DEMISTIFYING CCA-1

DemystifyingDRR-Climate Change Adaption  

Bibhuti Bhusan Gadnayak

State DRR CoordinatorUNICEF, Assam

Presented at the NE DRR & CCA Conclave & Convention of IAG (DisCon), Guwahati, Assam on 23 rd January 2017

ContentsDisaster Risk ReductionAspects of DRRDRR MechanismAspects of DRRWhat is CCMajor projection of CCImpact of CCHow CC will affect key sectors What is CCAIntegrating DRR-CCA

Content

Disaster Risk ReductionThere is no such thing as a 'natural' disaster, only natural hazards.

• DRR aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like; earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, through an ethic of prevention.

• DRR is the concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through

• systematic efforts to analyze and reduce the causal factors of disasters • reducing exposure to hazards, • lessening vulnerability of people and property, • wise management of land and the environment, and improving preparedness for

adverse events

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DRR………?:

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Aspects of DRR:

Disaster Mitigation: Structural and non-structural measures

Early warning: The provision of timely information enabling people to take steps to reduce the impact of hazards.

Disaster Preparedness Recovery: assessing levels of future risk when planning housing projects in the aftermath of a disaster.

Support to livelihood: home gardening can improve nutrition and increase reserves in the time of drought.

DRR MechanismThe main mechanisms for DRR are:

Avoid hazards: prevention of damage through the avoidance of hazard zones Mitigate risks: Mitigate the effects of events by reducing magnitude and probability of damage Respond to damage: Reduce adverse effects of events through timely and effective response Transfer risks: Distribute risks to a large group of individuals and use means for recovery

The first two mechanisms are preventive measures, the second two preparedness measures.  

The various mechanisms to reduce risks: prevention (avoid hazards and hazardous zones); mitigation (reduce effects of hazard or reduce vulnerability of element at risk); response (respond to damage); recovery (transfer risks for rehabilitation and reconstruction). The reduction of risks depends on the mix of measures. Residual risks have to be carried by the individual.

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DRR initiatives in India  DRR

Legal framework Disaster Management Act 2005 Institutions NDMA & MHAPolicy and Plans National Disaster Management Policy 2009Resources Budget allocated under the 5 year Plans.Integration into development plans

10th Five year plan (2001-2006) explicitly highlighted the needs and plans for risk reduction and mitigation.

DM Plan

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Towards a post 2015 DRR Framework

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SFw for DRR 2015-30 Taking into account the experience gained through the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-15, and in pursuance of the expected outcome and goal, there is a need for focused action within and across sectors by States at local, national, regional and global levels in the following 4 priority areas:

4 Priorities for action

SFDRR 7 global targets to achieve next 15 years

What is Climate Change• Climate Change means significant difference in weather pattern over an extended period of time

• Scientific consensus links current climate change primarily; • emissions of carbon dioxide and other • greenhouse gases from human activity, such as;

• the burning of fossil fuels,• loss of forests and unsustainable production and • consumption in the industrialized world

The effects include higher global temperatures, • an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and• related natural disasters, • severe impacts to the sustainability of ecosystems.

Alaska's Columbia Glacier recedes rapidly

One of the most dramatic ways we're transforming the planet is through global warming. And a great place to see its effects is through the melting of glaciers and ice sheets around the world.

The images above show the Columbia Glacier in Alaska, which flows directly into the sea. The glacier had stayed more or less fixed in place between its discovery in 1794 and 1980, but then suddenly began shrinking. Between 1986 and 2014, its nose had retreated 12 miles north, making it one of the fastest-receding glaciers in the world.

Alaska's Columbia Glacier, seen on July 28, 1986 and July 2, 2014. (NASA, Images of Change)

Source: http://www.vox.com/2015/4/7/8352381/anthropocene-NASA-images

1986

2014

Major projections of CCThe IPCC has examined the published results from many different models and on the basis of the evidence has estimated that by 2100

• The global average surface warming (surface air temperature change), will increase by 1.1 - 6.4 °C.• The sea level will rise between 18 and 59 cm.•• The oceans will become more acidic.• It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will

continue to become more frequent.• It is very likely that there will be more precipitation at higher latitudes and it is likely that

there will be less precipitation in most subtropical land areas.• It is likely that tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense,

with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with on-going increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.

