Deficits and Economic Recovery (Full)

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 1

Deficits and Economic RecoveryA research study on investment and deficit reduction

April 8, 2023


This presentation is based primarily on a national survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, Citizen Opinion, and Campaign for America’s Future. The survey was of 1,000 2008 voters (980 landline, 120 cell phone weighted; 853 landline, 147 cell phone unweighted) and conducted July 26-29, 2010. Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points.

All data shown reflects results from 866 likely 2010 voters (910 unweighted; margin of error of 3.2 percentage points) unless otherwise noted.

Methodology


Unmarried Women 18-29 Year Olds

African Americans Latinos

24.7% 21.3%

11.8% 9.5%

Other Race

5.3%

Source: Census Bureau, November 2008 CPS

Demographic Composition of the Rising American Electorate (RAE)

Voting Eligible Population


4852

RAE

Non-RAE

New base voters dominate drop-off electorate

Voting Population

*Note: Data for voting population from U.S. Census Bureau CPS report. Data for 2010 likely voters and drop-off voters from national survey conducted July 26-29, 2010 among 866 likely voters and 134 drop-off voters.

2010 Drop-Off Voters2010 Likely Voters

58

42

RAENon-RAE

30

70

RAENon-RAE


Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 5 |

Economic future and deficits


3

9

47

13

8

8

12

0 25 50

Health care

The federal budget deficit

Illegal immigration

The economy/jobs

Energy/Environment/Gulf oil spill

Economy more than deficits most salient issue of the day

Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Other

CNN/ORC, July 21, 2010: Which of the following is the most important issue facing the country today?CBS, July 12, 2010: What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

5

4

38

5

7

6

31

0 25 50

CNN/ORC CBS News


45

15

43

13

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

% warm (51-100 degrees) % very warm (76-100 degrees)

%cool (0-49 degrees) % very cool (0-25 degrees)

Support for action: Investment and deficit reduction equal imperativesNow, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

20

61

19

60

A plan to dramatically reduce the deficit

over the next five years

A plan to invest in new industries and rebuild

the country over the next five years



Jobs and deficits: progressive priorities clear


32

4945

62

3444

2821

Favor funding Oppose funding Favor funding Oppose funding

Oppose increased funding strongly

Favor increased funding strongly

Short term: help now with layoffs and service cuts

+28+4

*Note: The full question with context was asked of one-half the sample, while the section that is not underlined/in bold was asked of the other half of the sample for comparison.

Clean Read With Context

Over the past year, 45 states have had to layoff teachers, police, fire fighters and other employees due to the recession. Next year, states will face continued revenue shortfalls as a result of the weak economy, with some 300,000 teachers and other education workers potentially facing layoffs. Would you favor or oppose the federal government providing more funding to the states to prevent further service cuts and layoffs?

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 10

2320

40

25

63

29

68

28

40

57 57

38

4147

35

16

Favorfunding

Opposefunding

Favorfunding

Opposefunding

Favorfunding

Opposefunding

Favorfunding

Opposefunding

Oppose increased funding strongly

Favor increased funding strongly

Non-RAE heavily swayed by context; RAE already supportive

+17+34

*Note: The full question with context was asked of one-half the sample, while the section that is not underlined/in bold was asked of the other half of the sample for comparison. RAE corresponds to the Rising American Electorate delineated previously.

RAE Non-RAE

Over the past year, 45 states have had to layoff teachers, police, fire fighters and other employees due to the recession. Next year, states will face continued revenue shortfalls as a result of the weak economy, with some 300,000 teachers and other education workers potentially facing layoffs. Would you favor or oppose the federal government providing more funding to the states to prevent further service cuts and layoffs?

+40 +19

Clean Read With Context Clean Read With Context

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 11

50

68

84

5661

18

28

15

34 3549

73

58

2216 10

Protectservices

Cut services Protectservices



Cut services

First statement strongly Second statement strongly

Total RepublicansDemocrats Independents

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

Long term: protect Medicare and Social Security

First Statement: The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security or Medicare.

