1 1 1 1 i i i 1 11994
1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1
1995 1994
11(11 h i t 1 1
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
1001997
COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVESB
[1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gaa (piped), electricity, ftiel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc, excluded beginning 1983.3 Relative importance, December 1996.
NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for bomeownership costs (beginning1983).
Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1992.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
23
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CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period? monthly data seasonally adjusted, except aa noted by NSAJ
Period
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996*
1996: Jan'Feb'Mar'Apr1"May
Augr
Sept'Oct'NovDec'
1997' Jan
Change from preceding period
Totalfinishedgoods .
Consumer goods
FoodsExcluding
foods
eqnip-ment
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
2.24.04.95.7-.11.6.2
1.72.32.8
— 025.75.22.6
-1.51.62.41.11.93.4
4.13.15.38.7-.71.6
-1.42.02.33.7
1.33.63.83.42.51.71.82.02.2.5
Change, month to month
0.10.5.2.2.3
0.3.3.2.2.6
-.3
-0.2O
.8-.3
.21.4.1.7.4.7
0-.1
-1.0
0.30
.6
.5
.2— 2
.1
.2
.3
.2
.51.0
0
00.1
00.1
0.1.1
-.3.1.1
0
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Totalfinishedgoods
3.82.82.52.83.42.51.92.52.53.43.14.3
2.1
Consumer goods
Foods
4.1-1.2
1.51.22.85.36.99.14.67.14.22.4
-4.3
ISxchidingfoods
5.25.93.94.55.21.9.3.6
2.53.24.17.0
6.1
equip-ment
1.2-.3
.3
.3
.3
.6
.61.21.20-.3-.3
.9
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Totalfinishedgoods
2.82.83.33.33.12.52.33.02.52.62.83.4
2.8
Consumer goods
Foods
4.13.63.12.6.8
3.44.05.94.97.06.63.5
1.2
Excludingfoods
2.82.94.24.95.62.92.42.92.21.72.44.8
4.6
equip-ment
1.81.61.6
.70
.4
.4
.7
.9
.3
.4
.4
.4
Changefrom year
earlier,total
finishedgoodsNSA
2.12.55.24.92.11.21.2.6
1.92.7
2.22.02.42.42.32.72.63.03.03.03.02.8
2.5
NOTE.—See Note, p. 22. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except aa noted by NSA}
Period
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996
1996: Jan'Febr
Mar'.Apr'May
Augr
Sept'Get'
Dee'
1997- Jan
Allitems1 Food
Housing
Total1
Shelter
Total1Bent-era'costs
Home-own-era'
coats
andotherutili-ties
Ap-pareland
upkeep
Transportation
Total1 Newcars
Motorfuel
Medi-cal
careEner-gy2
Allitemslessfoodand
energy
Change, December to December, NSA
4.44.44.66.13.12.92.72.72.53.3
0.4.3.3.3.3.1.3.2.3.3.3.3
.1
3.55.25.65.31.91.52.92.92.14.3
3.74.03.94.53.42.62.72.23.02.9
0.3.3.4.2.2.7.5.4.5.5A
0
-.3
0.3.2.2.3.3.1.4.2.2.3.3.2
.3
4.84.54.95.23.92.93.03.03.52.9
3.93.94.56.74.22.82.62.33.03.4
0.3.2.2.2.2.2.5.1.2.3.2.2
.3
0.5.3.3.2.2.3.6.1.2.3.2.1
.6
5.34.75.14.73.72.93.23.33.72.8
1.62.93.24.02.92.32.5.2
1.44.6
4.84.71.05.13.41.4.9
-1.6.1
-.2
6.13.04.0
10.4-1.5
3.02.43.81.54.4
1.82.12.31.43.32.32.83.21.61.6
18.7-2.1
6.836.5
-16.01.8
-5.45.9
-4.012.7
Change, month to month
0.2.2.2.2.3.2.3.2.2.2.3.2
.2
0.4.4.2.6.3
-.2.5.5.3.5.5.5
.7
0.5— 6
.5-.2_ -1
-.3-.2-.9
.5
.2
.3
.1
.4
0.6.5.6
1.0.3
-.300.5.3.3.6
-.2
0.1.2.3.1.1.4.2.2.5
-.2-.2
.1
-.2
3.0-.12.84.7
.8-3.4-.5-.9-.11.61.72.5
.6
5.86.98.59.67.96.65.44.93.93.0
8.2.5
5.118.1
-7.42.0
-1.42.2
-1.38.6
4.24.74.45.24.43.33.22.63.02.6
0.3.3.2.3.3.3.3.2.3.2.3.2
.2
1.7.5
1.03.0.3
-2.0.3
-.2.2
1.11.21.5
.8
0.2.2.2.2.2.2.2.1.3.2.2.2
.1
Addendum: All items,percent change(annual rate)
Frompre-vious'quar-ter3
3~i
3~4
2"i
3.3
From3
monthsearlier
2.63.44.03.73.72.92.62.33.13.13.63.3
2.8
From6
monthsearlier
2.82.83.23.13.53.43.13.03.02.83.03.2
2.9
Fromyear
earlierNSA
3.64.14.85.44.23.03.02.62.83.0
2.72.72.82.92.92.83.02.93.03.03.33.3
3.01 Includes items not shown separately.3 Household ftiels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., excluded beginning 1983.3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
NOTE.—See Note, p. 23.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
24
