Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM (Advisory Committee) Vice-chair ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) State of Fish Stocks in European Waters.

Dr Carl O’Brien

ACOM (Advisory Committee) Vice-chair

ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)

State of Fish Stocks in European State of Fish Stocks in European WatersWaters

2626thth September 2012 September 2012

Centre de Conférences Albert Borschette,Centre de Conférences Albert Borschette,

Brussels, BelgiumBrussels, Belgium

Content of presentation

OVERVIEW OF NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STOCKS

•Summarise the biological status of the main stocks of interest for EU fisheries

•New procedures for assessing and managing stocks with incomplete data will be explained

1. Iceland & East Greenland

2. Barents Sea & Norwegian Sea

3. Faroe Plateau4. North Sea5. Celtic Sea & West of

Scotland6. Bay of Biscay &

Atlantic Iberian Waters7. Baltic Sea

Widely distributed stocks EcoregionsEU stocks

ICES’ advice

State of stocks: MSY (all ecoregions)

General trends in the Northeast Atlantic

ICES (2011). Report of the ICES Advisory Committee. Book 1, 226pp.

2010: 33 of assessed stocks2011: 35 of assessed stocks2012: tbd

• 2010:– 78 individual fish stocks– Quantitative advice for 10 data-limited stocks

• Majority of the data-limited stocks have more information available than merely either catch or landings.

• 2012:– 185 individual fish stocks– Quantitative advice for 68 data-limited stocks

New approach intends to aid policy-makers move towards sustainable exploitation of fisheries

81%(68 out of 84)

Advice and expert groups (Jan. to Sept. 2012)

Number of stocks for which

advice is requestedNumber of special requests

General Advice

9 fisheries related requests

5 environment related requests

4 ecosystem related requests

Iceland and East Greenland 20 stocks

Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea 9 stocks

Faroe Plateau Ecosystem 12 stocks

Celtic Sea and West of Scotland 48 stocks 1 special fisheries related request

North Sea 34 stocks 1 special fisheries related request

Bay of Biscay and Atlantic Iberian

Waters23 stocks

Baltic Sea 15 stocks 1 special fisheries related request

Widely Distributed and Migratory

Stocks21 stocks 3 special fisheries related requests

North Atlantic Salmon 3 stocks

• Landings:– Mis-reporting (area / species)– Insufficient or unrepresentative biological sampling

coverage– No reporting

• Discards:– No reporting– Insufficient observer coverage and coverage bias

• Effort:– Non-availability– Poor linkage to fishing practice / métier– Poor comparability

It was not possible to include Spanish commercial data for 2011.

Catch options and advice for 2013: based on the 2011 assessment.

Data quality issues

• Stock surveys (e.g. coverage, design and consistency in time)• Biological data (Bias / errors in measurements of age and maturity;

uncertain stock identity)

Email 25th September 2012 13:01

Spanish national authorities are investigating a pragmatic solution to provide the best estimate of catches … unallocated catches …

=> Assess stock size and provide management advice

Same principles, concept and framework:

Maximize average long-term yield (setting FMSY)

Safeguard against low SSB (setting MSY Btrigger)

MSY Btrigger

FMSY

SSB2013

more caution needed

ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule (HCR)

ICES’ MSY

Transition to MSY HCR by 2015

FMSY-HCR transition 2013 = 0.4 F(2010) + 0.6 FMSY-HCR

Moving from F2010 to FMSY-HCR in 2015 in 5 steps

FMSY-HCR transition 2014 = 0.2 F(2010) + 0.8 FMSY-HCR

FMSY-HCR transition 2015 = 0.0 F(2010) + 1.0 FMSY-HCR = FMSY-HCR

(values of advised F capped at Fpa for consistency with PA)

ICES’ MSY ... continued

Quantitative assessments and outlook tables with catch options for

2013 are not always available!

New approach this year for data-lim

ited stocks to provide

quantitative advice … previously qualita

tive advice … do not

increase … reduce catch

Activity in 2012 - Enormous scientific / advisory effort!

WKLIFE (February), RGLIFE (May); development by Cefas, ACOM Leadership, ICES’ Secretariat and ICES’ community

Three basic principles:1) Available information should be used.2) Advice for DLS should, to the extent possible, follow the same principles as for data-rich stocks; i.e. aiming towards exploitation consistent with MSY.3)The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities.

Data-limited stocks (DLS)

• Categorisation of stocks (6 categories) from data-rich towards situations of decreasing information.