Second Statement: The federal deficit is such a national problem that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

+40 +69 +26+22

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 12

65

68 6472

13

28 3124

5158

16 20

Protect services Cut services Protect services Cut services Protect services Cut services


Total 18-49


Young nearly as concerned as elderly about entitlement cuts

First Statement: The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security or Medicare.

Second Statement: The federal deficit is such a national problem that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

+40 +33 +48

50 and Older

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 13

39

54

77

52

33

18

31

13

32

49

18

64

41

2617

9

Tax wealthy Sales tax Tax wealthy Sales tax Tax wealthy Sales tax Tax wealthy Sales tax




Independents, Democrats for progressive tax over national sales tax

First Statement: With inequality at its most extreme since the Great Depression, we should raise new revenue with higher taxes on the wealthy, not with a national sales tax that hits working people harder.

Second Statement: In order to raise new revenue to address the deficit, we should institute a national sales tax, rather than increase income taxes on the highest income earners because that hits those able to save and invest.

+23 +64 +16+20

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 14


Proposals to address deficit

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 15

51

52

45

44

30

36

29

22

22

17

25

13

24

42

36

46

42

50

25

33

34

36

43

47

54

56

62

63

6432

25

18

16

13

41

38

28

31

49

46

60

62

65

65

75 50 25 0 25 50 75

Strongly oppose Strongly favor

Deficits: Oppose cutting Social Security, support progressive taxesNow I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.

Let Bush tax cuts for those making over 250k expire

Eliminate tax breaks and subsidies for corporations

Create a tax on excessive Wall Street bank profits

Lift Social Security payroll tax cap on incomes higher than 107k

Eliminate tax breaks for corporations that outsource jobs

Create half-cent tax on stock transactions

Create carbon tax for utilities and manufacturing

Increase Medicare age from 65 to 67

Create a 3 percent federal sales tax

Raise retirement age for Social Security to 70

Eliminate Medicare and create 11k annual voucher

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 16

43

32

12

34

27

7

16

13

18

27

25

22

41

42

38

39

51

41

52

57

36

53

73

42

55

87

59

66

65

61

63

69

33

19

27

63

66

29

61

45

19

46

37

12

28

34

25

29

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats


Democrats and independents unified on progressive approaches





Now I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 17

47

50

56

52

47

56

62

47

29

37

43

52

14

17

24

18

21

9

29

26

20

30

40

28

24

35

43

43

40

25

62

58

61

54

52

58

12

10

12

14

11

14

66

69

72

71

69

67

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats


Majorities reject entitlement cuts

Eliminate Medicare and create11k annual voucher

Raise retirement age forSocial Security to 70



Now I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 18

Current standing of economic indicators


April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 19

302528 31 28 25 23 23

2822 23 21

1510

28

43 4135 36

29

55

636764 62 63 66 66

71

63

7268

7378

61

5046

50

58 5864

3137 37

22

3928

33

62

85

55

69

5762

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Right direction Wrong track

Direction of the country: rise in wrong track for three straight months

Net Difference

Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

-18

20062006ElectionElection

Iraq surgeIraq surge20062006

20102010

2008 2008 ElectionElection

Financial Financial CrisisCrisis

-33 -42-36 -31 -35 -41 -43 -48 -47 -35 -50 -45 -52 -63 -75 -33 -11-3 -9 -18

20082008

Stimulus Stimulus Package Package PassesPasses

-22

20092009

-23 -34-24 -31

*Note: From full sample of 2008 voters, based on research for Citizen Opinion.

-40

Health Care Health Care Reform PassesReform Passes

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 20

13 13

2320 21

16

63 6368

191921171616151513

898912

60

7072

6464616566666567

71

7879797977

Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10

Warm Cool

Passage of Passage of Recovery ActRecovery Act

First net job First net job growth: 14,000 growth: 14,000

New JobsNew Jobs

208,000 208,000 New JobsNew Jobs


2008 2008 ElectionElection

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects full sample.