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PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSIn February, prices received by farmers fefl 2.8 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data arenot seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)120
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCAIE)120
120
100
80
60
DATH-.
^ s^Xl
-
-
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1119)19
t "^
1 II M 1 1 M 1 1
19«fl
^ "—I
1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I I I1991
-"" — ^-
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1995
/ —
1 1 1 I 1 ! 1 i 1 1 f
IOC'S
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11QQ4
1 ~" "
i i i 1 E 1 I I I I I199.5
•+***** >—••.
M 1 M 1 ! 1 M 1
1OQA
"«• -
-
i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11997
120
100
80
60
J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVH> TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(1990-92=100; net seasonally adjusted]
Period
19871988198919901991199219931994 .19951996
1996: FebMarAprMayJune . . .July
SeptOctNovDec
1997: Jan ... .Feb
Prices received by farmers
All farmproducts
8999
10410410098
101100102112
106109108111118119117116112111110
108105
Crops
86104109103101101102105112127
123129128131140136133125119118116
'116113
Livestock andproducts
9193
100105
9997
100959299
9393939699
103103106103102103
'9898
Prices paid by farmers
All commodities,services, interest,taxes, and wage
rates1
87919699
100101104106110115
113114114115115115115115115115115
116116
Productionitems, interest,taxes, and wage
rates
87929799
100101102106109114
113114114114114114114114114113113
115115
Productionitems
87909599
100101103106109114
113114114115115116116116114114114
115115
Ratio2
102108108105999798949398
94969597
103103102101
979796
9391
1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,
taxes, and wage rates.
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The in-dexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
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MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESGrowth In M2 and in M3 slowed in January. (Series revised.)
BIUJONS OF DOtlARS* (RATIO SCAtE) BltUONS Of DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)5,200
4,400
3£QQ
800
600 i ! ! 1 1 1 1 H II
1989
.Ml — -— —
i i M 1 1 1 1 1 n1990
—- - -^
1 t 1 1 1 ) i i 1 t 1
1991
M3
x-^
t 1 1 1 1 1 i i t a
1992
\M2
-^<CMl
1993
t i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1994
t H i ) i 1 i t t I
1995
__.__,.— •-—
i \ 1 1 i ! i n i f
1996
i i t n 1 n M i
1997
5,200
4,400
4000
3600
800
600
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACMSQB
[Averages of daily fig-tires, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, Slate and local govern-ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
a Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 monthsearlier at a simple annual rate.
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Series revised to reflect annual benchmarking and seasonal adjustment revisions.
Sourc«; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
1 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not2 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more. shown here.3 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less S** Note, p. 26.
than #100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE[Averages of daily figures1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Period
1987- Dec1988- Dee1989- Dec1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec . .1993: Dec1994: Dec1995: Dec „1996: Dec
Borrowings of depository institu-tions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)
Total
7771,716
26532619212482
209257155
38352191
127386368334368287214155
45
Seasonal
931308476381831
1004068
77
1034
10519228430930621210968
19
Extendedcredit
4831,244
2023110000
000000000000
01 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKSTotal commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in January; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.5percent. (Series revised.)
