Dinamika Persaingan Industri Telekomunikasi Mas Wigrantoro Roes Setiyadi Ketua Masyarakat Telematika Indonesia (MASTEL) [email protected] Jakarta, 31 Oktober 2007
Dinamika Persaingan IndustriTelekomunikasi
Mas Wigrantoro Roes SetiyadiKetua Masyarakat Telematika Indonesia (MASTEL)[email protected]
Jakarta, 31 Oktober 2007
3/2/08 maswig for UI 2
Profile MasWig
Pendidikan• Sarjana Teknik Informatika, Univesitas Budi Luhur (d/h STMIK Budi Luhur), 1992• Sarjana Ekonomi, Universitas Indonesia, 1996• Master in Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 2000• Magister Sains Akuntansi, Universitas Indonesia, 2002• Kandidat Doktor, Program Studi Ilmu Manajemen, PPS-FEUI
Profesi / Jabatan• Wakil Direktur Utama, PT Pratama Jaringan Nusantara• Direktur Institute for Technology and Economic Policy Studies <<INSTEPS>>• Ketua MASTEL• Dosen Pasca Sarjana:
– Universitas Prof. Dr. Moestopo (Beragama): Perkembangan TI & Komunikasi– Universitas Budi Luhur: Ethics & Cyberlaws; Strategi Sistem Informasi / TI
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Agenda
• Scope of Telecommunication Discourse• Current business environment• Industry Competitive Analysis• Competitive Dynamics• Strategy to Win Competition• Q & A
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Lingkup Kajian Telekomunikasi
Teknologi Hukum Kebijakan &Regulasi
ImplikasiSosialEkonomi
JaringanMedia
TransmisiTransmiter
Receiver
Protokol
Signaling
Modulasi
VoIP
Interkoneksi
Conduct
Struktur
Investasi
Kinerja
NilaiEkonomi
Layanan
PP.
UU
Dll.
Interkoneksi
Standar
BHP
Tarif
USO
Lisensi Internasional
Dll.
Perilaku
Manfaat
Teledensitas
Digital Divide
Dll.
VAS
LandingRight
Mobilitas
Telekomunikasi
Dll.
PerMen
Perda.
KepDirjen
Dll.
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• Threats and opportunities• Shifts in consumers behavior
The Operators business environment
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Business dynamic that impact operators business strategy
Confusion in both media and telecom markets
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Changes in consumer behavior• Always on
Call Forwarding -> Mobile -> Internet -> Mobile TV• Presence based services
- How to be reachable• Mobility
- Roaming, WiFi handover, Service Portability• Service usage
- e/M-commerce, data, multimedia• Payment models changing
- Point Of Sales, Realtime Charging, Prepaid Combinations
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The service ecosystems…• Consumers …
– Wants: simplicity, usability and access to the “Net” and cool things.– Consumption is rapid and instant– Access is just expected wherever I am
• Application (service) providers …– Communication network is simple the channel to reach customers.– Target to keep customers always on, regardless of network, location or
terminal.– Advertising is a vital source of revenues.
• Operators …– Keep customer loyal and increase service usage, ARPU.– Consolidation of production environments to lower OPEX in an
increasing competitive market.– The true challenge is to move towards a common strategy for service
delivery towards; Broadband, Fixed and Mobile networks.
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Convergence from a users perspective
Terminal: The terminal at hand present theservice I want to access.
Access: Best possible network resource isengaged to access the service.
Service: Based on the service type,bandwith, method of presentation set therules how to present the service
Subscription, Authentication,Accounting…
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Technology shift and uncertainties
• Web 2.0– True personalization impacts the expectation of
communication– RSS and bloggs are used over any media– Communities and IM replace traditional communications– New business models (mainly advertising driven)
• Telco– An all IP-based world will create new business models– New communication providers change the business models– The business model is threatening traditional telecoms– For many subscribers, price combined with presence is
currently more important than quality.
