ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA CONSIDERATIONS FOR SCHOOL PLANNING & FUNDING February 4, 2016 FEFPA Florida Educational Facilities Planners' Association, Inc.
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ECONOMIC & DEMOGRAPHIC DATA CONSIDERATIONS FOR SCHOOL PLANNING & FUNDINGFebruary 4, 2016
FEFPAFlorida Educational Facilities Planners' Association, Inc.
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Economics2
Introduction/Key Considerations1
3 Demographics
4 Summary
2
Critical Issues for School DistrictsRate of GrowthType of GrowthDemographic RankUnique Issues
State legislation, new growth, location of growth, lumpy/large investments, long development cycle, expensive costs
INTRODUCTION: CRITICAL ISSUES3
State Mandated Level-of-Service
Class Size Reduction Amendment
In 2014-15, about 10 district experienced financial
penalty
INTRODUCTION:CRITICAL ISSUE - STATE LEGISLATION 4
School Districts are the largest employers in the county.
School Districts have the largest transportation fleet in the county.
Florida is an unfriendly state regarding injuries and deaths to pedestrian and bicyclist.
INTRODUCTION: UNIQUE ISSUES5
School siting can be controversialHigh schools most difficult
Must get in front of developmentHigh cost
Opposition high late in development cycle
Coordination with local operating agencies critical
6INTRODUCTION: UNIQUE ISSUES
Many capital assets require one year cycle to construct.Schools can take from 3 to 7 years from planning to opening.Planning a school must occur before demand occurs to meet standards.Capital investment required well before taxes/impact fees are collected.
7INTRODUCTION: UNIQUE ISSUES
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Economics2
Introduction/Key Considerations1
3 Demographics
4 Summary
8
EconomicsCost
Revenue
ECONOMICS & DEMOGRAPHICS9
DemographicsGrowth
Location
Student Generation
10
ECONOMICS: COSTS
Expensive Infrastructure
School Infrastructure Is Very Expensive
And high operating costs…
11
Other*, 5%
Schools, 25%Parks, 10%
Transportation, 60%
*Other = Fire/EMS, Correctional, Law Enforcement, Public Bldgs, Solid Waste, Libraries
80-90%
ECONOMICS: COSTS
School Infrastructure Is Very Expensive
ECONOMICS: COSTS
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Cons
truc
tion
Cost
/GSF
All School Types - Construction Cost/GSF TrendAll School Types
Linear (AllSchool Types)
12
Elementary Schools: $25 millionMiddle Schools: $40 millionHigh Schools: $75 million
Investment in Capacity is Expensive
ECONOMICS: COSTSSIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT 13
Equivalency in recognizing costsElementary: $25,000,000Fire Station: $2,500,000
Building one elementary school is equivalent to building 10 fire stationsOne high school equivalent to 30 fire stations
“Lumpy”, “Complex” Investments
ECONOMICS: COSTSLUMPY/LARGE INVESTMENT 14
15
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Population Growth Rate Trend; 3-yr Average - 1970-2040Sarasota County
Orange County
Florida
Major Infrastructure
Investment
Infrastructure is 30 years old
ECONOMICS: COSTSINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
Source: BEBR; Medium Level Projections
ECONOMICS: COSTSOPERATING COSTS 16
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
Operating Budget per Student
≈ $4,000 per Student
≈ $12,000 per Student
Source: Florida Dept. of Education; Funding and Financial Report
≈70% of Districts between $7,000 & $8,500
17
ECONOMICS: FUNDING
Funding
PRIMARY REVENUE SOURCES
Ad ValoremOperating vs. Capital
Local Option Sales TaxCapital
State ContributionsOperating & Capital
Impact FeesCapital Expansion
18
ECONOMICS: FUNDING SCHOOL FUNDING
19
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Dixi
eU
nion
Calh
oun