274.51 Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically char-
tered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investmentcompanies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. -Data are ad-justed for breaks caused by reclassificationa of assets and liabilities.
2 Excludes Federal fdnds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans tocommercial banks in the United States,
Note.—Series revised to reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.
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SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends phis consumption of fixedcapita], foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.
2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fond liabilities, and direct foreign investmentin the U.S.
3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights fromU.S. Government
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.
CONSUMER CREDIT[Billions of dollars; seasonally Mjusted)
Period
1987- Dec1988- Dec3
1989- Dec . ..1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec1995- Dec1996- DecP1996- Jan
1 Bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues artiste! to constant maturities by the Treasury
Department3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures,4 Average effective rate Tor year; opening and dosing rate for month and week.
5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees andcharges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,Federal Housing Finance ftoanl, Moody*s Inventors Service, and Standard & Poor'sCorporation.
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COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices rose in February.
=::::::::1 Average of daily closing prices."Includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.3 Dec. 31, 1965-100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility
index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. AD indexes shown here reflectthe doubling.
4 Includes 30 stocks.'Includes 500 stocks.
•Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday dosing prices. Earn-ings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones k Company, Inc.* and Standard t Poor'sCorporation.
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FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1997, there was a deficit of $46.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $36.3 billiona year earlier.
1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget oftte United States Government, fiscal Year
1998, issued February 6, 1997.
Sources: Department of the Treasnry and Office of Management and Budget.
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FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY .SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1997, receipts were $29.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $39.3billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILUONS OF DOLLARS/oo
500
400
0
RECEIPTS^
CORPORATIONINCOME TAXES
C
1 1 I I I
_. 700
— •===- -' 500
HI \ , 400SOCIAL INSURANCE
1 AXES AND CON IkiBUIKJNi 300
, OTHER-RECEIPTS , ( ^
1x400
300200
CXJTIAYS-"
^^
~~~~~~~
_—""""'****— —
X| 1 I I I I 1 1 t 1 K
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
>NOUDESt>4*JDGETANDOFHUDGErnEMS. RSCALYEARS5OUBKD6WnMB«OFTWlTiaWUIflrANDa^ GOUNOL OF ECONOMIC AEMSBtS
NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal YearISSS, issued February 6, 19ST.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
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FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter of 1996, Federal receipts rose $6.3 billion (annual rate) and Federal current expenditures rose$0.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $21.0 billion;receipts data are incomplete.
BltUONS OF DOOMS RILUONS Of DOLLARS
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
5EASONAUY ADJUSTS) A»«Wa HOES
•
CURRENT EXPENDITURES
-
-
i • i
-
~\.
i i i1982
^ '
«*--*
i i i1983
--"*
^^
— -— x
I 1 11984
-*
•N
1 I l1985
C
—-_,/"
I'M 1
1986
^ — **
s^
JRRENTS
s —
1 1 11987
r--'
RECEIPTS
JRPUISO
\_|
^_
1 1 1
1988
.
R DEFICIT
~ -.
i l l1989
,.-">
^-
-I
. ^
i i I
1990
f
— . •
^^v,
1 1 11991
^-~
-^/~
" —I I I1992
_-•"
^
^~^
i i I1993
/"
•**-
i i i1994
—/— "
*-
i i i1995
----
S~
-
-
-
-
-
^~
i i i
1996
1,800
1,600
1,400
J.200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
SOURCE CBWnMBJT OF CQMMSCS COUNO. Of ECONOMIC
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally actfusted annual rates]
Period
Calendar yean1990199119921993199419951996'
1991: IV1992- IV
1993: IIIHIIV .. ..
1994- IninIV
1995- IifmIV . ..
