DMUG 2016 - Dr Ben Marner, Air Quality Consultant

NOx Emissions from Modern

Diesel Vehicles

Dr Ben Marner

Introduction

• Compile results from real-world emissions tests

• See how Defra’s EFT is performing

• Can we improve on the EFT’s predictions?

Historical Context

Predicted Measured

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

An

nu

al M

ean

NO

2 (m

g/m

3 )

Objective

Official

No Reductions in Emissionsper Vehicle

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%2

00

8

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

Euro 6

Euro 5

Euro 4

Euro 3

Euro 2

Euro 1

Pre-Euro 1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

Euro VI

Euro V

Euro IV

Euro III

Euro II

Euro I

“Emissionsgate”

Composition of National

Diesel Car Fleet (v/km)

Composition of National

Artic HGV Fleet (v/km)

“Past Performance is no Guarantee of Future Results”*

*my pension statement

Compiled Test Results for

Euro 6 Diesel Cars

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Co

nfo

rmit

y Fa

cto

r

Dynanometer PEMS/SEMS

Tu Graz TNO ADAC TFL TNO Weiss ICCT Emissions Analytics

Tate

Remote

5 Veh Tested

10 Veh Tested

20 Veh Tested

Key

Weighted Average from Dyno and Pems/Sems tests

Dynanometer PEMS/SEMS

Tu Graz TNO ADAC TFL TNO Weiss ICCT Emissions Analytics

Tate

Remote

5 Veh Tested

10 Veh Tested

20 Veh Tested

Key

Weighted Average from Dyno and Pems/Sems tests

Euro 6 Diesel Cars

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Co

nfo

rmit

y Fa

cto

r

Speed (kph)

Studies whereAverage Speedis NotReported

Studies Wherean AverageSpeed isReported

Studies Wherea Range ofSpeeds isReported

WeightedAverage

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Co

nfo

rmit

y Fa

cto

r

Speed (kph)

COPERT 4 V10E6

AllMeasurementStudies

WeightedAverage fromMeasurements

Euro 6 Diesel Cars

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Co

nfo

rmit

y Fa

cto

r

Speed (kph)

COPERT 4 V10E6

UpliftedEmissions

AllMeasurementStudies

WeightedAverage fromMeasurements

Euro 6 Diesel Cars

Heavies

• Few vehicles/engines tested (15 engines + remote

sensing)

• Lots of possible engine / vehicle combinations

• g/kwh or g/km

• Focused on relative differences between Euro

standards

Heavies

Substantial Reductions from Euro V to Euro VI – both Measured and Predicted

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Euro

VI a

s %

of

Euro

V

Speed (kph)

Buses and Coaches COPERT

HGVs COPERT

TNO, 2014 Urban

TNO, 2014 Extra-urban EVI

TU Graz, 2013

TfL, 2015 (Artic)

Tate, 2013

Tate, 2015 (Artic)

Tate, 2015 (Rigid)

Heavies

Measured Reductions up to Euro V Less Persuasive

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Euro

V a

s %

of

Euro

III

Speed (kph)

COPERT V10 HGVs

COPERT V10 Bus and Choach

TNO, 2014

Carslaw and Ryhs-Tyler, 2013

Tate, 2013

Tate, 2015

Tate, 2015

Heavies

• No Strong Evidence of Reduction between Euro III

and Euro V

So uplift Euro IV and V to parity with Euro III

• Euro VI ca. 80% Reduction from Euro V

So set Euro VI to be 20% of Euro III*

*For the equivalent vehicle type, when emissions for all speeds are averaged

Heavies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V (EGR) Euro V (SCR) Euro VI

Emis

sio

ns

as %

of

Euro

III

Rigid <=7,5 t

Rigid 7,5 - 12 t

Rigid 12 - 14 t

Rigid 14 - 20 t

Rigid 20 - 26 t

Rigid 26 - 28 t

Rigid 28 - 32 t

Rigid >32 t

Articulated 14 - 20 t





Emission Standard

Summary of Adjustments

Vehicle Type Adjustment Applied to Emission Factors

All Petrol Vehicles No adjustment

Light Duty Diesel Vehicles

Euro 5 and earlier

No adjustment

Euro 6 Uplifted (to provide a Conformity Factor of 5)

Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles

Euro III and earlier

No adjustment

Euro IV and V

Set to equal Euro III values for equivalent vehicle type

Euro VI Multiplied by between 1.8 and 4.4 (depending on vehicle type) to equal 20% of Euro III emissions (for that vehicle

type)

Overall Effect

Phasing of Euro 6

Euro 6a/b 2015/16 - 2017 ‘New’ European Drive Cycle (NEDC)

2017 - 2020 Euro 6c World Light-duty

Test Cycle

Real Driving Emissions (RDE) with Conformity

Factor of up to 2.1

2020 onward Euro 6d World Light-duty

Test Cycle RDE with Conformity Factor of up to 1.5*

* CF of 1 with a measurement tolerance of 0.5 to be reviewed yearly

CURED!

free to use and available from: www.aqconsultants.co.uk

Excel Calculator

The End

Thanks for Staying Awake

This presentation was based on a report which is available at:

http://www.aqconsultants.co.uk/Resources/Download-Reports.aspx

References are set out in the report linked above

Dr Ben Marner

Tel: 0117 974 1086

Email: [email protected]

Head Office

23 Coldharbour Road, Bristol BS6 7JT

Tel: 0117 974 1086

London Office

12 Airedale Road, London SW12 8SF

Tel/Fax: 020 8673 4313

DMUG 2016 - Dr Ben Marner, Air Quality Consultant

Environment