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Do Patients Hospitalized in High-Minority Hospitals
Experience More Diversion and Poorer Outcomes?
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-010263
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 14-Oct-2015
Complete List of Authors: Shen, Yu-Chu; Naval Postgraduate School, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy; National Bureau of Economic Research Hsia, Renee; UCSF, Emergency Medicine
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Cardiovascular medicine
Secondary Subject Heading: Emergency medicine
Keywords: ambulance diversion, treatment, health outcomes, racial disparities
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Do Patients Hospitalized in High-Minority Hospitals Experience More Diversion and
Poorer Outcomes?
Yu-Chu Shen, PhD1, Renee Y. Hsia, MD, MSc
2
1 Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA,
USA; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA, USA
2 Department of Emergency Medicine and Institute of Health Policy Studies, University of
California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
Corresponding author:
Yu-Chu Shen, PhD
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (831) 656-2951
Address: Naval Postgraduate School
555 Dyer Road, Code GB
Monterey, CA 93943
Key Words: ambulance diversion, treatment, health outcomes, racial disparities
Word count: 3,045
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ABSTRACT
Objective: We investigated the association between ambulance diversion and differences in
access, treatment, and outcomes between black and white patients.
Design: Retrospective analysis.
Setting: We linked daily ambulance diversion logs from 26 California counties between 2001
and 2011 to Medicare patient records with acute myocardial infarction and categorized patients
according to hours of diversion for their nearest emergency departments on their day of
admission: 0, <6, 6 to <12, and >12 hours. We compared the amount of diversion time between
hospitals serving high volume of black patients and other hospitals. We then use multivariate
models to analyze changes in outcomes when patients faced different levels of diversion, and
compared that change between black and white patients.
Participants: 28,683 Medicare patients from 26 California counties between 2001 and 2011.
Main Outcome Measures: (1) access to hospitals with cardiac technology; (2) treatment
received, and (3) health outcomes (30-day, 90-day, and 1-year death and 30-day readmission).
Results: Hospitals serving high volume of black patients spent more hours in diversion status
compared to other hospitals. Patients faced with the highest level of diversion had the lowest
probability of being admitted to hospitals with cardiac technology compared with those facing no
diversion, by 4.6% for cardiac care intensive unit, and 3.5% for catheterization lab and CABG
facilities. Patients experiencing increased diversion also had a 4.9% decreased likelihood of
receiving catheterization and 9.7% higher 1-year mortality.
Conclusions: Hospitals serving high volume of black patients are more likely to be on
diversion, and diversion is associated with poorer access to cardiac technology, lower probability
of receiving revascularization, and worse long-term mortality outcomes.
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ARTICLE SUMMARY
Strengths and limitations of this study:
• Links unique daily diversion data from hospitals in 17 local emergency medical services
agencies (LEMSAs) in California with patient-level data from Medicare between 2001-
2011.
• Utilizes actual driving distance between a patient’s ZIP code and the nearest hospital’s
longitude and latitude coordinates to identify the closest ED to a patient.
• Analyzes three dimensions of patient care – access, treatment, and outcomes – to explore
potential disparities between black and white patients experiencing ambulance diversion.
• Limitations include: potential reporting bias due to self-reported data by LEMSAs, lack
of generalizability outside of California, and a small sample of black patients.
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INTRODUCTION
Racial and ethnic differences in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) contribute
significantly to health disparities observed in the United States, and unfortunately have increased
over time.(1, 2) These disparities are particularly noticeable for critical and time-sensitive
diseases such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI),(3) with studies showing that black patients
are less likely than white patients to receive cardiac treatments such as angiography or
thrombolytic therapy after AMI.(4) Many potential explanations for these disparities have been
suggested, including individual patient factors such as a lack of awareness of AMI symptoms,(5)
physician bias,(6) and a distrust of the medical system that results in a hesitance to seek care.(7)
However, it is also important to consider the possibility that system-level mechanisms may be
partially responsible for these disparities,(8, 9) and particularly whether black Americans are less
likely than their white counterparts to receive needed treatment.(10)
One important system-level mechanism that is especially critical for time-sensitive
conditions such as AMI is ambulance diversion. Ambulance diversion occurs when emergency
departments (ED) are temporarily closed to ambulance traffic due to a variety of reasons, such as
overcrowding or lack of available resources, (11-17) and effectively creates a temporary
decrease in ED access. Past studies have found that ambulance diversion is associated with poor
health outcomes for patients suffering from AMI.(18, 19) A recent study further explored the
mechanisms through which ambulance diversions affect patients, and showed that patients whose
nearest hospital experiences significant diversion have poorer access to hospitals with cardiac
technologies, leading to a lower likelihood of receiving treatment with revascularization, and
increased mortality.(20) Few studies, however, have examined if ambulance diversion is
associated with health disparities.
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In this paper, we explore whether ambulance diversion affect black and white patients
differently. Using 100% of Medicare claims and daily ambulance diversion logs from 26
California counties between 2001 and 2011, we first compared the amount of ambulance
diversion time between hospitals serving large share of black patients and other hospitals. We
then analyzed changes in access, treatment, and outcomes between black and white patients
when both were exposed to ambulance diversion.
METHODS
Conceptual Model
Conceptually, ambulance diversion is a signal of a hospital operating beyond capacity,
and can affect patients who had to be diverted elsewhere as well as non-diverted patients within
the overcrowded ED. In order to better target potential areas for intervention, it is essential to
know exactly where the disparities occur. In our conceptual framework (Figure 1), we break
down the patient’s experience of ambulance diversion in stages and discuss the sources of
potential disparities at each stage. Figure 1 shows that in the first stage, a hospital experiences
resource constraints, mostly due to overcrowding in the ED, such that it cannot accept incoming
ambulance traffic. At this stage, a potential racial disparity exists if black patients are more
likely to be diverted than white patients because the ED closest to them is more likely to be on
diversion.
Some patients might then be routed to hospitals less technologically equipped to handle
complicated cardiac cases. At this stage, disparities could occur if black patients are more likely
to be diverted to less desirable settings than white patients, resulting in worse outcomes.
The decreased access to cardiac technology in turn could decrease the likelihood of
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patients receiving needed treatment. In addition, it is also possible that patients who need
advanced cardiac intervention during ambulance diversion periods have a lower likelihood of
receiving treatment even in a hospital equipped with cardiac technology, if crowding and limited
resources outstrip the capability of the staff to deploy their technology appropriately. Such
situation can affect patients who were already admitted to hospitals under diversion or patients
who were admitted to hospitals that have to treat the additional diverted patients. At this stage,
potential disparity exists if blacks receive inferior treatments compared to white patients, leading
to worse patient outcomes, when both are exposed to the same level of ambulance diversion.(17)
Our study therefore explores potential differences between black and white patients at
different stages of ambulance diversion. We first compare amount of ambulance diversion
between hospitals serving large share of black patients (henceforth “minority-serving hospitals”)
and others. We then examine whether racial disparities in ambulance diversion, if any, resulted
in differential health outcomes between black and white patients.
Data
We obtained patient data from 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review
(MedPAR), linked with vital files, between 2001 and 2011. We linked them with the Healthcare
Provider Cost Reporting Information System and American Hospital Association annual surveys
to obtain additional hospital-level information.
To identify each hospital’s daily ambulance diversion hours, we acquired daily
ambulance diversion logs provided by the California local emergency medical services agencies
(LEMSAs), which contain data for 17 out of the 23 LEMSAs that did not ban diversion for the
years of 2001-2011 (actual coverage dates vary by LEMSA). The 17 LEMSAs together represent
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88% of the California population. To identify the closest ED for a patient, we supplemented our
hospital data with longitude and latitude coordinates of the hospital’s physical address or heliport
(if one existed).(21) We obtained actual driving distance from the patient’s ZIP code centroid to
nearest hospital’s latitude and longitude coordinates based on Google Maps, using automation
codes developed in Stata.(22)
Patient Population
We identified the AMI population by extracting from 100% MedPAR records that had
410.x0 or 410.x1 as the principal diagnoses as done in previous studies,(18) were hospitalized
between 2001 and 2011, and reside in counties for which we had diversion data. We excluded
all patients who were not admitted through the ED, and patients whose admitting hospital was >
100 miles away from their mailing ZIP codes. For analysis of 30-day readmission, we excluded
patients who could not be readmitted to the hospital (for example, if the patient died during the
index admission) per CMS guidelines.(23)
Defining Minority Serving Hospitals
In the first part of our analysis, we performed a trend analysis of ambulance diversion
hours between hospitals serving large share of black patients and other hospitals. We
characterized hospitals’ share of black patients in 2 ways, using metrics from prior work. First,
we ranked each hospital by the proportion of total Medicare patient volume that is black at
baseline (2001),(24) and defined minority-serving hospitals as those who ranked in the top 10%.
Second, we also designated hospitals as a minority-serving if they provided care to more than
double the number of black patients compared with competing hospitals within a 15-mile radius
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of the facility in 2001.(18) This approach accounts for the distribution of the local population.
Defining Access, Treatment, and Health Outcomes
We evaluated three dimensions of patient care. We defined access as whether a patient
was admitted to a hospital with the following cardiac technology: cardiac care intensive unit,
catheterization lab, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery capacity.
We defined treatment received as whether a patient received a given procedure, identified
by the ICD-9 procedure codes on the MedPAR. We examine 3 common treatments for AMI:
percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), thrombolytic therapy, or CABG.
Finally, we analyzed 2 sets of patient health outcomes: death (whether a patient died
within X days from his ED admission, where X=30, 90, and 365 days) and readmission to the
hospital within 30 days of the index discharge.
Statistical models
We first explored whether racial disparities exist in the absolute amount – e.g., number of
hours - of ambulance diversion. Because diversion is measured at the hospital level, we
compared daily diversion trends between minority serving and non-minority serving hospitals
using the mean daily ambulance diversion hours. We use the nonparamaetric Kolmogorov-
Smirnov tests to test whether the two groups’ diversion trend distributions were the same.(25)
We then implemented a multivariate model to examine the patient outcomes (in terms of
access, treatment received, and health). For all outcomes, we implemented a linear probability
model with fixed effects for each ED that was identified as the closest ED for each patient while
controlling for time-dependent variables. The ED fixed effects eliminate any underlying
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differences across EDs and the communities they serve. Baseline differences might include but
not limited to possible differences in baseline diversion rate, baseline mortality rates, quality of
care, case-mix of the patient population, or other unobserved characteristics that might be
confounded with the outcomes.
For the key variables of interest, we created 3 dichotomous variables based on the
diversion level of the patient’s nearest ED, using previously defined categories of diversion: no
diversion (reference group); <6 hours; 6-12 hours; and ≥12 hours.(18, 20) To also investigate
possible differential outcomes as the result of diversion between black and white patients, we
added the interaction term between indicator for black patients and the three diversion categories.
We controlled for race (black, Hispanic, Asian, other minority), age, gender, as well as 22
comorbid measures based on prior work.(26) For admitting hospital organizational
characteristics, we controlled for hospital ownership, teaching status, size (measured by log
transformed total inpatient discharges), occupancy rate, system membership, and Herfindahl
index to capture the competitiveness of the hospital market within 15-mile radius (0 being
perfectly competitive and 1 being monopoly). Last, we included year indicators to capture the
macro trends.
For treatment outcomes, we estimated an additional model that controlled for cardiac
technology access. Results from these two models allow us to compare whether differences in
treatment received, if any, is the result of lack of technology access. For mortality outcomes, we
estimated a third model accounting for both cardiac technology and actual treatment received.
All models were estimated using Stata 13.(27)
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RESULTS
Figure 2 shows the trend in mean daily diversion hours among hospitals reporting any
diversion hours between non-minority-serving and minority-serving hospitals. Mean daily
diversion hours were higher in minority-serving hospitals than in non-minority-serving hospitals,
with an average difference 2 hours per day between the 2 groups (p<0.001 by nonparametric
Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests). We also examined the percent of patients who experienced
diversion over time if their closest ED was minority-serving compared with other hospitals, and
observed the same pattern.
Our sample included 28,683 patients for all outcomes, except for the readmission analysis
where the sample size was 22,058 patients. The first column of Table 1 shows that among all
patients, 14,628 patients (51%) experienced no diversion at their nearest ED on their day of
admission; for 25%, their nearest ED was on diversion for <6 hours; for 15%, their nearest ED
was on diversion for 6-12 hours; and for 9% their nearest ED was on diversion for >12 hours of
diversion. The next two sets of columns show that a larger percentage of black patients
experienced >12 hours of diversion than white patients (12% vs. 9%). The next panel in Table 1
shows the distribution of dependent variables. In general, blacks had a lower probability of
being admitted to hospitals with cardiac care technology, and a lower probability of receiving
catheterization. The raw mortality outcomes were similar between blacks and whites, but blacks
had a higher probability of being readmitted to hospitals within 30 days of discharge (42 vs.
36%).
Table 1 also reveals underlying demographic and comorbid differences between black
and white patients. Compared to whites, blacks who suffered from acute myocardial infarction
were more likely to be female, younger, and comorbid with either diabetes, renal failure, or
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hypertension.
While informative, the raw rates in Table 1 do not take into account potential differences
across individuals, hospitals and communities. Table 2 shows estimated results from Model 1.
The top panel shows the main effect whereas the bottom panel shows the interactive effect
between diversion and black patients (complete results in Supplementary Table 1). After
controlling for multiple factors, patients exposed to the highest level of diversion (>12 hours)
had worse access to cardiac technology—by -2.75 percentage points for access to cardiac care
intensive unit (95% CI: -4.94, -0.55) compared with patients who were admitted on a day with
no diversion; by -2.56 percentage points for access to catheterization lab (CI -4.33, -.8), and by -
2.28 percentage points for access to CABG facilities (CI -4.02, -0.54). This is equivalent to a
4.6% reduction in CCU access (the base rate for CCU is 60%), and 3.5% reduction in access to
catheterization lab and CABG facilities. In addition, patients exposed to the highest level of
diversion were less likely to receive catheterization, by 2.49 percentage points (CI -4.51, -0.46),
and had a higher 1-year mortality rate, by 2.82 percentage points (CI 0.76, 4.88). In other words,
patients in the highest diversion category had a decreased likelihood of receiving catheterization
by 4.9% (base rate is 15%) and higher 1-year mortality by 9.7% (base rate is 34%).
The bottom panel of Table 2 showed that in general, black and white patients had a
similar experience when facing the same level of diversion. The interaction terms in general
were not statistically significant at the conventional level, with two exceptions. Blacks in the
highest diversion category were less likely to receive thrombolytic therapy relative to whites
facing the same amount of diversion, and blacks in the low diversion category (<6 hours) had a
higher 1-year mortality relative to whites.
Table 3 shows results from the additional model where we controlled for cardiac
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technology access (for both treatment and health outcomes) and treatment received (for health
outcomes only). The notable difference, compared to Table 2, is that once we controlled for
technology access, the probability of receiving PCI was comparable across the diversion levels.
We still observed higher 1-year mortality rates among patients in the highest diversion category,
albeit with a slightly smaller magnitude. The interaction results were similar to those reported in
Table 2.
DISCUSSION
Our study provides a unique perspective into the mechanisms behind ambulance
diversion and health disparities. We hypothesized that ambulance diversion might affect black
and white patients differently through three potential mechanisms: differential amount of
exposure to diversion, differential access to cardiac technology, and differential treatment
received when both experience diversion. While these possibilities are not mutually exclusive
and could happen concurrently, our results mainly support the hypothesis of differential exposure
to ambulance diversion – in other words, blacks with AMI have higher exposure to ambulance
diversion, which is associated with higher long-term mortality. This is in contrast to explanations
where blacks receive differentially less access to technology or treatment compared with whites
when both experience the same diversion condition.
Our findings that minority-serving hospitals are more likely to experience ambulance
diversion than non-minority serving hospitals is concerning. Despite the overall decrease in
ambulance diversion over time, it appears that this decrease has not helped improve the
disparities in diversion. The disparate amount of diversion experienced by minority-serving
hospitals is concordant with previous literature, suggesting that there may be a fundamental
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misalignment in the supply and demand of emergency services at minority-serving hospitals
relative to non minority-serving hospitals.(28-30)
Our findings add support to evidence (18) that policies to reduce ambulance diversion can
improve access, treatment, and outcomes for patients. However, in order to narrow the gap in
disparities between black and white patients, more effort should be made to reduce the amount of
ambulance diversion at minority-serving hospitals. These interventions to target excessive
ambulance diversion in at minority-serving hospitals could also be in keeping with national goals
to decrease disparities at the system level. For example, the Department of Health and Human
Services has stated that one of their strategies to reduce disparities in the quality of care specific
to cardiovascular diseases is to implement policy and health system changes that include
reimbursement incentives.(31) In addition to devoting resources on individually-oriented
initiatives geared at educating physicians about biases in offering cardiac catheterization, then,
our findings suggest that thoughtful reflection about approaches to achieve equitable resource
allocation could be another effective mechanism in the long-term towards decreasing racial
disparities in healthcare.
Our results should be interpreted in light of several limitations. First, our diversion data is
self-reported by LEMSAs, with potential for errors and reporting bias. Second, our patient data
identify date but not time of admission. While we cannot verify with absolute certainty that a
patient was diverted, it is reasonable to assume longer hours of diversion is associated with lower
probability that a patient is admitted to this ED. In addition, the inability to clearly identify the
diverted and the non-diverted patients in our analysis implies that what we observe is the net
effect of ambulance diversion.
Second, our dataset contains the mailing ZIP codes for the patients, which may or may
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not be the same as their ZIP code of residence. There is also a possibility that the patient’s AMI
did not occur at home. With the exclusion criteria we imposed in selecting our sample, we
believe that this limitation should not affect our analyses.
We are aware that using driving distance to determine a patient’s geographical access to
EDs means that our study ignores the availability of the aeromedical transport network. We
believe that this omission does not affect our findings as aeromedical transportation is almost
always limited to inter-hospital (or trauma scene-to-hospital) transport, and is rarely, if ever, an
option for AMI patients in the field, even in remote rural areas.
Third, our dataset was limited to California, which, while a large and diverse state
representing 12% of the U.S. population, is not representative of the nation as a whole. Because
our patient sample was based on the Medicare population, our findings may not be applicable to
non-elderly population. Last, we have relatively small sample of black patients. Future studies
that incorporate non-Medicare populations could also increase the sample size for black patients,
and improve the statistical power of the analysis.
