May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD Frequency of Weather Delays – An Analysis Dr. John McCarthy Manager of Scientific and Technical Program Development Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, California 93943-5502 Phone 831-656-4753 [email protected]
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EC034: Frequency of Weather Delays An Analysisonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec034/mccarthy.pdf · (CIWS) • Delay reduction projected to be well in excess of 27,000 hours
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May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Frequency of Weather Delays –An Analysis
Dr. John McCarthyManager of Scientific and Technical Program
Types of Delays• Convective Storms in Spring, Summer, and Fall;
clearly the biggest, most frequent, nearlycontinuous problem
• Winter storms at major northern airports impactsPart 121 operations (C&V, vertical wind shear)
• Flight in IMC conditions, or transit from VMC toIMC conditions impacts Part 91 and militaryoperators; critical need to do better job in C&Vforecasting/nowcasting
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Geographical Impacts
• Convection widespread, but depends ontraffic volume situation (e.g., NYC)
• Winter storms north and east U.S.• C&V issues widespread, NE, Mid-Atlantic,
Middle and deep South, Upper Midwest,West Coast
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Causes of Delay
• Equipment• ATC• Volume• Weather
– Complexities of interrelationships between categoriesnot well understood; more work needed followingexcellent lead of MIT Lincoln Laboratory at NYCITWS
• Need better definitions of bins, modeling, etc.
21
67%
11%
7%
6%
4%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Flight Crew
Airplane
Weather
Maintenance
Misc./Other
Airport/ATC
Total withknown causes
Unknown orawaiting reportsTotal
91
15
10
8
6
5
135
66
201 * As determined by the investigating authority
Accidents by Primary Cause*Hull Loss - Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet - 1990
through 1999
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
ITWS
CIWS
NCWF CCFPACCURACY
1.0
0.0
TIME (Hours)0 6
Tactical Strategic
1 2 3 4 5
0.5
Convective Storm Prediction
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Collaborative Decision Forecast Product (CCFP)Aviation Weather Center
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
National Convective Weather ForecastAviation Weather Center
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Convective Weather DelaysIncreasingOPSNET W eather Delays
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Thou
sand
s of
Del
ays 2000
19991998199719961995
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)Commercial and Military Fuel Burned (lbs./day) for May 1990
(above 7.0 km altitude)
Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, No. 9, September 1997, p.1887.
• Corridor Integrated Weather System is an expansion ofexisting ITWS technology.
• Congested en route corridors such as Cleveland ARTCCaccount for a large fraction of US en route delays.
• Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) will use all theFAA and NWS weather sensing assets plus best availableconvective weather forecast technology to reduce delays.
• Real time product feed to users start in May 2001 at CommandCenter, en route centers, major terminals
• Critical need to insure that CIWS weather alert areas arematched with AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ACTIONSto take full advantage of capabilities
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Corridor Integrated Weather System(CIWS)
• Delay reduction projected to be well in excess of 27,000 hours per year.
• Reduced delays at ORD, CVG, DTW and PIT would equate to a savings of $78M per year for users.
• Better decision making.
• Increased departure rates.
• Better coordination among centers, tracons, ATCSCC.
• Less unnecessary rerouting due to enroute weather.
What is ITWS: ITWS provides an automatedcapability which will:
• Integrate data from FAA/NWS sensors and systems, aswell as from aircraft in flight• Automatically provide weather information that isimmediately useable without further meteorologicalinterpretation• Predict short-term weather changes
Purpose: Provide terminal weather prediction andhazardous weather detection to increase safety andsustain capacity in all weather conditions
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
ITWS Supported Airports
BOS
IAD
IND
STL
DIASLC
DFW
IAH
MIA
MEM
JFK
ATLPHX
PHLWJHTC
RDU
MSY
SDF
DAY
TUL
FAAAC
ICTLAS
MCO
CLEDTW
MCI
PIT
CLT
SJU
DAL
HOU TPA
FLL
MDW
EWR N90ORD
ADW
= TRACON servedor
AAA = Airports served
= one ITWS serving 2 or more TRACONs
MSP
MKE
CMHCVG DCA
BWI
LGA
BNAOKCPSF
TEB
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Wind Shear ProductsMicroburst
detection/predictionGust Front detection/forecastWind shift estimateATIS Timers
PrecipitationStorm ProductsStorm Motion/extrapolatedpositionStorm cell information
Graphic Situation DisplayASR-9 anomalous
propagation editingTornado detection/alertAirport lightning warningLLWAS windsTerminal WindsPilot terminal test messages
ITWS Capabilities
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
ITWS Prototypes
• Currently 4 prototypes operational• Situation Displays located in followingfacilities-
Parting Thoughts• Many valuable weather developments at the FAA• Weather is a major cause of delay, but too little is
known about the complexity of weather impacts• More research on complex models on weather
impacts is needed to understand weather morethoroughly how weather fits into ATC/ATMdelays
• I am of the opinion that the impact is both largerthan previously believed, and reducible, duemostly to studying the results of Jim Evans ofMIT LL
May 16, 2001 Presentation by John McCarthy, PhD
Parting Thoughts (Continued)
• Weather remains quite distributed throughout theagency, and while excellent work is occurring,better “big picture” coordination of weather withinthe agency would be beneficial regarding delayand safety
• There continues to be a need for a senior executivelevel atmospheric scientist with operationalexperience who has the respect of the weathercommunity who can help FAA seniormanagement get a broad, integrated handle onweather, and integrate it back to ATC/ATM