The Demographic Transition Model Along with the Fertility Transition Theory And The Epidemiologic Transition.

The Demographic Transition Model

Along with the

Fertility Transition Theory

And

The Epidemiologic Transition

• Conceived by Frank Notestein 1945.

• Model of population change based upon effects of economic development.

• Based on the experience of the Western world, it was used for decades as a model to predict what should/would happen to developing countries eventually.

• All countries pass through four stages to a state of maturity.

http://www.uwec.edu/Academic/Geography/Ivogeler/w111/demmodel.htm

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde

Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

Moderate Growth in Chile

Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark

Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Stage 1: High steady birth rates and high but fluctuating death rates. Therefore, low natural increase rate. Two rates are approximately equal. The death rate fluctuates due to war and disease. Low income, agricultural society (agricultural revolution). Birth rates are high to off-set the high death rates.

Stage 2: Dramatic decline in death rates; high birth rates. Onset of industrialization and related health and medical advances. Birth rates are slow to respond, especially in the developing world. Key stage for growth.

• Population explosions occur when the birth rates are high and the death rates start to decline.

• Death rates began to drop due to better health care, better food supply, a decrease in wars, better sanitation/hygiene

• More people reached child bearing age.

• So while the death rate went down, the birth rate remained high, the gap (Natural Increase) between them increased.

• The wider and longer the gap continued the larger the population grew

• In a developed country (industrial revolution) the birth rates eventually started to slow down, it even spread out due to oversea empires and migration. Interesting that early migration was people from MDCs going to other MDCs (Britain, Germany, France to USA and Canada). Urbanization led to a decrease in birth rates as well.

• In a developing country the drop in birth rates took a long time. In some countries the birth rates still haven’t dropped.

• Children remained (remain) an economic asset, not a liability in the developing world.

Stage 3: Low death rates; declining birth rates, due to voluntary decisions to reduce family size aided by improved contraception. Related to improved standard of living. Natural increase rate falls.

Stage 4: Low steady death and birth rates. Low natural increase rate, similar to Stage 1. Most developed countries are in this stage. Low death rates; declining birth rates. Zero Population Growth. Death rates higher than birth rates – negative growth.

• So, in summary, the argument that is extracted from the demographic transition model is that since the developed countries underwent a dramatic change that resulted in lower rates of population growth, so should the developing nations, and their fertility rates would also fall.

“Development is the best form of birth control.” or is it???

However ….

This demographic transition has not occurred uniformly geographically.

Some areas are in Stage 4 and some areas are in Stage 2.

Times have changed since the developed world went through the demographic transition.

Therefore, can we use the dtm as a predictive tool? Can we assume that the passage from 3rd to 4th stage will happen over time?

From the evidence of modern experience, it seems “no”.

Conditions are different:

• Prospects for industrialization are questionable.

• Globalization is bringing ‘instant’ development to some countries.

• Reductions in death rates are a result in some countries of diffusion of technology and aid from the developed world.

• It’s one thing to introduce death control, another to introduce successful ways to reduce birth rates

• There is evidence to suggest that the fertility rates are declining as in the 3rd and 4th stage of the demographic transition model, but for very different reasons.

This is known as the Fertility Transition Theory.

Remember Fertility means the number of children that a women will have during her child bearing years (15 to 45 on average).

The Fertility Transition Theory

• Fertility is declining in the developing world at a rate which exceeds the rate of decline that was experienced in the developed world.

• It seems to be related directly to the extent to which modern contraceptives are employed.

• Education is not a prerequisite for using contraception.

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

© 2003 Population Reference Bureau

Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction

Average number of children per woman

6.7

6.0

6.67.0

5.5

6.9

6.35.8

8.2

3.5

7.0

5.1

3.33.0

2.4 2.3 2.4

4.3

Bangla-desh

Egypt India Indo-nesia

Iran Nepal Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1950-1955 2000-2005

• Information about contraception is now widespread due to mass media.

• Appeal for large families has fallen due to rising status of women (Empowerment).

• The Developing world is now experiencing population issues and agricultural problems that once did not exist. In the past there would be drought and famine, but it would be cyclical, today it is happening all the time.

• In summary, the Fertility Transition Theory asserts that while economic development can create a climate conducive to reductions in fertility, it is a change in cultural attitude about large families and a willingness to use contraception that is the key, along with the availability of the contraception and the empowerment of women.

• Development is not the best form of contraceptive; rather contraceptives are the best form of contraceptive.

• This is why the issue of women’s issues have become so important.

• But what are some of the obstacles to the more widespread use of contraception?

• Opposition to birth control and family planning.

• The manufacture and distribution and education about their use of contraceptives is expensive.

• Religion can block birth control programs. Catholic Church and some others.

• Low status of women: lack of political and economic rights; lack of access to education.

• Preference for male children in some areas.

• Fertility rates are lower in urban societies, and much of the developing world is still rural.

• Anti-U.S. governments see contraception as an American plot to control their country, culture and religion.

Percentage of Women using Family Planning

Family Planning Method

The Epidemiologic Transition

- The distinct causes of death in each stage of the Demographic Transition.

- Epidemiology is the branch of medical science concerned with the incidence, distribution and control of diseases that affect a large number of people – growing field ‘Medical Geography’

Stage 1: Stage of Pestilence and Famine.

- Infectious and parasitic diseases - principal causes of death. Malthus: “Natural checks”.

Eg. Black Plague.

Stage 2: Stage of Receding Pandemics

- A pandemic is a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and effects a very high proportion of the population.

- Improved sanitation, nutrition and medicine during the industrial revolution reduced the spread of infectious diseases. Less people die.

- Death rates begin to drop but not right away.

- Cholera was a big disease in stage 2, especially in the urban areas – remember urban is new at this stage.

Stage 3 and 4: Stage of degenerative and human created diseases.

- Infectious diseases decrease – vaccines take care of polio.

- Disorders due to aging increase – cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks) and cancer are important.

The emergence of a Stage 5:

- New strains of viruses and bacteria – the avian flu and SARS and of course AIDS. A come back of older viruses such as Malaria and Tuberculosis are also a characteristic of this stage.

- Improved travel around the globe is one cause, another is the resistance and adaptation of diseases to anti-biotics. Another cause is the increase in poverty and lack of sanitation in an increasing urban world.

- Fear of Terrorism using a disease as a weapon should be mentioned – Eg. Smallpox.

Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000

The tuberculosis death rate is a good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious-disease killers.

SARS Infections in China, 2003

China had 85 percent of the world's SARS cases in 2003. Within China, the infection was highly clustered in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong, and Beijing.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2002

The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

Distribution of Cholera victims and water pumps – excellent example of Spatial Analysis

The End!