CONCLUSIONS
Our study shows that hospitals treating high volume of black patients experience a
significantly greater amount of ambulance diversion than non minority-serving hospitals. In
addition, patients whose nearest hospital experiences significant diversion have poorer access to
hospitals with cardiac technologies, leading to a lower likelihood of receiving treatment with
revascularization, and lower 1-year survival. We do not find that other downstream
consequences of ambulance diversion, such as decreased access to technology and treatment, are
differentially worse for black patients. Because diversion is asymmetrically experienced by
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hospitals that treat high volume of black patients, targeted efforts to decreased ED crowding and
ambulance diversion in these communities may be able to reduce disparities in quality of care
and, ultimately, outcomes.
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Contributorship:
Dr. Shen had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of
the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
Study concept and design: Shen, Hsia.
Acquisition of data: Shen, Hsia.
Analysis and interpretation of data: Shen, Hsia.
Drafting of the manuscript: Hsia.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Shen.
Statistical analysis: Shen.
Obtained funding: Shen, Hsia.
Administrative, technical, or material support: Shen, Hsia.
Study supervision: Shen.
Acknowledgements
We especially thank Harlan Krumholz (Yale University, New Haven CT) for providing
constructive suggestions on the manuscript; Jean Roth (National Bureau of Economic Research,
Cambridge MA) for assisting with obtaining and extracting the patient data; Nandita Sarkar
(NBER) for excellent programming support; Julia Brownell and Sarah Sabbagh (UCSF, San
Francisco CA) for technical assistance. None received additional compensation other than
University salary for their contributions.
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Competing Interest
We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and declare that we have no
competing interests.
Funding
This work was supported by the NIH/NHLBI (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute) Grant
Number 1R01HL114822 (Shen/Hsia). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and
do not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH.
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19. Yankovic N, Glied S, Green LV, et al. The impact of ambulance diversion on heart attack
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race and site of care. JAMA. 2011;305(7):675-81.
25. Riffenburgh RH. Statistics in medicine. Third edition. ed. Amsterdam: Elsevier/AP;
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26. Elixhauser A, Steiner C, Harris DR, et al. Comorbidity measures for use with
administrative data. Med Care. 1998;36(1):8-27.
27. StataCorp. Stata Statistical Software: Release 13. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP;
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28. Hsia RY, Asch SM, Weiss RE, et al. California hospitals serving large minority
populations were more likely than others to employ ambulance diversion. Health Aff (Millwood).
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29. Rice MF. Inner-city hospital closures/relocations: race, income status, and legal issues.
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do financial pressure and community characteristics matter? Med Care. 2009;47(9):968-78.
31. Department of Health & Human Services. HHS action plan to reduce racial and ethnic
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FIGURE LEGEND:
Figure 1. Conceptualizing stages of ambulance diversion and potential racial disparity
Figure 2. Trend in Ambulance Diversion between Minority-Serving and Non-Minority Serving
Hospitals: 2001-2011
TABLE LEGEND:
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics
Table 2. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment,
and Outcomes, Based on Model 1
Table 3. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment,
and Outcomes, Based on Alternative Models
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Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics
Whole Sample White Black
N (%) N (%) N (%)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission
no diversion 14628 (51%) 11457 (53%) 803 (49%) **
<6 hours 7173 (25%) 5259 (24%) 374 (23%)
[6-12) hours 4207 (15%) 3121 (14%) 260 (16%) *
>=12 hours 2675 (9%) 1933 (9%) 197 (12%) **
Access
admitted to hospital with cardiac care unit 19071 (66%) 14599 (67%) 1070 (65%)
admitted to hospital with cath lab 21368 (74%) 16477 (76%) 1181 (72%) **
admitted to hospital with CABG capacity 19271 (67%) 15140 (70%) 1014 (62%) **
Treatment received
received catheterization 13763 (48%) 10828 (50%) 655 (40%) **
received thrombolytic therapy 443 (2%) 335 (2%) 19 (1%)
received CABG 1667 (6%) 1285 (6%) 72 (4%) *
Health Outcomes
30-day mortality 4833 (17%) 3733 (17%) 246 (15%) *
90-day mortality 6559 (23%) 5038 (23%) 368 (23%)
1-year mortality 8865 (31%) 6826 (31%) 500 (31%)
30-day all cause readmission 7974 (36%) 6027 (36%) 538 (42%) **
Patient demographics
White 21770 (76%)
Black 1634 (6%)
Hispanic 1595 (6%)
Asian 2169 (8%)
Other non-white races 1468 (5%)
Female 14243 (50%) 10770 (49%) 926 (57%) **
Age distribution
65–69 4125 (14%) 3011 (14%) 344 (21%) **
70–74 4620 (16%) 3407 (16%) 305 (19%) **
75–79 5337 (19%) 3891 (18%) 341 (21%) **
80–84 5934 (21%) 4538 (21%) 285 (17%) **
85+ 8667 (30%) 6923 (32%) 359 (22%) **
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Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics (Continued)
Whole Sample White Black
N (%) N (%) N (%)
Patient comorbid conditions
Peripheral vascular disease 2096 (7%) 1638 (8%) 127 (8%)
Pulmonary Circulation disorders 637 (2%) 481 (2%) 44 (3%)
Diabetes (uncomp+complicated) 7674 (27%) 5183 (24%) 542 (33%) **
Renal failure 3647 (13%) 2521 (12%) 280 (17%) **
Liver disease 223 (1%) 155 (1%) 13 (1%)
Cancer 1056 (4%) 836 (4%) 80 (5%) *
Dementia 1111 (4%) 882 (4%) 70 (4%)
Valvular disease 3848 (13%) 3092 (14%) 185 (11%) **
Hypertension (uncomp+complicated) 17449 (61%) 12807 (59%) 1142 (70%) **
Chronic pulmonary disease 5645 (20%) 4343 (20%) 359 (22%) *
Rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascular 460 (2%) 378 (2%) 29 (2%)
Coagulation deficiency 955 (3%) 704 (3%) 53 (3%)
Obesity 1032 (4%) 808 (4%) 85 (5%) *
Substance abuse 447 (2%) 350 (2%) 46 (3%) **
Depression 759 (3%) 632 (3%) 35 (2%) *
Psychosis 392 (1%) 306 (1%) 29 (2%)
Hypothyroidism 2356 (8%) 2044 (9%) 60 (4%) **
Paralysis and other neurological disorder 2439 (9%) 1830 (8%) 178 (11%) **
Chronic Peptic ulcer disease 18 (0%) 12 (0%) 1 (0%)
Weight loss 590 (2%) 415 (2%) 49 (3%) **
Fluid and electrolyte disorders 5902 (21%) 4274 (20%) 394 (24%) **
Anemia (blood loss and deficiency) 3810 (13%) 2762 (13%) 266 (16%) **
patient 28683 21770 1634
Note: black and white differences statistically significant at * p<0.05 ** p<0.01
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Table 2. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment, and Outcomes, Based on Model 1
Access (admitting hospital has:) Treatment Outcomes
cardiac care unit cath lab CABG cath/PCI
thrombolytic therapy CABG
30-day mortality
90-day mortality
1-year mortality
30-day readmission
Base rate (among patients in reference group) (60%) (73%) (65%) (51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%)
Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission:
<6 hours -1.25 -1.73** -1.07 -0.89 0.15 -0.46 -0.17 0.19 -0.16 0.19
[-2.64,0.14] [-2.94,-0.52] [-2.25,0.12] [-2.32,0.54] [-0.27,0.58] [-1.24,0.32] [-1.29,0.95] [-1.12,1.51] [-1.64,1.31] [-1.69,2.07]
[6-12) hours -0.40 -0.87 -0.31 -1.36 -0.35 -0.54 0.26 0.38 0.38 0.45
[-2.05,1.25] [-2.47,0.73] [-1.90,1.27] [-3.05,0.33] [-0.82,0.12] [-1.49,0.41] [-1.09,1.61] [-1.12,1.89] [-1.29,2.05] [-1.68,2.58]
>=12 hours -2.75* -2.57** -2.28* -2.49* -0.12 -0.31 1.02 1.71 2.82** 2.02
[-4.94,-0.55] [-4.33,-0.80] [-4.02,-0.54] [-4.51,-0.46] [-0.72,0.48] [-1.34,0.72] [-0.72,2.76] [-0.11,3.54] [0.76,4.88] [-0.69,4.73]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion -2.63 2.29 3.46 -1.71 -0.93 0.42 0.83 3.88 5.08* 2.11
(<6 hours) [-7.57,2.30] [-2.40,6.98] [-1.56,8.48] [-7.32,3.90] [-2.46,0.59] [-2.29,3.12] [-3.57,5.23] [-0.62,8.38] [0.05,10.11] [-4.45,8.66]
X medium diversion -1.71 -0.33 0.22 -0.01 -0.72 2.88 3.13 5.09 2.11 1.71
[6-12) hours [-7.62,4.20] [-6.37,5.71] [-5.82,6.26] [-6.71,6.69] [-2.22,0.78] [-0.31,6.07] [-2.39,8.65] [-0.35,10.52] [-3.52,7.74] [-6.40,9.81] X high diversion 2.91 -1.99 -0.32 2.08 -2.49** -0.63 2.74 2.51 0.20 -1.56
(>= 12 hours) [-2.83,8.64] [-7.67,3.69] [-5.90,5.27] [-4.14,8.31] [-4.04,-0.94] [-4.08,2.83] [-2.62,8.10] [-3.89,8.90] [-6.54,6.94] [-11.49,8.38]
Control for tech access N/A N/A N/A No No No No No No No
Control for treatment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A No No No No
N 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 22058
* Nearest ED Based on Google query of driving distance * p<0.05 ** p<0.01
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Table 3. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment, and Outcomes, Based on Alternative Models
Treatment Outcomes
cath/PCI thrombolytic
therapy CABG 30-day
mortality 90-day
mortality 1-year
mortality 30-day
readmission
Base rate (among patients in reference group) (51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%) Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission:
<6 hours -0.48 0.14 -0.41 -0.18 0.18 -0.20 0.20
[-1.88,0.91] [-0.29,0.56] [-1.19,0.38] [-1.29,0.94] [-1.13,1.49] [-1.67,1.27] [-1.68,2.08]
[6-12) hours -1.21 -0.35 -0.53 0.27 0.38 0.37 0.48
[-2.87,0.45] [-0.82,0.12] [-1.49,0.42] [-1.08,1.61] [-1.12,1.89] [-1.30,2.04] [-1.66,2.62]
>=12 hours -1.73 -0.16 -0.18 0.98 1.67 2.73** 1.96
[-3.69,0.23] [-0.76,0.44] [-1.20,0.84] [-0.75,2.71] [-0.14,3.49] [0.68,4.79] [-0.76,4.68]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion (<6 hours) -2.93 -0.85 0.22 0.91 3.96 5.24* 2.35
[-8.49,2.62] [-2.38,0.68] [-2.52,2.96] [-3.50,5.32] [-0.55,8.48] [0.20,10.29] [-4.22,8.91] X medium diversion [6-12) hours -0.10 -0.71 2.87 3.14 5.10 2.13 1.62
[-6.27,6.08] [-2.20,0.78] [-0.30,6.04] [-2.39,8.68] [-0.34,10.54] [-3.51,7.77] [-6.52,9.77]
X high diversion (>=12 hours) 2.44 -2.50** -0.65 2.76 2.50 0.17 -1.82
[-3.56,8.44] [-4.04,-0.97] [-4.06,2.76] [-2.60,8.13] [-3.89,8.89] [-6.59,6.94] [-11.71,8.08]
Control for tech access Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Control for treatment N/A N/A N/A Yes Yes Yes Yes
N 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 28683 22058
* Nearest ED Based on Google query of driving distance * p<0.05 ** p<0.01
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Figure 1. Conceptualizing stages of ambulance diversion and potential racial disparity
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Figure 2. Trend in Ambulance Diversion between Minority-Serving and Non-
Minority Serving Hospitals: 2001-2011
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Supplementary Table 1. Full Regression Results Based on Model 1
Access (admitting hospital has:) Treatment Outcomes
Base rate (among patients in
reference group)
cardiac
unit
care
(60%)
cath lab
(73%)
CABG
(65%)
cath/PCI
(51%)
thrombolytic
therapy
(1%)
CABG
(6%)
30-day
mortality
(16%)
90-day
mortality
(22%)
1-year
mortality
(29%)
30-day
readmission
(34%)
Diversion status (Reference
group: nearest ED not on
diversion on the day of
admission)
<6 hours
-1.25+
-1.73**
-1.07+
-0.89
0.15
-0.46
-0.17
0.18
-0.18
0.19
(0.71)
(0.62) (0.60)
(0.73) (0.22) (0.40)
(0.57) (0.67) (0.76) (0.96)
[6-12) hours -0.40
-0.87 -0.31
-1.36 -0.35 -0.54
0.26 0.39 0.38 0.45
(0.84)
(0.82) (0.80)
(0.86) (0.24) (0.48)
(0.69) (0.77) (0.85) (1.09)
>=12 hours -2.74*
-2.56** -2.28*
-2.49* -0.12 -0.31
1.02 1.73+ 2.84** 2.04
(1.12)
(0.90) (0.89)
(1.03) (0.30) (0.53)
(0.89) (0.93) (1.05) (1.38)
Interaction between black patients
and diversion level: -2.59 2.31 3.50 -1.73 -0.92 0.40 0.88 3.96+ 5.22* 2.16
X low diversion (<6 hours) (2.51) (2.39) (2.56) (2.86) (0.77) (1.37) (2.24) (2.30) (2.56) (3.34)
-1.68 -0.32 0.24 -0.03 -0.71 2.87+ 3.16 5.14+ 2.21 1.75
X medium diversion [6-12) hours (3.01) (3.08) (3.08) (3.41) (0.76) (1.62) (2.81) (2.76) (2.87) (4.13)
2.93 -1.98 -0.30 2.07 -2.49** -0.63 2.77 2.54 0.27 -1.54
X high diversion (>=12 hours) (2.93) (2.89) (2.84) (3.17) (0.79) (1.76) (2.73) (3.25) (3.43) (5.06)
-0.29 -0.45 -0.67+ -5.13** -0.15 -2.73** -0.24 0.25 0.02 3.36**
(0.44) (0.39) (0.38) (0.54) (0.16) (0.30) (0.45) (0.49) (0.52) (0.64)
Patient demographics
Female -0.29 -0.45 -0.67+ -5.13** -0.15 -2.73** -0.24 0.25 0.02 3.36**
(0.44) (0.39) (0.38) (0.54) (0.16) (0.30) (0.45) (0.49) (0.52) (0.64)
Black -1.54 -2.99+ -2.42 -6.59** 0.11 -2.02* -2.99* -2.55+ -2.69* 4.33*
(1.66) (1.54) (1.62) (1.95) (0.45) (0.83) (1.16) (1.32) (1.37) (2.10)
hispanic -2.68* -1.79* -2.58** -0.39 -0.49 -0.34 -2.41* -1.65 -2.75* 0.92
(1.10) (0.89) (0.98) (1.25) (0.37) (0.56) (0.97) (1.14) (1.20) (1.65)
other minority race -1.59 -2.28** -2.38** -2.56* 0.15 0.72 -0.32 -1.14 -2.12* -3.53*
(1.02) (0.84) (0.87) (1.14) (0.38) (0.68) (0.94) (1.00) (1.05) (1.40)
age 70-74 -0.01 0.30 0.46 -2.88** -0.77* -1.41* 1.23* 2.17** 3.29** 2.77*
(0.79) (0.68) (0.79) (0.85) (0.32) (0.60) (0.62) (0.68) (0.75) (1.12)
age 75-79 -0.28 0.37 0.24 -6.24** -0.49 -0.87 3.23** 4.88** 6.95** 7.98**
(0.75) (0.66) (0.73) (0.86) (0.33) (0.64) (0.63) (0.72) (0.81) (1.10)
age 80-84 -0.35 0.18 -0.75 -13.72** -0.84** -3.49** 8.02** 11.84** 15.05** 12.42**
(0.77) (0.61) (0.68) (0.91) (0.32) (0.60) (0.73) (0.80) (0.86) (1.17)
age 85+ -1.37+ -0.96 -0.97 -33.70** -1.29** -7.09** 16.21** 22.23** 29.33** 16.56**
(0.75) (0.64) (0.71) (1.02) (0.31) (0.56) (0.65) (0.73) (0.75) (1.11)
Patient comorbid conditions
Peripheral vascular disease 1.73* 0.75 1.73* 2.06* -0.51* 0.92+ -0.27 1.04 1.34 1.80
(0.81) (0.68) (0.71) (1.01) (0.24) (0.54) (0.82) (0.95) (1.00) (1.28)
Pulmonary Circulation disorders -1.37 -1.04 -0.65 -6.66** 0.12 -0.54 1.75 3.83* 6.88** 2.33
(1.37) (1.20) (1.21) (1.91) (0.48) (0.96) (1.67) (1.87) (1.90) (2.22)
Diabetes -0.43 0.13 -0.61 -4.61** -0.33+ -0.24 -2.01** -1.73** 0.15 1.91**
(0.48) (0.46) (0.48) (0.60) (0.17) (0.29) (0.46) (0.51) (0.58) (0.71)
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Renal failure -1.90** -0.31 -0.63 -11.86** -0.68** -0.58 7.21** 10.61** 14.25** 6.64**
(0.70) (0.53) (0.60) (0.86) (0.17) (0.41) (0.79) (0.85) (0.90) (1.03)
Cancer 0.59 0.60 -0.89 -17.43** -0.58+ -3.54** 15.42** 22.07** 30.46** 5.56**
(1.07) (0.90) (1.01) (1.46) (0.33) (0.62) (1.42) (1.45) (1.42) (1.85)
Dementia -2.41+ -0.12 -0.83 -13.11** 0.06 -0.58 3.40* 4.54** 8.08** 3.21
(1.29) (1.14) (1.07) (1.32) (0.36) (0.47) (1.56) (1.67) (1.70) (2.01)
Valvular disease 1.86** 0.85+ 1.64** -1.61+ -0.48* 3.17** -0.18 1.67* 4.08** 2.02*
(0.63) (0.51) (0.57) (0.82) (0.19) (0.48) (0.66) (0.71) (0.77) (0.96)
Hypertension -1.23** 0.25 -0.20 4.55** -0.21 -0.91** -9.18** -11.56** -12.88** -6.55**
(0.45) (0.37) (0.41) (0.56) (0.15) (0.30) (0.47) (0.49) (0.55) (0.70)
Chronic pulmonary disease 0.29 -0.33 -0.74 -6.02** -0.28 -0.23 0.23 2.69** 5.88** 5.64**
(0.61) (0.51) (0.54) (0.67) (0.18) (0.32) (0.54) (0.59) (0.65) (0.83)
Rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascu1.14 0.04 -1.58 -2.23 -0.23 -1.81* -2.53 -2.86 -2.60 -2.54
(1.56) (1.38) (1.36) (1.88) (0.53) (0.91) (1.57) (1.76) (2.08) (2.36)
Coagulation deficiency -1.66 1.15 0.80 -0.37 -0.54+ 11.08** 6.94** 9.82** 9.82** 5.76**
(1.20) (0.98) (1.02) (1.46) (0.32) (1.16) (1.43) (1.49) (1.62) (1.81)
Obesity -0.02 -3.25** -2.21+ 1.68 -0.35 -0.33 -3.31** -4.51** -7.28** -3.33*
(1.23) (1.04) (1.15) (1.46) (0.39) (0.78) (0.76) (0.84) (0.95) (1.53)
Substance abuse 0.75 0.49 -2.82 -4.94* -0.35 -0.67 -1.95 -2.38 0.04 6.10*
(1.80) (1.80) (1.73) (2.07) (0.58) (1.25) (1.48) (1.61) (1.88) (2.76)
Depression 0.65 -0.32 0.17 -4.79** -0.26 -0.93 -2.45* -1.60 -1.25 3.15
(1.33) (1.17) (1.20) (1.60) (0.41) (0.66) (1.10) (1.38) (1.58) (2.01)
Hypothyroidism 0.75 0.07 -0.03 -0.41 -0.33 -1.27** -5.66** -6.28** -6.48** -1.85+
(0.84) (0.72) (0.77) (0.91) (0.25) (0.39) (0.69) (0.82) (0.90) (1.09)
Paralysis and other neurological dis -0.28 -1.99* -1.69* -12.51** -0.61* -1.80** 6.96** 8.19** 10.07** 11.46**
(0.90) (0.79) (0.81) (1.03) (0.24) (0.44) (0.91) (0.98) (0.97) (1.33)
Weight loss -2.63 -0.91 -5.07** -12.36** -1.13** 0.95 9.73** 17.60** 18.47** 15.83**
(1.72) (1.55) (1.49) (1.95) (0.28) (1.03) (2.01) (2.11) (2.12) (2.31)
Fluid and electrolyte disorders -0.74 -2.76** -2.47** -12.77** -0.38* 0.47 10.11** 11.86** 12.11** 11.80**
(0.60) (0.53) (0.59) (0.71) (0.18) (0.38) (0.63) (0.68) (0.72) (0.91)
Anemia 0.21 0.29 0.31 -3.65** -0.37+ 1.81** -4.45** -4.01** -2.13** 2.36*
(0.66) (0.53) (0.55) (0.78) (0.20) (0.46) (0.66) (0.73) (0.73) (0.99)
Admitting hospital characteristics
for-profit hospital 9.88** 0.20 -6.38* -2.25 -0.56+ -0.15 0.05 0.79 2.28* 1.37
(2.14) (2.17) (2.68) (2.09) (0.31) (0.47) (0.85) (0.94) (0.98) (1.07)
government hospital -17.57** -2.68 -11.29** -5.08* 0.05 -1.17* 3.90** 4.11** 3.50** -0.07
(3.44) (3.33) (3.56) (2.11) (0.31) (0.59) (1.21) (1.26) (1.33) (1.49)
teaching hospital 9.51** -8.08* -16.66** -11.54** 0.61+ -2.28** 0.12 -0.50 0.17 -0.36
(3.04) (3.73) (3.44) (2.51) (0.37) (0.77) (1.07) (1.14) (1.19) (1.64)
hosopital beds (log transformed) 24.26** 35.14** 39.78** 21.67** -0.85** 3.75** -0.83 -0.62 -0.79 -3.37**
(2.22) (2.38) (2.80) (1.91) (0.22) (0.40) (0.56) (0.67) (0.71) (0.91)
occpuancy rate 52.94** 62.76** 61.48** 45.91** -2.61** 3.48** -6.19** -6.79** -6.88** -10.52**
(5.62) (5.18) (6.62) (4.30) (0.71) (1.20) (1.93) (2.14) (2.30) (2.78)
hospital is part of a system -4.11* 3.84** 8.84** 2.24* -0.13 1.12** -1.52* -2.11** -2.29** -1.12
(1.66) (1.39) (1.74) (0.99) (0.23) (0.36) (0.62) (0.69) (0.72) (0.99)
hospital HHI, based on 15-mi radius 3.71 13.21 11.38 20.75** 1.80 4.09+ -7.19+ -5.08 -3.84 -9.02
N 28,683 28,683 28,683 28,683 28,683 28,683 28,683 28,683 28,683 22,058
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Do Patients Hospitalized in High-Minority Hospitals Experience More Diversion and Poorer Outcomes? A
Retrospective Multivariate Analysis of Medicare Patients in California
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-010263.R1
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 20-Jan-2016