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“Coverage is king” regardless of accesstechnology
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Telco Business trends
Convergence aspects• Terminal – Multi network access, multimedia• Network – Converged network for any service• Services – Mashups, service Portability• Access – Core network must support different access
methods
Convergence is more than an aggregated bill• Combination of services that adds value to the customer• Operational synergies• New market opportunities• Play higher in the value chain
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• Captive Market• Relatively homogeneous portfolio• Thick margin• Sole player• Supporting roles• Passive business approach
• Competitive market• Relatively heterogeneous product• Thin margin•Multi players•Creative partnership• Leading roles• Proactive business developer
Telco Business Challenge
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Short term issues and key businessobjectivesShort term issues• Core production systems reaches its “end of life”• Long process to introduce changes customizations in today’s
production environment.• Different service platforms for different networks, Fixed,
Mobile and IP networks
Key objective in business decisions• Supports and enhance core business and then operators
competitive edge.• Supports migration towards NGN architecture• Allow for flexible and open service development environment• Having the ability to introduce new service rapidly
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Alternative revenue stream’s impact onmy businessAdvertising and new business models will constantly impact operator’straditional business model.Example: Starbucks – iPhone – iTune concept will compete with traditionaldownload bus
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Structure - Conduct - Performance
• Industry Competitive Analysis
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Industry Structure•Number of competing firms•Homogeneity of product•Cost of entry and exit
Firm Conduct•Price taking•Product differentiation•Tacit Collusion•Exploiting market power
Performance•Firm Level: normal, below normal,above normal preference•Society, productive and allocativeefficiency, level of employment, progress
The Structure ConductPerformance
Model (Barney, 2007)
S - C - P
Market Structure
The ways in which the structure of an industryreact to, and reflect, the underlying influences of
technology and preferences
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Types Industry Structure, Firm Conduct Option, Firm Performance, andSocial Welfare Implications (Barney,2007)
Type of
IndustryIndustry Attributes Example
Firm Conduct
Option
Expected Firm
Performance
Social
Welfare
Implcation
Perfect
Competition
Large number of
computing firm
Homogenous
products
Low-cost entry and
exit
Stock market
Crude oil
Price Taking Normal Social
welfare
maximal
Monopolistic
Competition
Large number of
computing firm
Homogenous
products
Low-cost entry and
exit
Tooth Paste
Shampoo
Golf ball
Automobiles
Product
Differentiation
(see Chapter 8)
Above Normal Less than
perfect
competition
Oligopoly Small number of
computing firm
Homogenous or
Heterogenous
products
Costly-entry and
exit
U.S steel and
autos in the
1950s
U.S breakfast
sereal
Collution
(see Chapter
10)
Above Normal Less than
monopolistic
competition
Monopoly One firm
Costly entry
Tooth Paste
Shampoo
Product
Differentiation
Above Normal Less than
Oligopoly
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INDUSTRY SEGMENT LEGAL STATUS OPERATOR(S)Kompetisi Indosat, Telkom, Esia
PUBLIC SWITCH Fix Wireline Duopoly Telkom, Batam-Bintan Telkom
TELEPHONE NETWORK Fix Wireless Kompetisi Telkom, Indosat, Esia
DOMESTIC CDMA-450 Regional License Sampoerna Telekomunikasi
Mobile GSM Kompetisi
Telkomsel, Satelindo, Excelcom,
NTS, 3
3G Kompetisi
Telkomsel, Satelindo, Excelcom,
NTS, 3
CDMA Kompetisi Mobile-8, Smart
Long Distance Monopoly Telkom
INFRASTRUCTURE TERRESTRIAL Kompetisi Semua Operator
SATELLITE Kompetisi Satelindo, PSN, CSM, Telkom
VALUE ADDED SERVICES Data Com, ISP, Payphone, etc. Competition Licensed operators
(Network)
SPECIAL NETWORK VSAT, Trunking Competetition Licensed operators
PRIVATE NETWORK No Resale Any Private Companies
Telephone Swicth
Transmission
MANUFACTURING Broadband Switch Competetition Any Companies
CPE
SERVICES INTERNATIONAL GATEWAY
Indonesia Telco - Market Structure
Penyelenggara TelekomunikasiPelanggan kartu pra bayar menurut OperatorTelekomunikasi pada Tanggal 25 Juli 2007
Sampoerna
Telekomunikasi
Indonesia; 198.000;
0%
Telkom;
13.301.000; 15%
Indosat;
19.636.990; 22%
Telkomsel;
41.001.000; 47%
Bakrie Telecom;
1.997.127; 2%
Mobile-8;
2.175.731; 2%
XL; 9.743.245;
11%
Hutchinson;
1.057.338; 1%
Natrindo; 9.590;
0%
Sumber: Dirjen Postel
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Competitive Dynamics
• Actions - Reactions• Strategic Moves• Make profit > Competitors• Sustainable Competitive
Advantage
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Telco Business Character
TECHNOLOGY
REGULATORY
FUND
BUSINESS STRATEGY
Adopted from: Rudiantara, 2003
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Network Externalities
• the value of a unit of the good increases with thenumber of units sold
• the value of a unit of the good increases with theexpected number of units to be sold
• externalities arise in the act of exchanging assets orgoods.
• externalities may arise in the array of verticallyrelated services that compose a financialtransaction.
