Open Wireless Access: Will the carriers retain control? eComm, Mountain View CA, USA Dean Bubley, 14 th March 2008 [email protected]
Dean Bubley's presentation at eComm 2008
May 15, 2015
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Open Wireless Access: Will the carriers retain control?
eComm, Mountain View CA, USADean Bubley, 14th March 2008
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
So what does Open mean in Mobile? Open OS & smartphones Networks + unlocked devices Devices + multiple networks “Vanilla” devices - no feature lock-downs Off-portal content, apps & VoIP Interop across providers & devices No packet/app filtering in the network Innovation in unlicenced spectrum, UWB etc Open access & tech-neutrality in spectrum auctions Cognitive or software-defined radio
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
But……
International differences Slow pace of regulatory change Consumer apathy & inertia Laws of physics Scale economies Conflicting financial imperatives Public safety concerns Practicalities (eg antenna sites)
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Two worlds in mobile
USACanadaJapanKorea
>90% handsets sold via carriers<10% prepay<10% Nokia
Globally: 50% phones sold by carriers70% prepay, 40% Nokia
Mixed
Pretty much everywhere else
0-80% handsets sold via operators>50% prepay>40% Nokia
Carrier-control
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
How openness works in much of the world
$30 from electronics
store
SIM “starter pack” c$5, inc $3 credit. Bought
anonymously. No contract needed.
Credit top-up from $1.Bought from kid leaning
through bus window
+ +
Downsides: Poor support for data, number portability, few “services” beyond voice & SMS
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Openness in the UK
Starting @ $20 / month for 1GB
No roaming premium on-net
Or prepay $200 for modem then $1 per day / $10 per month
No restriction on applications
Competing against 4 other networks with other cost/policy
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Devices, arbitrage and IP
THE PAST
CellularOperator
Voice, SMSWiFi InternetInternet
3G IPdata
Bluetooth
THE PRESENT
SmartOS
InflexibleRTOS
Memory card
USBComplete control
of all voice, data & content that goes
to/from device
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
But do “Normobs” care about openness?
On the shelves at my local branch
of Carphone Warehouse in
London last week
9 Types of Smartphone 11 Types of Pinkphone
+ 9 Brandphones – Prada, Armani, Ted Baker, Levis, Porsche, Mandarina Duck, D&G, JCB, Apple
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
“Is Vodafone better than Orange? It’s just they have a pretty pink phone & I’m tempted”
Theoretical physics undergrad - Advanced software user who uses Mathematica on a PC to model fluid dynamics.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
What normobs actually care about
Aesthetics Camera Bluetooth Music Player Battery life
And in some cases Language support Qwerty
Car kit Memory slot Video Quad-band 3G
GPS Touchscreen
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Benevolent dictator or tyrant?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
The $100bn fly in the ointment of openness
SMS will be difficult to substitute $100 billion revenues worldwide 2 billion active users (twice that of email) 3 trillion messages per year Interoperability can be costly Implies mobile numbers in many countries
For at least the next 10 years, SMS support is table stakes
Source data – credit Tomi Ahonen
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Open wireless vs. Deep Packet Inspection
False positives Legal & regulatory risks Competition Protocol obfuscation – eg VoIP in HTML Encryption & VPNs Reverse-engineering of policies Proof & audit trail Applications are moving to XML & browser DPI / Anti-DPI war similar to viruses PR & marketing risk to reputation
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Convergence vs. Open multiplicity
One device? One number? One operator? One identity? One message box? One phonebook? One broadband? One femto? One social network?
…. users have complex, individual mobility preferences.
NOThis is not
what convergence
is about
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Multiplicity: users have choices
(2nd phone:close friends)
Multi-tasking, multi-access, multi-operator, least-cost-routing software
In bag:
Old college friends
Former colleagues Best mates
Informal business contacts
Parents
Work
Home:PSTN,
DSL & VoIP(calling Granny
in Australia)
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Open spectrum?
An Irishman stopped cutting the hedge, as a car drew up beside him and an English visitor enquired,
"Could you tell me the way to Balbriggan, Please?“
"You know, sir, if I was going to Balbriggan I wouldn't start from here at all."
Source: http://www.abitoblarney.com/irishjokes.htm
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
A fundamental problem
Radio signals >2GHz struggle to go through walls. So…..
• Use more power• Use more sites• Indoor solution
• Repeaters / antennas• Dual-mode• Femtos
• Helped a bit by MIMO etc
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
And more problems…….
1.1bn shipped in
2007
Opportunity cost of ‘elegant’ but complex & slow solutions
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Steps towards spectrum openness
Tentative acceptance of UWB Technology Neutrality / WAPECS Spectrum Trading Spectrum Usage Rights White space reuse Bandsharing in military / government spectrum Wholesale models
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Conclusions About 10 definitions of “open” Little public awareness of, or support for, abstract
concept of openness in mobile in any of its forms Inertia, apathy, convenience & familiarity are powerful forces
Competition should make it a non-issue It’s happening already, but slowly
Utopian visions fail to provide a route from here & now Full spectrum deregulation currently implausible Plenty more flexibility & openness in spectrum & devices
Bottom line: Carriers & Governments will retain a lot of control…. but it will be earned, subject to competition & arbitrage, and not just by default
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
Don’t be a dumb pipe, be a tiger-stripe pipe
(Huawei 3G HSDPA dongle modems, sold by 3 UK)
$10 patterned sticker = higher margin than most services
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
About Disruptive Analysis
Analyst house & consulting firm Blog at disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Established 2002, covering Wireless VoIP since Day 1 Deep research into:
FMC VoWLAN, VoIPo3G, femtocells Wireless broadband Spectrum issues Handset technology
New VoIPo3G report published Nov 07 “Don’t assume” – Consensus viewpoints are often flawed
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2008Mar 2008
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
+44 (0) 7941 100016
An eComm 2008 presentation –
http://eCommMedia.com for more
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