Complete List of Authors: Shen, Yu-Chu; Naval Postgraduate School, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy; National Bureau of Economic Research Hsia, Renee; UCSF, Emergency Medicine
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Cardiovascular medicine
Secondary Subject Heading: Emergency medicine
Keywords: ambulance diversion, treatment, health outcomes, racial disparities
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Do Patients Hospitalized in High-Minority Hospitals Experience More Diversion and
Poorer Outcomes? A Retrospective Multivariate Analysis of Medicare Patients in
California
Yu-Chu Shen, PhD1, Renee Y. Hsia, MD, MSc
2
1 Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA,
USA; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA, USA
2 Department of Emergency Medicine and Institute of Health Policy Studies, University of
California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
Corresponding author:
Yu-Chu Shen, PhD
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (831) 656-2951
Address: Naval Postgraduate School
555 Dyer Road, Code GB
Monterey, CA 93943
Key Words: ambulance diversion, treatment, health outcomes, racial disparities
Word count: 3,059
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ABSTRACT
Objective: We investigated the association between crowding as measured by ambulance
diversion and differences in access, treatment, and outcomes between black and white patients.
Design: Retrospective analysis.
Setting: We linked daily ambulance diversion logs from 26 California counties between 2001
and 2011 to Medicare patient records with acute myocardial infarction and categorized patients
according to hours in diversion status for their nearest emergency departments on their day of
admission: 0, <6, 6 to <12, and >12 hours. We compared the amount of diversion time between
hospitals serving high volume of black patients and other hospitals. We then use multivariate
models to analyze changes in outcomes when patients faced different levels of diversion, and
compared that change between black and white patients.
Participants: 29,939 Medicare patients from 26 California counties between 2001 and 2011.
Main Outcome Measures: (1) access to hospitals with cardiac technology; (2) treatment
received, and (3) health outcomes (30-day, 90-day, and 1-year death and 30-day readmission).
Results: Hospitals serving high volume of black patients spent more hours in diversion status
compared to other hospitals. Patients faced with the highest level of diversion had the lowest
probability of being admitted to hospitals with cardiac technology compared with those facing no
diversion, by 4.4% for cardiac care intensive unit, and 3.4% for catheterization lab and CABG
facilities. Patients experiencing increased diversion also had a 4.3% decreased likelihood of
receiving catheterization and 9.6% higher 1-year mortality.
Conclusions: Hospitals serving high volume of black patients are more likely to be on
diversion, and diversion is associated with poorer access to cardiac technology, lower probability
of receiving revascularization, and worse long-term mortality outcomes.
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ARTICLE SUMMARY
Strengths and limitations of this study:
• Links unique daily diversion data from hospitals in 17 local emergency medical services
agencies (LEMSAs) in California with patient-level data from Medicare between 2001-
2011.
• Utilizes actual driving distance between a patient’s ZIP code and the nearest hospital’s
longitude and latitude coordinates to identify the closest ED to a patient.
• Analyzes three dimensions of patient care – access, treatment, and outcomes – to explore
potential disparities between black and white patients experiencing ambulance diversion.
• Limitations include: potential reporting bias due to self-reported data by LEMSAs,
diversion status is measured at the hospital level and not for individual patient, lack of
generalizability outside of California, and a small sample of black patients.
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INTRODUCTION
Racial and ethnic differences in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) contribute
significantly to health disparities observed in the United States, and unfortunately have increased
over time.(1, 2) These disparities are particularly noticeable for critical and time-sensitive
diseases such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI),(3) with studies showing that black patients
are less likely than white patients to receive cardiac treatments such as angiography or
thrombolytic therapy after AMI.(4) Many potential explanations for these disparities have been
suggested, including individual patient factors such as a lack of awareness of AMI symptoms,(5)
physician bias,(6) and a distrust of the medical system that results in a hesitance to seek care.(7)
However, it is also important to consider the possibility that system-level mechanisms may be
partially responsible for these disparities,(8, 9) and particularly whether black Americans are less
likely than their white counterparts to receive needed treatment.(10)
One important system-level mechanism that is especially critical for time-sensitive
conditions such as AMI is ambulance diversion. Ambulance diversion occurs when emergency
departments (ED) are temporarily closed to ambulance traffic due to a variety of reasons, such as
overcrowding or lack of available resources, (11-17) and effectively creates a temporary
decrease in ED access. Past studies have found that ambulance diversion is associated with poor
health outcomes for patients suffering from AMI.(18, 19) A recent study further explored the
mechanisms through which ambulance diversions affect patients, and showed that patients whose
nearest hospital experiences significant diversion have poorer access to hospitals with cardiac
technologies, leading to a lower likelihood of receiving treatment with revascularization, and
increased mortality.(20) Few studies, however, have examined if ambulance diversion is
associated with health disparities.
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Conceptually, ambulance diversion is a signal of a hospital operating beyond capacity,
and can affect patients who have to be diverted elsewhere as well as non-diverted patients within
the overcrowded ED. Ambulance diversion has been used as a proxy for ED crowding.(21-23)
In order to better target potential areas for intervention, it is essential to know exactly where the
disparities occur when a patient experiences ambulance diversion. Figure 1 shows that in the
first stage, a hospital experiences resource constraints, mostly due to overcrowding in the ED,
such that it cannot accept incoming ambulance traffic. At this stage, a potential racial disparity
exists if black patients are more likely to be diverted than white patients because the ED closest
to them is more likely to be on diversion.
Some patients might then be routed to hospitals less technologically equipped to handle
complicated cardiac cases. At this stage, disparities could occur if black patients are more likely
to be diverted to less desirable settings than white patients, resulting in worse outcomes.
The decreased access to cardiac technology in turn could decrease the likelihood of
patients receiving needed treatment. In addition, it is also possible that patients who need
advanced cardiac intervention during ambulance diversion periods have a lower likelihood of
receiving treatment even in a hospital equipped with cardiac technology, if crowding and limited
resources outstrip the capability of the staff to deploy their technology appropriately. At this
stage, a potential disparity exists if blacks receive inferior treatments compared to white patients,
leading to worse patient outcomes, when both are exposed to the same level of ambulance
diversion.(17)
Our study therefore explored potential differences between black and white patients at
different stages of ambulance diversion, using 100% of Medicare claims and daily ambulance
diversion logs from 26 California counties between 2001 and 2011. We first compared amount
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of ambulance diversion between hospitals serving large share of black patients (henceforth
“minority-serving hospitals”) and others. We then examined whether racial disparities in
ambulance diversion, if any, resulted in differential health outcomes between black and white
patients.
METHODS
Data
We obtained patient data from 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review
(MedPAR), linked with vital files, between 2001 and 2011. We linked them with the Healthcare
Provider Cost Reporting Information System and American Hospital Association annual surveys
to obtain additional hospital-level information.
To identify each hospital’s daily ambulance diversion hours, we acquired daily
ambulance diversion logs provided by the California local emergency medical services agencies
(LEMSAs). California has a total 33 LEMSAs, but 10 of them banned diversion for the years of
2001-2011. We excluded counties with diversion ban from our analysis, since they do not
contribute to our understanding of the relationship between diversion and patient outcomes. We
obtained data for 17 out of the 23 LEMSAs that did not ban diversion (actual coverage dates
vary by LEMSA). The 17 LEMSAs together represent 88% of the California population. To
identify the closest ED for a patient, we supplemented our hospital data with longitude and
latitude coordinates of the hospital’s physical address or heliport (if one existed).(24) We
obtained actual driving distance from the patient’s ZIP code centroid to nearest hospital’s
latitude and longitude coordinates based on Google Maps, using automation codes developed in
Stata.(25)
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Patient Population
We identified the AMI population by extracting from 100% MedPAR records that had
410.x0 or 410.x1 as the principal diagnoses as done in previous studies,(18) were hospitalized
between 2001 and 2011, and resided in counties for which we had diversion data. We excluded
all patients who were not admitted through the ED, and patients whose admitting hospital was >
100 miles away from their mailing ZIP codes. For analysis of 30-day readmission, we excluded
patients who could not be readmitted to the hospital (for example, if the patient died during the
index admission) per CMS guidelines.(26)
Defining Minority Serving Hospitals
In the first part of our analysis, we performed a trend analysis of ambulance diversion
hours between hospitals serving large share of black patients and other hospitals. We
characterized hospitals’ share of black patients in 2 ways, using metrics from prior work. First,
we ranked each hospital by the proportion of total Medicare patient volume that is black at
baseline (2001),(27) and defined minority-serving hospitals as those who ranked in the top 10%.
Second, we also designated hospitals as a minority-serving if they provided care to more than
double the number of black patients compared with competing hospitals within a 15-mile radius
of the facility in 2001.(18) This approach accounts for the distribution of the local population.
Defining Access, Treatment, and Health Outcomes
We evaluated three dimensions of patient care. We defined access as whether a patient
was admitted to a hospital with the following cardiac technology: cardiac care intensive unit,
catheterization lab, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery capacity.
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We defined treatment received as whether a patient received a given procedure, identified
by the ICD-9 procedure codes on the MedPAR. We examined 3 common treatments for AMI:
percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), thrombolytic therapy, or CABG.
Finally, we analyzed 2 sets of patient health outcomes: death (whether a patient died
within X days from his ED admission, where X=30, 90, and 365 days) and readmission to the
hospital within 30 days of the index discharge.
Statistical models
We first explored whether racial disparities exist in the absolute amount – e.g., number of
hours - of ambulance diversion. Because diversion is measured at the hospital level, we
compared daily diversion trends between minority serving and non-minority serving hospitals
using the mean daily ambulance diversion hours. We use the nonparamaetric Kolmogorov-
Smirnov tests to test whether the two groups’ diversion trend distributions were the same.(28)
We then implemented a multivariate model to examine the patient outcomes (in terms of
access, treatment received, and health). For all outcomes, we implemented a linear probability
model with fixed effects for each ED that was identified as the closest ED for each patient while
controlling for time-dependent variables. The ED fixed effects eliminated any underlying
differences across EDs and the communities they serve. Baseline differences might include but
not limited to possible differences in baseline diversion rate, baseline mortality rates, quality of
care, case-mix of the patient population, or other unobserved characteristics that might be
confounded with the outcomes.
For the key variables of interest, we created 3 dichotomous variables based on the
diversion level of the patient’s nearest ED, using previously defined categories of diversion: no
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diversion (reference group); <6 hours; 6-12 hours; and ≥12 hours.(18, 20) To also investigate
possible differential outcomes as the result of diversion between black and white patients, we
added the interaction term between indicator for black patients and the three diversion categories.
We controlled for race (black, Hispanic, Asian, other minority, unknown/missing race),
age, gender, as well as 22 comorbid measures based on prior work.(29) For admitting hospital
organizational characteristics, we controlled for hospital ownership, teaching status, size
(measured by log transformed total inpatient discharges), occupancy rate, system membership,
and Herfindahl index to capture the competitiveness of the hospital market within 15-mile radius
(0 being perfectly competitive and 1 being monopoly). Last, we included year indicators to
capture the macro trends.
For treatment outcomes, we estimated an additional model that controlled for cardiac
technology access. Results from these two models allowed us to compare whether differences in
treatment received, if any, are the result of lack of technology access. For mortality outcomes,
we estimated a third model accounting for both cardiac technology and actual treatment received.
All models were estimated using Stata 13.(30) This study was exempted from the Committee on
Human Research at the University of California, San Francisco.
RESULTS
Figure 2 shows the trend in mean daily diversion hours among hospitals reporting any
diversion hours between non-minority-serving and minority-serving hospitals. Mean daily
diversion hours were higher in minority-serving hospitals than in non-minority-serving hospitals,
with an average difference 2 hours per day between the 2 groups (p<0.001 by nonparametric
Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests). We also examined the percent of patients who experienced
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diversion over time if their closest ED was minority-serving compared with other hospitals, and
observed the same pattern. Table 1 shows that the minority-serving and other hospitals are
similar in most dimensions (bed size, cardiac care capacity, occupancy rate, teaching status),
except that a higher share of minority serving hospitals are government-run (22% vs. 12%,
p<0.01) and are located in more concentrated markets as measured by the Herfindahl index (0.2
vs. 0.15, p<0.01).
Our sample included 29,939 patients for all outcomes, except for the readmission analysis
where the sample size was 22,058 patients. Among all patients, 15,202 patients (51%)
experienced no diversion at their nearest ED on their day of admission; for 25%, their nearest ED
was on diversion for <6 hours; for 15%, their nearest ED was on diversion for 6-12 hours; and
for 10% their nearest ED was on diversion for >12 hours of diversion (Table 1). In addition, a
larger percentage of black patients experienced >12 hours of diversion than white patients (12%
vs. 9%, p<0.01). In general, blacks had a lower probability of being admitted to hospitals with
cardiac care technology, and a lower probability of receiving catheterization. The raw mortality
outcomes were similar between blacks and whites, but blacks had a higher probability of being
readmitted to hospitals within 30 days of discharge (40 vs. 34%, p<0.01).
Table 2 also reveals underlying demographic and comorbid differences between black
and white patients. Compared to whites, blacks who suffered from acute myocardial infarction
were more likely to be female, younger, and comorbid with either diabetes, renal failure, or
hypertension.
While informative, the raw rates in Table 2 do not take into account potential differences
across individuals, hospitals and communities. Table 3 shows estimated results from Model 1
(complete results in Supplementary Table 1). After controlling for multiple factors, patients
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exposed to the highest level of diversion (>12 hours) had worse access to cardiac technology—
by -2.61 percentage points for access to cardiac care intensive unit (95% CI: -4.81, -0.4)
compared with patients who were admitted on a day with no diversion; by -2.44 percentage
points for access to catheterization lab (CI -4.24, -.65), and by -2.25 percentage points for access
to CABG facilities (CI -4.02, -0.48). This is equivalent to a 4.4% reduction in CCU access (the
base rate for CCU is 60%), and 3.4% reduction in access to catheterization lab and CABG
facilities. In addition, patients exposed to the highest level of diversion were less likely to
receive catheterization, by 2.19 percentage points (CI -4.19, 0.19), and had a higher 1-year
mortality rate, by 2.78 percentage points (CI 0.76, 4.8). In other words, patients in the highest
diversion category had a decreased likelihood of receiving catheterization by 4.3% (base rate is
51%) and higher 1-year mortality by 9.6% (base rate is 29%).