• Methods proposed for different categories – further developments, simulation testing ... on-going

Common DLS situations:• stock abundance index and F relative to FMSY-proxy

(plaice in VIId) • stock abundance index available

(megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd) (anglerfish …)• F in relation to FMSY-proxy available (sole VIIh-k)• time-series available of landings only

(sole VIIbc) (whiting IIIa)

Data-limited stocks (DLS) ... continued

Advice starts from recent catch (for most stocks, average landings of last 3 years) and modifies it as follows:

•If stock abundance index available: modify according to index trend in last 5 years (Average last 2 years)/(Average 3 previous years)

•If current F relative to FMSY-proxy known: modify according to change required in current F to reach FMSY-proxy (could be in steps until 2015)

•If time series available of landings only: no modification (but precautionary margin always applied)


After appropriate DLS method has been applied, two subsequent sequential steps:

1. Uncertainty window: limit result to 20% change (increase or decrease) (because results more noisy than with standard stock assessments)

2. Precautionary margin: 20% reduction if stock status relative to (candidate) reference points unknown, unless there is evidence that stock is strongly increasing or that exploitation (F or effort) has decreased substantially


• Advice applicable to time-frame compatible with measurable response in metrics used as basis for advice

• The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities, and when precautionary margin applied:

no expected change in advice for a number of years (e.g. 3 years tbd) unless important new knowledge emerges


North Sea autumn spawners – NSASEU/Norway MP

Western Baltic spring spawners – WBSSMSY

Herring stocks – NS, CS & WoS

Herring stocks – NS, CS & WoS ... cont.

NSAS

WBSS

IS

Ce

ltic

Se

a a

nd

S Ir

ela

nd

VIa (s

ou

th) a

nd

VIIb

,c

VIa (north)

Celtic Sea &

West, Southwest Ireland• Cod (VIIe-k) • Haddock (VIIb-k)• Whiting (VIIe-k)• Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)• Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)• Northern hake• Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)• Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)• Nephrops (FUs 16-17-20-22)

English Channel• Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak)• Plaice (VIId)• Plaice (VIIe)• Sole (VIId)• Sole (VIIe)

West of Scotland & Rockall (VIab)

• Cod (VIa; VIb)• Haddock (VIa; VIb)• Whiting (VIa; VIb)• Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI)• Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb)• Nephrops (FUs11-12-

13)

Irish Sea (VIIa)• Cod• Haddock• Whiting• Plaice• Sole• Nephrops (FUs 14-15-19)

Other stocks – Channel, CS & WoS

Stock FMSY MSY Btrigger Advice last year Advice this year

Plaice SW Ireland 0.24 nd reduce catch< 100 t;

reduce bycatch and discards

Plaice W Ireland nd nd no increase in catch < 30 t

Plaice Celtic Sea nd ndreduce catch;

technical measures< 360 t; technical measures

to reduce discard rates

Plaice Irish Sea nd ndno increase in catch;

tech measures< 490 t

Plaice W Channel 0.24 1 650 t < 1440 t < 2 100 t

Plaice E Channel 0.23 nd no increase in catch < 4 300 t; reduce discards


Sole SW Ireland 0.31 nd no increase in catch< 200 t; take into account

advice for plaice

Sole W Ireland nd nd no increase in catch < 30 t

Sole Celtic Sea 0.31 2 200 t < 1 060 t < 1 100 t

Sole Irish Sea 0.16 3 100 t < 200 tno directed fisheries;

minimise bycatch, discards

Sole W Channel 0.27 2 800 t < 740 t < 960 t

Sole E Channel 0.29 8 000 t < 5 600 t < 5 900 t

Overview by species / stocks: flatfish


Hake – Northern 0.24 nd < 51 900 t < 45 400 t

Angler VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce catch < 24 800 t

Angler IIIa, IV, VI nd nd reduce catch reduce by 20%

Megrim IVa, VIa 0.29 9 700 t no increase in catch < 4 700 t

Megrim Rockall nd nd no increase in catch < 160 t

Megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce catch < 12 000 t

Pollack VI, VII nd nd no increase < 4 200 t

Overview by species / stocks

Advice for 2013, MSY transition: Landings < 45 400 tF (Fishing Mortality)

