DART India Virtual Conference Series 2021 - Auto & Auto Ancillary ...

We hosted management and Experts from Auto & Auto Ancillary Ecosystem at our DART India Virtual Conference. Key takeaways were as follows: 1) Although retail demand is improving in tandem with recovery in the economy, Semiconductor shortages are hampering the production of PVs and premium bikes; 2) Green shoots can be seen in CV segment with increasing traction in Multi axle vehicle, tipper and ICV along with recovery in freight rate; 3) Overall Rural sentiment is positive and increase in spending power to boost up the overall consumption; 4) Tractor demand is weak, high channel inventory and rising tractor prices are key laggards; 5) RM inflation continues to impact near term margin; 6) Tyre and batteries demand is improving well led by increase in fleet utilization,traction in personal mobility and pent up demand and 7) Expect faster adoption of e-scooter led by lucrative incentives.

Key Takeaways

Corporates Rolex Ring: Export is likely to deliver better growth over the domestic

market. Under exports both the bearing and auto component segment is gaining traction contributing 50% export revenue each.

MM Forgings: Class 8 truck demand is encouraging and recovery in domestic CV and increasing proportion of Machining to drive earnings. Current capacity at 100k tonnes and expected to increase to 120k tonnes by the end of this fiscal

Minda Corporation: Increase in content per vehicle and introduction of new products to drive near to medium term revenue. Targeting double digit margin

Escorts: Company expect low single digit for tractor, while expecting strong growth in construction equipment and in railway order execution speed picked up.

Craftsman Auto: Powertrain business growth continues to be strong led by recovery in M&HCV . Expect significant growth in the Industrial & Engineering segment for medium to long term.

Subros: AC for E-PV will cost around 2X of normal AC and the company expects to realise better revenues with EVs coming into play. Content in e-buses would be increased by 1.5x.

JBM Auto: Expecting exponential growth in Bus business. The company is looking to increase Bus capacity from 3,000 units to 13,000 units by FY24 in two phases .

Sterling Tools: Focus on introducing products in EVs segment EV business expected to contribute around Rs. 600mn to the top line in FY22.

CarTrade Tech: Company looks to expand into consumer business like consumer services, insurance, etc. and will be looking to make acquisitions in the future in these segments.

Sandhar Technologies: The company has won several new business in across segment. Expect quarterly run rate to go up by Rs 1.50-2bn from FY23.

DART India Virtual Conference Series 2021 - Auto & Auto Ancillary Sector

Abhishek Jain Rahul Jain Analyst VP - Research

+9122 40969739 +9122 40969771 [email protected] [email protected]

Kripashankar Maurya Divyesh Mehta

Associate Associate +9122 40969741 +91 22 40969768

[email protected] [email protected]

Harsh Gemavat

Associate

+9122 40969770

[email protected]

September 28, 2021

Participation

Corporates

Rolex ring

MM Forgings

Minda Corp

Escorts

Craftsman Auto

Subros

JBM Auto

Sterling Tools

Escorts

Sandhar Technologies

Non-Corporates

Tyres & battery Expert

Tractor Dealer UP

RE dealer UP

Mr. Ashok Goyal, CV

Mr. Ravi Bhatia- PV

Mr. Varun Chaturvedi, EV charging Infra

Mr. Yuvraj Sarda, EV

Mr. Ashish Pande, 2W and PV

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September 28, 2021 2

Non Corporates

Tyres and Battery Expert: Current demand trend seems strong for batteries and tyre both led by increasing trend of personal mobility, pent up demand and increase in fleet utilization. All companies have taken several price hike to dilute the impact of RM inflation

Tractor Dealer: Tractor demand expected to be good in the next quarter with the onset of sone months which is supposed to be an auspicious period coupled with recovery in rural income. However growth would be contrained by high base

RE and Bharat Benz Dealer: In RE online enquiries are high, however conversion ratio is low. Supply side constraints are hurting production.

CV Expert: Demand in CV is mainly coming from the E-commerce sector with further demand expected from the recovery in the construction segment along with economic recovery.

PVs Expert: Semiconductors have become an essential part, trend of autonomous electrification connected cars is growing, every vehicle today holds $500-1100 worth of semiconductors in a vehicle. Semiconductor supply was affected globally due to natural disasters hitting different countries like fire in Japan and ice storm in Texas

EV Charging Expert: Almost 80% business is expected from CV going as home charging facilities would be available for PVs and 2W.

EV Expert: The EV industry is currently gaining traction powered by EV compliant policies and subsidies which are being pushed by the government. Corporates are opting EV for its lower cost of operation

2W Expert: H2FY22 is expected to be better for 2W with the reopening of schools and colleges and better rural income.


INDEX

Sr. No. Particulars Page

Corporates

1 Rolex ring 6

2 MM Forgings 7

3 Minda Corp 8

4 Escorts 9

5 Craftsman Auto 10

6 Subros 11

7 JBM Auto 12

8 CarTrade Tech 13

9 Sterling Tools 14

10 Sandhar Technologies 15

Non-Corporates

11 Tyres & Battery Expert 16

12 Tractor Dealer UP 17

13 RE Dealer UP 18

14 Mr. Ashok Goyal, BLR Logistiks 19

15 Mr. Ravi Bhatia, PVs Expert 20

16 Mr. Varun Chaturvedi- Head, Volattic 21

17 Mr. Yuvraj Sarda, EVs Expert 22

18 Mr. Ashish Pande, 2W Expert 23


Rolex Ring

Rolex manufactures bearing rings and auto forgings components. Bearing rings, comprising both inner and outer components of bearing and the company supplies to all global multinationals bearing companies. Having expertise in precision engineering of various Forging and machining over a period of 4 decades. The company has 3 manufacturing facilities in Rajkot.