Results from the interaction terms between black patients and diversion status showed
that in general, black and white patients had a similar experience when facing the same level of
diversion. The interaction terms in general were not statistically significant at the conventional
level, with two exceptions. Blacks in the highest diversion category were less likely to receive
thrombolytic therapy relative to whites facing the same amount of diversion, and blacks in the
low diversion category (<6 hours) had a higher 1-year mortality relative to whites.
Table 4 shows results from the additional model where we controlled for cardiac
technology access (for both treatment and health outcomes) and treatment received (for health
outcomes only). The notable difference, compared to Table 3, is that once we controlled for
technology access, the probability of receiving PCI was comparable across the diversion levels.
We still observed higher 1-year mortality rates among patients in the highest diversion category,
albeit with a slightly smaller magnitude. The interaction results were similar to those in Table 3.
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DISCUSSION
Our study provides a unique perspective into the mechanisms behind ambulance
diversion and health disparities. We hypothesized that ambulance diversion might affect black
and white patients differently through three potential mechanisms: differential amount of
exposure to diversion, differential access to cardiac technology, and differential treatment
received when both experience diversion. While these possibilities are not mutually exclusive
and could happen concurrently, our results mainly support the hypothesis of differential exposure
to ambulance diversion – in other words, blacks with AMI have higher exposure to ambulance
diversion because a larger share of black patients go to minority-serving hospitals, and longer
exposure to ambulance diversion is associated with higher long-term mortality. This is in
contrast to explanations where blacks receive differentially less access to technology or treatment
compared with whites when both experience the same diversion condition.
Our findings that minority-serving hospitals are more likely to experience ambulance
diversion than non-minority serving hospitals is concerning. Despite the overall decrease in
ambulance diversion over time, it appears that this decrease has not helped improve the
disparities in diversion. The disparate amount of diversion experienced by minority-serving
hospitals is concordant with previous literature, suggesting that there may be a fundamental
misalignment in the supply and demand of emergency services at minority-serving hospitals
relative to non minority-serving hospitals.(31-33)
Our findings add support to evidence (18) that policies to reduce ambulance diversion can
improve access, treatment, and outcomes for patients. However, in order to narrow the gap in
disparities between black and white patients, more effort should be made to reduce the amount of
ambulance diversion at minority-serving hospitals. These interventions to target excessive
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ambulance diversion in at minority-serving hospitals could also be in keeping with national goals
to decrease disparities at the system level. For example, the Department of Health and Human
Services has stated that one of their strategies to reduce disparities in the quality of care specific
to cardiovascular diseases is to implement policy and health system changes that include
reimbursement incentives.(34) In addition to devoting resources on individually-oriented
initiatives geared at educating physicians about biases in offering cardiac catheterization, then,
our findings suggest that thoughtful reflection about approaches to achieve equitable resource
allocation could be another effective mechanism in the long-term towards decreasing racial
disparities in healthcare.
Our results should be interpreted in light of several limitations. First, our diversion data is
self-reported by LEMSAs, with potential for errors and reporting bias. Second, our diversion
status is identified at the hospital level and not at the individual patient level, and our patient data
identify date but not time of admission. While we cannot verify with absolute certainty that a
patient was diverted, it is reasonable to assume longer hours of diversion is associated with lower
probability that a patient is admitted to this ED. In addition, the inability to clearly identify the
diverted and the non-diverted patients in our analysis implies that what we observe is the net
effect of ambulance diversion.
Third, our dataset contains the mailing ZIP codes for the patients, which may or may not
be the same as their ZIP code of residence. There is also a possibility that the patient’s AMI did
not occur at home. With the exclusion criteria we imposed in selecting our sample, we believe
that this limitation should not affect our analyses.
We are aware that using driving distance to determine a patient’s geographical access to
EDs means that our study ignores the availability of the aeromedical transport network. We
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believe that this omission does not affect our findings as aeromedical transportation is almost
always limited to inter-hospital (or trauma scene-to-hospital) transport, and is rarely, if ever, an
option for AMI patients in the field, even in remote rural areas.
Forth, our dataset was limited to California, which, while a large and diverse state
representing 12% of the U.S. population, is not representative of the nation as a whole. Because
our patient sample was based on the Medicare population, our findings may not be applicable to
non-elderly population. Last, we have a relatively small sample of black patients. Future studies
that incorporate non-Medicare populations could also increase the sample size for black patients,
and improve the statistical power of the analysis.
CONCLUSIONS
Our study showed that hospitals treating high volume of black patients experienced a
significantly greater amount of ambulance diversion than non minority-serving hospitals. In
addition, patients whose nearest hospital experienced significant diversion had poorer access to
hospitals with cardiac technologies, leading to a lower likelihood of receiving treatment with
revascularization and lower 1-year survival. We did not find that other downstream
consequences of ambulance diversion, such as decreased access to technology and treatment,
were differentially worse for black patients. Because diversion is asymmetrically experienced by
hospitals that treat high volume of black patients, targeted efforts to decreased ED crowding and
ambulance diversion in these communities may be able to reduce disparities in quality of care
and, ultimately, outcomes.
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Contributorship:
Dr. Shen had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of
the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
Study concept and design: Shen, Hsia.
Acquisition of data: Shen, Hsia.
Analysis and interpretation of data: Shen, Hsia.
Drafting of the manuscript: Hsia.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Shen.
Statistical analysis: Shen.
Obtained funding: Shen, Hsia.
Administrative, technical, or material support: Shen, Hsia.
Study supervision: Shen.
Acknowledgements
We especially thank Harlan Krumholz (Yale University, New Haven CT) for providing
constructive suggestions on the manuscript; Jean Roth (National Bureau of Economic Research,
Cambridge MA) for assisting with obtaining and extracting the patient data; Nandita Sarkar
(NBER) for excellent programming support; Julia Brownell and Sarah Sabbagh (UCSF, San
Francisco CA) for technical assistance. None received additional compensation other than
University salary for their contributions.
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Competing Interest
We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and declare that we have no
competing interests.
Funding
This work was supported by the NIH/NHLBI (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute) Grant
Number 1R01HL114822 (Shen/Hsia). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and
do not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH.
Data sharing
No additional data available.
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FIGURE LEGEND:
Figure 1. Conceptualizing Stages of Ambulance Diversion and Potential Racial Disparity
Figure 2. Monthly Trend in Ambulance Diversion between Minority-Serving and Non-Minority
Serving Hospitals: 2001-2011
TABLE LEGEND:
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Hospital Characteristics
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics
Table 3. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment,
and Outcomes, Based on Model 1
Table 4. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment,
and Outcomes, Based on Alternative Models
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Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Hospital Characteristics
Mean (SD) All Hospitals
Non-minority serving Hospitals
Minority-serving Hospitals
Minority-serving hospitals 24%
(43%)
Due to definition 1: in the top decile for proportion of all back patients in California 17%
(38%)
Due to definition 2: treat twice as many black patients than other hospitals in their geographic proximity 7%
(25%)
Cardiac care capacity
Has cath lab 60% 60% 59%
(49%) (49%) (49%)
Has cardiac care unit 57% 58% 54%
(50%) (49%) (50%)
Has CABG capacity 48% 49% 48%
(50%) (50%) (50%)
For-profit hospitals 26% 26% 28%
(44%) (44%) (45%)
Government hospitals 14% 12% 22% **
(35%) (32%) (41%)
Teaching hospitals 9% 9% 9%
(29%) (29%) (29%)
Member of a system 68% 69% 64%
(47%) (46%) (48%)
Mean total beds in hospital 232.89 231.39 237.58
(130.69) (130.14) (132.47)
Mean occupancy rate 0.64 0.64 0.65
(0.16) (0.16) (0.15)
Mean HHI index1 0.16 0.15 0.20
**
(0.18) (0.16) (0.22)
Number of hopistal years 1563 1186 377
Note: non-minority serving and minority-serving hospital differences statistically significant at * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 1. The HHI index captures competitiveness of the hospitals' market (defined as within 15-mile radius): the
scale goes from 0 to 1 where 0 represents perfectly competitive market and 1 represents monopoly.
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Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics
Whole Sample White Black
N (%) N (%) N (%)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission
no diversion 15202 (51%) 11439 (53%) 798 (50%) **
<6 hours 7514 (25%) 5169 (24%) 374 (23%)
[6-12) hours 4472 (15%) 3006 (14%) 263 (16%) *
>=12 hours 3069 (10%) 1998 (9%) 194 (12%) **
Access
admitted to hospital with cardiac care unit 19846 (66%) 14265 (67%) 1066 (66%)
admitted to hospital with cath lab 22257 (74%) 16101 (75%) 1180 (73%) **
admitted to hospital with CABG capacity 20042 (67%) 14761 (69%) 1016 (63%) **
Treatment received
received catheterization 14181 (47%) 10532 (49%) 649 (40%) **
received thrombolytic therapy 450 (2%) 305 (1%) 16 (1%)
received CABG 1695 (6%) 1216 (6%) 69 (4%) *
Health Outcomes
30-day mortality 4835 (16%) 3507 (16%) 234 (15%) *
90-day mortality 6593 (22%) 4759 (22%) 355 (22%)
1-year mortality 9447 (32%) 6824 (32%) 516 (32%)
30-day all cause readmission 7974 (34%) 5638 (34%) 507 (40%) **
Patient demographics
White 21414 (72%)
Black 1612 (5%)
Hispanic 1578 (5%)
Asian 2126 (7%)
Other non-white races 1391 (5%)
Unknown/missing race 1818 (6%)
Female 14906 (50%) 10612 (50%) 913 (57%) **
Age distribution
65–69 4231 (14%) 2920 (14%) 335 (21%) **
70–74 4756 (16%) 3292 (15%) 305 (19%) **
75–79 5531 (18%) 3764 (18%) 330 (20%) **
80–84 6197 (21%) 4455 (21%) 271 (17%) **
85+ 9224 (31%) 6983 (33%) 371 (23%) **
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Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics (Continued)
Whole Sample White Black
N (%) N (%) N (%)
Patient comorbid conditions
Peripheral vascular disease 2195 (7%) 1623 (8%) 127 (8%)
Pulmonary Circulation disorders 683 (2%) 494 (2%) 48 (3%)
Diabetes (uncomp+complicated) 8028 (27%) 5127 (24%) 530 (33%) **
Renal failure 3965 (13%) 2669 (12%) 301 (19%) **
Liver disease 241 (1%) 155 (1%) 18 (1%)
Cancer 1127 (4%) 837 (4%) 79 (5%) *
Dementia 1171 (4%) 865 (4%) 67 (4%)
Valvular disease 4070 (14%) 3085 (14%) 184 (11%) **
Hypertension (uncomp+complicated) 18196 (61%) 12667 (59%) 1127 (70%) **
Chronic pulmonary disease 5965 (20%) 4340 (20%) 369 (23%) *
Rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascular 489 (2%) 383 (2%) 29 (2%)
Coagulation deficiency 988 (3%) 690 (3%) 49 (3%)
Obesity 1062 (4%) 796 (4%) 80 (5%) *
Substance abuse 461 (2%) 343 (2%) 44 (3%) **
Depression 790 (3%) 625 (3%) 34 (2%) *
Psychosis 405 (1%) 298 (1%) 30 (2%)
Hypothyroidism 2462 (8%) 2004 (9%) 58 (4%) **
Paralysis and other neurological disorder 2565 (9%) 1806 (8%) 178 (11%) **
Chronic Peptic ulcer disease 19 (0%) 12 (0%) 1 (0%)
Weight loss 623 (2%) 416 (2%) 51 (3%) **
Fluid and electrolyte disorders 6187 (21%) 4267 (20%) 392 (24%) **
Anemia (blood loss and deficiency) 4034 (13%) 2735 (13%) 270 (17%) **
patient 29939 21414 1612
Note: black and white differences statistically significant at * p<0.05 ** p<0.01
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Table 3. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment, and Outcomes, Based on Model 1
Access (admitting hospital has:) Treatment Outcomes
cardiac care unit cath lab CABG cath/PCI
thrombolytic therapy CABG
30-day mortality
90-day mortality
1-year mortality
30-day readmission
Base rate (among patients in reference group) (60%) (73%) (65%) (51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%)
Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission:
<6 hours -1.40* -1.70** -0.94 -0.86 0.18 -0.42 -0.24 0.11 -0.20 -0.02
[-2.74,-0.05] [-2.91,-0.49] [-2.11,0.23] [-2.23,0.51] [-0.23,0.59] [-1.17,0.34] [-1.31,0.83] [-1.15,1.36] [-1.66,1.25] [-1.86,1.82]
[6-12) hours -0.40 -0.79 -0.25 -1.27 -0.27 -0.50 0.29 0.40 0.21 0.57
[-2.03,1.22] [-2.41,0.82] [-1.83,1.33] [-2.91,0.37] [-0.72,0.18] [-1.42,0.42] [-1.04,1.62] [-1.08,1.89] [-1.43,1.86] [-1.48,2.62]
>=12 hours -2.61* -2.44** -2.25* -2.19* -0.14 -0.29 1.10 1.78* 2.78** 2.12
[-4.81,-0.40] [-4.24,-0.65] [-4.02,-0.48] [-4.81,-0.40] [-0.72,0.43] [-1.29,0.71] [-0.60,2.81] [0.01,3.55] [0.76,4.80] [-0.55,4.79]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion -0.76 2.51 3.79 -2.16 -1.11 0.12 0.20 2.71 5.56* 2.35
(<6 hours) [-5.62,4.10] [-2.15,7.17] [-1.18,8.77] [-7.85,3.52] [-2.51,0.29] [-2.48,2.72] [-4.16,4.56] [-1.71,7.12] [0.25,10.86] [-4.13,8.83]
X medium diversion -0.12 1.08 3.05 -0.08 -0.93 2.77 3.43 4.94 2.55 0.60
[6-12) hours [-5.73,5.49] [-4.81,6.98] [-2.89,9.00] [-7.13,6.97] [-2.25,0.39] [-0.40,5.94] [-2.28,9.14] [-0.65,10.53] [-3.16,8.26] [-7.81,9.02]
X high diversion 3.37 -2.38 1.41 0.30 -2.70** -0.87 2.58 2.49 1.61 -0.28
(>= 12 hours) [-2.88,9.63] [-8.82,4.05] [-4.54,7.36] [-6.24,6.84] [-4.20,-1.19] [-4.32,2.58] [-3.33,8.50] [-4.29,9.27] [-5.83,9.05] [-11.01,10.45]
Control for tech access N/A N/A N/A No No No No No No No
Control for treatment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A No No No No
N 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 23199
* Nearest ED Based on Google query of driving distance * p<0.05 ** p<0.01
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Table 4. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment, and Outcomes, Based on Alternative Models
Treatment Outcomes
cath/PCI thrombolytic
therapy CABG 30-day
mortality 90-day
mortality 1-year
mortality 30-day
readmission
Base rate (among patients in reference group) (51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%) Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission) Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission:
<6 hours -0.51 0.16 -0.37 -0.25 0.09 -0.24 0.00
[-1.85,0.84] [-0.24,0.57] [-1.13,0.38] [-1.31,0.82] [-1.16,1.35] [-1.68,1.21] [-1.84,1.84]
[6-12) hours -1.15 -0.27 -0.49 0.30 0.40 0.21 0.60
[-2.77,0.47] [-0.72,0.18] [-1.41,0.43] [-1.03,1.62] [-1.08,1.89] [-1.43,1.85] [-1.46,2.65]
>=12 hours -1.46 -0.18 -0.17 1.07 1.74 2.70** 2.07
[-3.40,0.48] [-0.75,0.40] [-1.16,0.83] [-0.63,2.76] [-0.02,3.50] [0.69,4.71] [-0.61,4.74]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion (<6 hours) -3.42 -1.03 -0.10 0.29 2.79 5.73* 2.53
