Drilling Down: Global, National, State, and Local Challenges to Workforce Development

Drilling Down: Global, National, State, and Local Challenges to Workforce Development

Presented to the Helena Education Foundation Leadership Institute

Patrick KellyNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems

August 13, 2007

Global Competition

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Montana, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries

Source:Education at a Glance 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD), 2006 American Community Survey

53.8

53.2 51.0

40.9

40.6

40.6

39.8

39.7

39.3

49.5 46.6

35.6

35.1 30.4

33.4

34.8 30.2

24.5

42.5 38.5

17.6

29.9

21.8

26.9

32.0

21.6 18.5

36.4

21.7

10.0

24.0

16.7

21.9

27.3

14.5

15.5

39.239.939.5 36.9

37.336.237.0

35.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Korea Norway Ireland Belgium Denmark Spain France UnitedStates

Montana

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

Percent of Adults Age 25-34 with College Degrees

(Associate and Higher), 2005

54 Canada53 Japan

Massachusetts 52 51 Korea50 Israel

Minnesota 49New York 48

New Jersey – North Dakota 47Connecticut – Nebraska – New Hampshire 45

Colorado – Maryland – South Dakota – Virginia 44Iowa – Vermont 43

Illinois – Pennsylvania – Rhode Island 42Washington – Wisconsin 41 Norway • Ireland • Belgium

40 Denmark • SpainKansas – Utah 39 France • UNITED STATES

Delaware 38 Australia • FinlandGeorgia – Hawaii – Maine – Michigan – MONTANA – North Carolina - Ohio 37 Sweden • Luxembourg

California – Florida – Oregon 36 IcelandMissouri 35 Netherlands • United KingdomIndiana 34 Russian Federation

Mississippi 33 EstoniaAlabama – Alaska – Arizona – South Carolina – Tennessee – Wyoming 32

Kentucky – Oklahoma – Texas 31 Switzerland • New ZealandIdaho – Louisiana – West Virginia 30

New Mexico 28Arkansas 27

Nevada 26 Poland25 Greece242322 Germany20 Austria • Hungary19 Portugal18 Mexico • Chile 1716 Slovak Republic • Italy1514 Czech Republic12 Turkey10 Slovenia8 Brazil

United States % OECD Counties

Source:Education at a Glance 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD),

2006 American Community Survey

Percent of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Age Group—Montana, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries

38.9

33.8 32.5

31.7

30.7

30.3

29.2 27.2

32.8

28.4

28.7 27.5

26.8

29.9

22.6

27.4

26.5

27.8

22.4

14.8

25.5

29.6

21.4

28.1

21.8

22.9

17.1

9.0

20.6

28.5

15.6

29.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Norway Netherlands Iceland Korea Denmark UnitedStates

Australia Montana

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

Source:Education at a Glance 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD), 2006 American Community Survey

Mean Score in Student Performance on the OECD PISA Mathematics Scale, 2003

54

2

53

8

53

4

53

2

52

9

52

7

52

4

52

3

51

6

51

5

51

4

51

1

50

9

50

6

50

3

50

3

49

8

49

5

49

3

49

0

49

0

48

5 46

6

46

6 44

5 42

3 38

5

48

3

54

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Source: OECD PISA 2003 database

United States Comparative Innovation Capacity—Science, Math, and Engineering Degree Production

Source: National Science Foundation, 2001; U.S. Department of Education, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, 2004

The U.S. is producing a smaller share of

degrees in science, math, and engineering

than other nations.EU36%

S. KOREA46%

CHINA59%

US29%

Science, math and engineering degrees as a share of all degrees awarded

-312

-1,7

35

-2,7

03

-3,2

59

17,3

65

1,4

16

33

7

2,3

85

2,4

54

3,1

86

6,05

3

2,43

8

4,70

5

7,31

7

3,87

6

1,27

3

488 1,

293 2,

652

1,96

4

1,8

20

56

5 1,3

17

70

7

74

3

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and Older

White African-American Hispanic Asian/ PI Other

Projected Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity and Age from 2005 to 2025 - United States (in Thousands)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1993

-94

1995

-96

1997

-98

1999

-00

2001

-02

2003

-04

2005

-06

2007

-08

2009

-10

2011

-12

2013

-14

2015

-16

2017

-18

2019

-20

2021

-22

Growth in High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity – United States