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The Five Force Model of Environmental
Level of threatin an industry
Threat ofSupplier
Threat of Entry Threat of rivalry
Threat ofSubstitutes
Threat ofBuyer
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What do we want to be?Not, What do we want to do?
CompetitiveAdvantage
Distinctivecompetence
Corecompetence
Profits above average regional countries.Adopted from Coff (1999) & Powell (2001).
Products and services better than country-competitors doAdopted from Ansoff (1965), Andrew (1971).
Resources create variety of products, gainhigher revenue.Adopted from Prahalad & Hamel (1990).
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Strategic decisionsStrategic decisions
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Dynamics of Competition (1)
• Process of competition over time• Erosion of competitive advantage
– Changes in five forces– Competitors overcoming adverse forces
• Cycles of competitive response– Slow: long periods of established pattern of
competition– Fast: hyper competition, constant disequilibrium
and change
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Dynamics of Competition (2)
• Implications of speed of competitive cycle:– Slow-moving - build and sustain competitive
advantages which are difficult to imitate– Fast-moving - advantage is temporary, disrupt
status quo, sequence of short-lived moves
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Cycles of Competition
Exhibit 2.7
Source: Adapted with the permission of the Free Press, a Division of Simon & Schuster, from R.A. D’Aveni with Robert Gunther, Hyper –Competitive Rivalries: Competing in a Highly Dynamic Environment © 1994, 1995 by Richard A.D’Aveni, All rights resvered.
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Competitive Strategy
• Industrial Organization(Outside In)
• Resource-based Theory(Inside Out)
• Austrian School(Hypercompetition)
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The business idea
Exhibit II.i
Layers of the business environment
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Defining the strategy
• Who is my prime customer target?– Business, Residential, Age group, ethnic groups…
• What network resources do I have that bring me competitive edge?– Single network operator or– Multiple network operator
• Prime services that must be protected?– Services with limited competition– Service that generate significant revenue– Service that prevent churn
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StrategiBisnis
Moves proaktifungguli pesaing
Usaha bangunkeunggulan daya
saing
Strategi supplychain management
Menanggapiperubahan lingkunganpolitik, ekonomi dan
industri
MenjangkauekspansiGeografis
Kolaborasi,kemitraan,
aliansi strategik
Strategi Keuangan
Strategi Fungsional
Strategi R&D
Strategi service/ Manufacturing
Strategi Pemasaran
Strategi SDM
Sumber: Thompson & Strickland (2003)
MenciptakanNilai BagiKonsumen
Membangun Strategi Bisnis
Dr. Albert Widjaja, FEUI, p. 8.
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Telecommunication Value Chain
Consumer Electronic
Databases
Network Management
VAS
PTOs
Telecom Equipment
Software
Computer H/W
Internet
Equipment Supply Telecomm Infrastructure Service Development
Competitive Market Monopoly / Duopoly / Oligopoly Competitive Market
regulators will need to monitor the extent and significance ofcompetition in telecom markets, and take positive steps to reduce barriers to entry
wherever possible
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Strategic Groups
Strategic groups are organisations within anindustry with similar strategiccharacteristics, following similar strategiesor competing on similar bases
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Some characteristics for identifyingstrategic groups
Exhibit 2.8
Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategicgroups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.
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Identification of Strategic Groups (1)
• Scope of activities– Product/service diversity– Geographical coverage– Number of market segments served– Distribution channels
Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategicgroups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.
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Identification of Strategic Groups (2)
• Resource commitment– Extent of branding– Marketing effort– Extent of vertical integration– Product/service quality– Technological position (leader, follower)– Size of organisation
Sources: Based on M.E. Porter, Competitive Strategy, Free Press, 1980; and J. McGee and H. Thomas, ‘Strategicgroups: theory, research and taxonomy’, Strategic Management Journal, vol. 7, no. 2 (1986), pp. 141–160.
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Uses of Strategic Group Analysis
• To understand who are the most direct competitors of anorganisation
• To establish the different bases of competitive rivalrywithin and between the strategic groups
• To assess if an organisation could move from one groupto another– Depends on barriers to entry
• To identify opportunities and threats– Changes in the macro-environment may create
strategic space
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Users
Mob ile Network Operators
Dealers
ContractManufacturers
ComponentAnd EquipmentSuppliers
Mob ile HandsetManufactures
Mob ileInfrastructureManufacturers
Content Providers
Mob ile Application Providers
Specialized ServicesBanking , Accounting ,
Leg al
Specialized Risk Capital
Cellular Industry Cluster
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?
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Q&A
Contact:Mas Wigrantoro Roes SetiyadiEmail: [email protected]: +6281876006URL: http://maswig.blogspot,com & http://maswigrs.wordpress.com