[-9.05,2.20] [-2.44,0.38] [-2.73,2.53] [-4.08,4.65] [-1.63,7.22] [0.41,11.05] [-3.96,9.03] X medium diversion [6-12) hours -1.00 -0.87 2.58 3.52 5.01 2.69 0.63
[-7.65,5.64] [-2.18,0.45] [-0.56,5.72] [-2.21,9.24] [-0.59,10.62] [-3.04,8.41] [-7.85,9.12]
X high diversion (>=12 hours) 0.22 -2.67** -1.01 2.67 2.54 1.66 -0.44
[-5.89,6.33] [-4.19,-1.16] [-4.42,2.40] [-3.26,8.60] [-4.22,9.31] [-5.79,9.11] [-11.13,10.26]
Control for tech access Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Control for treatment N/A N/A N/A Yes Yes Yes Yes
N 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 23199
* Nearest ED Based on Google query of driving distance * p<0.05 ** p<0.01
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Figure 1. Conceptualizing Stages of Ambulance Diversion and Potential Racial Disparity 108x81mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Figure 2. Monthly Trend in Ambulance Diversion between Minority-Serving and Non-Minority Serving Hospitals: 2001-2011
Note: Each month of every year is plotted from January 2001 to December 2011. 108x78mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Supplementary Table 1. Full Regression Results Based on Model 1
Access (admitting hospital has:)
Treatment Outcomes
cardiac care unit cath lab CABG unit
cath/PCI
thrombolytic
therapy CABG
30-day
mortality
90-day
mortality 1-year mortality
30-day
readmission
Base rate (among
patients in reference group) (60%) (73%) (65%)
(51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%)
Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission)
<6 hours -1.40* -1.70** -0.94
-0.86 0.18 -0.42 -0.24 0.11 -0.20 -0.02
[-2.74,-0.05] [-2.91,-0.49] [-2.11,0.23]
[-2.23,0.51] [-0.23,0.59] [-1.17,0.34] [-1.31,0.83] [-1.15,1.36] [-1.66,1.25] [-1.86,1.82]
[6-12) hours -0.40 -0.79 -0.25
-1.27 -0.27 -0.50 0.29 0.40 0.21 0.57
[-2.03,1.22] [-2.41,0.82] [-1.83,1.33]
[-2.91,0.37] [-0.72,0.18] [-1.42,0.42] [-1.04,1.62] [-1.08,1.89] [-1.43,1.86] [-1.48,2.62]
>=12 hours -2.61* -2.44** -2.25*
-2.19* -0.14 -0.29 1.10 1.78* 2.78** 2.12
[-4.81,-0.40] [-4.24,-0.65] [-4.02,-0.48] [-4.19,-0.19] [-0.72,0.43] [-1.29,0.71] [-0.60,2.81] [0.01,3.55] [0.76,4.80] [-0.55,4.79]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion -0.76 2.51 3.79
-2.16 -1.11 0.12 0.20 2.71 5.56* 2.35
(<6 hours) [-5.62,4.10] [-2.15,7.17] [-1.18,8.77]
[-7.85,3.52] [-2.51,0.29] [-2.48,2.72] [-4.16,4.56] [-1.71,7.12] [0.25,10.86] [-4.13,8.83]
X medium diversion -0.12 1.08 3.05
-0.08 -0.93 2.77 3.43 4.94 2.55 0.60
[6-12) hours [-5.73,5.49] [-4.81,6.98] [-2.89,9.00]
[-7.13,6.97] [-2.25,0.39] [-0.40,5.94] [-2.28,9.14] [-0.65,10.53] [-3.16,8.26] [-7.81,9.02]
X high diversion 3.37 -2.38 1.41
0.30 -2.70** -0.87 2.58 2.49 1.61 -0.28
(>=12 hours) [-2.88,9.63] [-8.82,4.05] [-4.54,7.36]
[-6.24,6.84] [-4.20,-1.19] [-4.32,2.58] [-3.33,8.50] [-4.29,9.27] [-5.83,9.05]
[-
11.01,10.45]
Patient demographics
Female -0.26 -0.35 -0.76*
-5.26** -0.15 -2.67** -0.19 0.26 -0.03 3.29**
[-1.10,0.59] [-1.11,0.41] [-1.48,-0.04]
[-6.29,-4.22] [-0.44,0.13] [-3.22,-2.12] [-1.04,0.65] [-0.67,1.19] [-1.06,1.00] [2.08,4.51]
Black -1.65 -2.39 -1.95
-5.78** 0.16 -1.77* -2.78* -2.10 -2.53 4.17
[-4.71,1.41] [-5.29,0.51] [-4.97,1.06]
[-9.44,-2.12] [-0.69,1.01] [-3.28,-0.26] [-5.03,-0.52] [-4.51,0.31] [-5.24,0.17] [-0.02,8.36]
hispanic -2.70* -1.44 -2.46*
0.34 -0.17 -0.05 -2.42* -1.55 -3.36** 2.00
[-4.87,-0.52] [-3.15,0.27] [-4.36,-0.56]
[-2.13,2.81] [-0.93,0.59] [-1.18,1.08] [-4.37,-0.48] [-3.86,0.77] [-5.69,-1.02] [-1.26,5.26]
asian -0.78 0.25 -0.17
1.29 -0.25 0.41 -1.33 -2.05 -3.44** -0.72
[-2.70,1.14] [-1.54,2.03] [-2.08,1.74]
[-0.84,3.41] [-0.81,0.30] [-0.67,1.49] [-3.30,0.63] [-4.31,0.20] [-5.63,-1.24] [-3.64,2.20]
other minority race -1.27 -2.38* -2.32*
-1.60 0.09 0.96 -0.85 -1.83 -2.77* -3.05*
[-3.54,1.01] [-4.23,-0.52] [-4.15,-0.48]
[-3.95,0.74] [-0.69,0.86] [-0.38,2.30] [-2.70,1.00] [-3.91,0.26] [-4.97,-0.57] [-5.97,-0.13]
unknown/missing -0.62 0.61 -2.00
-1.95 0.60 -5.56** 2.68 -1.22 -3.92 -6.53
race [-6.11,4.87] [-3.45,4.66] [-6.38,2.39]
[-8.58,4.67] [-0.47,1.68] [-9.61,-1.51] [-2.68,8.05] [-7.14,4.70] [-10.33,2.48] [-14.19,1.13]
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cardiac care unit cath lab CABG unit cath/PCI
thrombolytic
therapy CABG
30-day
mortality
90-day
mortality 1-year mortality
30-day
readmission
age 70-74 0.16 0.44 0.58
-2.76** -0.82* -1.32* 1.18 2.01** 3.44** 2.53*
[-1.37,1.69] [-0.90,1.78] [-0.96,2.12]
[-4.41,-1.11] [-1.46,-0.18] [-2.48,-0.17] [-0.02,2.37] [0.70,3.33] [1.97,4.92] [0.38,4.69]
age 75-79 -0.05 0.37 0.36
-6.20** -0.59 -0.94 3.02** 4.58** 7.28** 7.31**
[-1.49,1.39] [-0.92,1.66] [-1.07,1.79]
[-7.86,-4.53] [-1.23,0.05] [-2.16,0.29] [1.81,4.23] [3.21,5.95] [5.68,8.88] [5.25,9.37]
age 80-84 -0.14 0.17 -0.60
-13.87** -0.93** -3.45** 7.57** 11.30** 15.11** 11.30**
[-1.61,1.32] [-1.01,1.34] [-1.88,0.69]
[-15.64,-12.10] [-1.55,-0.31] [-4.61,-2.30] [6.21,8.94] [9.80,12.79] [13.40,16.81] [9.09,13.51]
age 85+ -0.99 -0.90 -0.67
-33.74** -1.38** -6.98** 14.94** 20.62** 28.96** 14.37**
[-2.44,0.46] [-2.14,0.34] [-2.04,0.69]
[-35.75,-31.73] [-1.97,-0.78] [-8.06,-5.91] [13.70,16.18] [19.24,22.00] [27.45,30.47] [12.28,16.46]
Patient comorbid conditions
Peripheral vascular 1.67* 0.70 1.62*
2.44* -0.53* 0.98 -0.32 0.96 1.55 1.70
disease [0.16,3.17] [-0.60,1.99] [0.28,2.97]
[0.50,4.39] [-0.98,-0.09] [-0.05,2.01] [-1.87,1.22] [-0.85,2.77] [-0.44,3.53] [-0.73,4.13]
Pulmonary -0.52 -0.76 -0.34
-6.98** 0.08 -0.63 1.31 3.50 6.96** 1.88
Circulation disorders [-3.17,2.14] [-3.09,1.58] [-2.68,1.99]
[-10.63,-3.33] [-0.80,0.96] [-2.39,1.12] [-1.77,4.40] [-0.02,7.03] [3.32,10.61] [-2.21,5.98]
Diabetes -0.45 -0.06 -0.77
-4.78** -0.29 -0.33 -2.00** -1.76** 0.49 1.69*
[-1.38,0.49] [-0.95,0.83] [-1.72,0.18]
[-5.94,-3.63] [-0.61,0.03] [-0.88,0.22] [-2.89,-1.11] [-2.73,-0.79] [-0.65,1.64] [0.36,3.02]
Renal failure -2.01** -0.42 -0.71
-12.42** -0.58** -0.71 6.31** 9.63** 13.86** 5.12**
[-3.30,-0.72] [-1.43,0.59] [-1.87,0.45]
[-14.06,-10.79] [-0.91,-0.26] [-1.47,0.04] [4.86,7.75] [8.06,11.20] [12.18,15.54] [3.22,7.02]
Cancer -0.01 0.26 -0.97
-17.20** -0.60* -3.61** 14.15** 20.47** 29.90** 4.43*
[-2.00,1.99] [-1.49,2.00] [-2.90,0.96]
[-19.94,-14.47] [-1.20,-0.00] [-4.77,-2.44] [11.49,16.82] [17.75,23.20] [27.20,32.59] [0.95,7.90]
Dementia -2.71* 0.19 -0.73
-12.91** 0.06 -0.60 3.15* 4.37** 7.97** 3.10
[-5.26,-0.15] [-1.99,2.38] [-2.83,1.37]
[-15.49,-10.33] [-0.61,0.72] [-1.49,0.29] [0.23,6.07] [1.22,7.53] [4.74,11.20] [-0.67,6.87]
Valvular disease 1.66** 0.83 1.59**
-1.65* -0.45* 3.06** -0.40 1.16 4.05** 1.41
[0.48,2.84] [-0.15,1.82] [0.47,2.71]
[-3.22,-0.07] [-0.81,-0.09] [2.16,3.96] [-1.63,0.83] [-0.18,2.49] [2.53,5.57] [-0.41,3.23]
Hypertension -1.29** 0.27 -0.20
4.35** -0.22 -0.92** -8.69** -10.92** -12.25** -5.83**
[-2.17,-0.41] [-0.45,0.99] [-0.99,0.59]
[3.29,5.42] [-0.51,0.06] [-1.49,-0.35] [-9.59,-7.79] [-11.89,-9.96] [-13.29,-11.20] [-7.15,-4.52]
Chronic pulmonary 0.15 -0.34 -0.70
-6.25** -0.29 -0.37 0.03 2.36** 5.90** 4.84**
disease [-1.02,1.32] [-1.34,0.65] [-1.75,0.35]
[-7.55,-4.94] [-0.64,0.06] [-1.00,0.25] [-0.99,1.05] [1.25,3.47] [4.66,7.14] [3.26,6.42]
Rheumatoid arthritis 0.67 -0.40 -2.00
-2.94 -0.23 -1.66 -2.88 -3.42* -2.81 -3.37
[-2.20,3.54] [-2.90,2.09] [-4.51,0.51]
[-6.57,0.69] [-1.21,0.75] [-3.38,0.06] [-5.82,0.05] [-6.74,-0.09] [-6.74,1.12] [-7.84,1.10]
Coagulation -1.42 0.98 0.67
-0.56 -0.55 10.67** 6.95** 9.97** 9.84** 5.90**
deficiency [-3.71,0.87] [-0.90,2.86] [-1.27,2.61]
[-3.38,2.26] [-1.16,0.06] [8.45,12.89] [4.26,9.64] [7.17,12.78] [6.81,12.87] [2.40,9.40]
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cardiac care unit cath lab CABG unit cath/PCI
thrombolytic
therapy CABG
30-day
mortality
90-day
mortality 1-year mortality
30-day
readmission
Obesity 0.14 -3.18** -2.10
2.10 -0.37 -0.31 -3.29** -4.48** -7.90** -3.06*
[-2.27,2.54] [-5.19,-1.18] [-4.32,0.13]
[-0.68,4.89] [-1.12,0.37] [-1.81,1.19] [-4.74,-1.84] [-6.10,-2.86] [-9.75,-6.04] [-5.95,-0.17]
Substance abuse 0.40 -0.00 -3.62*
-5.23* -0.40 -0.71 -1.85 -2.24 0.20 6.38*
[-3.17,3.97] [-3.65,3.64] [-7.19,-0.05]
[-9.28,-1.18] [-1.51,0.70] [-3.13,1.71] [-4.68,0.99] [-5.35,0.86] [-3.53,3.93] [1.07,11.68]
Depression 0.37 -0.59 -0.10
-4.60** -0.30 -0.74 -2.43* -1.69 -1.50 3.29
[-2.12,2.85] [-2.82,1.65] [-2.37,2.17]
[-7.66,-1.55] [-1.09,0.48] [-2.02,0.54] [-4.55,-0.32] [-4.33,0.95] [-4.60,1.61] [-0.60,7.19]
Hypothyroidism 0.90 0.20 0.21
-0.56 -0.29 -1.28** -5.35** -5.84** -5.88** -1.73
[-0.69,2.50] [-1.15,1.54] [-1.22,1.65]
[-2.27,1.15] [-0.75,0.18] [-2.01,-0.55] [-6.66,-4.04] [-7.39,-4.29] [-7.60,-4.16] [-3.78,0.33]
Paralysis and other -0.21 -1.99** -1.68*
-12.61** -0.62** -1.82** 6.47** 7.58** 9.79** 10.28**
neurological disordr [-1.91,1.48] [-3.49,-0.49] [-3.20,-0.15]
[-14.58,-10.64] [-1.07,-0.17] [-2.63,-1.00] [4.77,8.18] [5.75,9.41] [7.87,11.70] [7.76,12.79]
Weight loss -2.28 -1.21 -4.68**
-11.27** -1.09** 1.14 9.06** 16.27** 18.18** 13.94**
[-5.50,0.94] [-4.16,1.75] [-7.47,-1.89]
[-14.95,-7.60] [-1.61,-0.57] [-0.87,3.14] [5.30,12.82] [12.32,20.23] [14.09,22.27] [9.59,18.29]
Fluid and electrolyte -0.73 -2.75** -2.40**
-12.53** -0.38* 0.56 9.78** 11.53** 11.57** 11.27**
disorders [-1.89,0.44] [-3.79,-1.70] [-3.53,-1.27]
[-13.91,-11.15] [-0.72,-0.04] [-0.15,1.27] [8.58,10.98] [10.24,12.81] [10.17,12.96] [9.53,13.01]
Anemia 0.01 0.04 0.06
-3.78** -0.38* 1.61** -4.48** -4.13** -1.80* 1.67
[-1.25,1.27] [-0.96,1.04] [-1.00,1.11]
[-5.28,-2.28] [-0.75,-0.01] [0.77,2.45] [-5.70,-3.26] [-5.51,-2.75] [-3.24,-0.35] [-0.18,3.53]
for-profit hospital 10.47** -0.21 -6.64*
-2.46 -0.56 -0.15 0.01 0.67 2.22* 1.26
[6.26,14.68] [-4.45,4.03] [-11.90,-1.39]
[-6.59,1.67] [-1.15,0.04] [-1.05,0.74] [-1.62,1.64] [-1.13,2.46] [0.29,4.16] [-0.77,3.30]
government hospital -17.10** -3.10 -11.38**
-4.88* 0.04 -1.02 3.70** 3.94** 3.06* -0.23
[-23.95,-10.24] [-9.79,3.60] [-18.36,-4.39]
[-8.86,-0.89] [-0.54,0.61] [-2.13,0.09] [1.42,5.98] [1.52,6.36] [0.41,5.71] [-3.04,2.59]
teaching hospital 9.26** -7.78* -16.37**
-11.77** 0.62 -2.35** 0.23 -0.36 0.20 -0.30
[3.19,15.32] [-15.14,-0.42] [-23.12,-9.62]
[-16.62,-6.91] [-0.08,1.33] [-3.82,-0.87] [-1.82,2.29] [-2.53,1.80] [-2.10,2.50] [-3.39,2.78]
hospital beds 24.28** 34.80** 39.49**
21.60** -0.84** 3.64** -0.82 -0.62 -0.71 -3.09**
(log transformed) [19.88,28.68] [30.05,39.55] [33.90,45.08]
[17.84,25.35] [-1.25,-0.43] [2.85,4.42] [-1.85,0.22] [-1.85,0.62] [-2.05,0.63] [-4.76,-1.42]
occupancy rate 53.15** 63.20** 61.63**
45.02** -2.56** 3.56** -6.52** -7.48** -6.89** -11.13**
[42.08,64.22] [53.15,73.25] [48.65,74.61]
[36.70,53.33] [-3.91,-1.21] [1.25,5.86] [-10.18,-2.87] [-11.57,-3.39] [-11.39,-2.38]
[-16.39,-
5.86]
hospital is part of a -4.07* 3.71** 8.96**
2.42* -0.12 1.15** -1.45* -2.06** -2.38** -1.16
system [-7.35,-0.79] [0.97,6.44] [5.51,12.41]
[0.50,4.33] [-0.55,0.31] [0.44,1.86] [-2.62,-0.28] [-3.38,-0.75] [-3.77,-0.98] [-3.01,0.69]
hospital HHI, based 4.49 15.16 12.62
22.72** 1.72 4.17 -6.30 -3.23 -2.10 -6.78
on 15-mi radius [-18.02,27.01] [-2.02,32.33] [-8.83,34.08]
[7.63,37.81] [-1.04,4.48] [-0.47,8.81] [-14.03,1.44] [-11.70,5.24] [-12.15,7.94] [-18.01,4.45]
N 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 23199
Year dummies included; Nearest ED fixed effects included
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STROBE 2007 (v4) checklist of items to be included in reports of observational studies in epidemiology*
Checklist for cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies (combined)
Section/Topic Item # Recommendation Reported on page #
Title and abstract 1 (a) Indicate the study’s design with a commonly used term in the title or the abstract 1, 2
(b) Provide in the abstract an informative and balanced summary of what was done and what was found 2
Introduction
Background/rationale 2 Explain the scientific background and rationale for the investigation being reported 4
Objectives 3 State specific objectives, including any pre-specified hypotheses 5-6
Methods
Study design 4 Present key elements of study design early in the paper 6
Setting 5 Describe the setting, locations, and relevant dates, including periods of recruitment, exposure, follow-up, and data
collection 6-7
Participants 6 (a) Cohort study—Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of selection of participants. Describe
methods of follow-up
Case-control study—Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of case ascertainment and control
selection. Give the rationale for the choice of cases and controls
Cross-sectional study—Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of selection of participants
7
(b) Cohort study—For matched studies, give matching criteria and number of exposed and unexposed
Case-control study—For matched studies, give matching criteria and the number of controls per case N/A
Variables 7 Clearly define all outcomes, exposures, predictors, potential confounders, and effect modifiers. Give diagnostic
criteria, if applicable 7-8
Data sources/ measurement 8* For each variable of interest, give sources of data and details of methods of assessment (measurement). Describe
comparability of assessment methods if there is more than one group 6-8
Bias 9 Describe any efforts to address potential sources of bias 13-14
Study size 10 Explain how the study size was arrived at 7
Quantitative variables 11 Explain how quantitative variables were handled in the analyses. If applicable, describe which groupings were chosen
and why 7-8
Statistical methods 12 (a) Describe all statistical methods, including those used to control for confounding 8-9
(b) Describe any methods used to examine subgroups and interactions 9
(c) Explain how missing data were addressed 9
(d) Cohort study—If applicable, explain how loss to follow-up was addressed
Case-control study—If applicable, explain how matching of cases and controls was addressed N/A
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Cross-sectional study—If applicable, describe analytical methods taking account of sampling strategy
(e) Describe any sensitivity analyses 10, 11
Results
Participants 13* (a) Report numbers of individuals at each stage of study—eg numbers potentially eligible, examined for eligibility,
confirmed eligible, included in the study, completing follow-up, and analysed 10
(b) Give reasons for non-participation at each stage N/A
(c) Consider use of a flow diagram N/A
Descriptive data 14* (a) Give characteristics of study participants (eg demographic, clinical, social) and information on exposures and
potential confounders 10, Table 2
(b) Indicate number of participants with missing data for each variable of interest Table 2
(c) Cohort study—Summarise follow-up time (eg, average and total amount) N/A
Outcome data 15* Cohort study—Report numbers of outcome events or summary measures over time N/A
Case-control study—Report numbers in each exposure category, or summary measures of exposure N/A
Cross-sectional study—Report numbers of outcome events or summary measures 11-12, Table 2
Main results 16 (a) Give unadjusted estimates and, if applicable, confounder-adjusted estimates and their precision (eg, 95%
confidence interval). Make clear which confounders were adjusted for and why they were included 11-12, Tables 2 and 3
(b) Report category boundaries when continuous variables were categorized 10
(c) If relevant, consider translating estimates of relative risk into absolute risk for a meaningful time period N/A
Other analyses 17 Report other analyses done—eg analyses of subgroups and interactions, and sensitivity analyses 11-12
Discussion
Key results 18 Summarise key results with reference to study objectives 12
Limitations 19 Discuss limitations of the study, taking into account sources of potential bias or imprecision. Discuss both direction
and magnitude of any potential bias 13-14
Interpretation 20 Give a cautious overall interpretation of results considering objectives, limitations, multiplicity of analyses, results
from similar studies, and other relevant evidence 12-14
Generalisability 21 Discuss the generalisability (external validity) of the study results 14
Other information
Funding 22 Give the source of funding and the role of the funders for the present study and, if applicable, for the original study on
which the present article is based 16
*Give information separately for cases and controls in case-control studies and, if applicable, for exposed and unexposed groups in cohort and cross-sectional studies.