National economic indicator: cool ratings on the rise

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. The state of the economy…

Net Difference

-65 -71 -70 -70 -58 -50 -50 -48-40 -45 -59-45 -37-57-70 -50-52 -43 -42 -52



April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 21

34

25 26 2628

2720

2225

35

3640 38

4543

40

35

3532

33 27

3129

37

Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10

At bottom Already improving Will get worse

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects full sample.

Real economic indicator: fewer believe economy improving

Now, thinking about the nation’s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse?

Total Seen Worst: 60

39,000 New 39,000 New JobsJobs


New JobsNew Jobs208,000 208,000

New JobsNew Jobs





April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 22

3639

37 3841

22

2724

2628

4043

37

4239

44

38

28

22

1916

1916

13

Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10

Reduced wages or hours Lost job

Lost health insurance Fallen behind on mortgage

Real economic indicators: negative indicators rise, jump in foreclosures

I'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.



New JobsNew Jobs

208,000 208,000 New JobsNew Jobs 290,000 290,000

New JobsNew Jobs

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact of an impact on someone in their family. Data reflects full sample.


83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs 71,000 71,000

New JobsNew Jobs

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 23

39

44

3740

2730 30

32 31 30

1719

23

48

40

46

32

42

36

44

38

16

17

22




Recession real indicators for white non-collegeI'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.


New JobsNew Jobs

230,000 230,000 New JobsNew Jobs 290,000 290,000


New JobsNew Jobs

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact of an impact on someone in their family. Data reflects full sample.


83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs 71,000 71,000

New JobsNew Jobs

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 24

40

46

2730 30

28

21

16

26

46

40

44

39

4343

38

43

4042

26 27

15

1720




Recession real indicators: unmarried women, minority and youngI'm going to read you a list of economic experiences some people have recently had. For each one, please tell me if you have directly experienced this in the last year, if your family has directly experienced this in the last year, or if someone you know well, like a friend, neighbor or co-worker, has experienced this or if no one you know well has experienced it.


New JobsNew Jobs

208,000 208,000 New JobsNew Jobs 290,000 290,000

New JobsNew Jobs39,000 39,000 New JobsNew Jobs

*Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys prior to March 2010. Based on research for Citizen Opinion. Data reflects the total of those who have felt a personal impact of an impact on someone in their family. The new American electorate refers to unmarried women, respondents under the age of 30, and minorities. Data reflects full sample.


83,000 83,000 New JobsNew Jobs 71,000 71,000

New JobsNew Jobs

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 25


Jobs and deficits

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 26

25

42

68

36

2144

51

29

55

73

32

55

1421

41

59

Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts




Deficit higher priority than investment (without description)

First Statement: Reducing the deficit is important to our future, but even more important is new investment to foster new skills and industries.

Second Statement: Reducing the deficit is so important to our future that we must proceed now to make bold cuts in spending.

+9 +39 +52+19

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 27

30

52

71

4740

40

42

26

4854

37

55

2717

33

45

Both Cuts Both Cuts Both Cuts Both Cuts




Deficit-investment combined over just spending cuts

First Statement: Investing to foster new skills and industries is so important to our future we must BOTH make key investments and reduce the deficit over time.


+10 +45 +14+1

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 28

42

52 4858

30

42 4637

3437 33 36

Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts


Total Non College Total College


More educated favor dual approach to recovery than just deficit focus



+10 +2 +21

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 29

15

3341

3126

31

47 44 4752

14

2619

3731

27

Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower




First Statement: Moving now to reduce the deficit will mean higher unemployment.

Second Statement: Moving now to reduce the deficit will mean lower unemployment.