2009 2010 2011

MSY (FMSY) Not available

Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Not available

SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 2010 2011 2012

MSY (Btrigger) Not available

Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Not available

Qualitative evaluation

Above poss. reference points

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Land

ings

in 1

000

tonn

es

Landings

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

F (15

-80c

m)

Fishing Mortality FMSY

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Recr

uitm

ent i

n m

illio

ns

Recruitment (age 0)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

SSB

in 1

000

tonn

es

Spawning Stock Biomass

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

2040

6080

100

120

140

F(15-80 cm)

SS

B in

100

0t

FMSY

2010

* No assessment in 2012, last year’s assessment * Strong year-class in 2007 and 2008, but weak in 2009 and 2010

* Very strong increase in SSB and decrease in F

* Rapid growth and fast dynamics

Hake – Northern stock

Landings 2010 – 73 000 t (discards ~6 700 t)No stock landings or discards in 2011 (Spanish data not available)

Discards included in assessment but incomplete and high uncertainty

Short-term forecast in terms of catch split into landings and discards

F (2011) and F (2012) = F(2008-2010) = 0.42; landings (2011) = 77.4, landings (2012) = 63.2; SSB (2013) = 114 kt

RationaleHuman

consump. landings (2013)

BasisF Total (2013)

F HC (2013)

F Disc (2013)

Disc.(2013)

Catch Total (2013)

SSB (2014)%SSB change

1)

%TAC change2)

MSY framework 37.2FMSY

(Fsq*0.57)0.24 0.20 0.04 1.7 39.0 141.9 +24% −32%

MSY transition 45.40.4*F2010+0.6*FMSY

(Fsq*0.71)0.30 0.26 0.04 2.1 47.6 133.4 +17% −18%

Recovery Plan46.8 −15% TAC

(Fsq*0.75)

0.31 0.27 0.05 2.2 49.0 132.0 +16% −15%

Other options 55.1Equal TAC

(Fsq*0.91)0.38 0.32 0.06 2.7 57.8 123.3 +8% 0%

59.9 Fsq *1 0.42 0.36 0.06 2.9 62.8 118.4 +4% +9%

63.3+15% TAC

(Fsq*1.08)0.454 0.39 0.07 3.1 66.4 114.7 0% +15%

68.9 Fsq *1.2 0.51 0.43 0.07 3.4 72.3 108.9 −5% +25%

35% of projected landings in 2013 from assumed recruitment (2011-2013)

Hake – Northern stock ... continued

Advice 2013, DLS: Reduce catch by 20% in relation to last 3 years average. Due to uncertainty in landings data, ICES cannot quantify resulting catch. Dedicated anglerfish surveys in Division IVa and

Subarea VI indicate decline since 2008:

(Average last 2 years) 20% lower than (average previous 3 years) 20% catch decrease with respect to recent average (last 3 year average)

1.Uncertainy window: 20% decrease2.Precautionary margin: no because significant effort decrease in main fisheries

F (Fishing Mortality)

2009–2011

MSY (FMSY) Unknown

Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Unknown

SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)

2007–2011

MSY (Btrigger) Unknown

Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown

Qualitative evaluation Decreasing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Lan

din

gs in

100

0 t

Landings

2006 2008 2010

01

02

03

04

0

Ab

un

da

nc

e (m

illio

ns

)

2006 2008 2010

01

02

03

04

05

06

0

Bio

ma

ss

('0

00

to

nn

es

)

Northern shelf (partial)

Area IV (partial)

Area VIa

AreaVIb

AreaVI

Anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius & L. budegassa) in Division IIIa and Subareas IV and VI

East-Greenland

Iceland

Faroe-plateau

Faroe-bank

Rockall

West Scotland

Irish Sea

VIIe-k

NE Arctic

Norwegian Coastal

North Sea +

Kattegat

Western Baltic

Eastern Baltic

Cod stocks – Northeast Atlantic

Advice for 2013, EU/Norway MP: Landings < 25 441 t

F (Fishing Mortality) 2009 2010 2011

MSY (FMSY) Above target

Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvested sustainably

Management plan (FMP) Above target


2010 2011 2012

MSY (Btrigger) Below trigger

Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Reduced reproductive capacity

Management plan (SSBMP) Below trigger

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0.0 0.5 1.0

SSB

in 1

000

t

Fishing Mortality (ages 2-4)

2011

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

F (a

ges

2-4

)