Note: An Explanation and Elaboration article discusses each checklist item and gives methodological background and published examples of transparent reporting. The STROBE
checklist is best used in conjunction with this article (freely available on the Web sites of PLoS Medicine at http://www.plosmedicine.org/, Annals of Internal Medicine at
http://www.annals.org/, and Epidemiology at http://www.epidem.com/). Information on the STROBE Initiative is available at www.strobe-statement.org.
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Do Patients Hospitalized in High-Minority Hospitals Experience More Diversion and Poorer Outcomes? A
Retrospective Multivariate Analysis of Medicare Patients in California
Journal: BMJ Open
Manuscript ID bmjopen-2015-010263.R2
Article Type: Research
Date Submitted by the Author: 11-Feb-2016
Complete List of Authors: Shen, Yu-Chu; Naval Postgraduate School, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy; National Bureau of Economic Research Hsia, Renee; UCSF, Emergency Medicine
<b>Primary Subject Heading</b>:
Cardiovascular medicine
Secondary Subject Heading: Emergency medicine
Keywords: ambulance diversion, treatment, health outcomes, racial disparities
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Do Patients Hospitalized in High-Minority Hospitals Experience More Diversion and
Poorer Outcomes? A Retrospective Multivariate Analysis of Medicare Patients in
California
Yu-Chu Shen, PhD1, Renee Y. Hsia, MD, MSc
2
1 Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA,
USA; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA, USA
2 Department of Emergency Medicine and Institute of Health Policy Studies, University of
California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
Corresponding author:
Yu-Chu Shen, PhD
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (831) 656-2951
Address: Naval Postgraduate School
555 Dyer Road, Code GB
Monterey, CA 93943
Key Words: ambulance diversion, treatment, health outcomes, racial disparities
Word count: 3,208
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ABSTRACT
Objective: We investigated the association between crowding as measured by ambulance
diversion and differences in access, treatment, and outcomes between black and white patients.
Design: Retrospective analysis.
Setting: We linked daily ambulance diversion logs from 26 California counties between 2001
and 2011 to Medicare patient records with acute myocardial infarction and categorized patients
according to hours in diversion status for their nearest emergency departments on their day of
admission: 0, <6, 6 to <12, and >12 hours. We compared the amount of diversion time between
hospitals serving high volume of black patients and other hospitals. We then use multivariate
models to analyze changes in outcomes when patients faced different levels of diversion, and
compared that change between black and white patients.
Participants: 29,939 Medicare patients from 26 California counties between 2001 and 2011.
Main Outcome Measures: (1) access to hospitals with cardiac technology; (2) treatment
received, and (3) health outcomes (30-day, 90-day, and 1-year death and 30-day readmission).
Results: Hospitals serving high volume of black patients spent more hours in diversion status
compared to other hospitals. Patients faced with the highest level of diversion had the lowest
probability of being admitted to hospitals with cardiac technology compared with those facing no
diversion, by 4.4% for cardiac care intensive unit, and 3.4% for catheterization lab and CABG
facilities. Patients experiencing increased diversion also had a 4.3% decreased likelihood of
receiving catheterization and 9.6% higher 1-year mortality.
Conclusions: Hospitals serving high volume of black patients are more likely to be on
diversion, and diversion is associated with poorer access to cardiac technology, lower probability
of receiving revascularization, and worse long-term mortality outcomes.
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ARTICLE SUMMARY
Strengths and limitations of this study:
• Links unique daily diversion data from hospitals in 17 local emergency medical services
agencies (LEMSAs) in California with patient-level data from Medicare between 2001-
2011.
• Utilizes actual driving distance between a patient’s ZIP code and the nearest hospital’s
longitude and latitude coordinates to identify the closest ED to a patient.
• Analyzes three dimensions of patient care – access, treatment, and outcomes – to explore
potential disparities between black and white patients experiencing ambulance diversion.
• Limitations include: potential reporting bias due to self-reported data by LEMSAs,
diversion status is measured at the hospital level and not for individual patient, lack of
generalizability outside of California, and a small sample of black patients.
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INTRODUCTION
Racial and ethnic differences in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) contribute
significantly to health disparities observed in the United States, and unfortunately have increased
over time.(1, 2) These disparities are particularly noticeable for critical and time-sensitive
diseases such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI),(3) with studies showing that black patients
are less likely than white patients to receive cardiac treatments such as angiography or
thrombolytic therapy after AMI.(4) Many potential explanations for these disparities have been
suggested, including individual patient factors such as a lack of awareness of AMI symptoms,(5)
physician bias,(6) and a distrust of the medical system that results in a hesitance to seek care.(7)
However, it is also important to consider the possibility that system-level mechanisms may be
partially responsible for these disparities,(8, 9) and particularly whether black Americans are less
likely than their white counterparts to receive needed treatment.(10)
One important system-level mechanism that is especially critical for time-sensitive
conditions such as AMI is ambulance diversion. Ambulance diversion occurs when emergency
departments (ED) are temporarily closed to ambulance traffic due to a variety of reasons, such as
overcrowding or lack of available resources, (11-17) and effectively creates a temporary
decrease in ED access. Past studies have found that ambulance diversion is associated with poor
health outcomes for patients suffering from AMI.(18, 19) A recent study further explored the
mechanisms through which ambulance diversions affect patients, and showed that patients whose
nearest hospital experiences significant diversion have poorer access to hospitals with cardiac
technologies, leading to a lower likelihood of receiving treatment with revascularization, and
increased mortality.(20) Few studies, however, have examined if ambulance diversion is
associated with health disparities.
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Conceptually, ambulance diversion is a signal of a hospital operating beyond capacity,
and can affect patients who have to be diverted elsewhere as well as non-diverted patients within
the overcrowded ED. Ambulance diversion has been used as a proxy for ED crowding.(21-23)
In order to better target potential areas for intervention, it is essential to know exactly where the
disparities occur when a patient experiences ambulance diversion. Figure 1 shows that in the
first stage, a hospital experiences resource constraints, mostly due to overcrowding in the ED,
such that it cannot accept incoming ambulance traffic. At this stage, a potential racial disparity
exists if black patients are more likely to be diverted than white patients because the ED closest
to them is more likely to be on diversion.
Some patients might then be routed to hospitals less technologically equipped to handle
complicated cardiac cases. At this stage, disparities could occur if black patients are more likely
to be diverted to less desirable settings than white patients, resulting in worse outcomes.
The decreased access to cardiac technology in turn could decrease the likelihood of
patients receiving needed treatment. In addition, it is also possible that patients who need
advanced cardiac intervention during ambulance diversion periods have a lower likelihood of
receiving treatment even in a hospital equipped with cardiac technology, if crowding and limited
resources outstrip the capability of the staff to deploy their technology appropriately. At this
stage, a potential disparity exists if blacks receive inferior treatments compared to white patients,
leading to worse patient outcomes, when both are exposed to the same level of ambulance
diversion.(17)
Our study therefore explored potential differences between black and white patients at
different stages of ambulance diversion, using 100% of Medicare claims and daily ambulance
diversion logs from 26 California counties between 2001 and 2011. We first compared amount
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of ambulance diversion between hospitals serving large share of black patients (henceforth
“minority-serving hospitals”) and others. We then examined whether racial disparities in
ambulance diversion, if any, resulted in differential health outcomes between black and white
patients.
METHODS
Data
We obtained patient data from 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review
(MedPAR), linked with vital files, between 2001 and 2011. We linked them with the Healthcare
Provider Cost Reporting Information System and American Hospital Association annual surveys
to obtain additional hospital-level information.
To identify each hospital’s daily ambulance diversion hours, we acquired daily
ambulance diversion logs provided by the California local emergency medical services agencies
(LEMSAs). California has a total 33 LEMSAs, but 10 of them banned diversion for the years of
2001-2011. We excluded counties with diversion bans from our analysis, since they did not
contribute to our understanding of the relationship between diversion and patient outcomes.
Those excluded counties tended to be much smaller than counties without diversion bans, but
they had comparable shares of black patients (4.6% among counties with the diversion ban vs.
5.4% without the diversion ban; p=0.80). Figure 2 identifies counties with the diversion ban over
this period and ZIP code communities that had high shares of black population (i.e., those
communities that were in the top tertile of black population distribution in California).
We obtained data for 17 out of the 23 LEMSAs that did not ban diversion (actual
coverage dates vary by LEMSA). The 17 LEMSAs together represented 88% of the California
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population. To identify the closest ED for a patient, we supplemented our hospital data with
longitude and latitude coordinates of the hospital’s physical address or heliport (if one
existed).(24) We obtained actual driving distance from the patient’s ZIP code centroid to nearest
hospital’s latitude and longitude coordinates based on Google Maps, using automation codes
developed in Stata.(25)
Patient Population
We identified the AMI population by extracting from 100% MedPAR records that had
410.x0 or 410.x1 as the principal diagnoses as done in previous studies,(18) were hospitalized
between 2001 and 2011, and resided in counties for which we had diversion data. We excluded
all patients who were not admitted through the ED, and patients whose admitting hospital was >
100 miles away from their mailing ZIP codes. For analysis of 30-day readmission, we excluded
patients who could not be readmitted to the hospital (for example, if the patient died during the
index admission) per CMS guidelines.(26)
Defining Minority Serving Hospitals
In the first part of our analysis, we performed a trend analysis of ambulance diversion
hours between hospitals serving large share of black patients and other hospitals. We
characterized hospitals’ share of black patients in 2 ways, using metrics from prior work. First,
we ranked each hospital by the proportion of total Medicare patient volume that is black at
baseline (2001),(27) and defined minority-serving hospitals as those who ranked in the top 10%.
Second, we also designated hospitals as a minority-serving if they provided care to more than
double the number of black patients compared with competing hospitals within a 15-mile radius
of the facility in 2001.(18) This approach accounted for the distribution of the local population.
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Defining Access, Treatment, and Health Outcomes
We evaluated three dimensions of patient care. We defined access as whether a patient
was admitted to a hospital with the following cardiac technology: cardiac care intensive unit,
catheterization lab, and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery capacity.
We defined treatment received as whether a patient received a given procedure, identified
by the ICD-9 procedure codes on the MedPAR. We examined 3 common treatments for AMI:
percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), thrombolytic therapy, or CABG.
Finally, we analyzed 2 sets of patient health outcomes: death (whether a patient died
within X days from his ED admission, where X=30, 90, and 365 days) and readmission to the
hospital within 30 days of the index discharge.
Statistical models
We first explored whether racial disparities exist in the absolute amount – e.g., number of
hours - of ambulance diversion. Because diversion is measured at the hospital level, we
compared daily diversion trends between minority serving and non-minority serving hospitals
using the mean daily ambulance diversion hours. We used the nonparamaetric Kolmogorov-
Smirnov tests to test whether the two groups’ diversion trend distributions were the same.(28)
We then implemented a multivariate model to examine the patient outcomes (in terms of
access, treatment received, and health). For all outcomes, we implemented a linear probability
model with fixed effects for each ED that was identified as the closest ED for each patient while
controlling for time-dependent variables. The ED fixed effects eliminated any underlying
differences across EDs and the communities they serve. Baseline differences might include but
not limited to possible differences in baseline diversion rate, baseline mortality rates, quality of
care, case-mix of the patient population, or other unobserved characteristics that might be
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confounded with the outcomes.
For the key variables of interest, we created 3 dichotomous variables based on the
diversion level of the patient’s nearest ED, using previously defined categories of diversion: no
diversion (reference group); <6 hours; 6-12 hours; and ≥12 hours.(18, 20) To also investigate
possible differential outcomes as the result of diversion between black and white patients, we
added the interaction term between indicator for black patients and the three diversion categories.
We controlled for race (black, Hispanic, Asian, other minority, unknown/missing race),
age, gender, as well as 22 comorbid measures based on prior work.(29) For admitting hospital
organizational characteristics, we controlled for hospital ownership, teaching status, size
(measured by log transformed total inpatient discharges), occupancy rate, system membership,
and Herfindahl index to capture the competitiveness of the hospital market within 15-mile radius
(0 being perfectly competitive and 1 being monopoly). Last, we included year indicators to
capture the macro trends.
For treatment outcomes, we estimated an additional model that controlled for cardiac
technology access. Results from these two models allowed us to compare whether differences in
treatment received, if any, are the result of lack of technology access. For mortality outcomes,
we estimated a third model accounting for both cardiac technology and actual treatment received.
All models were estimated using Stata 13.(30) This study was exempted from the Committee on
Human Research at the University of California, San Francisco.
RESULTS
Figure 3 shows the trend in mean daily diversion hours among hospitals reporting any
diversion hours between non-minority-serving and minority-serving hospitals. Mean daily
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diversion hours were higher in minority-serving hospitals than in non-minority-serving hospitals,
with an average difference 2 hours per day between the 2 groups (p<0.001 by nonparametric
Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests). We also examined the percent of patients who experienced
diversion over time if their closest ED was minority-serving compared with other hospitals, and
observed the same pattern. Table 1 shows that the minority-serving and other hospitals are
similar in most dimensions (bed size, cardiac care capacity, occupancy rate, teaching status),
except that a higher share of minority serving hospitals are government-run (22% vs. 12%,
p<0.01) and are located in more concentrated markets as measured by the Herfindahl index (0.20
vs. 0.15, p<0.01).
Our sample included 29,939 patients for all outcomes, except for the readmission analysis
where the sample size was 22,058 patients. Among all patients, 15,202 patients (51%)
experienced no diversion at their nearest ED on their day of admission; for 25%, their nearest ED
was on diversion for <6 hours; for 15%, their nearest ED was on diversion for 6-12 hours; and
for 10% their nearest ED was on diversion for >12 hours of diversion (Table 2). In addition, a
larger percentage of black patients experienced >12 hours of diversion than white patients (12%
vs. 9%, p<0.01). In general, blacks had a lower probability of being admitted to hospitals with
cardiac care technology, and a lower probability of receiving catheterization. The raw mortality
outcomes were similar between blacks and whites, but blacks had a higher probability of being
readmitted to hospitals within 30 days of discharge (40 vs. 34%, p<0.01).
Table 2 also reveals underlying demographic and comorbid differences between black
and white patients. Compared to whites, blacks who suffered from acute myocardial infarction
were more likely to be female, younger, and comorbid with either diabetes, renal failure, or
hypertension.
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While informative, the raw rates in Table 2 do not take into account potential differences
across individuals, hospitals and communities. Table 3 shows estimated results from Model 1
(complete results in Supplementary Table 1). After controlling for multiple factors, patients
exposed to the highest level of diversion (>12 hours) had worse access to cardiac technology—
by -2.61 percentage points for access to cardiac care intensive unit (95% CI: -4.81, -0.40)
compared with patients who were admitted on a day with no diversion; by -2.44 percentage
points for access to catheterization lab (95% CI: -4.24, -0.65), and by -2.25 percentage points for
access to CABG facilities (95% CI: -4.02, -0.48). This is equivalent to a 4.4% reduction in
cardiac care unit (CCU) access (the base rate for CCU is 60%), and 3.4% reduction in access to
catheterization lab and CABG facilities. In addition, patients exposed to the highest level of
diversion were less likely to receive catheterization, by -2.19 percentage points (95% CI: -4.19,
-0.19), and had a higher 1-year mortality rate, by 2.78 percentage points (95% CI: 0.76, 4.80). In
other words, patients in the highest diversion category had a decreased likelihood of receiving
catheterization by 4.3% (base rate is 51%) and higher 1-year mortality by 9.6% (base rate is
29%).
Results from the interaction terms between black patients and diversion status showed
that in general, black and white patients had a similar experience when facing the same level of
diversion. The interaction terms in general were not statistically significant at the conventional
level, with two exceptions. Blacks in the highest diversion category were less likely to receive
thrombolytic therapy relative to whites facing the same amount of diversion, and blacks in the
low diversion category (<6 hours) had a higher 1-year mortality relative to whites.
Table 4 shows results from the additional model where we controlled for cardiac
technology access (for both treatment and health outcomes) and treatment received (for health
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outcomes only). The notable difference, compared to Table 3, is that once we controlled for
technology access, the probability of receiving PCI was comparable across the diversion levels.
We still observed higher 1-year mortality rates among patients in the highest diversion category,
albeit with a slightly smaller magnitude. The interaction results were similar to those in Table 3.
DISCUSSION
Our study provides a unique perspective into the mechanisms behind ambulance
diversion and health disparities. We hypothesized that ambulance diversion might affect black
and white patients differently through three potential mechanisms: differential amount of
exposure to diversion, differential access to cardiac technology, and differential treatment
received when both experience diversion. While these possibilities are not mutually exclusive
and could happen concurrently, our results mainly support the hypothesis of differential exposure
to ambulance diversion – in other words, blacks with AMI have higher exposure to ambulance
diversion because a larger share of black patients go to minority-serving hospitals, and longer
exposure to ambulance diversion is associated with higher long-term mortality. This is in
contrast to explanations where blacks receive differentially less access to technology or treatment
compared with whites when both experience the same diversion condition.
Our findings that minority-serving hospitals are more likely to experience ambulance
diversion than non-minority serving hospitals is concerning. Despite the overall decrease in
ambulance diversion over time, it appears that this decrease has not helped improve the
disparities in diversion. The disparate amount of diversion experienced by minority-serving
hospitals is concordant with previous literature, suggesting that there may be a fundamental
misalignment in the supply and demand of emergency services at minority-serving hospitals
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relative to non minority-serving hospitals.(31-33)
Our findings add support to evidence (18) that policies to reduce ambulance diversion can
improve access, treatment, and outcomes for patients. However, in order to narrow the gap in
disparities between black and white patients, more effort should be made to reduce the amount of
ambulance diversion at minority-serving hospitals. These interventions to target excessive
ambulance diversion in at minority-serving hospitals could also be in keeping with national goals
to decrease disparities at the system level. For example, the Department of Health and Human
Services has stated that one of their strategies to reduce disparities in the quality of care specific
to cardiovascular diseases is to implement policy and health system changes that include
reimbursement incentives.(34) In addition to devoting resources on individually-oriented
initiatives geared at educating physicians about biases in offering cardiac catheterization, then,
our findings suggest that thoughtful reflection about approaches to achieve equitable resource
allocation could be another effective mechanism in the long-term towards decreasing racial
disparities in healthcare.
