Demographic Trends Northeast Landscape Plan Update 2012 Minnesota Forest Resources Council April 18, 2012.

Demographic Trends

Northeast Landscape Plan Update 2012

Minnesota Forest Resources Council April 18, 2012

Population: 1970 - 2009

US Dept Commerce 2011

• Population shrank by 7%

• Employment grew by 40%

• Personal income grew (in real terms) by 75%

220,000230,000240,000250,000260,000270,000280,000 Population Trends

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000 Employment Trends

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000Personal Income Trends

Mill

ion

s o

f 2

01

1 $

s

Population

Population Growth2000 - 2010:

Carlton = 3,715 (11.7%)Cook = 8 ( 0.2%)Lake = -192 ( -1.7%)St. Louis = -302 ( -0.2%)

Region = 3,239 (1.3%)

MN = 7.8%

US = 9.7%

U.S. Census 2010

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

NE Population: 1970 - 2010

St. Louis Lake Cook Carlton

Population Projections

U.S. Census 2010, Minnesota Demographic Office

2000 2010 2015* 2020* 2025* 2030*0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

NE Population and Projections

St.Louis Lake Cook Carlton

Minnesota

Northeast

Carlton

Cook

Lake

St.Louis

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Projected Popula-tion Change (%)

2000-2030

Seasonal Population

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Occupied Vacant

US Dept. Commerce 2011

Population: Where is the growth?

U.S. Census 2010

2000 Urban 2000 Rural 2010 Urban 2010 Rural0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

NE Landscape

St. Louis Carlton Lake Cook

Population: Where is the growth?

U.S. Census 2010

Population Change 2000 - 2010

Population: Density

U.S. Census 2010

Carlton Cook Lake St. Louis NE Landscape0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Population Density (per sq. mile, land area)

199020102030*

MN

Age

MN Demographic Office

2000 2010 2020 20300

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

65+ 25-64 0-24

Gender

MN Demographic Office 2007

Male Female Male Female2010 2010 2030 2030

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+

Changing Population

ACS 2006-2010

Under 18

18-34

35-44

45-64

65 and over

0 20,000 40,000

26,216

29,756

15,245

37,311

17,288

24,750

26,838

14,349

36,085

22,703

2010* Breakout

Female Male

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000

-5,412

3,649

-8,713

12,757

-165

Change 2000-2010*

Northeast Landscape

Race/Ethnicity

ACS 2006-2010

Wh

ite

alo

ne

Bla

ck

or

Afr

ica

n A

me

ric

an

alo

ne

Am

eri

ca

n In

dia

n a

lon

e

As

ian

alo

ne

Na

tiv

e H

aw

aiia

n &

Oth

er

Pa

cif

ic Is

. a

lon

e

So

me

oth

er

rac

e a

lon

e

Tw

o o

r m

ore

ra

ce

s

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Population by Race, % of Total, 2010*

MFRC Northeast Landscape

U.S.0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0% 2.8%

0.8%

American Indian Popu-lation, Percent of Total,

2010*

Labor

MN Demographic Office, 2000 Census Data

2000 2010 2020 20300

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

NE Region: Labor Force Projections

65 plus45-6425-4416-24

Earnings

ACS 2006-2010

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Components of Personal Income

Labor earnings Non-labor income

Mill

ion

s o

f 2

01

1 $

s

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%

Non-Labor Income Share of Total Personal Income

Employment

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000Personal Income by Industry

Mill

ion

s o

f 2

01

1 $

s

Farm Agric. Services, Forestry, FishingMining (incl. fossil fuels) UtilitiesConstruction Manufact. (incl. forest products)Wholesale Trade Retail TradeTransportation, Warehousing InformationFinance, Insurance Real estate, Rental, LeasingProfessional, Scientific, Tech. Management of CompaniesAdmin., Waste services Educational Services

Employment

ACS 2006-2010

Northeast Landscape U.S.0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

Commodity Sectors, Percent of Private Employment, 2009

Timber % of total private em-ployment, 2009

Fossil fuels (oil, gas, & coal), 2009

Other mining, 2009

Agriculture % total employment, 2009

Employment

ACS 2006-2010

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Industries that include Travel & Tourism, Percent of Total Private Employment, 2009

Passenger Transportation* Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation*

Accommodations & Food*

Regional Highlights

• NE population = 251,654 (4.8% of MN)• NE Region added 3229 residents between 2000 and

2010 (1.3% versus 7.8% increase for MN)• County populations rank 6th, 30th, 66th and 83rd in state • Carlton County grew faster than MN. Lake and St.