+14 +3 +26+16

Deficit reduction impacts employment

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 30


Investment as important as debt to future

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 31

8

32

47

36

28

30

5

0 25 50

President Obama’s economic recovery or stimulus plan

The bailouts of the big banks and auto industry

Lobbyists and special interests puttingunneeded spending in the budget

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

The economic recession that cut tax revenue and required support for the unemployed

What caused debt: wars and bailouts

The Bush tax cuts for corporationsand top earners

The cost of the Medicare PrescriptionDrug benefit

Now I’d like to read you a list of things that some people say have caused the national deficit to grow over the past several years. After I read this list, please tell me which TWO, in your opinion, are most responsible for the federal deficit growing significantly over the past several years.

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 32

16

26

34

29

21

25

12

0 25

When you think about a large federal deficit, which TWO of the following consequences do you worry about the most?

The next generation being left to pay the bills

Inability of Social Security to payfuture benefits

Cutbacks of key government serviceslike teachers, building and maintaininghighways, and transportation

An economy weighed down by debtthat can’t grow and create jobs

China will be stronger than US

Why debt a problem? Economy and Social Security

A lack of credit for the consumers and businesses that can’t borrow and invest

Interest payments in the budget crowding out other spending

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 33

37

48

74

44

2638

45

22

49

67

38

59

1718

35

50

Investment Cut services Investment Cut services Investment Cut services Investment Cut services




For economy: investment at parity with major cuts

First Statement: While we need a plan for deficit reduction, our highest priority should be investment and tax credits for education, science and technology, and renewable energy in order to build a new foundation for economic growth that raises the revenue to reduce the deficit in the long-run.

Second Statement: We need to make major cuts in the deficit our highest priority because by cutting our debt, American companies and the U.S. economy will be stronger and more competitive.

+3 +52 +41+5

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 34

32

48

82

38

21

47

47

14

55

74

14

75

41

65

40

10

Invest Cut Invest Cut Invest Cut Invest Cut




Country on track: Investment equal to cutting spending and taxes

First Statement: To get our country back on track, we must invest in education, science, technology, and in new industries like renewable energy that will create new jobs, while also working to reduce the federal deficit each year.

Second Statement: To get our country back on track, we must cut the federal deficit by cutting spending and taxes so businesses can prosper and the private sector can start creating jobs.

+1 +68 +53+17

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 35

30

48

77

38

2751

48

19

6068

18

64

38

51

37

12

Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts




On future: Investment equal to deficit reduction

First Statement: We should be making investments vital to our future by spending on education and training, research and development, and a modern infrastructure for the 21st century.

Second Statement: We need to catch up with a changing world, but government spending is out of control and we need to reduce the deficit boldly so that America can compete in a very challenging 21st century.

Tied +58 +41+22

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 36

26

46

68

383144

50

26

5867

15

53

32

52

38

21

Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts Invest/Cuts Cuts




No more support for investment if coupled with deficit reduction

First Statement: We need to reduce deficits over time, while making investments vital to our future by spending on education, training, research, and a modern infrastructure for the 21st century.


+4 +42 +36+20

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 37


Big narratives about economic future

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 38

29

51

52

54

60

32

30

29

0 25 50 75

Much more positive

Now I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?

When the economy crashed, banks and consumers held on for dear life – and only the government could get the economy moving… We need to act now to put people to work… We need government investment in jobs, education and infrastructure in the short term while being mindful of reducing the deficit over the long-term

Note: See full statements text on the next two slides.

Summary: Investment framework

We have a budget deficit, but the fact is we also have a massive publicinvestment deficit… we need to rebuild the infrastructure that is vital to our economy. This will create jobs… and generate revenues that can help pay down the budget deficit.

A recovery to the old economy isn’t possible or desirable… We have to build a new economy on a new foundation, by investing in education and training in 21st century infrastructure… the new green industrial revolution, and balancing our trade so we make products and create jobs in America.

Reducing the deficit is very important to our future economy and preserving critical public benefits… Restore the higher tax rates for those earning over 250 thousand dollars a year, and for excessive CEO bonuses, institute a small transaction tax on stock trades, and wipe out lobbyist-created special corporate subsidies...

