EARLY-WARNING TEST-SITE NAPLES Giovanni Iannaccone INGV – AMRA scarl Final Project Meeting: Potsdam June, 3-5,2009 With the main contribution of RISSC-Lab.

EARLY-WARNING TEST-SITE “NAPLES”

Giovanni IannacconeINGV – AMRA scarl

Final Project Meeting: Potsdam June, 3-5,2009

With the main contribution of RISSC-Lab team:A. Bobbio, L. Cantore, V. Convertito, M. Corciulo, M. DiCrosta, L. Elia, A. Emolo, G. Festa, I. Iervolino, M. Lancieri, C. Martino, C. Satriano, T. Stabile, M. Vassallo, A. Zollo and P. Gasparini

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) of AMRA

INGV catalogue (1981-2002), M>2.5INGV catalogue (1981-2002), M>2.5

Current seismicity

Current seismicity

Local eq detected by ISNet(≈ 400 events since January 2008, 1 < M < 3.0)

28 SitesOSIRIS CMG-5T S13-J Trillium 40S

orand

Wi-Fi Radio Link

Trevico

S. Angelo dei Lombardi

ToppodiCastelgrande

Contursi Picerno

CNR-IMAA

Local Control Center

Lapio

Rocca S. Felice

S. SossioBaroniaRocchetta S. Antonio

Bisaccia

Andretta Calitri

Ruvo del Monte

ToppodiCastelgrande

AviglianoSan Fele

Bella

MuroLucano 2

MuroLucano 1

Colliano

Campagna

Senerchia

Montella

Nusco

PostiglioneS. Arsenio

CaggianoVietridi Potenza

Satriano

Pignola

Lioni

Monte LiFoi

Teora

Seismic Station

50 Km

Seismic Stations and Local Control Centers

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

Wi-Fi Radio Link

Trevico

S. Angelo dei Lombardi

ToppodiCastelgrande

Contursi Picerno

CNR-IMAA

Local Control Center

Lapio

Rocca S. Felice

S. SossioBaroniaRocchetta S. Antonio

Bisaccia

Andretta Calitri

Ruvo del Monte

ToppodiCastelgrande

AviglianoSan Fele

Bella

MuroLucano 2

MuroLucano 1

Colliano

Campagna

Senerchia

Montella

Nusco

PostiglioneS. Arsenio

CaggianoVietridi Potenza

Satriano

Pignola

Lioni

Monte LiFoi

Teora

Seismic Station

50 Km

5 LCCsHP Proliant DL140

SeisComP Earthworm

Local Control Centers: Virtual Sub-Networks

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

Wi-Fi Radio Link

Repeater

7 GHz Radio Link

Point-to-Point HDSL

Internet

Trevico

S. Angelo dei Lombardi

ToppodiCastelgrande

Contursi Picerno

CNR-IMAA

Local Control Center

Lapio

Rocca S. Felice

S. SossioBaroniaRocchetta S. Antonio

Bisaccia

Andretta Calitri

Ruvo del Monte

ToppodiCastelgrande

AviglianoSan Fele

Bella

MuroLucano 2

MuroLucano 1

Colliano

Campagna

Senerchia

Montella

Nusco

PostiglioneS. Arsenio

CaggianoVietridi Potenza

Satriano

Pignola

Lioni

Monte LiFoi

Teora

Seismic Station

50 Km

Current Communication System: HDSL + Internet + Radio-Links

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

Example of Local Control Center

Hosted by Astronomical Observatory

Property of AMRA

Data Information Flow

Earthworm (USGS, 1993 - )

Modular System Independent Scalable Connectable Robust

Real-Time Data Management: EarthWorm

Seisgram

VRML - 3D View

Ground shaking maps

• Using ShakeMap®

• Testing an alternative technique (GRSmap)

(Visit the poster by Convertito et al)

A simulated M 6.6 earthquake located at center of ISNet

Blue: Mesozoic; Green: Quaternary; Red: Tertiary-Quaternary (Volcanic); Yellow: Tertiary.