Fishing MortalityFmsyFpaFlim

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Re

cru

itm

en

t in

mill

ion

s

Recruitment (age 1)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

SS

B in

10

00

t

Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa

MSY Btrigger

Blim

0

100

200

300

400

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Land

ings

in 1

000

t

Total removalsUnallocated

Discards

Landings

* Gradual improvement in last years, but still poor stock status * F well above FMSY

* SSB just below Blim

* All year-classes since 1997 very low

* Proportion discarded in recent years higher than in past

Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West

Total removals 2011 – 67 kt: landings (35kt), discards (12kt), unallocated (20kt)Catch = landings + discards = 47 kt

Main sources of uncertainty: unallocated removals and assumptions for F(2012)

Short-term forecast in terms of catch split into landings, discards and unallocated

F (2012) reduction according to MP; SSB(2012) = 65 kt ( < Blim) MP F(2013) = 0.35 x F(2008) = 0.22, subject to 20% TAC constraint

Rationale Landings1) Basis Ftotal Fland Fdisc Funal2) Disc Unal2) SSB %SSB3) %TAC4)

(2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2014) Change Change

Management Plan

25.441 TAC constraint 0.26 0.15 0.06 0.05 6.5 8.6 107 +37% −20%


F (2012) reduction according to observed trend in F during 2006-10; SSB(2013) < MSY B trigger

Rationale Landings1) Basis Ftotal Fland Fdisc Funal2) Disc Unal2) SSB %SSB3) %TAC4)

(2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2014) Change Change

Management Plan

25.441 TAC constraint 0.27 0.16 0.06 0.06 6.6 8.6 103 +36% -20%

MSY framework 10FMSY*

SSB2013/Btrigger

0.10 0.06 0.02 0.02 2.5 3.4 123 +63% -69%

MSY transition 28 Transition rule 0.29 0.17 0.06 0.06 7.2 9.4 101 +33% -13%

Zero catch 0 F=0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 136 +80% -100%

Other options 19 FMSY 0.19 0.11 0.04 0.04 4.9 6.4 112 +47% -41%

25.441 TAC2012−20% 0.27 0.16 0.06 0.06 6.6 8.6 103 +36% -20%

38.161 TAC2012+20% 0.43 0.25 0.09 0.09 10.2 13.0 87 +15% +20%

43 F2012 0.50 0.29 0.10 0.11 11.7 14.8 81 +7% +36%

43 Landings 2012 0.49 0.28 0.10 0.10 11.5 14.6 82 +8% +34%Mixed fisheries options – minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used (ICES, 2012b)

Maximum 49 A 0.77 NA NA NA NA NA 50 -34 % +55 %

Minimum 25 B 0.25 NA NA NA NA NA 114 51 % -20 %

Cod MP 25 C 0.29 NA NA NA NA NA 95 +25 % -20 %

SQ effort 42 D 0.55 NA NA NA NA NA 68 -10% +33 %

Effort_Mgt 30 E 0.32 NA NA NA NA NA 96 +26 % -6 %

Mixed fisheries options presented in advice for first time: TAC for cod is the limiting one in the North Sea


In 2012, for the North Sea, ICES presents for the first time in its advice:

an analysis of the implications of mixed fisheries under current TAC and effort regimes

•Catch advice for each stock on a single stock basis (based on MP, MSY framework or PA)

•Are the TACs corresponding to this advice in agreement with each other in mixed fisheries context?

•Or are TACs for some species likely to be exhausted much sooner than for others? (in which case, some species will be caught above or below the TAC)

Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks

Analysis assumes:•same fleet behaviour in 2012 and 2013 as in 2011 (same fishing pattern and catchability)

Five example mixed fisheries scenarios explored:min: fleets stop fishing when their first quota exhaustedmax: fleets stop fishing when their last quota exhaustedcod: fleets stop fishing when their cod quota exhaustedStatus quo effort: effort (E) equal to most recent yearEffort management: E reduced according to regulations

min and max not realistic, but provide boundaries

Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks ... continued

Scenario: Maximum Minimum Cod Status Quo Effort Effort Mgt

Stocks

Single-stock advice 2013

Saithe Plaice

Haddock

Whiting Cod

Nephrops, Sole

Predicted landings for 2013, per stock and per scenario TAC overshoot (hatched) and undershoot (below zero)

Individual stock objectives cannot all be achieved simultaneously

In 2013, the TAC (advice) for cod is the most limiting


Single-stock

Advice

SSB resulting from mixed-fisheries scenario 2014

Stock SSB result in 2014

‘Max’ ‘Min’ ‘Cod’ ‘SQ_E’ ‘Eff_mgt’