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 39

We have a budget deficit, but the fact is we also have a massive public investment deficit – in roads, sewers, schools, trains, renewable energy, and other basic parts of our communities. To be competitive, we need to rebuild the infrastructure that is vital to our economy. This will create jobs, help business compete, improve our communities and generate revenues to help pay down the budget deficit.

Investment deficit

30

60

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

Strongest investment messages: modernizing infrastructureNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?

32

54

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

A recovery to the old economy isn’t possible or desirable. That economy was based on personal debt, the housing bubble, trade deficits, stagnant wages, and a growing gap between CEOs and the rich, and everyone else. We have to build an economy on a new foundation, by investing in education and training in 21st century infrastructure, capturing a lead role in the new green industrial revolution, and balancing our trade so we make products and create jobs in America.

New foundation

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 40

When the economy crashed, banks and business and consumers held on for dear life – and only the government could get the economy moving, just as FDR had done in the Great Depression. And it is still true, with unemployment over 9 percent. We need to act now to put people to work and help those who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own. We need government investment in jobs, education, and infrastructure in the short-term, while being mindful of reducing the deficit over the long-term.

FDR and the Great Depression

Progressive taxes, historical context also earn majority positive feelingsNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?

29

51

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

Reducing the deficit is very important to our future economy and preserving critical public benefits for ordinary people, like teachers and police, Social Security and Medicare. We can reduce the deficit by cleaning up what got us in this mess. Restore the higher tax rates for those earning over 250 thousand dollars a year and for excessive CEO bonuses, institute a small transaction tax on stock trades, and wipe out the lobbyist-created special corporate interest subsidies. That is the right way for us.

Progressive deficit reduction

29

52

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 41

28

22

14

26

54

20

19

51

26

44

79

36

44

75

35

47

79

49

51

79

48

50

16

9

0 25 50 75

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Much more positive


FDR and the Great Depression

Democrats energized by investment narrative

Investment deficit

New foundation

Progressive deficit reduction

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 42

24

32

47

53

54

31

37

12

0 25 50 75

Much more positive

Now I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about deficits, government spending, and the economy. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?

China owns more of our debt than anyone and our finances risk being overextended. We need to aggressively pay down the debt by spending less on government programs across the board, even on popular programs such as Social Security.

Note: See full statements text on the next two slides.

Deficit narratives

The budget deficit has ballooned in the last several years because of bailouts… and a large government stimulus program. If we do not begin to bring the deficit down by a large amount… we risk serious financial instability like in California and Greece.

We should cut spending across the board except for the military. We should also sustain the Bush tax cuts and cut taxes on businesses. That will stimulate private business to create the new jobs that will generate the revenue to pay for the tax cuts.

… The best way to revive the economy is to reduce government spending, cut taxes and leave the private sector to create jobs. Government should have as small a role as possible in our economy, so we need to spend less on programs to revive the economy.

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 43

We cannot grow the economy by growing government. The best way to revive the economy is to reduce government spending, cut taxes and leave the private sector to create jobs. Government should have as small as role as possible in our economy, so we need to spend less on programs to revive the economy.

Reduce government’s role

We cannot afford more government giveaways to special interests. The budget deficit has ballooned in the last several years because of bailouts for banks and auto companies and a large government stimulus program. If we do not begin to bring the deficit down by a large amount quickly, we risk serious financial instability like in California and Greece.

Blame bailouts

37

54

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

Top deficit messages: reducing government role, blame bailoutsNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?

31

53

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 44

The exploding federal budget deficit is making the U.S. lag in this global economy. China owns more of our debt than anyone and our finances are at risk from being so overextended. We need to aggressively pay down our debt by spending less on government programs across the board, even on popular programs such as Social Security.

Cut government programs

We can’t afford growing federal deficits. So we should cut spending across the board except for the military. We should also sustain the Bush tax cuts and cut taxes on businesses. That will stimulate private business to create the new jobs that will generate the revenue to pay for the tax cuts.