1. QVTM classification map for Campania – Lucania region2. Estimation of corrective coefficients from the spectral ratio technique

Spectral ratio for station CLT3

M Q V T

QVTM classification and site amplification coefficients

frequency

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13storey number

frequency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

C O L R S Tmorphology

5

20

35

50

65

80

7

12

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

LxLy

7810121416182021

Arenella District:5.25 km^2; 72,000 inhabitants; > 1,400 buildings> 85% Reinforced Concrete pre-code residential buildings

Structural Survey of RC buildings in the test area (AMRA)

Near-Real-Time Damage Assessment at Naples

WP3: AMRA & NORSAR

Near-Real-Time Damage Assessment at Naples

WP3: AMRA & NORSARVulnerability analysis of the building stock (AMRA)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100

Sd [cm]

SD

MD

ED

CD

RC1

P[ds|Sd]

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100

Sd [cm]

P[d

s|S

d]

SD

MD

ED

CD

RC4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 20 40 60 80 100

Sd [cm]

P[d

s|S

d]

SD

MD

ED

CD

RC7

Loss assessment based on shakemaps (NORSAR)

Irpinia 1980 scenario

ISNet Bulletin (http://lxserver.ov.ingv.it)

Automatic Picking

RT Earthquake location

RT Magnitude estimation

PGx prediction at the target sites

PRESTo - Probabilistic & evolutionaRy Early warning SysTem

Block diagram of the PRESTo software package

PRESTo: a new stand-alone software tool for earthquake early warning

The effort to build an EEW System is both technological and scientific

Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet)

Real Time Location• fully probabilistic algorithm • starts location with just one triggered station• converges to standard algorithm results

Real Time Magnitude• correlation between early P and S peaks and final magnitude•probabilistic and evolutionary algorithm based on Bayes theorem

EEW Development at AMRA

PRESTo - Probabilistic & evolutionaRy Early warning SysTem

WHAT WE NEED TO DO:

Improvement of ISNet

Quantitative evaluation of the early-warning system performances

Target applications

OK, NOW THE ISNet RELATED EWS IS RUNNING

ARE WE REALLY SURE ?

7 GHz Radio Link

Repeater

Wi-Fi Radio Link

Lapio

Rocca S. Felice

S. SossioBaroniaRocchetta S. Antonio

Bisaccia

Andretta Calitri

Ruvo del Monte

ToppodiCastelgrande

AviglianoSan Fele

Bella

MuroLucano 2

MuroLucano 1

Colliano

Campagna

Senerchia

Montella

Nusco

PostiglioneS. Arsenio

CaggianoVietridi Potenza

Satriano

Pignola

Lioni

Monte LiFoi

Teora

Seismic Station

Trevico

S. Angelo dei Lombardi

ToppodiCastelgrande

Contursi Picerno

CNR-IMAA

Local Control Center

50 Km

- Communication system with fully proprietary radio-links- LCC strengthening (i.e. solid state disks)

- Add low cost innovative seismic sensors to increase ISNet stations and for urban (structural) monitoring

Improvement of ISNet

The main test would be to wait until a significant number of earthquakes have been recorded, also of medium to large energy, and to verify the number of alarms that have correctly been sent, along with the number of false alarms and alarms missed. To verify the significance of each alarm, including the useful time before the arrival of the destructive seismic wave (lead time), and the predicted amplitude at a site with respect to that which is actually recorded.