DeSo
toHa
rdee
Tayl
orGl
ades
Brad
ford
Mad
ison
Levy
Hend
ryO
keec
hobe
eHa
milt
onBa
ker
Holm
esGi
lchr
istW
ashi
ngto
nLa
faye
tte
Putn
amSu
wan
nee
Libe
rty
Colu
mbi
aJa
ckso
nGu
lfHe
rnan
doHi
ghla
nds
Fran
klin
Gads
den
Citr
usM
ario
nW
akul
laJe
ffers
onO
sceo
laPo
lkSt
. Luc
ieCh
arlo
tte
Lake
Pasc
oVo
lusia Ba
yN
assa
uFl
agle
rCl
ayEs
cam
bia
Wal
ton
Lee
Mia
mi-D
ade
Sum
ter
Duva
lSa
nta
Rosa
Brev
ard
Indi
an R
iver
Man
atee
Oka
loos
aPi
nella
sM
onro
eHi
llsbo
roug
hBr
owar
dO
rang
eSa
raso
taM
artin
Colli
erPa
lm B
each
Sem
inol
eAl
achu
aSt
. Joh
nsLe
on
Inco
me
per C
apita
Edut
atio
nal A
ttai
nmen
t Per
cent
age
Education Levels vs. Income per Capita
Bachelor's Degree or Higher Income per Capita
ECONOMICS: FUNDING EDUCATION VS. INCOME
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
20
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Uni
onHo
lmes
Libe
rty
Calh
oun
Gad
sden
Lafa
yett
eJa
ckso
nBa
ker
Dixi
eBr
adfo
rdW
akul
laW
ashi
ngto
nM
adiso
nSu
wan
nee
Colu
mbi
aG
ilchr
istO
keec
hobe
eLe
vyJe
ffers
onDe
Soto
Polk
Hern
ando
Mar
ion
Pasc
oCl
ayG
lade
sHi
ghla
nds
Esca
mbi
aHe
ndry
Putn
amAl
achu
aSa
nta
Rosa
Leon
Lake
Brev
ard
Volu
siaHa
rdee
Hills
boro
ugh
Ham
ilton
St. L
ucie
Tayl
orDu
val
Citr
usSe
min
ole
Osc
eola
Pine
llas
Flag
ler
Ora
nge
Oka
loos
aCh
arlo
tte
Man
atee
Brow
ard
Sum
ter
Mia
mi-D
ade
Bay
Gul
fN
assa
uLe
eSt
. Joh
nsIn
dian
Riv
erPa
lm B
each
Sara
sota
Mar
tinFr
ankl
inCo
llier
Wal
ton
Mon
roe
Inco
me
per C
apita
Taxa
ble
Valu
e pe
r Cap
ita
Taxable Value per Capita vs. Income per Capita
Taxable Value per Capita Income per Capita
Sarasota
OrangeLake
ECONOMICS: FUNDING TAX REVENUES VS. INCOME
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Florida Property Valuations and Tax Databook
ECONOMICS: FUNDING TAXABLE VALUE PER CAPITA 21
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
Taxable Value per Capita
Orange Sarasota FloridaSource: Florida Property Valuations and Tax Databook
ECONOMICS: FUNDINGSCHOOL CAPITAL OUTLAY SURTAX 22
= 0.5% Levy (16)
= Eligible to Levy, but have not (51)
Source: Local Government Financial Information Handbook
ECONOMICS: FUNDINGLOCAL GOV’T INFRASTRUCTURE SURTAX 23
= 1.0% Levy (16)
= 0.5% Levy (2)
= Eligible to Levy, but have not (49)
Source: Local Government Financial Information Handbook
24
Source: BEBR and the Local Government Financial Information Handbook
ECONOMICS: FUNDINGSCHOOL CAPITAL OUTLAY SURTAX
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Uni
onLi
bert
yG
lade
sLa
faye
tte
Gilc
hrist
Ham
ilton
Dixi
eHo
lmes
Calh
oun
Mad
ison
Jeffe
rson
Gad
sden
Wak
ulla
DeSo
toHa
rdee
Was
hing
ton
Bake
rCi
trus
Hend
ryLe
vyPu
tnam
Suw
anne
eG
ulf
Jack
son
Sant
a Ro
saFl
agle
rCl
ayHi
ghla
nds
Brad
ford
Hern
ando
St. L
ucie
Sum
ter
Tayl
orM
ario
nPa
sco
Brev
ard
Colu
mbi
aO
keec
hobe
eAl
achu
aPo
lkLa
keSt
. Joh
nsN
assa
uSe
min
ole
Leon
Fran
klin
Volu
siaEs
cam
bia
Indi
an R
iver
Pine
llas
Osc
eola
Char
lott
eLe
eM
anat
eePa
lm B
each
Brow
ard
Mar
tinHi
llsbo
roug
hO
kalo
osa
Duva
lSa
raso
taM
iam
i-Dad
eCo
llier Bay
Wal
ton
Ora
nge
Mon
roe
School Capital Outlay Surtax (0.5%) per Capita= County has adopted 0.5% School Capital Outlay Surtax (16)
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Economics2
Introduction/Key Considerations1
3 Demographics
4 Summary
25
Cohort MethodIgnores development activity
Important to Review Trends in:Population
Total versus Seasonal
Age DistributionStudent Generation Levels
Traditional vs. Charter/Other
Planned/Proposed Developments
DEMOGRAPHICS: STUDENT GENERATION RATES
26
Population Data
27
Projected Housing
Units
Student Generation
Rates
Elementary School Students
Middle School Students
High School Students
DEMOGRAPHICS:PLANNING METHODOLOGY
28
DEMOGRAPHICS
Do You Know Your Rank?
