Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU U.S. Department of Commerce 1 The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010 Demographic Analysis Estimates:

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

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The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010 Demographic Analysis Estimates: Incorporation of Data from Mexico’s 2010 Census

Melissa ScopillitiChief, Net International Migration BranchPopulation DivisionU.S. Census Bureau

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Demographic Analysis Compared to Survey-Based Estimates of Coverage

The U.S. Census Bureau has historically relied on two methods to measure coverage in the decennial census 1) Demographic analysis (DA)

– Macro (national) level– Comparisons between estimates and census counts

2) Post-enumeration survey (PES)– Micro level– Case-by-case record linkage– In 2010, demographic analysis sex ratios were used to

correct for correlation bias

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Purpose of the Demographic Analysis Program at the U.S. Census Bureau

• Produce estimates of the national population for comparison with decennial census counts– Estimates are produced by age, sex, and race

• Provide sex ratios to the post-enumeration survey program

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

2010 Demographic Analysis Releases

• Five series of estimates were released to the public in December 2010 (prior to the release of 2010 Census counts)– Different data and methods were used across the series

• A revised middle-series of estimates was released in May 2012 that incorporated more recent data and information from Mexico’s 2010 Census

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

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Development of the 2010 DA Estimates

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Difference Between Demographic Analysis Estimates and the Census Enumeration(Numbers in millions)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Popu

lati

on (i

n th

ousa

nds)

Age at Census

Range of DA 2010 Estimates Census 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010.

Census Counts and Demographic Analysis Range of Estimates: 2010

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970197

5

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Birth Cohort

1940 193

5 1930

2010

7

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Cumulative Total Net International Migration, 1945-2010(Numbers in millions)

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Components of Net International Migration: 2000 to 2010

• For 2010 Demographic Analysis, international migration research focused primarily on the 2000 to 2010 time period– Prior demographic analysis estimates were used for 1945

to 2000

• 2000 to 2010 international migration components:– Foreign-born immigration– Foreign-born emigration– Net native migration– Migration between Puerto Rico and the United States

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Foreign-Born Immigration• Response to a survey question asking “Where

did you live one year ago?”

• Response to a survey question asking “When did you come to live in the United States?”

• Alternative assumptions: – Margin of error around the survey-based estimates– Alternative assumptions of representation of the

foreign-born population in the survey

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

• Residual method based on data from life tables, an annual survey, and Census 2000

• Rates of emigration estimated by period of entry to the United States– Rates were applied to the foreign-born population in the

survey to develop annual estimates of emigration

• Alternative assumptions:– Margin of error around the survey-based estimates

using 90-percent confidence intervals to develop high and low estimates of emigration

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Foreign-Born Emigration

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Foreign-Born Emigration (Revised)• Revised middle series was released in 2012

– Included the use of data that was not available when the original series were released and methodological improvements

• Foreign-born emigration revision– Substantial migration flow between the United States and

Mexico– Data from Mexico’s 2010 Census suggested higher levels

of emigration from the United States to Mexico from 2005 to 2010 than in the original demographic analysis series

– The revised series incorporated information from Mexico’s 2010 Census

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

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Demographic Analysis Sex Ratios: 1990, 2000, and 2010

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Sex Ratios: Mexico’s 2010 Census (Born in Mexico, Lived in the United States in 2005) and 2010 DA Updated Middle Series (2005-2010 Foreign-Born Emigration to Mexico) Prior to Incorporation of Data from the Mexico Census

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Sex Ratios from Census 2010 and the Original and Revised 2010 DA Series

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

Future Research on International Migration• Continue to evaluate the data and methods for

estimating migration in our demographic analysis and annual postcensal population estimate programs.

• Update estimates of international migration for the post-2010 period.

• Continue to collaborate with colleagues in Mexico.

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Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

U.S. Department of Commerce

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Contact Information

Melissa Scopilliti: [email protected]

For more information on demographic analysis visitwww.census.gov Subjects A to Z: Demographic Analysis