Dec. 7th, 2005 1 New York State’s High School Demographics Considerations for Change SUNY Directors Meeting December 7, 2005 Herkimer County Community College Renée M. Overdyke Director of Enrollment Analysis Office of Enrollment Management SUNY System Administration
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Dec. 7th, 20051 New York State’s High School Demographics Considerations for Change SUNY Directors Meeting December 7, 2005 Herkimer County Community College.
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Dec. 7th, 2005 1
New York State’s High School Demographics
Considerations for Change
SUNY Directors MeetingDecember 7, 2005
Herkimer County Community College
Renée M. Overdyke Director of Enrollment Analysis
Office of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration
Dec. 7th, 2005 2
NYS High School DemographicsConsiderations for Change
NYS High School Graduate Projections
Regional Distributions
Racial/Ethnic Trends and Distributions
Future Analyses
Dec. 7th, 2005 3
NYS High School Projection M E T H O D O L O G Y
Originally developed by Dr. Glenwood Rowse, Coordinator, Office of Research and Information Systems NYSED.
Cohort Survival Method based on prior year grade-to-grade attrition (or growth) using at least four years of K-12 historical data.
Designed as a hybrid model that finds the best value, or “Grade Progression Rate” (GPR) to project future cohorts.
The model selects the best of 3 different ways of computing the GPR: (1.) basic average, (2.) weighted average and (3.) the “trend” or linear regression (R2) of the most recent years.
The level of analysis is the county; county #’s & ratios are generally quite stable making this a reliable level of detail to work from.
Important to remember any projection figures will vary as new data becomes available.
Accordingly, the first several projected years are likely to be more accurate, with the margin of error increasing the further out we project.
Data Source: The NYSED Institutional Master File
Dec. 7th, 2005 4
NYS High School GraduatesActual & Projected / Public & Non-public
NYC – 5 BOROUGHS {Cohort size ranks 1st of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 96,411 100%
White 22,835 23.7%
Hispanic 33,302 34.5%
Asian/PI 10,572 11.0%
Black 29,263 30.4%
Native US 439 0.5%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:
2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
QUEENSMANHATTAN.
NYC – 5 Boroughs
STATEN IS.
BRONX
BROOKLYN
Dec. 7th, 2005 17
A Future Glimpse: Regional Cohort Comparisons
LONG ISLAND {Cohort size ranks 2nd of the 8 Regents Regions.}
Total 41,169 100%
White 29,079 70.6%
Hispanic 5,153 12.5%
Asian/PI 2,044 5.0%
Black 4,824 11.7%
Native US 69 0.2%
2004 6th Grade CohortProjected % Change HS Grads:
2004 vs. 2010
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
-21% or less-11% to -20%-1% to -10%
+1% to +10%+11% to +20%+21% or more
SUFFOLK
NASSAU
Dec. 7th, 2005 18
Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences
Overall, Upstate NY’s general population grew by a mere 1.1 percent in the 1990’s, slower than the growth rate of every state but West Virginia and North Dakota.
Within Upstate NY, only two regions grew in the 1990’s, the Hudson Valley region which extends north of NYC through Albany and Saratoga.
Upstate NY’s racial/ethnic minority population is small and unevenly distributed among its metropolitan areas & segregated within them.
Overall, more people moved out of Upstate NY than moved in during the 1990’s; 1.7 million migrating out & 1.3 million coming in.
Nearly 30 percent of new residents in Upstate NY in the 1990s were prisoners.
Source: Brookings Institute/US Census
Dec. 7th, 2005 19
Notes of InterestUpstate/Downstate Divergences
NYC’s general population grew considerably during the 1990’s, with a record 8 million residents in 2000.
Neighborhoods throughout the city grew, especially the outer boroughs and surrounding areas.
NYC owes it’s population growth and unrivaled diversity to new arrivals from abroad. Whites, blacks and Hispanic’s each make up at least a quarter of the city’s population.
The city added nearly 800,000 residents from abroad. Without this gain in immigrants, the city’s population would have decreased over the 1990’s.
Nearly half of the city’s foreign-born come from the Caribbean and Latin America, but significant numbers also hail from Eastern Europe and East Asia.
Source: Brookings Institute/US Census
Dec. 7th, 2005 20
What’s Next??? Further refine and update projection model. Drill down to the district level, so we can tie to SUNY’s top
feeder schools.
Also try county (district?) level projections for racial/ethnic, gender, and socio-economic distributions.
Continue to tie NYS high school data to SUNY applicant and enrollee trends for planning purposes.
Take a closer look at the “Big Five” school districts.
Consider other NYS demographic features such as national origin, language, sub-cultural elements, etc.
Dec. 7th, 2005 21
Questions??? Contact:
Renée M. OverdykeDirector of Enrollment Analysis
Office of Enrollment ManagementSUNY System Administration