Cod 103 50 114 95 68 96 Haddock 203 145 231 207 175 217 Plaice 666 575 785 724 639 716 Saithe 252 200 316 286 236 261 Sole 49 42 60 56 47 52 Whiting 346 346 376 370 357 374 legend SSB 2014 > Bpa or MSY Btrigger SSB 2014 > Blim SSB 2014 < Blim

No reference points defined

SSB in 2014 according to single-stock advice and mixed-fisheries scenarios:


Fleets will change behaviour in response to their catch possibilities for different species – but difficult to predict

Full value of mixed fisheries models will be realized with input from managers and stakeholders on trade-offs between different species in catch; e.g.

•scenarios that take into account value of different species or other aspects influencing fleets’ behaviour

•scenarios that consider changes in fleets’ selectivities

•incorporation of mixed-fishery effects in LTMP


Biological interactions occur between fish from a population, across populations and with other components of the marine ecosystem.

Some aspects incorporated in ICES’ single-stock advice (e.g. natural mortality values that reflect history of predator populations) – but more progress is required

Density-dependent effects imply that all the expected increases in stock abundance based on an MSY approach on an individual stock basis are unlikely to occur simultaneously

Multi-species considerations

Response of the stocks to changes in fishing pressure will also be affected by biological interactions

In most regions, reliable predictive models accounting for the effect of biological interactions on stocks’ response do not exist at present. If that continues to be the case, a stock-by-stock MSY approach will be used based on the observed response of the stocks once they have been fished at FMSY

When reliable predictive models are developed: multispecies fishing strategies to be developed to achieve MSY on multispecies basis - requires evaluating trade-offs based on managers’ and stakeholders’ preferences

Multi-species considerations ... continued

In the 2012 advice, ICES presents an illustration concerning multi-species management for cod, herring and sprat fisheries in the Baltic:

•At this stage, work is illustrative•Meant as starting point for dialogue•Need to agree on objectives and risk tolerance•Will need a transition period•Focuses on most obvious interactions between cod, sprat and herring. Not a full ecosystem or food-web model

ICES will pursue further development of multi-species work with a view to integrate it into advice when ready


• For cod, sprat and herring in the Central Baltic Sea it could be possible:– to increase the sum of the sustainable yield of the 3

species combined in tonnes– to improve the growth of individual fish of the 3

species

• However,– cod yields will remain about the same– the probability of low cod SSB will increase

• Results assume full spatial overlap– Spatial overlap currently limited, cod in 25, sprat

and herring in 28-29 and 32


Advice for 2013 and 2014, DLS: Catch < 4 700 tF (Fishing Mortality)

2009–2011

MSY (FMSY) Unknown


Qualitative evaluation Above poss ref points


2009–2011


Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown Increas

Qualitative evaluation Above poss ref points

Total landings

Biomass index Tally book -Subarea VI

Biomass index Standardized cpue

* Landings and CPUE data from start of fishery

* CPUE from tally book in VI, considered the most reliable biomass index

* Growth faster than for other deep-water species

* Mixed trawl fisheries with roundnose grenadier and blue ling

* Trend in last 5 years: 20% increase* Precautionary margin: no because exploitation notdetrimental to stock

Black scabbardfish in Subareas VI, VII and Divisions Vb and XIIb

Advice for 2013 and 2014: No directed fisheries; reduce by-catch.

Catches well below historic levels, indicating depletion. No indication of recovery

* Red seabream: low productivity * By-catch in longline, gillnet and trawl fisheries; no catch data on recreational fisheries

F (Fishing Mortality)

2009–2011

MSY (FMSY) Unknown


Qualitative evaluation Unknown


2009–2011


Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown

Qualitative evaluation likely to be below Btrigger and Blim

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011*

La

nd

ing

s (

t)

Red seabream in Subareas VI, VII and VIII

Digest of official advice

Brief information on fish stocks 2012:

popular versionpopular version

http://www.ices.dk/http://www.ices.dk/products/products/

BriefInformation.aspBriefInformation.asp

Popular version

Comments to [email protected]

before 1st January 2013

Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM (Advisory Committee) Vice-chair ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) State of Fish Stocks in European Waters.

Documents

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msy hcr

fmsyhcr values

steps fmsyhcr transition

incomplete data

datalimited stocksmajority

main stocks

number of stocks