Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.

Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future

Stéphan Vincent-LancrinOECD

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education

• Trends analysis

– Demography– Technology– Globalisation – Academic research– Labour market

• Futures scenarios

Outline

• Why does demography matter?

• What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes?

• What are the qualitative challenges?

• What will it take to address them?

Why does demography matter?

Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments

Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100)

Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)

Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100)

Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100)

Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under

scenario 2 (GDP points)

Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices)

Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population

Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-44 population

Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments

Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25 year olds in the United States

Source: US Censur Bureau

Social inequity over time (father’s education)

Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)

Growth in the number of foreign students (2000-2006, 2000=100)

Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women

Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group

No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?

Addressing the quality access challenges

On your memory stick

Higher Education 2030

– Volume 1: Demography

Forthcoming:– Volume 2: Technology– Volume 3: Globalisation– Volume 4: Scenarios

THANK YOU

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www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures