When Will the Market Growth for MEMS (Micro- Electronic Mechanical Systems) Accelerate? 5 th Session in MT5009 Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
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Economic Feasibility of Micro-Electronic Mechanical Systems (MEMS)
These slides discuss the potential for an acceleration in the rate of growth for MEMS. Just as ICs benefited from reductions in scale and increases in the number of transistors per chip, some applications for MEMS also benefit from such reductions in scale and thus are likely to experience rapid growth as certain problems are solved.
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When Will the Market Growth for MEMS (Micro-
Electronic Mechanical Systems) Accelerate?
5th Session in MT5009
Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology Management
National University of Singapore
For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?
3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that
Biological Materials Ink jet printing can be used to print all the components that make up
a tissue (cells and matrix) to generate structures analogous to tissue (bio printing)
Smaller feature sizes on these MEMS enable better resolution of tissue
1 pico liter volumes have 10 micron feature sizes, which is about the size of a cell
Need the right material, bio-reactor, and the ejection of the bio-material may adversely impact on the cell
This can also be done with 3D printers, but are they experiencing rapid rates of improvement?
Sources: Brian Derby, Printing and Prototyping of Tissues and Scaffolds, Science 338, 16 Nov 2012, p 921. Thermal Inkjet Printing in Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine, Xiaofeng Cui, Thomas Boland, Darryl D. D’Lima, and Martin K. Lotz
Outline
What is MEMS and what are the applications?
MEMS and Moore’s Law (Benefits of scaling)
Challenges for MEMS
Example of micro-gas analyzers
Example of MEMS for Ink Jet Printer
Example of MEMS for filters and other components for mobile
phone chips
Improvements in MEMS make new forms of electronic systems
possible
Conclusions
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
Mass is function of length (L), width (W), and h (height); Q is amplification factor,
V is voltage; d is distance between bottom of beam and underlying material
Scaling of Mechanical Resonator
Operates slightly different from guitar string
Calculations show that frequency rises as 1/L2
Replacing anchored beam with free-free beam and reducing L
(length) to 2 microns, W and H to nano-dimensions, causes
frequency to rise to above 1 GHz
Inexpensive mechanical resonators can replace electrical filters
Which also enables the use of multiple filters and thus communication
at many frequency bands (and thus cognitive radio)
There is no theoretical limit to reducing sizes and thus increasing
frequencies
Source: EE C245/ME C218: Introduction to MEMS, Lecture 2m: Benefits of Scaling I
Making Resonators with semiconductor processes/equipment
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
But calculations show that disks scale better than do beams or springs
(t = inner
radius)
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
Multiple Disks Provide Better Performance
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures; RF BPF: radio frequency bypass filter
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
RF = radio frequency; SAW = surface acoustic wave: VCO: voltage controlled oscillators
Other Discrete Components can also be Replaced by Smaller
MEMS components
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures
Another
application
for MEMs
in
phones,
GPS,
and
other
devices
Outline
What is MEMS and what are the applications?
MEMS and Moore’s Law
Challenges for MEMS
Example of micro-gas analyzers
Example of MEMS for Ink Jet Printer
Example of MEMS for filters and other components for mobile
phone chips
Improvements in MEMS make new forms of electronic systems
possible
Conclusions
Improvements in MEMS make new
forms of electronic systems possible
Some systems were discussed in the previous session
Others include
Oil and Gas Drilling, Internet of Things
3D scanners, printers, holographic displays, eye-tracking devices
autonomous vehicles for land, undersea, in space, and other applications
More big data analysis
better health care and management of buildings, dams, bridges,
power plants……..
Improvements in other components such as lasers are needed before these systems become economically feasible
Fracking and Modern Day Drilling
Drilling has changed……….
Better sensors, ICs, control
monitors, joy sticks, other
controls, and horizontal drilling
Along with chemical based
slurries that are pumped into the
ground to break up shale
The US will probably be a net
energy exporter in a few yearshttps://www.rigzone.com/training/insight.asp?insight_id=292&c_id=24
Pre-Fab Housing from DIRTT
http://www.dirtt.net/
No screws, nails, snap fits
change dimensions of one part, automatically changes
Sources from last slideA highly popular article on Slashdot and Reddit Futurologymakes note that the Google driverless car has not gotten a traffic ticket after driving 700,000 miles. Local government revenue in the USA was $1.73 trillion in 2014. So the traffic tickets make up 0.38% of the local government revenue.
