Earthquake Early Warning Research and Development in California, USA Hauksson E., Boese M., Heaton T., Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Given D., USGS, Pasadena, CA, Oppenheimer D., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, Allen R. , Hellweg P. , Seismological Laboratory, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, Cua G. , Fischer M. , Caprio M. Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich California
25
Embed
Earthquake Early Warning Research and Development in California, USA
Earthquake Early Warning Research and Development in California, USA. Hauksson E., Boese M., Heaton T., Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, Given D. , USGS, Pasadena, CA, Oppenheimer D., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, Allen R. , Hellweg P. , - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Earthquake Early Warning Research and Development in California, USA
Hauksson E., Boese M., Heaton T.,Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, Given D., USGS, Pasadena, CA,
Oppenheimer D., USGS, Menlo Park, CA, Allen R. , Hellweg P. ,
Seismological Laboratory, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, Cua G. , Fischer M. , Caprio M.
Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich
California
ANSS/CISN Early Warning R&D Project• Collaboration:
• Many small to moderate earthquakes 2007 Mw5.4 Alum Rock & 2008 Mw5.4 Chino Hills2010 Mw7.2 Baja California
• CISN EEW Testing Center established at University of Southern California (USC)/SCEC
τc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Single sensor
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
Sensor network Sensor network
Caltech ETH Zurich/Caltech UC Berkeley
CISN EEW Algorithm Testing (2007-2009)
Progress:
4
CISN ShakeAlert (2009-2012)Project Goals
Year 1 (2009/10):Implementation
Year 2 (2010/11):Testing/Optimization
Year 3 (2011/12):Evaluation
System specificationsCode design specificationsCode developmentDefine formats and protocols
Implement end-to-end processingTesting with archived dataTesting with real-time dataImprove performanceTesting at the SCEC Testing CenterTesting with selected users
Prototype system in operationAdd features to Decision ModuleResearch adding GPS RT positionsResearch on finite sourcesPlans for future systems
5
Results
τc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
Speed:What causes delays?
CISN EEW Algorithm Testing (2007-2009)
R. Allen
Median: ~ 5.2 sec California
Data latency (datalogger/telemetry
delays)
Station density
0 10 20 sec
Single sensor Sensor network Sensor network
6
Results
τc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
Speed:
CISN EEW Algorithm Testing (2007-2009)
R. Allen
California
Data latency (datalogger/telemetry
delays)
Station density
0 10 20 sec
Single sensor Sensor network Sensor network
How can these delays be reduced in the future ?1. reduce data latency up-grade of ~220 CISN stations with new Q330s dataloggers (~1-2 sec delay) before Sept-2011 (ARRA stimulus funding)
2. increase processing speed current delays: ~5 sec
3. Increase station density
4. Decreas number of stations required for trigger
7
Results
τc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
Examples:Mw5.4 Alum Rock: 5 sec before peak shaking in San Francisco.Mw5.4 Chino Hills: 6 sec warning at Los Angeles City Hall. Mw7.2 Baja Calif. 70?? sec warning at Los Angeles City Hall.
Speed:after O.T. > 5 sec ~20 sec
~30 sec
CISN EEW Algorithm Testing (2007-2009)
Single sensor Sensor network Sensor network
± 0.5 ± 0.2 ± 0.4* *includes M>7 data from JapanMMI: ±0.7
false alerts: (M>6.5) 1* 0
0* three month period
Mag.: Mw:Reliability:
8
(2009-2012)
- most probable… Mw
… location… origin time… ground motion
and uncertainties
- probability of false trigger, i.e. no earthquake
- CANCEL message if needed
Bayesian approachup-dated with time
Task 1: increase reliability
Decision Module(Bayesian)
CISN ShakeAlertτc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
Single sensor Sensor network Sensor network
9
USER Module- Single site warning- Map view
SCEC/ EEW Testing Center
Decision Module(Bayesian)
Test users
CISN ShakeAlertτc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
(2009-2012)
Task 1: • increase reliability
Task 2: demonstrate
• predicted and observed ground motions• available warning time• probability of false alarm•…
feed
-bac
k
Single sensor Sensor network Sensor network
10
CISN EEW Testing Center
CISN ShakeAlertτc-Pd
On-site Algorithm
Virtual Seismologist
(VS)ElarmS
Decision Module(Integration Module) feed-back
by test users
User Display
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
• platform independent (Java)
• ability to add multiple map layers & navigational features (OpenMap application programming interface)
11
User Display
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
12
• remaining time until S-wave arrival
User Display
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
13
• remaining time until S-wave arrival• expected intensity at user site
User Display
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
14
• remaining time until S-wave arrival• expected intensity at user site• (moment) magnitude
User Display
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
15
• locations of epicenter & user
User Display
user
epicenter
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
16
• locations of epicenter & user• locations of P- /S-wavefronts
User Display
P-waveS-wave
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
17
• locations of epicenter & user• locations of P- /S-wavefronts• intensity map (ShakeMaps color-code)
User Display
M. Boese
CISN ShakeAlert
18
• siren• voice announcement:
• count-down• “weak shaking”, “strong shaking”…
User Display
future: different announcements depending on distance
M. Boese
19
CISN ShakeAlert
See also Doug Given’s Webpage: http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/given/eew/