Issue Impacts of Climate ChangeNatural resources:food, water, fuel & land 

• Drought and/or flooding from temperature changes and erratic weather• Decreased soil fertility• Decreased crop yields or crop failure• Resource scarcity• Shortage of clean, potable water

Natural disasters  

• Warming oceans• Changing weather patterns/seasons• Erratic and more intense weather events

Health  

• Increase in infectious, water-borne or vector-borne diseases, e.g., malaria, due to increased temperatures and intensified storms• Heat-related illness• Malnutrition• Increased air pollution, allergies and asthma• Mental disorders such as anxiety and depression

Urbanization  

• Rural-to-urban migration increases due to environmental degradation, reduced productivity and conflict over resources• Informal shelters and communities expand

Migration &displacement

• Disaster events can lead to displacement,19 temporary and permanent, internal and international• Environmental degradation and competition for resources prompts women and men to move• Forced migration due to regional vulnerability possible

H/H composition • Loss of/change in family composition due to migration/displacement and/or fatalities from natural disastersConflict & violence 

• Competition over limited resources can trigger conflict or displacement• Shortages in regular rainfall and overall scarcity of natural resources can increase civil war by 50 per cent• Increased anxiety and distress over livelihood insecurity

Impact of CC

Source: Climate Change, Connections, UNFPA

How climate change will affect key sectorsIt will affect the major sectors like; Water, Food, Industry, settlement and society, Health

Water: Drought-affected areas will likely become more widely distributed. Heavier precipitation events are very likely to increase in frequency leading to higher flood risks.

Food: increases in temperature and the frequency of droughts and floods are likely to affect crop production negatively, which could increase the number of people at risk from hunger and increased levels of displacement and migration.

Industry, settlement and society: The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those located in coastal areas and river flood plains, and those whose economies are closely linked with climate sensitive resources. This applies particularly to locations already prone to extreme weather events, and especially areas undergoing rapid urbanization. Where extreme weather events become more intense or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase.

Health: The projected changes in climate are likely to alter the health status of millions of people, including through increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts. Increased malnutrition, diarrhoeal disease and malaria in some areas will increase vulnerability to extreme public health and development goals will be threatened by longer term damage to health systems from [email protected]

What is CC Adaption

CCA is defined by UNFCCC “as adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects that moderate harm and exploit beneficial opportunities.

This can include;

(a) adapting development to gradual changes in average temperature, sea level and precipitation; and

(b) reducing and managing the risks associated with more frequent, severe and unpredictable extreme weather events” (UNISDR, 2010)

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CC initiatives in India  CC

Legal framework NAPCCInstitutions Ministry of Forest & Env.Policy and Plans The CC plans are preparedResourcesIntegration into development plans

Under the SAPCC at the state level

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Autonomous Adaptation-Adaptive Capacity

Planned Adaptation

= f(Technologies, Investment..)

Externalities

Autonomous Resilience- Coping

Preparedness= f(Technologies, Investment..)

Externalities

Climate Change Adaptation Disaster Risk Reduction

ClimateProofing

VulnerabilityReduction

DRR-CCA

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DRR - CCA Integration

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)- Early Warning Systems (EWS), HVR Assessment/Monitoring,

Mitigation & Preparedness Strategies, Response Strategies ..

• Human Health• Food, Water &

Environment Security• Energy

• Agriculture & forestry • Trade & tourism • Industry, Mining etc• Land use, settlements

Institutional Networking

Integration of Technologies

•Targeting Climate Related Disaster Risks•Designing Risk Reduction Strategies•Integrating Climate, Weather & EWS Information in Decision Making..

Areas of Convergence-Coastal Zone Management-Watershed Development -Land Use Planning -Settlements, Physical and Social Infrastructure Planning-Floodplain Management..

Areas of Divergence -Diverse institutional structure-Disconnected Policies, Planning and Programmes-Lack of inter-sectoralcommunication & dialogues-Lack of relevant information-Ad-hoc Short term Approaches

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA)

Priority Areas

DRR and CCA integration

CC

Clip on climate change

VIDEO ON CC-INDIA.mp4

1. http://www.unisdr.org/who-we-are/what-is-drr2. Gadanayak, BB and Routray, JK (2010), A path to Disaster resilient Communities, Lambert Academic Publishing, Germany3. http://www.sdc-drr.net/what4. http://www.sdc-drr.net/disasters_rise5.Sendai Frame Work for DRR 2015-20306.Political declaration WCDRR7. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Summary for Policymakers: http://195.70.10.65/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf.8. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report: http://195.70.10.65/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm.9. http://www.vox.com/2015/4/7/8352381/anthropocene-NASA-images10. Climate Change, Connections, UNFPA11. Social Protection and Climate Resilience, Report from an international workshop A ddis Ababa March 14–17, 2011, WB

References:

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Thank you