Domestic and Export revenue mix stood at 65:35%. Bearing rings and auto components mix stands at 60:40%.

In the bearing segment, demand is across all verticals be it automotive, industrial applications, railways, infrastructure. Seeing decent enquiries and orders for auto components in the domestic market.

Export is likely to deliver better growth over the domestic market. Under exports both the bearing and auto component segment is gaining traction contributing 50% export revenue each.

Some export customers include Timken, Schaeffler, etc. Company offers more than 700 types of products in these markets.

Export market for Auto components is majorly the US and for bearings is Europe. Magna from North America which is into transmission has awarded an order to Rolex Rings

Alloy steel bar is the only raw material which constitutes 20-25% import, however a pass-on mechanism is in place which protects margins. RMs are procured as per client specification hence; higher input costs are passed on.

Timken group contributes around 23% of the total revenue for the company.

Semiconductor issue is expected to be resolved by the end of 2021 which will help boost revenues of the company.

Bearing requirements in EVs will be around 60% lower than ICE vehicles. But the company has started manufacturing and supplying other EV agnostic components for its export clients and sees an opportunity going ahead in EVs as well.


MM Forgings US and European markets are currently performing better than the

Indian CV space. Domestic market was affected due to the second Covid wave and it is yet to pick up. A lot of steam left in the domestic market. Expect monthly run rate to improve to Rs. 1.5bn per month.

RM cost is passed through with lag effect to most of its clients. However, people cost will go up which will be compensated by operating leverage

LCV will be the first segment to be electrified in foreign markets. The Indian market will be less affected by EVs because of the cost competitiveness given LCV here is an entry level market.

Capacity expansion taking place due to deferral of previously discussed capacity and company is looking to continue with their expansion plans.

Current capacity at 100k tonnes and expected to increase to 120k tonnes by the end of this fiscal. Capex for capacity addition is around Rs. 300mn for forging side, out of that Rs. 200mn has already been spent.

Total capex would be Rs. 2bn for FY22 and most of capex would be increasing machining capacity.

Company has acquired 3 new customers for its Clover line of business and now these customers may be increasing their business with MM forging for some other components as well across the product segment.

The company has acquired a part facility of Amtek for Machining only for Rs 900 mn. Amtek Acquisition will add revenue potential of about Rs. 250-300mn.

The company is looking to focus on the Non-Automotive side to de-risk business and win a lot of new products.

Class 8 truck demand is encouraging however production is affected due to semiconductor shortage. Expect 10% de-growth in production in 2021


Minda Corp Management remains cautiously optimistic for the remaining fiscal

and hoping for slow but gradual recovery both in economy as well as in automotive sales driven by higher spend on infrastructure and normal monsoon. Expect EBITDA margin to be around double digit going forward.

Company is spending around 2% in R&D. Company has 2 Advanced Engineering centres in Pune and Gurgaon.

Per content on smart keys will cost around Rs. 3-4k up from around Rs. 450 earlier for regular locking systems in E-2W. Shift from Analog cluster to digital will lead to increase in content per vehicle from Rs. 400-500 to Rs.1-1.2k. Die casting , sensor, wiring harness content is also expected to increase while transitioning to EV.

95% of the product portfolio of the company is EV agnostic. For battery DC-DC converters companies already have orders in place and the company expects better performance from EV portfolio going ahead. EV contribution to Revenue was around Rs. 2.3bn in FY21.

Company has 5 business verticals and none of the customers contribute more than 15% of the total revenues.

JV with INFAC will help companies improve market share in PV where the company has low presence. Expect production to start from FY22.

Key RM for the company are Copper, Aluminum and Zinc. RM cost increase is passed on with a quarterly lag.

Company has been able to formulate a keyless solution for 2W and has won business from Bajaj and other players. These products are more viable for EV players and the company expects this to grow as further EV penetration takes place.

Die casting business has been growing well and expect this to grow further at a CAGR of 20%.

Company expects to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the PLI scheme and is talking with consultants like EY to understand how it can be availed.

Semiconductor shortage is indirectly affecting company’s business with OEMs cutting production. Impact might be in the range of 5-10%.

In the last 3 months, the company has made a technical agreement with ADAS, and made a joint venture with INFAC which is a Korean Company which has customers like Hyundai. Minda gave out 5% stake cumulatively to 5 PE funds to get some industry stallwards on board to improve operation efficiency of the company.

Company has recently acquired a 26% equity stake in charging solutions startup EVQPOINT. Through this acquisition, the company will strengthen its EV Supply Equipment portfolio and the group will continue developing future-ready product line, technologies and solutions, to harness the vast opportunity in the electric mobility space in India.


Escorts The company is targeting low single digit growth for tractor in FY22 on

high base led by positive macroeconomic factors like high reservoir levels with margin expected to be at healthy level.

Company is building inventory for festive season on expectation of pent up demand. Export volume is ramping up well largely through own network of Escorts, however from next year onwards significant growth is expected from Kubota channel.