Our results should be interpreted in light of several limitations. First, our diversion data is
self-reported by LEMSAs, with potential for errors and reporting bias. Second, our diversion
status is identified at the hospital level and not at the individual patient level, and our patient data
identify date but not time of admission. While we cannot verify with absolute certainty that a
patient was diverted, it is reasonable to assume longer hours of diversion is associated with a
lower probability that a patient is admitted to this ED. In addition, the inability to clearly
identify the diverted and the non-diverted patients in our analysis implies that what we observe is
the net effect of ambulance diversion.
Third, our dataset contains the mailing ZIP codes for the patients, which may or may not
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be the same as their ZIP code of residence. There is also a possibility that the patient’s AMI did
not occur at home. With the exclusion criteria we imposed in selecting our sample, we believe
that this limitation should not affect our analyses.
We are aware that using driving distance to determine a patient’s geographical access to
EDs means that our study ignores the availability of the aeromedical transport network. We
believe that this omission does not affect our findings as aeromedical transportation is almost
always limited to inter-hospital (or trauma scene-to-hospital) transport, and is rarely, if ever, an
option for AMI patients in the field, even in remote rural areas.
Fourth, our study design necessitates that we exclude counties with a diversion ban.
However, if diversion bans disproportionally favor communities with predominantly white
population, then we did not capture this important source of discrimination. Based on our
comparison, however, the two types of communities had similar shares of black patient
population, so it does not appear to be the case that diversion bans only occurred among mostly
white communities.
Lastly, our dataset is limited to California, which, while a large and diverse state
representing 12% of the U.S. population, is not representative of the nation as a whole. Because
our patient sample is based on the Medicare population, our findings may not be applicable to
non-elderly population. Last, we have a relatively small sample of black patients. Future studies
that incorporate non-Medicare populations could also increase the sample size for black patients,
and improve the statistical power of the analysis.
CONCLUSIONS
Our study showed that hospitals treating high volume of black patients experienced a
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significantly greater amount of ambulance diversion than non minority-serving hospitals. In
addition, patients whose nearest hospital experienced significant diversion had poorer access to
hospitals with cardiac technologies, leading to a lower likelihood of receiving treatment with
revascularization and lower 1-year survival. We did not find that other downstream
consequences of ambulance diversion, such as decreased access to technology and treatment,
were differentially worse for black patients. Because diversion is asymmetrically experienced by
hospitals that treat high volume of black patients, targeted efforts to decreased ED crowding and
ambulance diversion in these communities may be able to reduce disparities in quality of care
and, ultimately, outcomes.
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CONTRIBUTORSHIP
Dr. Shen had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of
the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
Study concept and design: Shen, Hsia.
Acquisition of data: Shen, Hsia.
Analysis and interpretation of data: Shen, Hsia.
Drafting of the manuscript: Hsia.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Shen.
Statistical analysis: Shen.
Obtained funding: Shen, Hsia.
Administrative, technical, or material support: Shen, Hsia.
Study supervision: Shen.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We especially thank Harlan Krumholz (Yale University, New Haven CT) for providing
constructive suggestions on the manuscript; Jean Roth (National Bureau of Economic Research,
Cambridge MA) for assisting with obtaining and extracting the patient data; Nandita Sarkar
(NBER) for excellent programming support; Julia Brownell and Sarah Sabbagh (UCSF, San
Francisco CA) for technical assistance. None received additional compensation other than
University salary for their contributions.
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COMPETING INTEREST
We have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and declare that we have no
competing interests.
FUNDING
This work was supported by the NIH/NHLBI (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute) Grant
Number 1R01HL114822 (Shen/Hsia). Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and
do not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH.
DATA SHARING
No additional data available.
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9. Williams DR, Jackson PB. Social sources of racial disparities in health. Health Aff
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19. Yankovic N, Glied S, Green LV, et al. The impact of ambulance diversion on heart attack
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FIGURE LEGEND
Figure 1. Conceptualizing Stages of Ambulance Diversion and Potential Racial Disparity
Figure 2. California Map Showing Counties with Diversion Ban and Communities with High
Shares of Black Patients
Figure 3. Monthly Trend in Ambulance Diversion between Minority-Serving and Non-Minority
Serving Hospitals: 2001-2011
TABLE LEGEND
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Hospital Characteristics
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics
Table 3. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment,
and Outcomes, Based on Model 1
Table 4. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment,
and Outcomes, Based on Alternative Models
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Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Hospital Characteristics
Mean (SD) All Hospitals
Non-minority serving Hospitals
Minority-serving Hospitals
Minority-serving hospitals 24%
(43%)
Due to definition 1: in the top decile for proportion of all back patients in California 17%
(38%)
Due to definition 2: treat twice as many black patients than other hospitals in their geographic proximity 7%
(25%)
Cardiac care capacity
Has cath lab 60% 60% 59%
(49%) (49%) (49%)
Has cardiac care unit 57% 58% 54%
(50%) (49%) (50%)
Has CABG capacity 48% 49% 48%
(50%) (50%) (50%)
For-profit hospitals 26% 26% 28%
(44%) (44%) (45%)
Government hospitals 14% 12% 22% **
(35%) (32%) (41%)
Teaching hospitals 9% 9% 9%
(29%) (29%) (29%)
Member of a system 68% 69% 64%
(47%) (46%) (48%)
Mean total beds in hospital 232.89 231.39 237.58
(130.69) (130.14) (132.47)
Mean occupancy rate 0.64 0.64 0.65
(0.16) (0.16) (0.15)
Mean HHI index1 0.16 0.15 0.20
**
(0.18) (0.16) (0.22)
Number of hospital years 1563 1186 377
Note: non-minority serving and minority-serving hospital differences statistically significant at *p<0.05, **p<0.01 1The HHI index captures competitiveness of the hospitals' market (defined as within 15-mile radius): the scale goes from 0 to 1 where 0 represents perfectly competitive market and 1 represents monopoly.
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Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics
Whole Sample White Black
N (%) N (%) N (%)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission
no diversion 15202 (51%) 11439 (53%) 798 (50%) **
<6 hours 7514 (25%) 5169 (24%) 374 (23%)
[6-12) hours 4472 (15%) 3006 (14%) 263 (16%) *
>=12 hours 3069 (10%) 1998 (9%) 194 (12%) **
Access
admitted to hospital with cardiac care unit 19846 (66%) 14265 (67%) 1066 (66%)
admitted to hospital with cath lab 22257 (74%) 16101 (75%) 1180 (73%) **
admitted to hospital with CABG capacity 20042 (67%) 14761 (69%) 1016 (63%) **
Treatment received
received catheterization 14181 (47%) 10532 (49%) 649 (40%) **
received thrombolytic therapy 450 (2%) 305 (1%) 16 (1%)
received CABG 1695 (6%) 1216 (6%) 69 (4%) *
Health Outcomes
30-day mortality 4835 (16%) 3507 (16%) 234 (15%) *
90-day mortality 6593 (22%) 4759 (22%) 355 (22%)
1-year mortality 9447 (32%) 6824 (32%) 516 (32%)
30-day all cause readmission 7974 (34%) 5638 (34%) 507 (40%) **
Patient demographics
White 21414 (72%)
Black 1612 (5%)
Hispanic 1578 (5%)
Asian 2126 (7%)
Other non-white races 1391 (5%)
Unknown/missing race 1818 (6%)
Female 14906 (50%) 10612 (50%) 913 (57%) **
Age distribution
65–69 4231 (14%) 2920 (14%) 335 (21%) **
70–74 4756 (16%) 3292 (15%) 305 (19%) **
75–79 5531 (18%) 3764 (18%) 330 (20%) **
80–84 6197 (21%) 4455 (21%) 271 (17%) **
85+ 9224 (31%) 6983 (33%) 371 (23%) **
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Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Patient Characteristics (Continued)
Whole Sample White Black
N (%) N (%) N (%)
Patient comorbid conditions
Peripheral vascular disease 2195 (7%) 1623 (8%) 127 (8%)
Pulmonary Circulation disorders 683 (2%) 494 (2%) 48 (3%)
Diabetes (uncomp+complicated) 8028 (27%) 5127 (24%) 530 (33%) **
Renal failure 3965 (13%) 2669 (12%) 301 (19%) **
Liver disease 241 (1%) 155 (1%) 18 (1%)
Cancer 1127 (4%) 837 (4%) 79 (5%) *
Dementia 1171 (4%) 865 (4%) 67 (4%)
Valvular disease 4070 (14%) 3085 (14%) 184 (11%) **
Hypertension (uncomp+complicated) 18196 (61%) 12667 (59%) 1127 (70%) **
Chronic pulmonary disease 5965 (20%) 4340 (20%) 369 (23%) *
Rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascular 489 (2%) 383 (2%) 29 (2%)
Coagulation deficiency 988 (3%) 690 (3%) 49 (3%)
Obesity 1062 (4%) 796 (4%) 80 (5%) *
Substance abuse 461 (2%) 343 (2%) 44 (3%) **
Depression 790 (3%) 625 (3%) 34 (2%) *
Psychosis 405 (1%) 298 (1%) 30 (2%)
Hypothyroidism 2462 (8%) 2004 (9%) 58 (4%) **
Paralysis and other neurological disorder 2565 (9%) 1806 (8%) 178 (11%) **
Chronic Peptic ulcer disease 19 (0%) 12 (0%) 1 (0%)
Weight loss 623 (2%) 416 (2%) 51 (3%) **
Fluid and electrolyte disorders 6187 (21%) 4267 (20%) 392 (24%) **
Anemia (blood loss and deficiency) 4034 (13%) 2735 (13%) 270 (17%) **
Patient 29939 21414 1612
Note: black and white differences statistically significant at *p<0.05, **p<0.01
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Table 3. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment, and Outcomes, Based on Model 1
Access (admitting hospital has:) Treatment Outcomes
cardiac care unit cath lab CABG cath/PCI
thrombolytic therapy CABG
30-day mortality
90-day mortality
1-year mortality
30-day readmission
Base rate (among patients in reference group) (60%) (73%) (65%) (51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%)
Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission)
Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission:
<6 hours -1.40* -1.70** -0.94 -0.86 0.18 -0.42 -0.24 0.11 -0.20 -0.02
[-2.74,-0.05] [-2.91,-0.49] [-2.11,0.23] [-2.23,0.51] [-0.23,0.59] [-1.17,0.34] [-1.31,0.83] [-1.15,1.36] [-1.66,1.25] [-1.86,1.82]
[6-12) hours -0.40 -0.79 -0.25 -1.27 -0.27 -0.50 0.29 0.40 0.21 0.57
[-2.03,1.22] [-2.41,0.82] [-1.83,1.33] [-2.91,0.37] [-0.72,0.18] [-1.42,0.42] [-1.04,1.62] [-1.08,1.89] [-1.43,1.86] [-1.48,2.62]
>=12 hours -2.61* -2.44** -2.25* -2.19* -0.14 -0.29 1.10 1.78* 2.78** 2.12
[-4.81,-0.40] [-4.24,-0.65] [-4.02,-0.48] [-4.19,-0.19] [-0.72,0.43] [-1.29,0.71] [-0.60,2.81] [0.01,3.55] [0.76,4.80] [-0.55,4.79]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion -0.76 2.51 3.79 -2.16 -1.11 0.12 0.20 2.71 5.56* 2.35
(<6 hours) [-5.62,4.10] [-2.15,7.17] [-1.18,8.77] [-7.85,3.52] [-2.51,0.29] [-2.48,2.72] [-4.16,4.56] [-1.71,7.12] [0.25,10.86] [-4.13,8.83]
X medium diversion -0.12 1.08 3.05 -0.08 -0.93 2.77 3.43 4.94 2.55 0.60
[6-12) hours [-5.73,5.49] [-4.81,6.98] [-2.89,9.00] [-7.13,6.97] [-2.25,0.39] [-0.40,5.94] [-2.28,9.14] [-0.65,10.53] [-3.16,8.26] [-7.81,9.02]
X high diversion 3.37 -2.38 1.41 0.30 -2.70** -0.87 2.58 2.49 1.61 -0.28
(>= 12 hours) [-2.88,9.63] [-8.82,4.05] [-4.54,7.36] [-6.24,6.84] [-4.20,-1.19] [-4.32,2.58] [-3.33,8.50] [-4.29,9.27] [-5.83,9.05] [-11.01,10.45]
Control for tech access N/A N/A N/A No No No No No No No
Control for treatment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A No No No No
N 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 23199
Nearest ED Based on Google query of driving distance *p<0.05, **p<0.01
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Table 4. Association Between Ambulance Diversion of the Nearest ED And Access, Treatment, and Outcomes, Based on Alternative Models
Treatment Outcomes
cath/PCI thrombolytic
therapy CABG 30-day
mortality 90-day
mortality 1-year
mortality 30-day
readmission
Base rate (among patients in reference group) (51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%) Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission) Nearest ED's exposure to diversion on the day of admission:
<6 hours -0.51 0.16 -0.37 -0.25 0.09 -0.24 0.00
[-1.85,0.84] [-0.24,0.57] [-1.13,0.38] [-1.31,0.82] [-1.16,1.35] [-1.68,1.21] [-1.84,1.84]
[6-12) hours -1.15 -0.27 -0.49 0.30 0.40 0.21 0.60
[-2.77,0.47] [-0.72,0.18] [-1.41,0.43] [-1.03,1.62] [-1.08,1.89] [-1.43,1.85] [-1.46,2.65]
>=12 hours -1.46 -0.18 -0.17 1.07 1.74 2.70** 2.07
[-3.40,0.48] [-0.75,0.40] [-1.16,0.83] [-0.63,2.76] [-0.02,3.50] [0.69,4.71] [-0.61,4.74]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion (<6 hours) -3.42 -1.03 -0.10 0.29 2.79 5.73* 2.53
[-9.05,2.20] [-2.44,0.38] [-2.73,2.53] [-4.08,4.65] [-1.63,7.22] [0.41,11.05] [-3.96,9.03] X medium diversion [6-12) hours -1.00 -0.87 2.58 3.52 5.01 2.69 0.63
[-7.65,5.64] [-2.18,0.45] [-0.56,5.72] [-2.21,9.24] [-0.59,10.62] [-3.04,8.41] [-7.85,9.12]
X high diversion (>=12 hours) 0.22 -2.67** -1.01 2.67 2.54 1.66 -0.44
[-5.89,6.33] [-4.19,-1.16] [-4.42,2.40] [-3.26,8.60] [-4.22,9.31] [-5.79,9.11] [-11.13,10.26]
Control for tech access Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Control for treatment N/A N/A N/A Yes Yes Yes Yes
N 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 23199
Nearest ED Based on Google query of driving distance *p<0.05, **p<0.01
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Figure 1. Conceptualizing Stages of Ambulance Diversion and Potential Racial Disparity 108x81mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Figure 2. California Map Showing Counties with Diversion Ban and Communities with High Shares of Black Patients
143x186mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Figure 3. Monthly Trend in Ambulance Diversion between Minority-Serving and Non-Minority Serving
Hospitals: 2001-2011
108x78mm (300 x 300 DPI)
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Supplementary Table 1. Full Regression Results Based on Model 1
Access (admitting hospital has:)
Treatment Outcomes
cardiac care unit cath lab CABG unit
cath/PCI
thrombolytic
therapy CABG
30-day
mortality
90-day
mortality 1-year mortality
30-day
readmission
Base rate (among
patients in
reference group) (60%) (73%) (65%)
(51%) (1%) (6%) (16%) (22%) (29%) (34%)
Diversion status (Reference group: nearest ED not on diversion on the day of admission)
<6 hours -1.40* -1.70** -0.94
-0.86 0.18 -0.42 -0.24 0.11 -0.20 -0.02
