Slide 1© ECMWF ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring Manfred Klöppel (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,

Slide 1 © ECMWF

ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring

Manfred Klöppel

(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)

(thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF)

[email protected]

www.ecmwf.int

Slide 2 © ECMWF

ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring

●ECMWF’s long-term strategy

●MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and ClimateHE-01 Tools and Information for Health Decision-Making

●ERA-CLIM (reanalysis)CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation

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The ECMWF Strategy2011–2020

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Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – InterimImplementationMACC-II is the third in a series of FP6 & 7 EU projects (since 2005). It is coordinated by ECMWF and the consortium comprises 36 partners from 13 countries. It runs till July 2014, when GMES operations are expected to start.

Weather services

Atmosphericenvironmental services

Long-range pollutant transport

Air quality

Dust outbreaks

Solar energy

UV radiation

Climate forcing by gases and aerosols• • • Environmental agencies

provide data & information on

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SO2 (GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT)

NO2 (OMI, KNMI/NASA)Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS, NASA)

CO2 (GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES)

Exciting satellite observations for atmospheric composition are currently available

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From combining observations and model forecast…

MOPITT CO (NASA)IASI CO (LATMOS/ULB)

MACC-II global system relies on ECMWF variational 4d-var scheme, assimilating a range of remote-sensing data to deliver analyses (illustrated here for Carbon Monoxide, a tracer of combustion sources).

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… to global forecasting…

MACC-II provides daily 5-day global forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 80 km and a time resolution of 3 hours, using a “chemistry-enabled” version of ECMWF’s forecast model.

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… to regional ensemble forecastsO3

NO2

SO2

PM10

Regional Models Global Model Observations

The global system drives the regional models providing European-scale air quality forecasts.

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CO2 and CH4 surface flux inversions

Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition (2003-2011)

Aerosol Optical Depth

Methane

http://www.gmes-atmosphere.euRetrospective Service Provision

30 years ozone layer records

700+ users

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European Air Quality

Global Pollution

Aerosol UV index

http://www.gmes-atmosphere.euNear-Real-Time Service Provision

Biomass burning emissions

90+ users and obsAIRve

More on MACC-II achievements in the talk by L. Wald in the late afternoon session today

Climate monitoring by reanalysis

Re-analysis of the recent past: Global datasets for monitoring climate change

ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim ERA-20C

ERA-40: 6-hourly gridded data products from 1957-2002

ERA-Interim: From 1979 to present, monthly updates near real-time

ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project• Preparing a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th Century • Contributes to the GEO 2012-2015 work plan:

CL-01 C1 Extension and Improvement of the Climate Record

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To prepare input observations, model data, and data assimilation systems for a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century

ERA-CLIM will deliver:

• Data rescue (both in-situ and satellite)• New reanalysis products• Improved data quality• Improved data access

ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project coordinated by ECMWF

Reanalyses

provide a complete picture of recent trends example: temperatureDeg C/decade, 1979-2001

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Summary

●Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate

●Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century

●Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation

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Summary

●Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent climate

●Increased confidence in climate change science and models’ ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century

●Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate, weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster mitigation

●The FP7 ERA-CLIM project: European contribution to GEO

Slide 17 © ECMWF