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door 2008

White African-American Hispanic Native American Asian/PI

Actual Projected

Montana

AK

AR

DE

GA

HIIL

INIA

KS

LAME

MD

MA

MTNE

NV NJ

NY

NCND

OH

OK

ORPARI

SCSD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MIMN

MS

MO

NH

NMTN

TX

UTWV

WI

WY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

Personal Income

Per Capita

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

1980

Correlation = 0.64

Educational Attainment and Personal Income

AK

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN IAKS

LA

ME

MD MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC SD

VT

VAWA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WIWY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

1990

Personal Income

Per Capita

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

Correlation = 0.76

Educational Attainment and Personal Income

AK

AR

DE

GA HI

IL

INIA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC

SD

VT

VAWA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

UT

WV

WIWY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

2000

Personal Income

Per Capita

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

Correlation = 0.80

Educational Attainment and Personal Income

AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

INIA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC NDOH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC

SD VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CACO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WI

WY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2005

Personal Income

Per Capita

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

Correlation = 0.83

Educational Attainment and Personal Income

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Montana, 2006 (Percent)

29th

5th

16th

18th

33rd

01020304050

Age 25-64 withGraduate/Prof. Degree

Age 25-64 withBachelor's or Higher

Age 25-64 withAssociate Degree

Age 25-64 with HSDiploma

Age 18-24 with HSDiploma

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

81.8%

92.6%

9.2%

29.4%

8.6%

Reaching Top Performance in Adults with College Degrees by 2025 (55%)–Montana

276,481

85,890

190,891

139,180

-21,075

72,786

3,639

52.3%

Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%)

Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees

Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025)

Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production

Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration

Additional Degrees Needed

Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently Produce 6,959 in All Sectors)

Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor’s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)

Educational Attainment in Montana (Percent)

44.740.5

55.0

36.4

0

20

40

60

Current % of AdultsAge 25-64 with

College Degrees, 2005

Projected % in 2025with Current AnnualDegree Production

Projected % in 2025with Current Annual

Degree Production andNet Migration

% Needed to ReachBest-Performing

Countries by 2025

Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best-Performing Countries in 2025

How Can Montana Reach International Competitiveness?

Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures

190,891

156,345

23,063

6,521

1,933

139,180

-21,075

6,722

-100,000 100,000 300,000

Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative

Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production

Additional Degrees from Population Growth

Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents

Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student

Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above

Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)

Source: NCES, CCD and IPEDS; 2006 American Community Survey

Projected Change in Montana Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006-25 (in Thousands)

-10,188

-12,750

-11,992

-20,936

16 22

114

188

3,975 1,145

3,658

3,901

3,065

9,754

2,460

7,158 3,814

3,160855

322

899

1,232

1,122

-8-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and Older

WhiteAfrican AmericanHispanicNative AmericanAsian

123,837

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Difference in High School Attainment Between Whites and Minorities* - 25 to 64 Year Olds (2006)

0.5

1.5

6.4

6.9

7.0

7.4

9.1

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.9

10.1

10.9

12.2

12.7

12.7

12.7

13.5

14.4

14.5

14.9

15.8

16.3

17.0

17.3

18.2

19.0

22.0

24.5

25.2

25.4

26.8

26.8

27.6

28.4

29.3

29.9

30.3

33.6

19.2

21.0

17.9

17.6

9.4

11.2

8.8

17.3

-4.5

37.1

14.7

24.6

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Haw

aiiW

est Virginia

New

Ham

pshireAlabam

aM

ississippiKentuckyDelaw

areM

ontanaM

issouriM

arylandO

hioSouth C

arolinaTennesseeFloridaLouisianaG

eorgiaM

ichiganVirginiaAlaskaPennsylvaniaNorth D

akotaArkansasIndianaW

yoming

Connecticut

North C

arolinaNew

JerseyO

klahoma

New

YorkSouth D

akotaM

assachusettsW

isconsinNew

Mexico

Maine

United States

IllinoisM

innesotaKansasRhode IslandTexasArizonaColorado

Washington

Nevada

Utah

Iowa

California

Nebraska

Oregon

Idaho

Verm

ont

* Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Difference in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Whites and Minorities* - 25 to 64 Year Olds (2006)