Exports are targeted around 8-10k units. Company focusing on exports to grow its business.

Company has taken 3 price hikes till now and may take another one post the festive season.

Growth in construction equipment business is expected with government spending increasing for the infrastructure segment.

New emission norms have been delayed to October, 2022 for Higher HP tractors.

Currently, Cash is being deployed towards product development mainly in the Railway segment and general R&D.

Market share in backhoe ladders is less than 2%, while in the cranes segment, the company has a market share ranges between 20-30% for different types of cranes.

In the railways segment, the company is focused on component manufacturing with an order book of around Rs. 3bn till June, 2021 and expect to get back to pre covid levels by end of FY22.

Company current order book for the railways segment is getting serviced much faster than new tenders received and the company is focused on getting these orders serviced in time.

Credit period to dealers in the construction equipment business was around 60 days while the tractor segment has a cash and carry model.


Craftsman Automation Revenue from Auto powertrain is 50-55%, Industrial engineering is

30% and remaining from others. Most of the EBITDA still comes from Powertrain business (around 60%).

Expecte Industrial Engineering segment to be one of the bigger contributors of revenue growth in next 3-4 years.

Company has a pass-through mechanism of RM cost for most of its businesses. The Storage Business didn’t have a pass through mechanism but the company has new contracts in place with customers where price fluctuation over a certain limit will be passed through.

Q2 will see a more realistic contribution from the aluminium business in its financials. EBITDA contribution will still not be too high in percentage terms from this segment for this quarter.

Company has a plant in Jamshedpur for axle parts machining. Company caters to Daimler in this business.

Company expects 90% of this segment will come from heavy duty components. Distances covered by cargo have gone up from 200km to 600-700km now and in the future may see more contribution from the heavy duty segment.

Company expects better export business with business from North America moving to India from China.

HCVs do not shift to EVs in the near to medium term (6-7 years). Tractors too will not switch to EV in the same period. In PVs, expect 500-800cc engines may be the first to switch to pure EV. Aluminium plays an important part in these EVs in Die casting, forging and a lot of other businesses in the industry.

Aluminium content per vehicle is increasing and the company expects to benefit from this shift in Industry.


Subros Subros Ltd. is engaged in the manufacturing of thermal products

utilized in the PV & CV segment, supplying air conditioning and cooling systems for all systems of mobility products. The company faced some difficulties due to the second wave of covid which was further impacted by semi-conductor shortage in the industry, impacting OEM production. Company is confident to outperform growth in near to medium term.

OEMs have indicated that the semiconductor shortage was due to a supplier being shut in Japan due to fire, snow in Texas, and Malaysia being impacted by second wave of covid.

Mahindra hasn't indicated any change in production plans to the company yet and so things continue as guided. September volume was tuned down to original number which is lower than expectation and Company will be expecting a little downsizing from these customers in October but is still awaiting an update on this which may be as early as the next week.

Electrification of ACs for the E-PV segment has already started. AC for E-PV will cost around 2X of normal AC and the company expects to realise better revenues with EVs coming into play. Content in e-buses would be increased by 1.5x.

Commercial vehicle

Bus Aircon will require a complete change in product line while electrification takes place and the company is in the final stages of finalizing the same. On the Truck side, company sees a slow transition towards EV but is ready with a product line whenever the electrification takes place.

Home AC

Home AC, currently struggling with high MSR and low EBITDA, company intends to improve the overall efficiency with help of products which have backward integration and localization of parts. Company has passed on some RM cost to the OEM and is also in negotiation with the OEM for next season to neutralise the RM cost.

Others

In the Railway segment, Company has started converting retrofits of driver cabins. Tenders ahead are exciting and the company is optimistic of getting these tenders and once the company delivers all its tenders by December this year, the company will be eligible to bid for tenders for the coach aircon segment of railways which will be almost 10X the size of current orders.

Company does not qualify for PLI with its current product portfolio. Companies reviewing opportunities to get into other related segments to avail PLI like the electric compressor and with electrification going ahead aggressively may be worth investing into.


JBM Auto JBM group was established in 1996 and operates in three business

segments 1) Autocomp & Systems, 2) Tools and Dies and 3) CNG & Electric Buses. Company strategically located at 16 locations in India and has two JVs with Yorozu Corporation (Japan) and Ogihara (Thailand).

JBM forayed into Electric bus in FY20 and under FAME-I it started delivering electric buses, in FY21. The company is looking to increase its utilisation in the E-bus segment and also to increase capacity from 3,000 units to 13,000 units by FY24 in two phases once the plant commissioned it would be the largest plant in Asia outside china for electric bus.

Autocomp & Systems

In Autocomp & Systems company operates in three segment 1) skin panels, 2) welded assemblies, and 3) Body in white and Chassis (BIW). In Skin panels, the company makes skin parts from coil and sheet metal. JBM is the only company in India who manufactured outside skin panels as most of the OEM manufactured by themselves. In BIW and Chassis company manufactured complicated parts and in welded assembly company provides complete assembled system to OEMs.

Key Growth Triggers for Tools & Dies are 1) Increasing share of Export revenue from OEM, 2) Increasing trend of Indigenization for tools and dies by OEMs, 3) Increasing frequency of launches of new models in market.

Electric & CNG Buses

Company has created this segment to reap the benefit of transition into electric vehicles. Under this division the company manufactures buses on two kinds of platform 1) CNG and 2) Electric buses. Under CNG JBM manufactures three brands 1) Citylife used in public transport, 2) skoolife and 3) skylife used at airports.