1996- Inm • . .IVr
Federal Government receipts
Total
1,129.81,149.01,198.51,275.31,377.01,478.4
1,160.91,230.5
1,225.21,271.31,280.31,324.4
1,321.91,382.81,387.11,416.3
1,449.31,483121,486.61,494.7
1,523.11,575.61,581.9
Personaltax andnontaxreceipts
485.7476.9490.8523.6561.4614.9673.2
479.0510.0
501.0521.0529.1543.4
539.3571.3560.4574.5
594.6624.4617.3623.3
639.6681.4680.2691.5
Cor-porateprofitstax ac-cruals
118.0109.8118.6137.5164.4184.3
111.1123.7
127.5136.5133.7152.2
144.3162.2171.3180.0
183.1180.7189.1184.3
196.4199.0196.5
Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals
65.179.781.988.292.691.290.5
82.886.5
84.387.587.293.7
92.89i:393.393.2
91.793.588.491.3
84.483.285.7
108.7
Contri-butions
for, socialinsur-ance
461.1482.6507.1526.0558.6588.0
. 615.2
488.1510.3
512.4526.2530.3535.1
545.5558.1562.1568.6
579.9• 584.6
591.8595.9
602.6612.0619.4626.8
Federal Government current expenditures
Total
1,284.51,345.01,479.41,530.91,567.31,640.11,701.7
1,399.81,509.5
1,509.71,521.51,534.71,557.7
1,534.61,552.51,575.71,606.4
1,621.91,644.31,645.01,649.3
1,678.31,702.31,702.61,723.6
Con-sump-tion
expen-di-
tures
426.6445.9451.0451.9450.7453.8458.8
440.5457.7
451.3448.5453.5454.3
446.7445.1455.7455.3
454.6455:6453.6451.4
453.6463.5461.3456.8
Trans-fer
pay-,ments
513.3522.2625.1659.1682.9719.9764.1
565.8643.3
645.9654.7660.8675.0
670.9676.4683.5700.9
708.3716.2724.2730.9
756.2757.9762.9779.6
Grants-in-aid
toStateandlocal
govern-1
ments
132.4153.4172.2185.7195.9206.1214.6
162.7176.3
177.3181.5187.2197,0
192.2197.5196.9196.9
205.8211.3203.8203.3
207.6219.3214.5216.8
Netinterest
paid
179.9192.7195.8192.3201.4229.1233.3
200.0191.8
190.5193.2192.7192.8
188.3198.3204.3214.8
220.9229.3232.3233.9
230.5230.8233.7238.3
Subsi-dies lesscurrentsurplus
ofGovern-
mententer-prises
32.430.835.141.836.431.330.9
30.940.3
44.743.640.538.6
36.535.335.238.5
32.332.031.129.9
30.430.830.332.1
Less:Wageaccru-als less
dis-burse-ments
0.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Currentsurplus
ordeficit(-),
nationalincome
andproductaccounts
-154.7-196.0-280.9-255.6-190.2-161.7
-238.8-279.0
-284.5-250.2-254.4-233.3
-212.7-169.6-188.5-190.1
-172.6-161.1-158.5-154.5
-155.2-126.7-120.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Period
198719881989 . .1990199119921993199419951996i>
1995- Dec
1996- JanFdjMar
May
July
SeptOct .NovDec
1997: Jan*
Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted)
1 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.2 Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.
NOTE,—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis, BOP datashown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).
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U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the third quarter of 1996, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $51.6 billion, from $47.0 billion in the secondquarter. The current account deficit rose to $48.0 billion, from $40.2 billion in the second quarter.
1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.2 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expend-
itures (imports).
3 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.* Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs.
See p. 3? for continuation of table.
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U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $32.5 billion in the third quarterof 1996, following almost no change in the second Quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S.banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $0.3 billion In the third quarter, following an increase of $1.9 billionin the second quarter.
BUQNSOFDOUARS* BILUONSOFDOUARS-
COUNCl OF ECONOMIC «M5BS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
5 Consists of gold, fipecial drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.
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ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME. AND SPENDING ***•
Gross Domestic Product 1Real Gross Domestic Product 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product 2Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes 3Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Real Personal Consumption Expenditures . 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits > 8Real Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Real Private Fixed Investment by Type 10Business Investment and Plans 10
EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Employment Cost Index—Private Industry 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates , , , 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade , , 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21
PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25
MONEY. CREDIT. AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base 27Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfmancial Corporate Business 29Consumer Credit 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields , 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31
FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries , 35U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services 35U.S. International Transactions 36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:
f Preliminary.••Revised.e Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign).
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