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Brad
ford
Calh
oun
Fran
klin
Ham
ilton
Libe
rty
Lafa
yett
eGl
ades
Hard
eeJe
ffers
onO
keec
hobe
eW
ashi
ngto
nU
nion
Gad
sden
Dixi
eHe
ndry
Tayl
orJa
ckso
nPu
tnam
Holm
esM
adiso
nG
ilchr
istSu
wan
nee
Bake
rLe
vyCo
lum
bia
Gulf
High
land
sW
akul
laDe
Soto
Mon
roe
Citr
usHe
rnan
doM
artin
Flag
ler
Nas
sau
Oka
loos
aBa
yCh
arlo
tte
Esca
mbi
aIn
dian
Riv
erM
ario
nAl
achu
aCl
aySt
. Luc
ieSe
min
ole
Wal
ton
Sant
a Ro
saLe
onBr
evar
dVo
lusia
Pine
llas
Sara
sota
Brow
ard
Lake
Polk
Sum
ter
Pasc
oSt
. Joh
nsO
sceo
laDu
val
Man
atee
Colli
er Lee
Palm
Bea
chHi
llsbo
roug
hM
iam
i-Dad
eO
rang
e
2014 Residential Permitting (in Units)
Osceola
Lake
Sarasota
Volusia
Brevard
Collier
IRC
DEMOGRAPHICS: RESIDENTIAL PERMITTING 29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Orange
Palm Beach
DEMOGRAPHICS: RESIDENTIAL PERMITTING 30
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Single Family and Multi-Family Permitting (Units)
Sarasota Orange Lake
Orange
Sarasota
Lake
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
DEMOGRAPHICS:MEDIAN AGE & SGR 31
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.6000.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Leon
Alac
hua
Hend
ryHa
rdee
Ora
nge
Hills
boro
ugh
Osc
eola
Duva
lBa
ker
Lafa
yett
eLi
bert
yEs
cam
bia
DeSo
toSe
min
ole
Clay
Oka
loos
aM
iam
i-Dad
eO
keec
hobe
eW
akul
laSa
nta
Rosa
Gads
den
Uni
on Bay
Ham
ilton
Brow
ard
Calh
oun
Brad
ford
Colu
mbi
aPo
lkW
ashi
ngto
nM
adiso
nJa
ckso
nSu
wan
nee
Tayl
orHo
lmes
Gilc
hrist
Wal
ton
St. J
ohns
Fran
klin
St. L
ucie
Gulf
Putn
amGl
ades
Pasc
oPa
lm B
each
Nas
sau
Jeffe
rson
Levy
Volu
sia Lee
Brev
ard
Dixi
eM
anat
eeLa
kePi
nella
sM
onro
eFl
agle
rCo
llier
Mar
ion
Hern
ando
Indi
an R
iver
Mar
tinHi
ghla
nds
Sara
sota
Citr
usCh
arlo
tte
Sum
ter
Stud
ent G
ener
atio
n Ra
te
Med
ian
Age
Median Age vs. Student Generation Rate
Median Age Student Generation RateSource: U.S. Census Bureau
DEMOGRAPHICS: MEDIAN AGE & SGR 32
= 42 to 47 yrs old
= 47 to 65 yrs old
= 39 to 42 yrs old
= 30 to 39 yrs old
SGR
0.227
0.293
0.373
0.413
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
GIS-based approachMatch student addresses with PA DatabaseReview of SGR by:
Type of residential useSize of homeAge of homeLocation
DEMOGRAPHICS:STUDENT GENERATION RATES 33
Residential Tiering
DEMOGRAPHICS:STUDENT GENERATION RATES 34
Land Use Unit SGR
Single Family <1,500 sf du 0.397
Single Family 1,500-2,499 sf du 0.433
Single Family 2,500+ sf du 0.319
Townhouses du 0.225
Low-Rise Apts/Condos du 0.161
High-Rise Apts/Condos du 0.027
Palm Beach County
Land Use Unit SGR
Single Family <1,500 sf du 0.395
Single Family 1,500-2,499 sf du 0.453
Townhouse <1,500 sf du 0.262
Townhouse 1,500+ sf du 0.280
Multi-Family 0-600 sf du 0.113
Multi-Family 601-1,000 sf du 0.282
Multi-Family 1,001-1,500 sf du 0.402
Multi-Family >1,500 sf du 0.182
Condo 0-600 sf du 0.106