In the bus segment JBM has expanded its footprint into the NCR region, Navi Mumbai, Andaman, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad. So far the company has delivered 1000+ buses to various STUs and Institutions and the current order book is over 1000+ buses.

Key growth driver for electric vehicle: 1) Climate changes due to increasing harmful gases such as SO2 & NO2 in the atmosphere by industry transport, 2) E-buses are more economical in difficult and ideal condition as compared to other form of public transport like Diesel or Hybrid based buses and 3) lowest TCO vs Diesel and CNG buses

In its electric mobility ecosystem JBM manufactures battery, motor and traction systems. Also it provides power transmission & distribution service along with charging infrastructure. Company manages its fleet with the help of artificial intelligence & Machine learning and also takes care of operation and maintenance of the fleet.


CarTrade Tech CarTrade Tech initially started as an online exchange portal for cars

offered by banks for auction with target customers consisting of various dealers across India (B2B). Company then added focus on B2C segment as well with the acquisition of CarWale and grew its footsteps in the B2B, B2C and C2B segment. Currently, CarWale, CarTrade and BikeWale are three brands registered under CarTrade Tech’s portfolio.

In 2016, Sriram Automalls (SAML) was acquired to bring together SAML’s offline model along with the company’s online model.

Company looks to expand into consumer business like consumer services, insurance, etc. and will be looking to make acquisitions in the future in these segments.

Used car financing penetration is currently low and the company looks to organise this sector by speeding up the financing process with building system to give loan approval for used car buyers in less than a day.

Company looks to build this business and expand this software solution in foreign markets as well.

Company uses machine learning techniques to better serve customers and the company is focused on building its software systems further going ahead.

Company partners with dealers and turn these dealer stores to appshore stores which are an offline store where customers can avail warranties, insurance, and other value added services at their stores along with cars offered on their portals.

Under the CarWale and BikeWale brands, the company is focused more on the new vehicle offerings. Company has a 4 day return policy for any vehicle purchased from its portal.

Digital car sales penetration in India is only around 10-15% currently compared to over 30% in Europe and the company expects growing penetration going ahead to be beneficial for the company.


Sterling tools The company has a focus on Automotive fasteners segments with

focus on EV as well and not looking to venture into industrial segment.

A large percentage of fasteners are still being imported, especially by the Japanese OEMs. Maruti Suzuki is the largest importer. Toyota, Honda and Hyundai are also importing. Fasteners currently imported in India are around Rs. 6bn. Localisation of this business can be pushed further by the intent of the OEMs and their targets regarding localisation of this part of their business.

The company has market shares close to 25% in the OEMs segment. Largest consumer of fasteners (spend per truck) is the CV segment followed by PV and then by 2W.

Company confident to grow better than the industry in the faceable future due to increasing market share from existing customers as well as acquiring new ones.

CV segment is counter cyclical to PV segment and working across all segments helps companies perform better at any point of time in the industry.

EV business expected to contribute around Rs. 600mn to the top line in FY22.

Company has a step down subsidiary which is a JV with Chinese and Japanese companies to produce motor controller manufacturers mainly for E2W and E3W.

The company has strategic and technology association with Medio corporation to increase presence among Japanese customers, namely Suzuki Honda Toyota and Yamaha

Company has major exposure to CV, Tractors and farm equipment business. Company expects this business to be the last one to switch to EV and the company faces no threat in the short to medium term.

Company expects disruption in the fasteners industry to not happen for at least 7 years going ahead. Yet, as a future driven company, it has started to invest in EV agnostic products as well.


Sandhar Technologies Outlook

Economic activity is coming back to normal. PV demand is encouraging however supply side constraints persist in near term. Tractor segment continues to do well due to normal monsoon and demand from CV is also picking up.

Company is putting up 6 plants which are largely for sheet metal and fabrication business for customers like Hero, HMSI, etc.

Manpower cost is expected to increase due to increase in minimum wages, however margins continue to be healthy with the help of operating efficiency.

Company has added HMSI (new order wins in casting, lock, mirrors and sheet metal) and Hyundai as its clients in FY22 . Moreover, Company anticipate 40-50% growth in ADC business and expects revenues of around Rs.8-10bn in the next 2 year.

Cabin business monthly revenue run rate increases from Rs.250-260 mn to Rs.350-400mn

Cabin and fabrication business margins are expected to come up at levels of other business verticals of the company.

Sandhar is prepared for any kind of advancements in the locking segment. Immobilizer locks have started featuring in the 2W segment as well. Normal locks used to cost around Rs. 300/unit but these new age locks will cost around 3-4x higher. This will support margins expansion as well as top line growth.

3 JVs have become profitable and expect others to cut losses and become profitable as well in a year or two. Company expects JVs to contribute around Rs. 4bn revenues on a consolidated basis.

Some JVs are already producing electronically enabled components and the company expects benefit of this to come at group level.

Company has been working on technologies in EV and making EV agnostic products and also received approval from ola to supply component .

Company is eligible for PLI scheme, and is venturing into technology related to EV, some of the JV are already doing sensor and PCB manufacturing etc.

Monthly helmet run rate expected to improve from 50k to 60k and expected to cross 100k units by end of year.

