DWS15 - Future Networks Forum - The tale of two networks - Frederic Geraud De Lescazes - Cisco

The Tale of Two Networks Video Driving Demand / M2M Driving Connections Implications for Europe

21St Century Connectivity: Lessons for Europe

November 2015

Service Adoption

Forecast

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

Fixed & Mobile IP

Traffic Forecast

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) – 10th Year Global IP Traffic Growth & Service Adoption

Residential

Mobile

Business

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth

34,2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2009-2014 CAGR

Projected in 2010

Actual

Compound

Annual

Growth Rate

(CAGR)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

35.6%

Europe IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Europe IP Traffic will Increase 3-Fold from 2014─2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

24% CAGR 2014–2019

11,9 14,2

17,4

21,7

27,4

34,7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exabytes

per Month

*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

Europe IP Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers

More Devices &

Connections

More Internet

Users

Faster Fixed

Broadband Speeds

More Video

Viewing

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

By 2019:

2014 2019

2.6 Billion 4.7 Billion

2014 2019

21.9 Mbps 46.9 Mbps

2014 2019

514 Million 596 Million

2014 2019

58% of Traffic

78% of Traffic

IP Broadband Growth Drivers

*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Gaming (0.09% , 0.15% )

File Sharing (16.7% , 6.1% )

Web/Data (25.0% , 16.0% )

IP VoD (15.2% , 9.7% )

Internet Video (43.0% , 68.1% )

Europe IP Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 78 Percent of Europe IP Traffic by 2019

24% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes

per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 traffic shares

*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)

Mobile Audio (8%,7%)

Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (37%,19%)

Mobile Video (53%,72%)

Europe Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

59% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Petabytes

per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.3% , 11.7% )

High Def (HD) Video (39.7% , 56.3% )

Standard Def (SD) Video (60.0% , 31.9% )

Higher Definition Content Impacts Europe IP Video Growth HD & UHD IP Video Will Account for 68% of Europe IP Video Traffic by 2019

31% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes

per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 traffic shares

*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

Europe Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Busy Hour

Average Hour

Traffic

Rate

(Tbps)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 *Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

Europe Connected Device Growth by Type By 2019, 4.7 Billion Connections from 2.6 Connections in 2014 Biggest Growth in Devices is M2M, with 50% of Total Connections by 2019

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (8.4%,8.0%)

Tablets (4%,5%)

PCs (13%,12%)

TVs (12%,13%)

Non-Smartphones (19%,15%)

Smartphones (14%,15%)

M2M (29%,50%)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Billions of

Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share

*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

Europe Internet Traffic by Device Type ... M2M Traffic Only Reaches 3% by 2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other (0.2%,0.2%)

Non-Smartphones (0%,0%)

M2M (1%,3%)

TVs (8%,7%)

Tablets (6%,29%)

Smartphones (7%,25%)

PCs (79%,35%)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes

per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share

*Note Europe defined as Western Europe + CEE, excluding Russia

Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By Vertical Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth

Wide Range of Device Requirements

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

-

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other* (38.2% CAGR)

Energy (31.9% CAGR)

Manufacturing & Supply Chain (8.9% CAGR)

Retail (10.5% CAGR)

Connected Cities (28.2% CAGR)

Connected Health (49.4% CAGR)

Connected Car (37.3% CAGR)

Utilities (21% CAGR)

Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (29.4% CAGR)

Connected Home (23.1% CAGR)

Billions of

M2M

Connections

*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services

48%

17%

11%

8%

7% 4%

Key Takeaways

• Tale of two networks • Traffic being driven by video

• Connections driven by devices

• Growing network complexity

• Users expect to be connected on every platform,

everywhere

• Need to manage for complexity as well as

capacity/congestion

• Agriculture – livestock,

soil monitoring, water

and resource

conservation,

temperature control for

milk tanks +

• Construction: Site and

equipment monitoring

• Emergency services and

national security

• New energy sources –

monitoring and power

generation support apps

• Smart grid and

distribution

• Micro-generation–

generation of power, by

residential, commercial

and community users on

their own property

• Mining and extraction

• Manufacturing and

processing

• Supply chain

• Warehousing and

storage

• Retail goods monitoring

and payment

• Retail venue access

and control

• Slot machines, vending

machines

• Environment and public

safety – closed-circuit

TV, street lighting, waste

removal, information +

• Public space advertising

• Public transport

• Road traffic

management

• Health monitors

• Assisted living – medicine dispensers +

• Clinical trials

• First responder connectivity

• Telemedicine

• Fleet management

• In-vehicle entertainment systems, emergency calling, Internet

• Vehicle diagnostics, navigation

• Stolen vehicle recovery

• Lease, rental, insurance management

• Electric vehicle charging

• Smart metering

• Office building automation

• Building security

• Office equipment – printers +

• Routers +

• Commercial appliances

• Home automation

• Building security

• Network equipment – printers +

• Network infrastructure – routers +

• White goods

• Tracking applications

• Household information devices

Connected Car Connected Work Connected Home Connected

Health Utilities

Other Energy Retail Connected

Cities

Manufacturing

& Supply Chain