7.2

7.6

11.5

11.6

12.7

12.9

13.9

14.1

15.2

15.3

15.5

16.2

16.5

17.4

17.5

18.7

19.4

19.6

20.0

20.8

21.1

22.5

23.2

23.6

24.0

24.1

24.4

25.3

25.5

26.9

27.2

27.2

28.0

28.2

29.1

29.7

31.7

32.5

22.0

27.6

25.024.0

23.6

15.2

17.2

13.5

23.6

-6.5

34.1

20.9

26.1

-10

0

10

20

30

40

West V

irginiaNew

Ham

pshireFloridaKentuckyArkansasO

hioM

issouriTennesseeM

ississippiIndianaO

klahoma

LouisianaAlabam

aDelaw

areG

eorgiaW

yoming

Michigan

Maine

AlaskaVirginiaM

arylandM

ontanaSouth C

arolinaNorth C

arolinaPennsylvaniaU

nited StatesRhode IslandO

regonKansasIdahoNevada

Utah

Iowa

Haw

aiiNew

Mexico

Minnesota

ArizonaTexasW

ashingtonNew

JerseyW

isconsinNew

YorkIllinoisConnecticut

South Dakota

Massachusetts

Nebraska

North D

akotaCalifornia

Colorado

Verm

ont

* Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Student Pipeline, 2004

Source: NCES Common Core Data 2004; Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Education Opportunity; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Retention Rate File and Fall 2003 Enrollments, 2004 Graduation Rates; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

91.3

57.3

42.0

27.3

69.7

38.8

26.9

18.4

78.6

45.5

29.0

18.8

42.3

29.7 27.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

Graduate fromHigh School

Directly EnterCollege

Enroll inSecond Year

GraduateWithin 150% ofProgram Time

Are Age 25-44with a Bachelor's

Degree

Best Performing StateUnited StatesMontana

Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…

High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier,

2004

85

.1

83

.68

2.6

81

.57

9.6

78

.67

8.4

77

.57

7.2

77

.07

6.0

75

.97

5.7

75

.57

5.3

75

.1

74

.17

3.7

73

.27

3.1

72

.47

2.2

70

.77

0.2

70

.1

68

.66

7.7

65

.4

64

.86

4.3

64

.2

62

.56

2.5

61

.86

0.3

60

.3 55

.05

4.1

52

.1

83

.8

84

.7 78

.0

64

.9

69

.7 63

.0

74

.6

73

.2

50

.7

69

.1

91

.3 84

.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

New

Jersey

Uta

hN

orth Da

kota

Iow

aN

ebra

skaM

inne

sota

Verm

on

tS

outh

Dakota

Idah

oM

onta

naP

ennsylva

niaW

isconsin

Maine

Misso

uriK

ansa

sO

hioC

onne

cticut

New

Ham

psh

ireIllin

oisA

rkansa

sW

yom

ing

Massa

chu

setts

Oklah

oma

Maryla

nd

Colora

do

Virg

inia

We

st Virginia

Ore

gon

Rho

de Isla

ndC

alifornia

Wa

shing

ton

Indian

aU

nited S

tates

Michig

an

Lou

isiana

Texas

Delaw

areH

awa

iiK

entu

ckyA

rizona

North C

aro

lina

Ten

nessee

Ala

skaN

ew Y

orkN

ew M

exico

Ala

bam

aM

ississippi

Florid

aG

eorg

iaS

outh

Caro

linaN

evada

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)

Montana Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity, 1991-92 to 2001-2022 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), 2007

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

Public Total White Non-Hispanic Minority

Actual Projected

College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates,

2004

67.9

66.965.364.364.063.462.7

61.361.261.060.559.7

58.958.958.858.7

57.8

57.657.355.855.6

55.455.255.154.554.453.553.352.952.852.851.951.5

49.647.747.547.3

45.544.9

43.443.4

67.6

57.8

58.5

62.0

59.6

43.7

55.5

61.5

68.8

42.6

0

25

50

75

Sou

th Dako

taN

ew

York

No

rth Dakota

Sou

th Carolina

Minneso

taN

orth C

arolinaG

eorgiaM

assachusettsN

ew

Jersey

Indiana

Iowa

Ne

w M

exicoK

ansas

Co

nnecticutA

labama

Mississippi

Ne

braska

Pen

nsylvaniaW

yoming

Michigan

Maryland

Wiscon

sinM

ontana

Co

loradoV

irginia

Ken

tuckyA

rkansasR

hode Island

Un

ited States

Ne

w H

ampshire

IllinoisN

evada

Louisiana

De

laware

Florida

West V

irginiaO

klahoma

Ohio

Missouri

Texas

Ha

waii

Maine

Arizo

naT

ennessee

IdahoO

regon

Alaska

Ca

liforniaV

ermont

Washingto

nU

tah

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)

Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent)

57.4

56.4

47.5

46.5 4

2.5

41.0

39.0

37.7 35.3

35.0

34.6

34.5

34.2

34.0

33.9

32.8

32.7

32.3

30.8

29.3

28.7

28.6

27.9

27.5

25.5

25.3

24.9

24.7

24.6

24.3

23.3

21.5

21.4

20.5

19.2

18.7

18.5

17.6

17.4

17.0

16.7

16.2 13.4

35.7

34.1

39.5

26.4

63.1

13.3

29.3

20.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent)

66.1

64.5

64.1

64.0

63.9

63.9

63.2

62.3

62.2

61.7

60.8

60.5

59.1

58.5

58.4

58.1

57.6

57.4

57.4

57.1

55.4

55.3

54.8

54.6

54.2

53.0

51.4

50.8

49.7

49.5

49.0

47.7 45.0

44.3

43.9

43.2

43.2

42.6

42.2

40.7

40.1 37.4

49.4

52.5

54.7

38.0

55.8

44.9

55.2

20.3

67.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004

46.039.6

34.2 30.8

29.5 27.7 26.0

25.525.0

23.523.4

22.922.922.221.6

21.321.121.020.420.3

19.819.7

18.317.917.817.517.517.517.417.216.916.316.215.915.4

14.214.113.3

20.2

26.2

28.9

23.4

30.3

23.6

23.1

25.8

21.5

12.6

18.6

47.7

35.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

Florida

Wyom

ingW

ashingtonR

hode IslandN

ew Y

orkIow

aM

ississippiU

tahH

awaii

Arizona

North C

arolinaC

aliforniaS

outh Dakota

Oregon

Kansas

Colorado

Minnesota

New

Ham

pshireU

nited States

North D

akotaIllinoisS

outh Carolina

Oklahom

aN

ew M

exicoK

entuckyIndianaA

labama

Michigan

Nevada

Missouri

Nebraska

IdahoV

irginiaP

ennsylvaniaO

hioM

assachusettsG

eorgiaT

ennesseeW

est Virginia

Wisconsin

Texas

Arkansas

Verm

ontN

ew Jersey

Montana

Maryland

Maine

Delaw

areA

laskaC

onnecticutLouisiana

Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004

76

.16

7.1

65

.86

4.3

63

.4

61

.96

0.1

59

.35

8.9

58

.3

55

.85

5.4

54

.85

4.0

52

.95

2.3

52

.0 48

.44

8.1

47

.64

7.5

47

.24

7.0

46

.74

6.4

45

.8

43

.7

42

.34

1.4

41

.44

1.2

39

.93

8.7

38

.23

7.7

26

.2

53

.1

58

.2

62

.0

45

.4

43

.7

50

.6

58

.1

45

.7

51

.8 47

.5

51

.2

21

.2

46

.9

97

.4

66

.2

0

25

50

75

100

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

Delaw

areC

oloradoN

ew Y

orkA

rizonaN

ew H

ampshire

North C

arolinaU

tahV

ermont

Florida

Pennsylvania

Missouri

North D

akotaIndianaO

regonIow

aK

ansasG

eorgiaN

ebraskaM

ichiganV

irginiaT

ennesseeU

nited States

Connecticut

Wisconsin

Maryland

Montana

Alabam

aO

klahoma

South D

akotaW

ashingtonM

innesotaO

hioLouisianaS

outh Carolina

IllinoisC

aliforniaH

awaii

Maine

West V

irginiaK

entuckyM

ississippiT

exasN

evadaN

ew M

exicoN

ew Jersey

Arkansas

IdahoW

yoming

Alaska

Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

Enrollment in State-Administered ABE Programs per 1,000 Adults Age 18-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005