Mexico plant growing at the fastest pace followed by romania and the govt of Romania has provided a subsidy on investment made by the company and expect revenues to be around 10mn euro.

EV revenue is around 3% of the total revenues on a quarterly basis amounting ~Rs. 25mn. Which is expected to increase in near term. Expect this to go up. Major sales for EV coming from foreign subsidiaries.


Tryre and Battery Expert The battery industry has seen significant recovery because of pent up

demand led by increasing traction in personal mobility, and even the unorganized players have benefited from this trend. Current demand trend seems strong for batteries. Inverter Battery demand is growing due to a shift towards WFH culture.

Battery manufacturers working on a cash and carry model currently. Companies are providing significant incentives to dealers and suppliers.

Currently E-2W have switched mostly towards VRLA batteries while PVs are still using lead acid batteries. Luxury car players have started using VRLA batteries but these are not currently available in India.

Margins for retailers are around 35% including the scrap value. Scrap value received on batteries has also gone up by 25-30%.

Amara Raja has over 700 franchises with each franchise having around 100-200 dealers network under them. Amara Raja has gained market share through their distribution network model.

Exide is performing better in rural areas whereas Amara has been lagging in rural areas due to insufficient dealer network in those regions.

Amara Raja has gained market share and procured orders from Hero MotoCorp during the lockdown due to better product availability. This will help to grow aftermarket sales in the 2W segment. It also caters for 90% of the demand for Royal Enfield. In PV, Amara Raja has launched new batteries in tie up with Maruti Genuine Parts garages, which help to gain market share in PV aftermarket.

Exide is working on fine tuning its distribution network with authorised dealers and some new distributors facing problems relating to control of a particular geographical area.

Tyre Industry

Credit period for dealers currently is around 30 days. Some companies provide additional incentives for shorter credit periods like 7-10 days. MRF has a pure cash and carry model.

Unconditional warranties being offered by tyre manufacturers for a period of 2-3 years where any kind of damage can be covered in the warranty. This is only available at authorized dealerships and not at unauthorized dealerships.

Due to the imposition of import ban which was imposed 18 months ago, only those categories of tyres which are not manufactured in India like RFT Tyres are given the permit to be imported, which has led to short supply of tyres. The demand gap is partially being filled by domestic manufacturers like Apollo, CEAT, MRF, JK Tyres, Goodyear.


Goodyear (Kelly) and Bridgestone (Firestone FS100) are doing well in this segment. This ban is expected to continue for the next few quarters which will help the domestic players garner a healthy topline.

All tyre manufacturers have taken price hikes of 8-10% to offset RM cost inflation. Apollo will be taking another price hike in the next month.

Tyre manufacturers are offering dealers with a purchase limit of 1:1 ratio post covid from 1:3 offered earlier. This means that dealers can only get tyres worth the amount of deposit kept with the company now compared to 3 times the amount of deposit earlier.

Tractor Dealer-M&M, UP Tractor demand may be better in Q3 compared to last quarters due to

end of shradh period post which rural demand starts to pick up with the following couple of months considered auspicious for any purchases to be made in rural regions. Dealers historically register approximately 50-60% of their annual targets during this period. However, delayed monsoons around this time have delayed harvesting and sowing activities in the regions. Given the higher base we expect demand to be subdued in FY22.

Ongoing farmer protests in Punjab and Haryana may create problems for farmers in the central regions of India which include UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, etc. This is because farmers from Punjab and Haryana migrate to these central regions during this period to help out with the harvesting activities. This may result in a shortage of labour in the central regions of India and a fall in farmers’ income for these regions.

Demand for Higher HP tractors have been coming down given the high base from last year and rural income being affected due to the second wave of covid.

Non-Agri business was affected due to new policy implementations in place like reduction in the trailer sizes permissible for haulage & other activities and the compulsory registration of tractors used for commercial purposes.

Tractor implements in India is potentially a Rs. 10bn industry and currently India has potential to grow. Globally Farmers purchase 4-5 implements along with tractor whereas in India currently farmers buy only 1-2 implements. Hence, we can expect this number to grow with the addition of modern implements in the market. Implements can add to tractors ability in being used for more than 250 functions rather than currently just being used for agriculture.

Inventory levels are currently at pre covid levels for tractors. Tractor inventory level is currently at around 45 days at dealer level.


Crop yield was higher this year compared to last year and that affected

the price of paddy crops. But in the current fiscal yield may be expected to be lower due to delayed monsoons in the central part of India. Expect potato output to be lower affected by adverse situations as well.

Price hikes in the last 6 months was around 2-4%.Further price hikes can be in the range of 4-5% on cost affected by new emission norms coming into place.

M&M has been gaining market share currently due to its leadership position in the market and there isn’t any financing assistance being provided which is helping them gain this additional share.

RE and Bharat Benz Dealer

Royal Enfield

In RE online enquiries are high, however conversion ratio is low. On the supply side dealers are not getting vehicles and it is still uncertain about availability of various models. Huge cancellation in Meteor range due to supply side constraint and price hike, supply for classic 350 is also not very consistent and customers are mainly first time buyers.

Cancellation for Meteor is igh due to supply side constraint and price hike, supply for classic 350 is also not very consistent and customers are mainly first time buyers.

RE is trying to improve its delivery network with adding features on its website to get customers a tentative delivery date for any bookings done.

Studio store launched with 3 years’ dealership to get the filler of rural market. As of now very low dealers are reached at break even point.

