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Dalian FortuneResearch Shenzhen

China

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Asia joins world

economy

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UNITED NATIONS Asia Pacific economic economies will see

subdued growth in 2013 after last years sharp slowdown caused by

external factors, is the prognosis from a recent UN survey.Economic growth in the developing countries of Asia and the

Pacific slowed to 5.5 percent in 2012 as a result of the double-dip

recession in the Euro zone and the tepid recovery of the U.S.

economy, the report advises.

The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific/2013

outlines a cautious survey for the current year, although growth is

expected to inch up to 6 percent in 2013, this rate is still below theaverage of 7.8 percent achieved in 2010-2011 and the average of 8.6

percent observed during the pre-crisis period of 2002-2007. The

annual report is a product of the UNs Bangkok-based Economic and

Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

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Chinas economy has lost its much of its luster. While Beijings

official growth rate for 2012, stood at 7.8 percent, this year the

GDP is expected to grow slightly to 8 percent. Importantly India

whose growth dipped dangerously to 5 percent in 2012 should

climb back to 6.4 percent this year. Export oriented economieshave seen significant drops in demand especially from the USA.

Much of the improvements rests on improvement in global

demand arising from steady, although sub-par, growth in the

United States, and a limited rebound in the performance of major

emerging economies.

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But beyond the numbers, Pingfan Hong, Chief of the Global

Monitoring unit at the UNs Department of Economic and Social

Affairs (DESA) stressed, although global financial markets had

seen improvements in terms of equity prices, the realeconomy

lacked robust improvement. China has slowed down, and

sluggishgrowth was expected in South Korea. Seouls growth

is expected to go from 2 percent in 2012 to only 2.3 percent this

year.

Hong stated that developing countries in Asia had suffered aloss of 3.7 percent in GDP over the last four or five years since

the crisis had struck.

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The Survey suggests, much lower growth compared to recent

years could became a new normal for many regional economies if

present economic trends were to continue. Equally despite years

of past progress, the Survey concedes that the Asia-Pacific region

is still home to more than 800 million poor; in fact two-thirds of the

words poor.The survey advises, the model of grow first, distribute and clean

up later was no longer acceptable. Thats so very true. Just view

the environmental damage from Chinas fast and polluting growth

which seems blurred by a grey and choking haze enveloping most

Mainland cities.

Nonetheless there still much impressive news from the region as

the survey illustrates.

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Southeast Asia is expected to gain from improved, although

still tepid global trade. Indonesia is a regional powerhouse with

growth expected to come in at 6.6 percent this year along with

the Philippines at 6.2 percent and Thailand at 5.3 percent.The survey suggests a number of measures which would help

regional economies expand. For example, China should reduce

its reliance on exports and expand its domestic consumption.

The survey states this would spur inter-regional trade.

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Significantly boosting Chinas domestic consumption would help

American exporters too. Despite all the feel good statistics we

see regarding the China trade, the facts remains that whileAmerican exports to the Mainland are at an all time high at $110

billion, what is not said is that Chinese exports to the USA are all

the much higher. In 2012, the USA hit a $315 billion deficit with

the Peoples Republic and thats in a recession. The year before

the U.S. trade deficit with Beijing stood at an unacceptable $295

billion.

Though the USAs economic recovery and job creation remainstepid, expanding truly free trade with global partners can boost

both American exports and the still underperforming U.S.

economy. Its about time we do so.

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Source:

http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/04/26/asia-joins-world-

economys-new-normal-as-china-loses-its-edge/

http://dalianfortuneresearch.wordpress.com/2013/04/29/asia-

joins-world-economy-dalian-fortune-research-shenzhen-china-

dfrshenzhen-com/