191.3

189.9

152.9 142.7

133.2 121.5

112.6 102.2

86.6

84.7

82.2

82.1

79.3

79.0

78.1

77.6

71.5

70.0

69.0

68.6

67.2

63.2

62.4

61.2

57.6

55.4

53.7

52.1

50.8

47.1

44.9

43.7

42.2

161.6

240.8

70.2

38.0

81.7

111.9

89.1

101.7

141.1

92.1

124.1

120.0

74.9

105.9 98.3

78.2 71.1

95.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

FloridaU

tahM

innesotaSouth C

arolinaConnecticut

California

ArkansasNorth C

arolinaNew

Mexico

IllinoisH

awaii

Maine

Washington

Georgia

Nebraska

United States

New

YorkAlaskaDelaw

areW

yoming

IndianaTennesseeM

issouriW

isconsinSouth D

akotaNew

Ham

pshireRhode IslandM

ississippiO

regonNorth D

akotaIow

aPennsylvaniaM

arylandM

ontanaKentuckyIdahoNew

JerseyO

klahoma

LouisianaO

hioVerm

ontW

est Virginia

KansasM

assachusettsM

ichiganVirginiaArizonaColorado

TexasAlabam

aNevada

Source: U.S. Department of Education; U.S. Census Bureau, ACS

Enrollment in ESL per 1,000 Adults Age 18-64 with Little or No English Proficiency, 2006

305.8

241.0

190.3

176.3

163.0

156.1

149.8

138.0

118.8

117.5

116.0

114.9

113.4

109.5

108.3

107.5

104.8

99.1

89.5

89.0

88.6

87.9

84.2

83.3

82.8

73.0

63.3

63.2

61.8

59.3 46.2

45.7

45.0

196.1

411.3

100.5

44.2

113.8

145.8 119.8

131.0

174.0

123.4

159.5

153.6

105.4

143.3

130.4 108.7

102.4

127.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Minnesota

Maine

Vermont

North D

akotaNew

Ham

pshireU

tahM

issouriW

ashingtonConnecticut

North C

arolinaArkansasFloridaIllinoisCalifornia

Iowa

South Carolina

Georgia

Wyom

ingNebraska

South Dakota

Ohio

KentuckyNew

Mexico

TennesseeU

nited StatesIndianaDelaw

arePennsylvaniaM

ontanaM

ichiganW

est Virginia

Wisconsin

New

YorkAlaskaO

regonM

arylandVirginiaH

awaii

Oklahom

aIdahoKansasRhode IslandNew

JerseyLouisianaColorado

Nevada

Massachusetts

Mississippi

Alabama

TexasArizona

Source: U.S. Department of Education; U.S. Census Bureau, ACS

54.9

54.5

42.5

41.1

36.1

34.9

34.4

33.3

29.0

28.3

28.0

28.0

27.8

27.5

27.2

26.7

26.4 24.6

24.2

23.4

23.3

22.7

21.9

21.0

20.1

20.0

19.5

18.4

17.6

16.3

15.4

14.9 12.0

31.1

26.4

27.2

32.8

33.5

26.5

34.7

35.0

29.2

38.4

33.0 29.1

34.2

27.8

9.3

25.2

61.8

47.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

North D

akotaM

aineW

yoming

AlaskaVerm

ontM

ontanaU

tahW

est Virginia

KentuckyW

isconsinO

hioM

innesotaSouth D

akotaNew

Ham

pshireVirginiaArkansasIdahoIow

aO

regonNebraska

Washington

Oklahom

aH

awaii

PennsylvaniaM

assachusettsKansasTennesseeNew

Mexico

New

YorkColorado

Rhode IslandIndianaM

issouriG

eorgiaConnecticut

Mississippi

FloridaArizonaM

ichiganU

nited StatesIllinoisNew

J erseySouth C

arolinaNorth C

arolinaM

arylandLouisianaNevada

Delaw

areTexasAlabam

aCalifornia

GEDs Awarded to 18 to 39 Year Olds per 1,000 18 to 39 Year Olds with No High School Diploma by State (2006)

Sources: ACE, GED Testing Service; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Percent of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students – 16 to 18 Year Olds (2006)

Sources: ACE, GED Testing Service

27.6

40.5

48.8 49.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2006

2nd Highest % in the U.S.