Resale price of MC is falling down, enquiry from existing customer is low due to price hike and apprehension of fuel economy.

Financing mix is 40-45% of overall sales taken by salaried and self-employed.

CV

Current CV condition is not much encouraging as UP largely cater to small fleet operator. Main driver for CV demand is currently on the availability of CNG models as price differential between Diesel and CNG is almost Rs.30. Eicher is leading in the CV market with 65% market share in UP for tonnage upto 12 tonne. Discounts have been higher for CVs compared to previous year.

Company is now focused on clocking 3k units a month from across the segment led by new product launches.


On the financing side, LTV ratios have come down due to higher margin required at the time of purchase of CV. LTV has come down to 75% from 90% earlier.

Demand from CNG- ICV engine is very encouraging led by availability of CNG pump and lower fuel price compared to diesel. Eicher is leading the position in CNG segment.

Ashok Leyland losing the market in Northern market due to low dealer network and lack of service centre. Ashok Leyland has been losing market share to Tata and Eicher.

BS-6 Vehicle is doing well, however electric failure is major concern which leds to breakdown of trucks such as failure of ECU.

Mr. Ashok Goyal, BLR logistiks

CV industry seems to be back at pre covid levels but there is a shift in demand with major demand coming for corporate fleets and relatively low demand from small fleet owners. Freight rates have gone up by around 4% but is not enough to cover the cost for small fleet owners. A large part of the demand in CV is coming from the E-commerce sector.

Demand further may come from the construction segment with economic recovery and tippers may gain tractions.

CNG vehicle purchase cost is higher than BS6 vehicles but the cost differential can be recovered in about a year given the differential in the cost of operations of the two variants. Cost of operating a CNG vehicle is 40% lower than BS6 engine in LCVs

Ocean freight rates will continue to be higher for at least 18 months going ahead due to the pent up demand. Purchasing sentiments is high due to fear of the economy again if the situation worsens given the risk of 3rd covid wave.

Rates in the south have been historically lower than rates for the western parts of India. Due to sudden increase in demand of trucks post easing of lockdown in the South region freight rate has increased however it is moderating now. Returning freight is still lower than Pre-Covid level.

Increased toll charges (growing 15% every year), Driver cost (increased due to driver shortage) and maintenance cost is the key cost eating fleet operators margin.

Expect demand for HCV segment to moderate once dedicated freight corridor operational as Trucks won't be competitive with railways. However, LCV and ICV continue to be in demand due to the requirement of intermediary and last mile connectivity delivery.

Cost of converting Diesel vehicles into LNG is currently higher and we don't see companies making that kind of investment in the current situation.

High charging time and range anxiety is currently not in favour of CV, especially HCV and MCV. Smaller vehicles may adopt EV first.


Mr. Ravi Bhatia, PVs Expert Semiconductors have become an essential part, trend of autonomous

electrification and connected cars is growing, every vehicle today holds $500-1100 worth of semiconductors in a vehicle.

Semiconductor supply was affected globally due to natural disasters hitting different countries like fire in Japan and ice storm in Texas, which were major production centers. This was further affected with the Covid pandemic.

Automotive companies reduced purchase of semiconductors during the onset of the pandemic and suppliers started diverting supply to the infotainment industry which resulted in supply chain issues initially when the demand started to pick up again.

Semiconductor shortage may result in short term marginal increase in price but cost may not rise sustainably going ahead.

Semiconductor capacity will grow going ahead not majorly driven by demand but mainly because countries will be looking to be less dependent on outside suppliers. The US is trying to take leadership in semiconductor production while China wants to start taking control for the fulfilment of their own demand.

The semiconductor shortage has resulted in OEMs shifting focus on de-featuring models which are being pushed through their dealerships. Another thing OEMs are doing is producing vehicles and just building them in inventory till semi-conductors can be installed in these vehicles.

India is looking to start sourcing some business into testing and packaging like Malaysia currently does and will be trying to grow in this segment. Some Indian players are looking to get into this.

Digital sales currently are less than 10% of the total sales which is higher than last year given covid has given a push on this digitization trend but this may depend on the adaptability of the customers going ahead along with dealer participation.

With emission norms kicking in at a faster speed, having CNG and EV products in the portfolio is always beneficial for every Auto player. These emission norms are also helping create a lot of noise for EVs in India.


Mr. Varun Chaturvedi - Head, Volattic

Volattic is EV charging company focus on charging infrastructure registered in 2017. Volattic not only builds infrastructure but also runs charging stations. Currently Volattic has 200 charge points and will be adding 400 charge points in this year.

Volattic ties up with cars 24 and other such players to develop charging points at these stores and other places where they are easily accessible. Current runtime of these stations are 8-10 hours.

For E-PVs being charged at home will result in an additional load of about 7kw on every charging. No such additional load for E-2Ws. These can be resolved with societies/communities coming up with charging facilities in common parking areas.

EV is currently at 50% of the operating cost of an ICE vehicle and is expected to come down to almost 30% going ahead.

Four types of charger available in India are Bharat PC- for low voltage EV, CCS, Chademo and AC charging.

EV is expected to have a lot of verticals similar to ICE going ahead like components, Charging stations, accessories, etc.

Components are currently being imported for charging infra. There are a lot of offerings in connectors that are specialized by OEMs as seen in Mobile phone markets with companies like Apple, Samsung, etc.