Self driving cars could save $500 billion in the USA from avoided crashes and traffic jams and can boost city productivity by 30% of urban GDP after a few decades enabling larger and denser cities. So traffic tickets are 1.2% of the $500 billion from avoided crashes and traffic jams in the US. It is even less worldwide with more crashes and traffic jam costs. It is 0.15% of the 30% of urban GDP. In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, killing 32,885 and injuring 2,239,000 in the United States. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 33,561 people died in
motor vehicle crashes in 2012, up 3.3 percent from 32,479 in 2011. In 2012, an estimated 2,362,000 people were injured in motor vehicle crashes, up 6.5 percent from 2,217,000 in 2011. In 2012, the average auto liability claim for property damage was $3,073; the average auto liability claim for bodily injury was $14,653. In 2012, the average collision claim was $2,950; the average comprehensive claim was $1,585. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says in 2010 that the cost of medical care and productivity losses associated with motor vehicle crash injuries was over $99 billion, or nearly $500, for each licensed driver in the United States. All car crash costs in the USA are estimated at $400 billion per year. In 2013, worldwide the total number of road traffic deaths remains unacceptably high at 1.24 million per year
Traffic Congestion $100 billion cost in the USAIn the USA, using standard measures, waste associated with traffic congestion summed to $101 billion of delay and fuel cost. The cost to the average commuter was $713 in 2010 compared to an inflation-adjusted $301 in 1982 Sixty million Americans suffered more than 30 hours of delay in 2010 1.9 billion gallons of fuel were wasted because of traffic congestion Traffic congestion caused aggregate delays of 4.8 billion hours. Transport 2012.org puts
a 200 billion Euro price tag on congestion in Europe (approximately 2% of GDP). Central America also has its traffic woes. Let’s not forget other countries. On the weekend, Panama found that the price of congestion for business and the community was somewhere between $500 million-$2 billion annually. According to the Asian Development Bank, road congestion costs economies 2%–5% of gross domestic product every year due to lost time and higher transport costs.
More traffic density and Larger, More Productive City populations can boost GDP by 30%
Google told the world it has developed computer driving tech that is basically within reach of doubling (or more) the capacity of a road lane to pass cars. Pundits don’t seem to realize just how big a deal this is – it could let cities be roughly twice as big, all else equal. Seminal work by Ciccone and Hall
(1996) assessed the impacts of density on productivity in the US, and found that doubling employment density, and keeping all other factors constant, increased average labor productivity by around 6%. Subsequent work by Ciccone (1999) found that in Europe, all other things being equal, doubling employment density increased productivity by 5%. A third paper (Harris and Ioannides, 2000) applies the logic directly to metropolitan areas and also finds a 6% increase in productivity with a doubling of density. More recent work by Dan Graham (2005b, 2006) examines the relationship between increased effective density (which takes into account time travelled between business units) and increased productivity across different industries. Graham finds that across the whole economy, the urbanisation elasticity (that is, the response of productivity to changes in density) is 0.125. This means that a 10% increase in effective density, holding all other factors constant, is associated with a 1.25% increase in productivity for firms in that area. Doubling the density of an area would result in a 12.5% increase in productivity. Economist Robin Hanson noted that doubling the population of
any city requires only about an 85% increase in infrastructure, whether that be total road surface, length of electrical cables, water pipes or number of petrol stations. This systematic 15% savings happens because, in general, creating and operating the same infrastructure at higher densities is more efficient, more economically viable, and often leads to higher-quality services and solutions that are impossible in smaller places. Interestingly, there are similar savings in carbon footprints — most large, developed cities are ‘greener’ than their national average in terms of per capita carbon emission. Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.
Transportation of medical and other supplies with propeller driven drones that use batteries and a distributed network of charging stations
How about using solar power for drones that provide satellite services (economist, the west wind blows afresh, August 30, 2014) Easier to launch than satellites
Lower altitudes reduces cost of optics
How about underwater drones, perhaps for managing fish farms http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/tech/innovation/underwater-drones/index.html?hpt=te_t1
“Big Data” Analysis was Discussed in Session 3
What kinds of software and hardware will emerge that enable more
extensive data analysis of output from
Particle accelerators, telescopes
DNA sequencing equipment,
other types of scientific and medical equipment
What kinds of mathematical models will be the basis for this
hardware and software so as to make predictions, rather than
pursue more efficient algorithms
better translations
better predictions of flu trends, inflation, health problems, loan
defaults, rising food prices, and even social problems such as riots or
terrorism
Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think, Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, Kenneth Cukier
Sensors Enable More Types of “Big Data”
Analysis and System Control
Higher resolution camera chips
Better MEMS (micro-electronic mechanical systems)
Better camera chips, ICs and other sensors enable better process control and better collection of data, extending the Internet to more devices
What types of hardware and software will emerge that will enable better traffic management
Traffic sensors, smart cards, better fare management
Predictive analytics with better computers
Navigation systems with better ICs and MEMS
Goal should be to dramatically reduce public and private vehicle breakdowns and accidents
These systems may have larger impact on energy usage than will
improvements in batteries
Sensors will enable new systems and improvements to existing systems
Mobile Phones Enable Greater Access and
Control of Sensors
Wireless Access and Control of Sensors Environmental (temperature, pressure, gas content)