Enrollment of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percentage of 25 to 49 Year Olds with a High School Diploma But No College (2005)

Sources: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

40.1

%24

.1%

23.2

%22

.0%

19.8

%18

.6%

17.7

%17

.0%

16.9

%16

.7%

16.1

%15

.1%

15.0

%14

.8%

14.7

%14

.7%

14.5

%14

.5%

14.4

%14

.3%

14.0

%14

.0%

13.9

%13

.7%

13.2

%13

.1%

13.0

%12

.9%

12.8

%12

.2%

12.0

%12

.0%

11.4

%11

.1%

11.1

%10

.9%

10.9

%10

.7%

10.7

%10

.6%

10.5

%10

.5%

9.7%

9.6%

9.6%

9.1%

9.0%

8.6%

8.5%

7.6%

7.5%

0%

15%

30%

45%

Arizona

Utah

California

New

Mexico

Colorado

IllinoisW

ashingtonN

orth Dakota

Iowa

Oregon

Nebraska

Minnesota

Kansas

Maryland

Alaska

IdahoM

ichiganO

klahoma

Texas

United S

tatesS

outh Dakota

Wyom

ingN

orth Carolina

Florida

Nevada

Missouri

Virginia

Haw

aiiW

isconsinK

entuckyR

hode IslandA

labama

New

York

Montana

IndianaG

eorgiaA

rkansasO

hioM

assachusettsM

ississippiN

ew Jersey

Delaw

areM

aineC

onnecticutS

outh Carolina

Tennessee

Verm

ontW

est Virginia

New

Ham

pshireP

ennsylvaniaL

ouisiana

Percent of Total Gross Domestic Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S.

5.1 3.5

5.2

6.2

9.3

6.1

8.2

15.1

24.7

16.7

3.9

6.8 6.0 4.4

8.5

5.2

7.1

15.5

27.0

15.6

1.2

2.0

4.1

11.8

5.1

5.8

6.5

20.8

30.9

11.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Agriculture,Forestry,

Fishing/Hunting

Mining Construction Manufacturing Transp.,Warehousing,

Utilities

WholesaleTrade

Retail Trade Finance,Insurance,Real Estate

Services Government

Montana 1997Montana 2007

United States 2007

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce—By Education Attainment, 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

77.5

86.4

84.3

83.1

79.1

74.9

60.8

78.8

87.0

86.1

83.7

77.6

76.4

56.5

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

All Levels

Graduate or ProfessionalDegree

Bachelors Degree

Associates Degree

Some College, NoDegree

High School Graduate

Less than High SchoolMontana

United States

Projected Growth (%) in Occupations Requiring at Least Some Postsecondary Education from 2004 to 2014

38.4

34.7

27.2

27.1

25.9

24.9 22.9 21.3 18.9

18.9

18.9

18.6

18.5

18.4

18.0

17.2

16.7

16.4

16.2

15.6

15.2

14.7

14.1

13.2

13.0

12.7

12.5

12.2

12.1

12.1

10.8

32.1

49.3

16.4

18.6

21.8 19.3

20.9

26.1

20.1

25.0

24.8

16.8

21.4

20.7 18.3 16.4

20.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nevada

Utah

Colorado

ArizonaW

yoming

IdahoArkansasFloridaG

eorgiaNew

Ham

pshireNorth C

arolinaTennesseeCalifornia

Montana

Alabama

Maryland

Delaw

areSouth C

arolinaU

nited StatesSouth D

akotaIndianaKentuckyH

awaii

AlaskaM

ississippiW

ashingtonNew

Mexico

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Rhode IslandO

klahoma

Nebraska

Iowa

Vermont

Oregon

New

J erseyIllinoisM

issouriM

assachusettsO

hioM

ichiganM

aineNew

YorkConnecticut

LouisianaW

est Virginia

North D

akotaPennsylvaniaKansasTexasVirginia

Source: America’s Career Info Network, Data Provided by State Departments of Labor

NA

Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Montana, 1960-2007

88.8 88.4

94.0

89.6

80.779.3

76.879.5

84.1

91.2

60

70

80

90

100

110

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007

Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

Development Report Card for the States

Source: 2007 Development Report Card for the States, CFED

STRENGTHS (Top 10 Rank)

Rank Measure 1 Manufacturing Investment 2 Change in Toxic Release Inventory 3 Business Created Via University R&D 3 Conversion of Cropland to Other Uses 4 Use of Alternative Energy 5 High School Completion 5 New Companies 6 Change in Income from Dividends, Interest and