Almost 80% business is expected from CV going ahead for these charging stations due to home charging facilities available for PVs and 2W.

Slow charging will gain momentum in cities while fast chargers will have higher adoption at highways.

One charging point costs around Rs. 250k used for commercial purpose in the fast charging segment. Average cost of setting up a charging station costs around Rs. 2mn. 50Kw charging machinery setup to cost around Rs. 1mn and goes to Rs. 2mn with maintainance and land cost and other expenses.

Subsidy is a short term solution but focus should be on the demand side to build a sustainable business.

Average utilization per charging machine is expected to be around 8-9 hours.

65% chargers currently are slow chargers and contribute about 30% of the total revenues with utilization of around 7-8 hours.

Current focus is on building charging infra in densely populated regions, i.e, Metros and Tier 1 cities.

3W would require moderate to fast chargers. 70% chargers for this segment will be slow to moderate chargers and remaining will be fast chargers.


Mr. Yuvraj Sarda EV industry is currently gaining traction powered by EV compliant

policies and subsidies being pushed by the government. Corporates opting EV for its lower cost of operation and sustainability.

Currently EV constitutes only 100-150k market in India out of the 20mn vehicles currently sold in India.

Lithium ion penetration in Indian Auto industry was boosted by the FAME II policy launched by the GOI and the adoption by players like Ather, Okinawa, Hero Electric and Ampere.

Cap on Subsidy on Battery pack was increased by GOI from 20% earlier to 40% under FAME II policy which helped companies move towards bigger battery packs in Vehicles to improve range of the existing EV.

Electric High speed vehicle sales were around 12,000 in July from under 1,000 before second wave of Covid.

Ola electric’s entry into the market was a major traction for the industry with Ola being able to book 1 lakh vehicles in 2 days and at present deliveries for the same have begun.

2W segment to be the first one to move to EV with scooter share increasing in Urban areas and getting electrified powered by subsidies. Urban areas will see the overall move to EV in the 2W segment with major penetration in scooter segment and the motorcycles. This is because in Urban areas with shorter distance of travels EVs provide more economic sense for the consumers. Technology upgradation may result in shortening of the replacement cycle of 2W in India.

To extend the scope of EV further from E2W segment currently will require providing customers with EVs with higher range and faster charging facilities and infra. So here, offering options like portable batteries or Swappable battery model can make these segments move further ahead towards sustainable EV growth.

Hydrogen technology has been in developments for a few years now but it may take a few more years to get it perfected for consumer usage. So, for near to medium term we may see lithum ion battery technology as running the EV industry. Thus, Lithium ion Technology is expected to be the EV technology for a decade going ahead.

Battery costs are currently $200-250 with import duties and all other cost included. Expect this cost to come down to around $100 for larger players with further loacalisation and higher volume manufacturing.

Bigger players like Panasonic, Samsung and other players will be eyeing to target the Local battery cell manufacturing segment which will be supported with incentives worth Rs. 180bn and bigger players will look to make full utilization of the same.


Two technologies, NMC and LFP, are currently highly used in the Indian EV space for 2W, 3W, PV and CV segments. Some other technologies are also being looked at for Bus segments but are in waiting given the higher value proposition currently given by existing technologies.

The standard battery pack vision is also focused on bringing efficiency and easing in the battery swapping model where inter-swapping is not possible currently.

Companies facilitating fast charging by enhancing their thermal cooling technology with batteries being cooled down while charging thus keeping the life of these batteries intact. Thus, fast charging Battery will have a cycle which will be similar to a slow charging battery.

Mr. Ashish Pandey, 2W Expert

Expect 2nd half for 2W is to be better led by re-opening of schools and colleges, resumption of economic activity and employment generation however if 3rd wave arises it may spoil the growth momentum.

Expect sales in October-November to improve specially in cow belt areas like Jharkhand, Bihar, UP, MP and Rajasthan due to festive and marriage season.

Entry level bikes are expected to do well led by festive season spending in rural area, better yield of Rabi crops like wheat and pulses. 40% of the motorcycle sales comes from rural areas.

The cost of 2W scooters have gone up which has helped boost the used 2W market. Consumers are also delaying purchase of new 2W thus affecting the demand for overall 2W market.

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Platina has been performing well with contribution in Bajaj’s 110cc portfolio domestically increasing from 65% to 75%. This was at the expense of pulsar sales which were affected compared to last year.

HeroMoto Corp

Most dealers of Hero motorcycles have blocked their inventory funding with no additional inventory.

Marketing strategy of Hero better than its peer as company able to plan the production proactively hence able to capture the market share

TVS Motors

TVS is facing a lot of headwind for Jupiter from Activa, Access and also from e-scooters.

TVS raider is only available to dealers holding 1-month inventory with intent to hold more inventory at their end. Jupiter sales have been impacted in last months and TVS has lost market share to HMSI.


Suzuki Motors

Burgman doing well in Maharashtra and Marathawada. Company also come with exclusive MC dealership in Pune, Mumbai and Delhi, expect festive season to do well. Suzuki has been working on launch of E2W scooter soon.

Semiconductor shortage has left its mark on SMCs as well given most components now under BS6.

