1 Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM Vice-chair Presentation to the BSRAC Presentation to the BSRAC Demersal Working Group Demersal Working Group Tuesday 9 Tuesday 9 th th June 2009 June 2009 Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Fisheries Copenhagen, Denmark Copenhagen, Denmark ICES’ advice for 2010
ICES’ advice for 2010. Presentation to the BSRAC Demersal Working Group Tuesday 9 th June 2009 Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Copenhagen, Denmark. Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM Vice-chair. ICES’ advice for 2010. Released on the ICES’ web-site on 29 th May 2009 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Transcript
1
Dr Carl O’Brien
ACOM Vice-chair
Presentation to the BSRACPresentation to the BSRAC
Demersal Working GroupDemersal Working Group
Tuesday 9Tuesday 9thth June 2009 June 2009
Ministry of Food, Agriculture and FisheriesMinistry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries
Copenhagen, DenmarkCopenhagen, Denmark
ICES’ advice for 2010
• Released on the ICES’ web-site on 29th May 2009
• Advice released concerns:– Cod, herring, sprat and salmon stocks– Sea trout and flatfishes– EC request on multi-annual management plan for
Baltic pelagic stocks
• Advice for Western Baltic herring is being developed in conjunction with the advice on North Sea herring and will be released on 26th June 2009
ICES’ advice for 2010
• Advice on pelagic stocks:
– Herring (excluding Western Baltic) and sprat
will be presented by Steen Christensen on behalf of ICES on 15th June 2009.
ICES’ advice for 2010
1. General approach
2. Benchmarking
3. Management plan evaluation
4. Work programme (calendar dates)
ICES’ advice process - aspects
1. • Begins with an assessment of the status of the fish
stocks involving scientists from the Baltic countries• The assessments are reviewed by experts not involved
with the assessments• Draft advice is developed based on this reviewed
assessment by scientists from the Baltic countries and the reviewers
• Advice is approved by the ICES’ Advisory Committee (ACOM):– constituted by one scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member
Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32– Estimated fishing mortality in 2008 uncertain but below Fpa (0.6) – Strong support for a declining trend in fishing mortality– Estimated mis-reporting has decreased to 6% in 2008,
compared to 32-45% in previous years– Discard estimates are uncertain but not high compared to
landings
ICES’ advice for 2010
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Fishing Mortality
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Flim
Fpa
Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32– Recruitment has been low over the last 20 years– 2005 and 2006 year-classes are estimated to be the
strongest in 20 years
ICES’ advice for 2010
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Recruitment (age 2)
Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32– Estimated spawning stock biomass in 2008 is at a low
level but estimated to be twice as high as in 2005– Biomass reference points not defined
ICES’ advice for 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
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Spawning Stock Biomass
• Historical performance– Gives results of recent assessments for spawning stock biomass, fishing
mortality and recruitment• No problems!
– Note that whilst the estimated fishing mortality for 2008 is considered to be rather uncertain, there is strong support for a declining trend in fishing mortality