[-2.74,-0.05] [-2.91,-0.49] [-2.11,0.23]
[-2.23,0.51] [-0.23,0.59] [-1.17,0.34] [-1.31,0.83] [-1.15,1.36] [-1.66,1.25] [-1.86,1.82]
[6-12) hours -0.40 -0.79 -0.25
-1.27 -0.27 -0.50 0.29 0.40 0.21 0.57
[-2.03,1.22] [-2.41,0.82] [-1.83,1.33]
[-2.91,0.37] [-0.72,0.18] [-1.42,0.42] [-1.04,1.62] [-1.08,1.89] [-1.43,1.86] [-1.48,2.62]
>=12 hours -2.61* -2.44** -2.25*
-2.19* -0.14 -0.29 1.10 1.78* 2.78** 2.12
[-4.81,-0.40] [-4.24,-0.65] [-4.02,-0.48] [-4.19,-0.19] [-0.72,0.43] [-1.29,0.71] [-0.60,2.81] [0.01,3.55] [0.76,4.80] [-0.55,4.79]
Interaction between black patients and diversion level:
X low diversion
-0.76 2.51 3.79
-2.16 -1.11 0.12 0.20 2.71 5.56* 2.35
(<6 hours) [-5.62,4.10] [-2.15,7.17] [-1.18,8.77]
[-7.85,3.52] [-2.51,0.29] [-2.48,2.72] [-4.16,4.56] [-1.71,7.12] [0.25,10.86] [-4.13,8.83]
X medium diversion -0.12 1.08 3.05
-0.08 -0.93 2.77 3.43 4.94 2.55 0.60
[6-12) hours [-5.73,5.49] [-4.81,6.98] [-2.89,9.00]
[-7.13,6.97] [-2.25,0.39] [-0.40,5.94] [-2.28,9.14] [-0.65,10.53] [-3.16,8.26] [-7.81,9.02]
X high diversion 3.37 -2.38 1.41
0.30 -2.70** -0.87 2.58 2.49 1.61 -0.28
(>=12 hours) [-2.88,9.63] [-8.82,4.05] [-4.54,7.36]
[-6.24,6.84] [-4.20,-1.19] [-4.32,2.58] [-3.33,8.50] [-4.29,9.27] [-5.83,9.05]
[-
11.01,10.45]
Patient demographics
Female -0.26 -0.35 -0.76*
-5.26** -0.15 -2.67** -0.19 0.26 -0.03 3.29**
[-1.10,0.59] [-1.11,0.41] [-1.48,-0.04]
[-6.29,-4.22] [-0.44,0.13] [-3.22,-2.12] [-1.04,0.65] [-0.67,1.19] [-1.06,1.00] [2.08,4.51]
Black -1.65 -2.39 -1.95
-5.78** 0.16 -1.77* -2.78* -2.10 -2.53 4.17
[-4.71,1.41] [-5.29,0.51] [-4.97,1.06]
[-9.44,-2.12] [-0.69,1.01] [-3.28,-0.26] [-5.03,-0.52] [-4.51,0.31] [-5.24,0.17] [-0.02,8.36]
hispanic -2.70* -1.44 -2.46*
0.34 -0.17 -0.05 -2.42* -1.55 -3.36** 2.00
[-4.87,-0.52] [-3.15,0.27] [-4.36,-0.56]
[-2.13,2.81] [-0.93,0.59] [-1.18,1.08] [-4.37,-0.48] [-3.86,0.77] [-5.69,-1.02] [-1.26,5.26]
asian -0.78 0.25 -0.17
1.29 -0.25 0.41 -1.33 -2.05 -3.44** -0.72
[-2.70,1.14] [-1.54,2.03] [-2.08,1.74]
[-0.84,3.41] [-0.81,0.30] [-0.67,1.49] [-3.30,0.63] [-4.31,0.20] [-5.63,-1.24] [-3.64,2.20]
other minority race -1.27 -2.38* -2.32*
-1.60 0.09 0.96 -0.85 -1.83 -2.77* -3.05*
[-3.54,1.01] [-4.23,-0.52] [-4.15,-0.48]
[-3.95,0.74] [-0.69,0.86] [-0.38,2.30] [-2.70,1.00] [-3.91,0.26] [-4.97,-0.57] [-5.97,-0.13]
unknown/missing -0.62 0.61 -2.00
-1.95 0.60 -5.56** 2.68 -1.22 -3.92 -6.53
race [-6.11,4.87] [-3.45,4.66] [-6.38,2.39]
[-8.58,4.67] [-0.47,1.68] [-9.61,-1.51] [-2.68,8.05] [-7.14,4.70] [-10.33,2.48] [-14.19,1.13]
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cardiac care unit cath lab CABG unit cath/PCI
thrombolytic
therapy CABG
30-day
mortality
90-day
mortality 1-year mortality
30-day
readmission
age 70-74 0.16 0.44 0.58
-2.76** -0.82* -1.32* 1.18 2.01** 3.44** 2.53*
[-1.37,1.69] [-0.90,1.78] [-0.96,2.12]
[-4.41,-1.11] [-1.46,-0.18] [-2.48,-0.17] [-0.02,2.37] [0.70,3.33] [1.97,4.92] [0.38,4.69]
age 75-79 -0.05 0.37 0.36
-6.20** -0.59 -0.94 3.02** 4.58** 7.28** 7.31**
[-1.49,1.39] [-0.92,1.66] [-1.07,1.79]
[-7.86,-4.53] [-1.23,0.05] [-2.16,0.29] [1.81,4.23] [3.21,5.95] [5.68,8.88] [5.25,9.37]
age 80-84 -0.14 0.17 -0.60
-13.87** -0.93** -3.45** 7.57** 11.30** 15.11** 11.30**
[-1.61,1.32] [-1.01,1.34] [-1.88,0.69]
[-15.64,-12.10] [-1.55,-0.31] [-4.61,-2.30] [6.21,8.94] [9.80,12.79] [13.40,16.81] [9.09,13.51]
age 85+ -0.99 -0.90 -0.67
-33.74** -1.38** -6.98** 14.94** 20.62** 28.96** 14.37**
[-2.44,0.46] [-2.14,0.34] [-2.04,0.69]
[-35.75,-31.73] [-1.97,-0.78] [-8.06,-5.91] [13.70,16.18] [19.24,22.00] [27.45,30.47] [12.28,16.46]
Patient comorbid conditions
Peripheral vascular 1.67* 0.70 1.62*
2.44* -0.53* 0.98 -0.32 0.96 1.55 1.70
disease [0.16,3.17] [-0.60,1.99] [0.28,2.97]
[0.50,4.39] [-0.98,-0.09] [-0.05,2.01] [-1.87,1.22] [-0.85,2.77] [-0.44,3.53] [-0.73,4.13]
Pulmonary -0.52 -0.76 -0.34
-6.98** 0.08 -0.63 1.31 3.50 6.96** 1.88
Circulation disorders [-3.17,2.14] [-3.09,1.58] [-2.68,1.99]
[-10.63,-3.33] [-0.80,0.96] [-2.39,1.12] [-1.77,4.40] [-0.02,7.03] [3.32,10.61] [-2.21,5.98]
Diabetes -0.45 -0.06 -0.77
-4.78** -0.29 -0.33 -2.00** -1.76** 0.49 1.69*
[-1.38,0.49] [-0.95,0.83] [-1.72,0.18]
[-5.94,-3.63] [-0.61,0.03] [-0.88,0.22] [-2.89,-1.11] [-2.73,-0.79] [-0.65,1.64] [0.36,3.02]
Renal failure -2.01** -0.42 -0.71
-12.42** -0.58** -0.71 6.31** 9.63** 13.86** 5.12**
[-3.30,-0.72] [-1.43,0.59] [-1.87,0.45]
[-14.06,-10.79] [-0.91,-0.26] [-1.47,0.04] [4.86,7.75] [8.06,11.20] [12.18,15.54] [3.22,7.02]
Cancer -0.01 0.26 -0.97
-17.20** -0.60* -3.61** 14.15** 20.47** 29.90** 4.43*
[-2.00,1.99] [-1.49,2.00] [-2.90,0.96]
[-19.94,-14.47] [-1.20,-0.00] [-4.77,-2.44] [11.49,16.82] [17.75,23.20] [27.20,32.59] [0.95,7.90]
Dementia -2.71* 0.19 -0.73
-12.91** 0.06 -0.60 3.15* 4.37** 7.97** 3.10
[-5.26,-0.15] [-1.99,2.38] [-2.83,1.37]
[-15.49,-10.33] [-0.61,0.72] [-1.49,0.29] [0.23,6.07] [1.22,7.53] [4.74,11.20] [-0.67,6.87]
Valvular disease 1.66** 0.83 1.59**
-1.65* -0.45* 3.06** -0.40 1.16 4.05** 1.41
[0.48,2.84] [-0.15,1.82] [0.47,2.71]
[-3.22,-0.07] [-0.81,-0.09] [2.16,3.96] [-1.63,0.83] [-0.18,2.49] [2.53,5.57] [-0.41,3.23]
Hypertension -1.29** 0.27 -0.20
4.35** -0.22 -0.92** -8.69** -10.92** -12.25** -5.83**
[-2.17,-0.41] [-0.45,0.99] [-0.99,0.59]
[3.29,5.42] [-0.51,0.06] [-1.49,-0.35] [-9.59,-7.79] [-11.89,-9.96] [-13.29,-11.20] [-7.15,-4.52]
Chronic pulmonary 0.15 -0.34 -0.70
-6.25** -0.29 -0.37 0.03 2.36** 5.90** 4.84**
disease [-1.02,1.32] [-1.34,0.65] [-1.75,0.35]
[-7.55,-4.94] [-0.64,0.06] [-1.00,0.25] [-0.99,1.05] [1.25,3.47] [4.66,7.14] [3.26,6.42]
Rheumatoid arthritis 0.67 -0.40 -2.00
-2.94 -0.23 -1.66 -2.88 -3.42* -2.81 -3.37
[-2.20,3.54] [-2.90,2.09] [-4.51,0.51]
[-6.57,0.69] [-1.21,0.75] [-3.38,0.06] [-5.82,0.05] [-6.74,-0.09] [-6.74,1.12] [-7.84,1.10]
Coagulation -1.42 0.98 0.67
-0.56 -0.55 10.67** 6.95** 9.97** 9.84** 5.90**
deficiency [-3.71,0.87] [-0.90,2.86] [-1.27,2.61]
[-3.38,2.26] [-1.16,0.06] [8.45,12.89] [4.26,9.64] [7.17,12.78] [6.81,12.87] [2.40,9.40]
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cardiac care unit cath lab CABG unit cath/PCI
thrombolytic
therapy CABG
30-day
mortality
90-day
mortality 1-year mortality
30-day
readmission
Obesity 0.14 -3.18** -2.10
2.10 -0.37 -0.31 -3.29** -4.48** -7.90** -3.06*
[-2.27,2.54] [-5.19,-1.18] [-4.32,0.13]
[-0.68,4.89] [-1.12,0.37] [-1.81,1.19] [-4.74,-1.84] [-6.10,-2.86] [-9.75,-6.04] [-5.95,-0.17]
Substance abuse 0.40 -0.00 -3.62*
-5.23* -0.40 -0.71 -1.85 -2.24 0.20 6.38*
[-3.17,3.97] [-3.65,3.64] [-7.19,-0.05]
[-9.28,-1.18] [-1.51,0.70] [-3.13,1.71] [-4.68,0.99] [-5.35,0.86] [-3.53,3.93] [1.07,11.68]
Depression 0.37 -0.59 -0.10
-4.60** -0.30 -0.74 -2.43* -1.69 -1.50 3.29
[-2.12,2.85] [-2.82,1.65] [-2.37,2.17]
[-7.66,-1.55] [-1.09,0.48] [-2.02,0.54] [-4.55,-0.32] [-4.33,0.95] [-4.60,1.61] [-0.60,7.19]
Hypothyroidism 0.90 0.20 0.21
-0.56 -0.29 -1.28** -5.35** -5.84** -5.88** -1.73
[-0.69,2.50] [-1.15,1.54] [-1.22,1.65]
[-2.27,1.15] [-0.75,0.18] [-2.01,-0.55] [-6.66,-4.04] [-7.39,-4.29] [-7.60,-4.16] [-3.78,0.33]
Paralysis and other -0.21 -1.99** -1.68*
-12.61** -0.62** -1.82** 6.47** 7.58** 9.79** 10.28**
neurological disordr [-1.91,1.48] [-3.49,-0.49] [-3.20,-0.15]
[-14.58,-10.64] [-1.07,-0.17] [-2.63,-1.00] [4.77,8.18] [5.75,9.41] [7.87,11.70] [7.76,12.79]
Weight loss -2.28 -1.21 -4.68**
-11.27** -1.09** 1.14 9.06** 16.27** 18.18** 13.94**
[-5.50,0.94] [-4.16,1.75] [-7.47,-1.89]
[-14.95,-7.60] [-1.61,-0.57] [-0.87,3.14] [5.30,12.82] [12.32,20.23] [14.09,22.27] [9.59,18.29]
Fluid and electrolyte -0.73 -2.75** -2.40**
-12.53** -0.38* 0.56 9.78** 11.53** 11.57** 11.27**
disorders [-1.89,0.44] [-3.79,-1.70] [-3.53,-1.27]
[-13.91,-11.15] [-0.72,-0.04] [-0.15,1.27] [8.58,10.98] [10.24,12.81] [10.17,12.96] [9.53,13.01]
Anemia 0.01 0.04 0.06
-3.78** -0.38* 1.61** -4.48** -4.13** -1.80* 1.67
[-1.25,1.27] [-0.96,1.04] [-1.00,1.11]
[-5.28,-2.28] [-0.75,-0.01] [0.77,2.45] [-5.70,-3.26] [-5.51,-2.75] [-3.24,-0.35] [-0.18,3.53]
for-profit hospital 10.47** -0.21 -6.64*
-2.46 -0.56 -0.15 0.01 0.67 2.22* 1.26
[6.26,14.68] [-4.45,4.03] [-11.90,-1.39]
[-6.59,1.67] [-1.15,0.04] [-1.05,0.74] [-1.62,1.64] [-1.13,2.46] [0.29,4.16] [-0.77,3.30]
government hospital -17.10** -3.10 -11.38**
-4.88* 0.04 -1.02 3.70** 3.94** 3.06* -0.23
[-23.95,-10.24] [-9.79,3.60] [-18.36,-4.39]
[-8.86,-0.89] [-0.54,0.61] [-2.13,0.09] [1.42,5.98] [1.52,6.36] [0.41,5.71] [-3.04,2.59]
teaching hospital 9.26** -7.78* -16.37**
-11.77** 0.62 -2.35** 0.23 -0.36 0.20 -0.30
[3.19,15.32] [-15.14,-0.42] [-23.12,-9.62]
[-16.62,-6.91] [-0.08,1.33] [-3.82,-0.87] [-1.82,2.29] [-2.53,1.80] [-2.10,2.50] [-3.39,2.78]
hospital beds 24.28** 34.80** 39.49**
21.60** -0.84** 3.64** -0.82 -0.62 -0.71 -3.09**
(log transformed) [19.88,28.68] [30.05,39.55] [33.90,45.08]
[17.84,25.35] [-1.25,-0.43] [2.85,4.42] [-1.85,0.22] [-1.85,0.62] [-2.05,0.63] [-4.76,-1.42]
occupancy rate 53.15** 63.20** 61.63**
45.02** -2.56** 3.56** -6.52** -7.48** -6.89** -11.13**
[42.08,64.22] [53.15,73.25] [48.65,74.61]
[36.70,53.33] [-3.91,-1.21] [1.25,5.86] [-10.18,-2.87] [-11.57,-3.39] [-11.39,-2.38]
[-16.39,-
5.86]
hospital is part of a -4.07* 3.71** 8.96**
2.42* -0.12 1.15** -1.45* -2.06** -2.38** -1.16
system [-7.35,-0.79] [0.97,6.44] [5.51,12.41]
[0.50,4.33] [-0.55,0.31] [0.44,1.86] [-2.62,-0.28] [-3.38,-0.75] [-3.77,-0.98] [-3.01,0.69]
hospital HHI, based 4.49 15.16 12.62
22.72** 1.72 4.17 -6.30 -3.23 -2.10 -6.78
on 15-mi radius [-18.02,27.01] [-2.02,32.33] [-8.83,34.08]
[7.63,37.81] [-1.04,4.48] [-0.47,8.81] [-14.03,1.44] [-11.70,5.24] [-12.15,7.94] [-18.01,4.45]
N 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 29939 23199
Year dummies included; Nearest ED fixed effects included
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STROBE 2007 (v4) checklist of items to be included in reports of observational studies in epidemiology*
Checklist for cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies (combined)
Section/Topic Item # Recommendation Reported on page #
Title and abstract 1 (a) Indicate the study’s design with a commonly used term in the title or the abstract 1, 2
(b) Provide in the abstract an informative and balanced summary of what was done and what was found 2
Introduction
Background/rationale 2 Explain the scientific background and rationale for the investigation being reported 4
Objectives 3 State specific objectives, including any pre-specified hypotheses 5-6
Methods
Study design 4 Present key elements of study design early in the paper 6
Setting 5 Describe the setting, locations, and relevant dates, including periods of recruitment, exposure, follow-up, and data
collection 6-7
Participants 6 (a) Cohort study—Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of selection of participants. Describe
methods of follow-up
Case-control study—Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of case ascertainment and control
selection. Give the rationale for the choice of cases and controls
Cross-sectional study—Give the eligibility criteria, and the sources and methods of selection of participants
7
(b) Cohort study—For matched studies, give matching criteria and number of exposed and unexposed
Case-control study—For matched studies, give matching criteria and the number of controls per case N/A
Variables 7 Clearly define all outcomes, exposures, predictors, potential confounders, and effect modifiers. Give diagnostic
criteria, if applicable 7-8
Data sources/ measurement 8* For each variable of interest, give sources of data and details of methods of assessment (measurement). Describe
comparability of assessment methods if there is more than one group 6-8
Bias 9 Describe any efforts to address potential sources of bias 13-14
Study size 10 Explain how the study size was arrived at 7
Quantitative variables 11 Explain how quantitative variables were handled in the analyses. If applicable, describe which groupings were chosen
and why 7-8
Statistical methods 12 (a) Describe all statistical methods, including those used to control for confounding 8-9
(b) Describe any methods used to examine subgroups and interactions 9
(c) Explain how missing data were addressed 9
(d) Cohort study—If applicable, explain how loss to follow-up was addressed
Case-control study—If applicable, explain how matching of cases and controls was addressed N/A
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Cross-sectional study—If applicable, describe analytical methods taking account of sampling strategy
(e) Describe any sensitivity analyses 9
Results
Participants 13* (a) Report numbers of individuals at each stage of study—eg numbers potentially eligible, examined for eligibility,
confirmed eligible, included in the study, completing follow-up, and analysed 10
(b) Give reasons for non-participation at each stage N/A
(c) Consider use of a flow diagram N/A
Descriptive data 14* (a) Give characteristics of study participants (eg demographic, clinical, social) and information on exposures and
potential confounders 10, Table 2
(b) Indicate number of participants with missing data for each variable of interest Table 2
(c) Cohort study—Summarise follow-up time (eg, average and total amount) N/A
Outcome data 15* Cohort study—Report numbers of outcome events or summary measures over time N/A
Case-control study—Report numbers in each exposure category, or summary measures of exposure N/A
Cross-sectional study—Report numbers of outcome events or summary measures 11-12, Table 2
Main results 16 (a) Give unadjusted estimates and, if applicable, confounder-adjusted estimates and their precision (eg, 95%
confidence interval). Make clear which confounders were adjusted for and why they were included 11-12, Tables 3 and 4
(b) Report category boundaries when continuous variables were categorized 10
(c) If relevant, consider translating estimates of relative risk into absolute risk for a meaningful time period N/A
Other analyses 17 Report other analyses done—eg analyses of subgroups and interactions, and sensitivity analyses 11-12
Discussion
Key results 18 Summarise key results with reference to study objectives 12
Limitations 19 Discuss limitations of the study, taking into account sources of potential bias or imprecision. Discuss both direction
and magnitude of any potential bias 13-14
Interpretation 20 Give a cautious overall interpretation of results considering objectives, limitations, multiplicity of analyses, results
from similar studies, and other relevant evidence 12-14
Generalisability 21 Discuss the generalisability (external validity) of the study results 14
Other information
Funding 22 Give the source of funding and the role of the funders for the present study and, if applicable, for the original study on
which the present article is based 17
*Give information separately for cases and controls in case-control studies and, if applicable, for exposed and unexposed groups in cohort and cross-sectional studies.
Note: An Explanation and Elaboration article discusses each checklist item and gives methodological background and published examples of transparent reporting. The STROBE
checklist is best used in conjunction with this article (freely available on the Web sites of PLoS Medicine at http://www.plosmedicine.org/, Annals of Internal Medicine at
http://www.annals.org/, and Epidemiology at http://www.epidem.com/). Information on the STROBE Initiative is available at www.strobe-statement.org.
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