Tax cuts

24

47

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

Tax cuts, across-the-board spending cuts earn lowest ratingsNow I’m going to read you some things a leader is saying about government investment, the economy and deficits. Please tell me if each of this leader’s statements makes you much more positive, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, no more positive, or more negative about this leader?

12

32

Total morepositive

Much morepositive

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 45

14

24

46

40

11

58

44

12

41

36

19

66

48

28

68

62

32

75

60

30

10

5

41

18

0 25 50 75

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Much more positiveBar 4Bar 5Bar 6


Cut governmentprograms

Republican and independents more intense with spending frames

Reduce government’srole

Blame bailouts

Tax cuts

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 46


Engaging on investment shifts support

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 47

41

42

5147 48

3235

38

Invest Cuts Invest Cuts


Voters shift toward investment as strategy for recovery

+1+9




Initial Follow-up

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 48

25

14 15

6876

36 36

21 2444

62

2919

55 55

73

27

5955 59

45

2111

73

Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts Invest Cuts


Democrats Independents


Shift entirely driven by movement among Democrats

Net Shift: +18 Net Shift: +3Net Shift: 0

Republicans



April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 49

33

52

4249 48

3637 37

Both Cuts Both Cuts


But combined approach doesn’t gain after messaging

+1+10



Initial Follow-up


April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 50


The politics of investment

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 51

58

4138

55

31

49

28

43



RAE Non-RAE


RAE favors investment in a modern economy of the 21st century

First Statement: We should be making investments vital to our future by spending on education and training, research and development, and a modern infrastructure for the 21st century.


+20 +14

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 52

58

4138

53

50

35

47

30



RAE Non-RAE


RAE favors investment in science, technology and renewable energy

+12

First Statement: To get our country back on track, we must invest in education, science, technology, and in new industries like renewable energy that will create new jobs, while also working to reduce the federal deficit each year.

Second Statement: To get our country back on track, we must cut the federal deficit by cutting spending and taxes so businesses can prosper and the private sector can start creating jobs.

+20

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 53

4839

4755

3630

45

35



RAE Non-RAE


RAE split on investment versus bold spending cuts



+1 +16

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 54

16

68

28

70

28

5862

18

No Cuts Cuts No Cuts Cuts


Battleground: Social Security and Medicare untouchable

+42+40

First Statement: The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security and Medicare.

Second Statement: The federal deficit is such a national problem that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare spending.


Total Vulnerable Dem. *Note: The ‘Vulnerable Dem’ sample is of voters from districts deemed ‘vulnerable’ in the congressional battleground that are held by Democratic incumbents.

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 55

55

60

45

48

38

42

28

19

25

16

24

16

46

36

42

38

53

22

21

31

30

39

40

55

56

59

65

67

62

53

55

39

35

35

30

31

7

19

12

15

1270

76

65

100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100


Battleground: Deficit priorities match likely votersNow I'd like to read you a list of proposals to help close the federal budget deficit. After I read each item, please tell me whether you FAVOR or OPPOSE that proposal.


Eliminate tax breaks and subsidies for corporations




Create half-cent tax on stock transactions

Create carbon tax for utilities and manufacturing



Raise retirement age for Social Security to 70

Eliminate Medicare and create 11k annual voucher

April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 56

41

42

51

4147

3132

39



Battleground: slight preference for spending cuts

+9

Vulnerable Dem.* Note: The ‘Vulnerable Dem’ sample is of voters from districts deemed ‘vulnerable’ in the congressional battleground that are held by Democratic incumbents.

Total

+6




April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 57

33

52

42 42

51

28

37 38

Both Cuts Both Cuts


Battleground: bold cuts are preferred

+10

Vulnerable Dem.* Note: The ‘Vulnerable Dem’ sample is of voters from districts deemed ‘vulnerable’ in the congressional battleground that are held by Democratic incumbents.

Total

+9




April 8, 2023April 8, 2023 | Page 58


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