Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe ESSP conference, Beijing, 12. November 2006 Parallel 37: Sea level rise, vulnerability and impacts Hans von Storch, Katja Woth, Ralf Weisse, Burkhardt Rockel and Lidia Gaslikova GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
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Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe ESSP conference, Beijing, 12. November 2006 Parallel 37: Sea level rise, vulnerability.
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Detailed projections of coastal climate change until 2100 in N Europe
ESSP conference, Beijing, 12. November 2006 Parallel 37: Sea level rise, vulnerability and impacts
Hans von Storch, Katja Woth, Ralf Weisse, Burkhardt Rockel and Lidia Gaslikova
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
Overview
• Downscaling cascade to describe regional and local weather related variability n past decades.
• Usage of the same cascade to construct consistent scenarios of possible future regional and local climate conditions.
• Outlook
Katja Woth
Globales Geschehen
Dynamisches Downscaling
Hydrodynamisches Modellder Nordseezirkulation
Empirisches Downscaling
Pegel St.
Pauli
Zusammenarbeit u. a. mit BAW, BSH, ALR Husum, FSK Norderney, Hamburg Port Authority u.a.
Aber wie sieht es regional und lokal aus?
Extreme wind speeds over sea
– simulated and recordedsimuliert
Beobachtet
Trends of annual percentiles of surge heights
Weisse & Plüß, 2005
50%iles
90%iles
1958-2002
1958-2002
Changing significant waveheight, 1958-2002
wind
waves
waves
EU-Project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change
risks and Effects)
Impact scenarios
today
scenario
GCM
today
scenario
RCMs
scaleglobal local
ImpactImpactmodelmodel
Storm SurgeModel forthe North Sea:
- TRIM 3D
RegionalClimate Models:
- CLM- REMO- HIRHAM- RCAO
Global Climate Model
(HadAM3) IPCC A2
SRES Scenario
(1961-1990 / 2071-2100)
RCAO HIRHAM
CLM REMO5
A2 - CTL: changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind sector selected (247.5 to 292.5 deg)
Changes of annual 99-percentile wave heights averaged across a series of simulations using different models and scenarios (in m).Colouring indicates areas where signals from all models and scenarios have the same sign; red-positive, blue-negative.
Weisse und Grabemann, 2006
Projections for the future / surge Projections for the future / surge meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCAmeteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA
Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge / A2 - CTL: HIRHAM
Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge / A2 - CTL: RCA
“Localisation”: From the coast into the estuary
St Pauli
Scenarios 2030, 2085
Only the effect of changing weather conditions is considered, not the effect of water works such as dredging the shipping channel.
Outlook
• Similar challenges with assessing changes of other storms – tropical typhoons (SE Asia) and extra-tropical polar lows (N Atlantic)
• “Detection and Attribution”• Dataset CoastDat• Storms and damage
New efforts underway at GKSS
The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal Research at GKSS (ICR@gkss)
Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years) Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe “Standard” model systems (“frozen”) Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances. Data freely available.
Applications many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and
risks) and shipbuilding companyPublic information
www.coastdat.de
Damages and storms(Meeting of scientists and re-insurances; with Munich Re;
Hohenkammer, May 2006)
Consensus statement:„1. Climate change is real, and has a significant human component related to greenhouse gases.2. Direct economic losses of global disasters have increased inrecent decades with particularly large increases since the 1980s.8. Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date.9. The vulnerability of communities to natural disasters is determined by their economic development and other social characteristics.10. There is evidence that changing patterns of extreme events are drivers for recent increases in global losses.13. In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions is unlikely to be answered unequivocally.“