International Session 2003 DB-1 ECMWF Weather Prediction and the use of weather data The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF David Burridge with help from A. Simmons, G. Kelly, J-N Thepaut, D. Marbouty, A. Thorpe, A. Lorenc, T. Palmer ……
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ECMWF International Session 2003 DB-1 Weather Prediction and the use of weather data The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF Weather.
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International Session 2003DB-1 ECMWF
Weather Predictionand the use of weather data
The European Centre forMedium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF
Weather Predictionand the use of weather data
The European Centre forMedium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF
David Burridge with help from A. Simmons, G. Kelly, J-N Thepaut,D. Marbouty, A. Thorpe, A. Lorenc, T. Palmer ……
International Session 2003DB-2 ECMWF
Annual means of the forecast range at which theanomaly correlation of 500 hPa forecasts first reaches The 60%, 655, 70%, 80%, 85% and the 95% levels for the Northern hemisphere (left panel) and theSouthern hemisphere (right panel).
International Session 2003DB-3 ECMWF
• Peaks beyond 500mm/day (670mm at Anduze)
• A large area with more than 200mm in 24h
• Early warnings were available
International Session 2003DB-4 ECMWF
International Session 2003DB-5 ECMWF
NOAA16 9 Sept. 2002 1220UTC
International Session 2003DB-6 ECMWF
Le Gardon à Collias
9 Sept 2002
11 Sept
International Session 2003DB-7 ECMWF
Forecast consistencyfive consecutive T511 forecasts valid at the same time
International Session 2003DB-8 ECMWF
T511 precipitation forecastscumulated over 24h and valid for: 20020908 18z to 20020909 18z
International Session 2003DB-9 ECMWF
CTRL
Prob.RRR>50mm
Prob. (area)RRR>50mm
Sa 7/9 Fr 6/9 Th 5/9 We 4/9 Tu 3/9
EPS precipitation probabilitiesvalid for TP cumulated over 24h: 20020908 18z to 20020909 18z
International Session 2003DB-10 ECMWF
S-France flood: Summary
A stationary convective system generates huge amounts of precipitation in a few hours ( ~ 600 mm/24h in some places) over a limited area.
The medium-range deterministic forecast is very consistent. The synoptic pattern is correctly forecasted already 5 days in advance. Good ability of the model to simulate the basic ingredients for severe convection.
EPS supports the deterministic forecast showing unusual high probability values. EFI index gives early warning but spread a large area.
International Session 2003DB-11 ECMWF
Precipitation accumulated over the Po' river catchmentarea predicted by the 51 EPS members started on2 November 1994 and run for 10 days (grey lines, cyan for the control)and the 6 nested LEPS members (violet lines, green for the control)started on 3 November and run for 3 days. The red line depicts thearea-average over the river-catchment computed from synoptic observations.
International Session 2003DB-12 ECMWF
Global Weather Prediction – A Triumph
for science and computing
Today we have global operational forecasts with useful skill varying between 7 and 8 days;
During the satellite data era there has been a gain of more than 2 days and 4 day gain since Miyakoda’s experimental forecasts which he carried out in the late 1960s (published in 1972); the hemispheric skill that can be achieved with the 1950s observing system is around 6 days – truly a triumph for science and computing
International Session 2003DB-13 ECMWF
Number of used observational data per 12 UTC cycle inECMWF's operational assimilation system, 1997-2002.
International Session 2003DB-14 ECMWF
International Session 2003DB-15 ECMWF
International Session 2003DB-16 ECMWF
N.HEM LAT 20.000 TO 90.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000
• Improving ground-based observing systems with experimental
systems to provide guidance
• Robust and efficient Numerical methods
• Thoroughly Validated Parametrizations
• Extensive Ensemble Capabilities
• Strong Computing
• We may confidently expect
– Increasing forecast quality– Further spin-offs and new products
International Session 2003DB-39 ECMWF
The Weather Community can advance Global monitoring of the
environment in:• SYSTEMS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT
– delivering operational support to weather-related risk management (early warning, impact assessment and reaction) in sensitive areas for: floods; forest fires; oil spills; and support for humanitarian aid
• GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE MONITORING
– delivering regular assessments of state of the atmosphere with particular attention to aerosols, ozone, UV radiation and specific pollutants
• GLOBAL OCEAN MONITORING
– in support of seasonal weather predictions, global change research, commercial oceanography and defence.
• GLOBAL VEGETATION MONITORING
– to assess carbon fluxes to/from the biosphere.
International Session 2003DB-40 ECMWF
Areas for GMES Collaboration Global Monitoring / Forecasting of
Greenhouse Gases2.1 Map the seasonal
variations of total column amounts of Greenhouse Gases
2.2 Model and assimilate ocean colour data, to estimate ocean carbon uptake.
2.3 Model and assimilate global aerosol information (to improve weather forecasts & the use of ocean colour data)
2.4 Model and assimilate information on the Land Biosphere and carbon cycle.
International Session 2003DB-41 ECMWF
Global Monitoring / Forecasting of Reactive Gases: The Chemical Weather Forecast
Current operational ozone monitoring capability is a good basis for developing a global capability to monitor reactive gases and associated aerosols
3.1 Integrate chemical modules with weather models, to provide global assimilation & forecasts of the distributions of
•ozone and its precursors•sulphate aerosol•other aerosol
The global models can drive regional chemistry / air quality models.
Ozone
CO
International Session 2003DB-42 ECMWF
Environmental PredictionsEnvironmental Predictions can be very effective if environmental models are driven by