Louis counties lost population • Just over half of the population is “urban”• Population density about 1/3 that of MN

Regional Highlights

• A significant seasonal population (12% housing)• Fastest growth among 45-64 (boomer) age group• Population expected to increase at rate below MN• Growth to occur in urban population?• Gender balanced but differences by cohort• Aging, shrinking (?) labor force• Services driving employment and personal labor

income• Timber, mining and tourism set region apart from MN

or US

Relative Performance, 2009

MFRC Northeast

LandscapeMinnesota

Trends

Population (percent change, 2000-2009) -0.1% 6.7%

Employment (percent change, 2000-2009) 0.8% 3.1%

Personal Income (percent change, 2000-2009) 9.1% 10.0%

Average Earnings per Job (percent change, 2000-2009) 1.2% 1.1%

Per Capita Income (percent change, 2000-2009) 9.2% 3.1%

Prosperity

Average Earnings per Job $42,744 $50,751

Per Capita Income $37,560 $43,884

Average Annual Wages - Services Related $33,605 $46,761

Average Annual Wages - Non-Services Related $56,264 $56,008

Average Annual Wages - Government Related $42,558 $47,076

Stress

Unemployment Rate (change 2000-2010) 3.6% 4.2%

Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.3%

Structur

e

Percent of Employment in Proprietors 18.5% 20.4%

Percent of Personal Income in Non-Labor 42.6% 34.4%

Percent of Services Related Jobs 69.3% 70.8%

Percent of Non-Services Related Jobs 12.8% 17.1%

Percent of Government Jobs 16.9% 12.2%   

Commuting (net residential adjustment share of personal income) -2.6% 0.0%   

Earnings

ACS 2006-2010

La

bo

r e

arn

ing

s

So

cia

l S

ec

uri

ty (

SS

)

Re

tire

me

nt

inc

om

e

Su

pp

lem

en

tal

Se

cu

rity

In

co

me

(S

SI)

Ca

sh

pu

bli

c a

ss

ista

nc

e

inc

om

e

Fo

od

Sta

mp

/SN

AP

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80% 74.2%

32.1%22.1%

4.2% 3.7% 7.6%

Percent of Households Receiving Earnings, by Source, 2010*

Employment

ACS 2006-2010

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Services, Percent of Total Private Employment, 2009

Housing Costs

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Housing Costs as a Percent of Household Income, 2010*

Monthly cost >30% of household income Gross rent >30% of household income

Employment

ACS 2006-2010

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Government Employment, Percent of Total Employment, 2009

Population

US Dept Commerce 2010

Births Deaths Net Migration (International & Domestic)0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Components of Population Change: 2000 - 2009

English as a Second Language

ACS 2006-2010

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1%

8.5%

Percent of Population that Speaks English Less Than ''Very Well'', 2010*

Education

ACS 2006-2010

No high school degree

High school graduate

Associates degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or pro-fessional

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Educational Attainment, 2010*

MFRC Northeast Landscape U.S.

Employment

ACS 2006-2010

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Employment by Major Industry Category

Services related Non-services related Government

Employment: Commuting

ACS 2006-2010

Carlton County,

MN

Cook County,

MN

Lake County,

MN

St. Louis County,

MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Place of Work, 2010*

Worked in county of residence

Worked outside county of residence

Carlto

nCook

Lake

St. Louis

MFRC N

orthea

stU.S

.0

10

20

30

Mean travel time to work (minutes)

Income

ACS 2006-2010

1996 2010 adjusted 20100

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Per Capita Personal Income ($)

MinnesotaCarltonCookLakeSt. Louis

Poverty

ACS 2006-2010

Carlton County, MN

Cook County, MN

Lake County, MN

St. Louis County, MN

MFRC Northeast

Landscape

U.S.0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

10.5%

8.9%

11.6%

15.1%

14.2%13.8%

7.3%

3.1%

9.3%8.8%

8.4%

10.1%

Individuals and Families Below Poverty, 2010*

People Below Poverty Families below poverty