Rent 6 Voting Rate 7 Change in Unemployment Rate 7 Heart Disease 7 Change in Private Research and Development 8 K-12 Education Expenditures 8 High School Attainment 9 Disparity between Rural and Urban Areas 9 Five Year Change in New Companies10 Change in Poverty Rate10 Net Migration10 Basic Educational Skills Proficiency - Reading

41 Working Poor42 Health Professional Shortage Areas43 Vehicle Miles Traveled43 Greenhouse Gas Emissions43 Broadband Access43 Change in Health Professional Shortage Areas44 Toxic Release Inventory44 Urban Mass Transit44 Royalties and Licenses44 Venture Capital Investments44 Uninsured Low-Income Children46 Technology Industry Employment46 SBIC Financing48 Private Research and Development49 Employer-Provided Health Insurance49 Change in Energy Costs50 Average Annual Pay50 Job Creation by Start-Up Businesses50 Strength of Traded Sector

WEAKNESSES (Bottom 10 Rank)

Rank Measure

Employment AEarnings and Job Quality FEquity BQuality of Life BResource Efficiency D

Competitiveness/Existing Businesses CEntrepreneurial Energy D

Human Resources AFinancial Resources DInfrastructure Resources BAmenity Resources and Natural Capital BInnovation Assets C

Performance

Business Vitality

Development

Capacity

C

D

C

Montana

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)

Relationship between Personal Income and Tax Revenues (2003)

NC

AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

INIA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WI

WY

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

$45,000

$2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Personal Income

Per Capita

Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita

Correlation = 0.84

Relationship Between Educational Attainment and High Tech Employment

Source: State New Economy Index, U.S. Census Bureau

AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN

IA KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID

KY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

UT

WV

WI

WY

0

3

6

9

12

15 20 25 30 35 40

High Tech Employment, High Educational AttainmentHigh Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment

Low Tech Employment, High Educational AttainmentLow Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment

Percentage Employment in High Tech Occupations

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Correlation = 0.76

Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MDMA

MS

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN TX

WV

WI

WY

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Personal Income Per Capita, 2000

Percent of the Adults Population Ages 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

MT

HI RIFL US

Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment

High Income, High Educational AttainmentHigh Income, Low Educational Attainment

State New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

The Relationship Between Education and Health

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or

Higher

State Health Index, United Health Foundation

Correlation = 0.76

AK

AZAR

DE

GA

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID

KY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NMTN

TX

UT

WV

WI

WY

80

85

90

95

-25 0 25

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; United Health Foundation

Helena and Surrounding Area(Public Use Microdata Area)

Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (2005-06)

6.0%

32.6

%

22.8

%

9.1%

19.7

%

9.8%

7.1%

31.0

%

24.7

%

8.4%

20.8

%

8.1%

13.2

%

28.9

%

20.6

%

8.3%

18.6

%

10.4

%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Less than HighSchool

High SchoolDiploma or

GED

Some College,No Degree

AssociatesDegree

BachelorsDegree

Graduate orProfessional

Degree

Helena and Surrounding Area Rest of Montana U.S.

Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Educational Attainment of 18 to 24 Year Olds (2005-06)

18.3%

39.1%

32.6%

10.0%

18.8%

35.2% 34.5%

11.5%

18.7%

33.9% 33.6%

13.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Less than High School High School Diploma orGED

Some College, NoDegree

College Degree

Helena and Surrounding Area Rest of Montana U.S.

Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Median Earnings by Degree-Level of 18 to 64 Year Olds (2005-06)

12,2

24 18,3

36

18,3

36 24,2

44

35,6

53

50,3

10

9,37

2

20,1

24

20,1

24 24,4

48 30,1

86

41,6

56

16,0

99

23,2

26

25,1

55

32,1

98

42,2

60

59,0

83

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Less than HighSchool

High SchoolDiploma or

GED

SomeCollege, No

Degree

AssociatesDegree

BachelorsDegree

Graduate orProfessional

Degree

Helena and Surrounding Area Rest of Montana U.S.

Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

7,44

6 12,0

74

10,0

62

18,3

36

35,6

53

34,8

38

6,11

2

13,0

80

13,2

43

20,1

24 24,1

49

30,5

60

12,2

24 16,1

97

15,0

93

25,1

55

33,6

16

43,8

03

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Less than HighSchool

High SchoolDiploma or

GED

SomeCollege, No

Degree

AssociatesDegree

BachelorsDegree

Graduate orProfessional

Degree

Helena and Surrounding Area Rest of Montana U.S.

