University of Hertfordshire Centre for Atmospheric & Instrumentation Research Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]
University of HertfordshireCentre for Atmospheric & Instrumentation ResearchUsing Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities
Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]
Thanks to:Dr Vikas Singh, Dr Charles Chemel, Prof Ranjeet Sokhi NERC (HiRAE), NCAS (Air Quality Forecast) and DefraBristol City CouncilTfGM, Salford and Oldham CouncilsFP7 Transphorm Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Overview• Mesoscale Models – Regional to National Scale
E.g. The NCAS-UH Air Quality Forecast
• Regional scale signals contribute at the City scale
• Coupling Regional to Local modelsE.g. The HiRAE Project
• Application of Regional-Local ForecastsE.g. Working with Local Authorities
Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Resolution:Europe (50 km)
UK (10 km)
Vertical levels:24 levels
A Mesoscale modeling system:
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Resolution:Europe (50 km)
UK (10 km)
Vertical levels:24 levels
A Mesoscale modeling system:
A 72 Hour ahead Air Quality forecast
WRF: Weather Research and Forecasting Model
SMOKE: The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel
Emissions Modelling System
MEGAN: The Model of Emissions of
Gases and Aerosols from Nature
CMAQ: The Community Multi-scale
Air Quality CMAQ modelling system
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
WRFNumerical weather prediction model
CMAQChemical transport model
A Mesoscale modeling system:
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
European TNO emissions (2005)Ten SNAP (Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) source sectors and international shipping
SNAP Sectors Combustion in energy and transformation industries Non-industrial combustion plants Combustion in manufacturing industry Production processes
Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy Solvents and other product use Road transport
Other mobile sources and machinery Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture
A Mesoscale modeling system:
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
A Mesoscale modeling system:
The NCAS Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system designed for the research community but is available publicly for all to view. The UK's official air quality forecast system operated by DEFRA for public information can be found at http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/.
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
A Mesoscale modeling system:
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
The NCAS Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system designed for the research community but is available publicly for all to view. The UK's official air quality forecast system operated by DEFRA for public information can be found at http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/forecasting/.
Hourly PM2.5Predictions for day 0-3 compare favourably with Urban and Rural sites
Rural
Urban
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Background
Forecast comparison with AURN measurements(01-Jan-2014 to 30-June-2014)
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
PM2.5 comparison statistics
Statistics calculated at 40 PM2.5 background sites
Forecast performance indexes• Correlation Coefficient (CORR)• Mean error (MERR)• Root mean square error (RMSE)
HiRAE - High Resolution Air-Quality and Exposure
1. Developed from the NCAS Air Quality Forecast
2. An ‘Innovation Project’ with City Authorities
3. To promote the use of Forecasting and Modelling technology
4. HiRAE is
1. A Co-Designed Project2. Delivering NCAS Forecast Data3. Developing new model products4. Facilitating data exchange and expertise
Application of the Mesoscale system
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
• Air Quality Impacts in the UK are substantial • Health impacts cost UK £16bn annually (Defra)
• A factor in 29,000 deaths annually (HoC EAC 2014)
• City Authorities • Responsible for managing Air Quality• Responsible for meeting EU Air Quality Limit
Values• Limited resources
• (e.g. Bristol 7 monitoring sites – no modelling ability)• They are steering the project to maximize
benefit.
Local Authorities
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Application of the Mesoscale system
Bristol
• City Authority• 1 Million People in the urban
area• England’s 6th largest City
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Greater Manchester
• TfGM and Councils• 2.5 Million People• Estimated 1300 deaths /140,000
adult years of life lost
Application of the Mesoscale system
• How can the UH-NCAS forecast provide maximum usefulness for Local Authorities?
• Prediction/Warning• NO2 and PM• Education• Understanding Complex System• Provide spatial data
• We are providing high resolution simulations of air pollution for cities
1) City Air Quality maps 2) Forecast dashboard
1) Data download2) Data visualization
3) Low exposure routes4) Public Outreach and Active Travel5) Transport Planning and Management
16Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Local AQ, Sources, Hotspots (e.g. PM, NOx)
Regional AQ/climate,
LRT,O3 and PM2.5
Urban AQ, Photochemical
smogNOx, Ozone, PM
Source apportionment
LOCAL
URBAN REGIONAL
GLOBAL
UK-City Forecast System• What are the city vs regional processes the model needs to consider?
• Meteorology• Localised sources and dispersion
• What does the system need to include?• Regional Signal• Local emissions• Local dispersion
A 72 Hour ahead Air Quality forecast
WRF: Weather Research and Forecasting Model
SMOKE: The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel
Emissions Modelling System
MEGAN: The Model of Emissions of
Gases and Aerosols from Nature
CMAQ: The Community Multi-scale
Air Quality CMAQ modelling system
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
WRFNumerical weather prediction model
CMAQChemical transport model
WRFNumerical weather prediction model
CMAQChemical transport model
Air Quality Data Pre-processorMet Data Pre-processor Emissions Data Pre-
processor
CAR-FMICity Scale Model
Run Daily:Europe - 50kmUK -10kmCity traffic model
Bristol, Manchester, London
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Bloomsbury Measurement
Combined Urban and Regional Model Signal
NO2 (µg/m3)
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
22
Main Output Products
Description
Model System UK Forecast (WRF-CMAQ) linked to City Model (OSCAR)
Data Dashboard Online data viewing and retrieval tool
Daily city scale forecast maps NO2, PM10 & PM2.5 3 day ahead high resolution maps
Population exposure Population exposure maps for NO2, PM10 & PM2.5 3 day ahead high resolution maps for Bristol and Manchester
Air quality statistics NO2, O3, PM10 & PM2.5 trends and means via the dashboard
Low Pollution and exposure Routes Low pollution routes for active travel
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
PROJECT OUTPUTS
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Conclusions 1
• Collaboration provides useful insight• City Authorities are interested in
• Spatial Data• Forecast DataFor use in• Environment Management• Traffic Management• Public Engagement
• NCAS Forecast now operates with an interface for city scale modelling
Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in Cities
Dr Aidan R Farrow [email protected]
Using Mesoscale Models to Forecast Air Quality in CitiesConclusions 2
• Mesoscale Models – Regional to National Scale E.g. The NCAS-UH Air Quality Forecast
• Regional scale signals contribute at the City scale
• Coupling Regional to Local modelsE.g. The HiRAE Project
• Application of Regional-Local ForecastsE.g. Working with Local Authorities
Thanks to:Dr Vikas Singh, Dr Charles Chemel, Prof Ranjeet Sokhi NERC (HiRAE), NCAS (Air Quality Forecast) and DefraBristol City CouncilTfGM, Salford and Oldham CouncilsFP7 Transphorm Dr Aidan Farrow [email protected]