Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives Development of a mathematical model for tsetse population dynamic to optimize the control in the Niayes (Senegal) A. A. FALL 1,2 , R. Lancelot 1 , J. Bouyer 1,2 , A. Dicko 2,3 & M. T. Seck 2 1 UMR Contrˆole des Maladies Animales Exotiques et Emergentes (CMAEE) Centre de coop´ eration internationale en recherche agronomique pour le d´ eveloppement (CIRAD) 2 Institut S´ en´ egalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA) (LNERV) 3 Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique (ENSAE-Senegal) 5 octobre 2011 A. A. FALL 1,2 , R. Lancelot 1 , J. Bouyer 1,2 , A. Dicko 2,3 & M. T. Seck Tsetse population dynamic
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Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
Development of a mathematical model for tsetsepopulation dynamic to optimize the control in the
Niayes (Senegal)
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T.Seck2
1 UMR Controle des Maladies Animales Exotiques et Emergentes (CMAEE)Centre de cooperation internationale en recherche agronomique pour le
developpement (CIRAD)2 Institut Senegalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA) (LNERV)
3 Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique (ENSAE-Senegal)
5 octobre 2011
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
Plan
1 Context
2 Objectives
3 The Data
4 Tsetse Model
5 Perspectives
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
Context
The Senegalese government aims to control trypanosomosisfrom the Niayes region by eradicating the tsetse vector,Glossina palpalis gambiensis
In 2005, the Senegalese government initiated a controlcampaign called �Projet de lutte contre les glossines dans lesNiayes� with a main objective to eradicate tsetse fly in theNiayes area.
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
Study area
Figure: Distribution of tsetse flies in the Niayes areaA. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
Objectives
Determination of temperatures ”feeled” by tsetse
Establish a mathematical model to optimize the controlmeasures
Estimation of the model parameters by fitting the model tofield data (densities , age structure)
Establish the map of distribution
Establish the metapopulation model using the tsetse map ofdistribution
Optimize the control processes measures for tsetse eradicationin the Niayes
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
The data
According to the Tsetse biology and ecology, the tsetse life cycle isdependent on the environmental and climatic conditions.We focused on the influence of average daily temperature (θt) ontsetse population dynamics.Field meteorological data are available in the study area and will bemodeled using Modis data.
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives
Temperature / Modis
date
tem
péra
ture
15202530354045
15202530354045
15202530354045
cadda
févr.-09 août-09 févr.-10 août-10
ean
juil.-09 janv.-10 juil.-10 janv.-11
ka
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
carmel
févr.-09 août-09 févr.-10 août-10
haddad
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010
sall
juil.-09 janv.-10 juil.-10 janv.-11
temp_air lstnight lstday
Figure: correlation between air temperature and soil temperature
A. A. FALL1,2, R. Lancelot1, J. Bouyer1,2, A. Dicko2,3 & M. T. Seck2Tsetse population dynamic
Context Objectives The Data Tsetse Model Perspectives