(For instance, the EEWS operating in Japan by JMA was tested for 29 months, starting in February 2004. During this period, the JMA sent out 855 earthquake early warnings, with only 26 recognized as false alarms due technical problems or human error)

EW SYSTEM PERFORMANCE(HOW CAN IT BE VERIFIED WHETHER AN EEWS IS WORKING CORRECTLY? )

EW SYSTEM PERFORMANCE(HOW CAN IT BE VERIFIED WHETHER AN EEWS IS WORKING CORRECTLY? )

Currently in southern Apennines only low M eqs

Test with low magnitude

earthquakes

Off line test using seismograms (files)

recorded by other seismic networks

Test with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

Export the developed

methodology

Tests with low magnitude

earthquakes

Application of PRESTo to an Irpinia microeq ML = 2.5

Off line test using seismograms recorded by

other seismic networks

Application of PRESTo to the June 14, 2008, 08:43 (JT), Mw = 6.9 Iwate eq (Japan)

Screenshot of PRESTo, processing the SAC files of the Iwate earthquake

Evolution with time of the magnitude estimate and of its uncertainty.The vertical red bar marks the estimated origin time (T0) of the earthquake.The interval (6 sec) elapsed from the origin time to the first magnitude estimate with a low uncertainty is highlighted by a yellow dashed pattern

Target 2 –dist 38 kmTarget 1 – dist. 58.km

Estimated S-waves arrival Estimated S-waves arrival

Lead Time Lead Time

Final estimate of the earthquake location (red star) and lead times

The seismic stations are shown as orange triangles. Two stations are highlighted as possible targets to be alerted by PRESTo.

Application of PRESTo to the June 14,2008, 08:43 (JT), Mw = 6.9 Iwate eq (Japan)

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

Application of PRESTo to synthetic seismograms of 1980, Ms = 6.9 Irpinia eq

Computation of synthetic seismograms for a large number earthquake scenarios

We introduce two main parameters:

Prediction error definition

PE = Log10(PGVobs/PGVpred)

Where PGVobs are measured on synthetics and PGVpred are predicted by the early warning procedure (PE is computed as a function of time for the whole number of simulated eqk scenarios)

Effective Lead Time

Time interval between the S-arrival at the target and the time at which the prediction error distribution is stable (no significant variation of magnitude, location after this time).

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

Computation of synthetic seismograms for a large number of M6 and M7 earthquake scenarios

Off-line, but sequentially application of the EW chain of methodologies to investigate the areal distribution of lead-time and prediction error on PGV

Network ISNet

Network INGV + Virtual 300 rupture scenarios for a M 6.9 earthquake 90 rupture scenarios for a M 6.0 inside the network 90 rupture scenarios for a M 6.0 at the border of the

network

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

Synthetic seismograms

Hybrid source model based on k-square slip distribution (Gallovic and Brokesova, 2008)

Complete wavefield Green

function in a1-D velocity model

Waveforms have been noise contaminated and convolved by the site transfer function to account for site effects

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

Log(P

GV

)

TRCEW

Directivity, radiation pattern and point-source attenuation law determine the azimuthal variation of the prediction error distribution

Strong directivity

Strong directivity

Weak directivity

Effects of source complexity on

the prediction error

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

EW System performance (M 7): Effective Lead-Time

Time interval between the S-arrival at the target and the time at which the prediction error distribution is stable (no significant variation of magnitude, location after this time).

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

EW System performance (M 7): Prediction error

Probability of Prediction Error

The probability that the prediction error (PE=log(PGVtrue) – log(PGVesti)) is within 1-sigma interval of the standard error on the Ground Motion Prediction Equation. High values of PPE means high performance of the system in terms of prediction of ground shaking level at the target.

Smallerrors

Largeerrors

Tests with synthetic seismograms

computed at ISNet

Conclusions

Need for a quantitative evaluation of the Early-Warning system performances in terms of expected lead times, predicted ground motion intensity along with their uncertainties, for the main regional targets (export our procedures on other seismic networks)

Need to identify target applications (i.e. shut-down of equipments, saufguards of life-lines, alert for hospitals, schools, transportation networks,…) and to design and develop ‘ad hoc’ control systems and mechanisms for real-time damage reduction