Median Earnings by Degree-Level of 18 to 34 Year Olds (2005-06)

Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Increase in Earnings by Degree-Level (18 to 64 Year Olds)

6,112 5,908

17,317

10,752

4,324

10,062

7,127

8,972

19,034

-

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

No High School to HighSchool Completion

High School to AssociatesDegree

High School to Bachelor'sDegree

Helena and Surrounding Area Rest of Montana U.S.

Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

Recent High School Graduation Rates

85%

87% 86% 87%

82%

75%74%

81%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Helena Education Foundation

Helena High

Capital High

District

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

First-Time Freshmen as a Percent of High School Graduates, 2004

Montana = 52.0%Source: Montana University System; Office of the Commissioner of Higher Education

75.6% to 98.1%55.0% to 75.6%36.3% to 55.0%21.9% to 36.3%13.7% to 21.9%

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

Two-Year First-Time Freshmen as a Percent of High School Graduates, 2004

Montana = 11.4%Source: Montana University System; Office of the Commissioner of Higher Education

21.5% to 39.6%9.7% to 21.5%4.4% to 9.7%1.4% to 4.4%0.0% to 1.4%

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

Four-Year First-Time Freshmen as a Percent of High School Graduates, 2004

Montana = 40.6%Source: Montana University System; Office of the Commissioner of Higher Education

62.0% to 89.6%42.0% to 62.0%30.2% to 42.0%18.1% to 30.2%11.6% to 18.1%

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

Petroleum

Deer Lodge

Granite

Pondera

Missoula

Jefferson

Silver Bow

BroadwaterGolden Valley

Musselshell

YellowstoneSweet Grass

Lewis and Clark

Judith Basin

Wibaux

Richland

Dawson

Custer

Garfield

Meagher

Treasure

Big Horn

Carbon

Stillwater

Park

Gallatin

Madison

Beaverhead

Cascade

Powell

Ravalli

Mineral

LakeSanders

Lincoln

Flathead

Glacier TooleLiberty

Hill

Blaine

Phillips

Valley

Daniels

Roosevelt

Sheridan

Carter

Chouteau

Fallon

Fergus

McCone

Powder River

Prairie

Rosebud

Teton

Wheatland

69.8%

5.5%4.3%

Counties from Which UM Helena Receives 80% of Its Undergraduate Enrollment, Fall 2004

Source: Montana University System; Office of the Commissioner of Higher Education

Certificates and Degrees Awarded by UM – Helena 2006-07

Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey

1

6

6

6

6

7

7

13

14

17

18

19

24

26

37

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Machine Tool Technology

General Studies

Industrial Electronics Technology

Airframe Mechanics and Aircraft Technology

Precision Metal Working, Other

Automotive Mechanics Technology

Welding Technology/Welder

Diesel Mechanics Technology

Construction Engineering Technology

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science

Fire Protection and Safety Technology

Computer Programming

Nursing/Registered Nurse

Accounting Technology

Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training

In a Big World . . .

In a Big Country . . .

In a Big State . . .

In Helena . . .

Local Issues of Policy and Practice

PostsecondaryPostsecondaryPostsecondaryPostsecondary

High SchoolHigh School

ABEABE

High SchoolHigh School

ABEABEWorkforceWorkforceWorkforceWorkforce

Employer Role in Promoting, Supporting Education and

Retraining

Local Issues of Policy and Practice

PostsecondaryPostsecondaryPostsecondaryPostsecondary

High SchoolHigh School

ABEABE

High SchoolHigh School

ABEABEWorkforceWorkforceWorkforceWorkforce

Aligning Assessments and Expectations – Reduce Remediation

Affordability

Early Outreach (e.g. Gear Up)

Rigorous Course-Taking

Effective Communication Aligning Assessments and Expectations

Supply in Key Fields – Healthcare, Teaching, Technology, Trades, etc.

Effective Communication

Student Engagement with Employers: Work Study, Job Shadowing, Internships,

Apprenticeships, etc.

Soft Skills – Communication, Work Ethic, etc.

Barriers

Potential Strategies for Improvement

Aligning Assessments and Expectations

Rigorous and Relevant (e.g. Vocational) Course-Taking

Student Engagement with Employers: Work Study, Job

Shadowing, Internships, Apprenticeships, etc.

Soft Skills – Communication, Work Ethic, etc.

Effective Communication