Demographic Transition Model
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Demographic Transition Model
DTM
● Good indicator of what will happen to a society or country’s population.
● Based on three primary factors○ Crude Birth rate○ Crude Death rate○ Total population
● Think of it as a graph with lots of info we can zoom in on.
Stage 1What do you know about Hunter/Gatherer Societies?
Blue: Birth RateBlack: Death RateRed: Total Population
Stage 1
Hunting and Gathering Societies● Low total population with fluctuations in both
the birth and death rates.● Optimistic/Pessimistic● Food source are sporadic in hunting and
gathering societies, people have less children fear of starvation.
Stage 1
No countries are in stage 1 of the DTM today.
First Agricultural Revolution.
As humans progressed agriculturally, food sources changed. Instead of relying on animals or seasonal vegetation for food, people began experimenting with farming. This was known as the first Agricultural Revolution.
, “Consistency in food production” Stabilizes population
Agriculture: What changed?
Stage 2: Agricultural Societies ● Agricultural societies=Big population growth● Birth rates stay high ● Death rates decline sharply● More stable food, job specialization and
DIFFUSION of Modern medicine. (Medical revolution)
***Notice total population starts to take off in this stage.
Sub-Saharan Africa, GuatemalaYemen Afghanistan.
Blue: Birth RateBlack: Death RateRed: Total Population
Stage 2
● Lots of farming● Subsistence farmers????● “Traditional family structure is valued”
○ Men work in the fields women stay at home with kids
More kids = more farm workers. 10 or more kids. More kids=security
Sub-Saharan Africa, GuatemalaYemen Afghanistan.
The Birth of Farminghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhzQFIZuNFY
Review
● Draw AND label stages 1 and 2 of the DTM● List the characteristics of each stage
Stage 2
Crude Death rate falls. Why? Take a guess
How we die in one chart
Washington Post
Blue: Birth RateBlack: Death RateRed: Total Population
Stage 3: Industrial Societies/Moderate Growth
● Industrial Revolution=Mid-1700s In Europe● Mechanized system of farming. ● Improved the quality of life.
Stage 3
● Move from agricultural to industrial society ● Factories located in urban areas.
○ CBR is declining. Reliance on children for farm labor decreases. Children become more of a liability than an asset.
○ Education and female employment have negative effects on fertility.
Stage 3● Major improvements in
manufacturing goods and delivering them to the market.
● This brought wealth, which was used to make communities healthier places to live.
Stage 3
● Assembly line method of production takes form.
● Children don't work due to government restraints on child labor
● Women enter workforce=gaining career opportunities=motivate them to delay having children for several years.
Stage 3
● The economy changes○ More producers of goods○ Fewer farmers. ○ More people move to urban areas why?
Early 1900s much of Europe and the US entered stage 3
Stage 3
● Birth rate start out high from stage 2 but drops sharply
● Death rate continues to fall. Improvements in medicine and inoculations become more common. (antibiotics, vaccines)
Blue: Birth RateBlack: Death RateRed: Total Population
Stage 4: Post industrial ● Service-based economy● Birth rates and death rates become almost
equal = Zero population growth. ● CBR = CDR● NIR is approaching zero● Country moves away from its reliance on
industry to a more service-based economy.
Stage 4
● More people are involved in selling products than in production.
● Examples????
Stage 4: Post Industrial
Manufacturing/Industry● Construction● Creation of goods
● Cars built in a Ford plant
● Machines built
Service-based economy● Transportation● Sales (Retail)● Entertainment● Pest Control
● Google/Apple/Target
Stage 4: Post Industrial
Total population growth comes from “inevitable fill up of adults”
Stage 4● More women enter the labor force rather than remain at
home as full time homemakers. ● When most families lived on farms, employment and
child rearing were conducted at the same place● Urban societies = parents work in offices● Need for babysitters $$$$$$$
Stage 4
Change in lifestyle● Birth control (contraception)● Increased income● More income = more leisure time more
trips● entertainment and recreation not suitable
for young children.
Conclusion
Countries that go from stage 1 to stage 4 complete a cycle.
From little or no natural increase in stage 1, to little or no natural increase in stage 4● Examine the DTM What are the major
differences between stage 1 and 4?
Review
● Draw AND label stages 3 and 4 of the DTM● List the characteristics of each stage
Blue: Birth RateBlack: Death RateRed: Total Population
Stage 5: Decline
What begins to happens to population numbers when the CBR and the CDR both hit a low?
Stage 5: Decline
As population goes down, NIR actually starts to decline.
Until recently, no country was in this stage.
Now, there are several countries moving to a negative population growth.
Assignment! With your group of 4● Use the yarn to create a DTM● You must label each of the 4 stages of the DTM (use paper)● Provide 3 characteristics for each stage (write on sticky notes or paper)● Identify what color of yarn represents CBR, CDR, Total population● Have Ms. Leavitt check it off.
Key Issue 3 Vocab:Sex ratio, Maternal Mortality Rate, Population pyramid, Dependency ratio, Infant mortality rate,, epidemiology, Epidemiologic transition, Pandemic, Epidemic
When you are finished, begin to answer the questions on the board. You WILL turn these in.
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