Condo 601-1,000 sf du 0.134
Condo 1,001-1,500 sf du 0.246
Condo >1,500 sf du 0.197
Seminole County
35
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Historical Enrollment
Orange County Sarasota County Lake County
Sarasota County
Orange County
Lake County
DEMOGRAPHICS:ENROLLMENT TRENDS
Source: Florida Dept. of Education
Source: U.S Census and the 2014 American Community Survey
36
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1990 2000 2010 2014
Ratio of Vacant Units to Total Units
Orange Florida Sarasota Lake
Sarasota County
Florida
Orange County
Lake County
DEMOGRAPHICS:VACANCY RATE TRENDS
37
DEMOGRAPHICS:SEASONAL HOUSING TRENDS
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1990 2000 2010 2014
Ratio of Seasonal Units to Total Units
Orange Florida Sarasota Lake
Source: U.S Census and the 2014 American Community Survey
DEMOGRAPHICS:CHARTER SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 38
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Ratio of Charter School Enrollment to Total Traditional School Enrollment
Orange County Sarasota CountySource: Florida Dept. of Education
DEMOGRAPHICS:STUDENT GENERATION RATES 39
0.469
0.252
0.368
0.150
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
Orange County Sarasota County
Wei
ghte
d Av
erag
e SG
R
New Homes vs. All Homes
2005-07 Homes All Homes
27% Difference
68% Difference
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: STUDENT CENTROIDS ELEMENTARY 40
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: STUDENT CENTROIDS ELEMENTARY 41
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: PLANNED DEVELOPMENT 42
New Growth
43
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT LEVELS
New Growth
44
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: CURRENT CAPACITY ELEMENTARY
45
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: FUTURE CAPACITY ELEMENTARY
46
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: FUTURE CAPACITY ELEMENTARY
Program Implementation = 5 New Schools
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%Annual Population Growth Rate Projections (2015-2040)
BEBR Florida Rapid Moderate Slow
47
60,000 Total Housing Units
SARASOTA COUNTY CASE STUDY: POPULATION GROWTH ELEMENTARY
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Economics2
Introduction/Key Considerations1
3 Demographics
4 Summary
48
Critical Issues for School DistrictsRate of GrowthType of GrowthDemographic RankUnique Issues
State legislation, new growth, location of growth, lumpy/large investments, long development cycle, expensive costs
49SUMMARY
Economics:ExpensiveState mandated LOSFunding options
Demographics:Planning Considerations
Trends in multiple variablesDevelopment activity
SUMMARY50
Q & A/ Discussion
51
Nilgün Kamp, AICPPrincipal/Director of Public Finance and Infrastructure Planning
Phone: (813) 224-8862E-Mail: [email protected]
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