HMSI

Expect opening of economy from next month to help boost sales for HMSI for its scooter segment, i.e, Activa and also for Bikes like Honda Shine. Dealers currently holding less inventory due to slower supply. Current inventory is around 4 weeks compared to historically being around 6-8 weeks for festive season

Royal Enfield

RE has been experiencing production constraints and company has indicated the production might be capped at 50k units a month at least for next 2-3 months as company not able to get ABS from Malaysia where country is under lockdown.

Electric Vehicle

Advanced Automotive technology is aimed to help companies become export driven from import dependent. Total outlay is Rs.260bn and scheme aim to push green technology.

As per latest R&D, Lithium batteries may be replaced by aluminium given its cheaper price and easily available in India.

Expect EV inflection point to come sometime in future due to the difficulty in making IC engines completely emission free.

Passenger vehicle

Demand for PV has been better than 2W in MP region post the Covid scenario as the customer of PV segment were less affected by the impact of Covid 2nd wave. This was mainly also because of easy financing options available to this category of customers.


Valuation Matrix

Auto OEMs Mcap CMP TP Upside Rating Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%)

(Rs Bn) (Rs) (Rs) (%) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Ashok Leyland 379 130 151 17 Accumulate 0.8 (1.1) 1.6 5.3 158.3 NA 80.0 24.6 33.8 NA 25.9 13.7 3.1 -4.4 6.5 21.0

Bajaj Auto 1129 3,900 4,047 4 Reduce 176.2 157.0 182.7 216.6 22.1 24.8 21.3 18.0 18.8 18.5 15.9 13.0 24.5 20.2 23.7 28.1

Eicher Motors 784 2,875 2,571 (11) Sell 66.9 49.3 76.5 102.8 42.9 58.3 37.6 28.0 32.3 38.9 26.2 19.9 19.3 12.6 17.3 20.6

Escorts 183 1,491 1,235 (17) Reduce 53.6 86.5 83.1 83.4 27.8 17.2 18.0 17.9 26.6 15.1 16.3 15.5 15.2 19.7 14.4 12.6

Hero Motocorp 583 2,920 3,064 5 Accumulate 148.0 148.4 163.9 191.5 19.7 19.7 17.8 15.2 13.5 12.9 11.8 9.9 21.9 20.2 20.7 22.6

M&M 954 804 914 14 Buy 20.6 24.0 38.3 44.1 38.9 33.5 21.0 18.2 14.9 13.8 12.1 10.9 10.2 11.7 12.9 13.5

Maruti Suzuki 2235 7,397 7,970 8 Accumulate 187.1 140.0 249.1 298.1 39.5 52.8 29.7 24.8 25.7 33.7 18.3 14.7 11.9 8.5 13.9 15.1

SML ISUZU 8 569 449 (21) Sell (14.5) (92.2) (31.9) 22.4 NA NA NA 25.4 77.7 NA 65.1 10.5 -5.3 -41.7 -19.9 14.6

TVS Motor 263 554 659 19 Accumulate 13.1 12.9 21.2 26.6 42.1 43.0 26.1 20.8 20.8 18.6 13.3 10.9 17.9 15.7 22.3 23.8

Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja 128 751 866 15 Accumulate 38.7 37.9 42.3 48.1 19.4 19.8 17.7 15.6 11.2 10.9 9.4 8.3 18.9 16.4 16.4 16.9

Apollo Tyres 129 226 296 31 Buy 8.3 15.1 13.2 17.4 27.1 15.0 17.2 13.0 10.1 6.0 6.4 5.6 4.8 9.0 7.2 9.0

Asahi India 90 369 387 5 Accumulate 6.3 5.5 10.2 13.4 58.3 67.3 36.2 27.5 24.6 23.1 18.1 15.4 12.0 9.5 15.8 18.0

Balkrishna Ind 499 2,583 2,119 (18) Sell 48.9 59.8 69.9 83.7 52.8 43.2 37.0 30.9 35.6 24.9 22.1 18.4 19.5 20.9 20.9 21.7

Bharat Forge 352 756 915 21 Accumulate 9.2 3.9 19.9 27.3 82.1 195.7 38.0 27.7 36.6 47.1 22.0 17.1 8.0 3.4 15.9 18.9

CEAT 54 1,326 1,456 10 Accumulate 64.0 115.4 86.7 104.0 20.7 11.5 15.3 12.8 10.2 6.9 7.7 6.9 8.1 13.9 10.2 11.3

Exide Ind 153 180 224 25 Buy 9.7 9.0 9.7 11.3 18.5 20.1 18.6 16.0 11.1 9.9 8.9 7.3 8.4 7.6 7.4 7.8

Jamna Auto 36 91 105 16 Buy 1.2 1.8 3.3 4.8 75.4 49.5 27.4 19.0 33.0 27.2 17.6 12.2 9.3 13.3 21.5 26.6

JBM Auto 25 526 505 (4) Buy 14.6 10.6 20.0 29.7 36.0 49.4 26.3 17.7 13.4 15.8 12.1 9.0 10.2 6.9 12.0 15.8

Lumax Auto 10 140 208 49 Buy 7.3 6.9 9.7 13.0 19.2 20.2 14.5 10.8 11.5 10.4 8.4 6.3 10.7 9.7 11.9 14.3

Lumax Ind 14 1,476 1,661 13 Accumulate 76.9 19.4 51.1 84.6 19.2 76.0 28.9 17.5 10.5 17.3 11.7 9.2 17.8 7.0 13.3 17.5

Minda Corp 28 121 152 25 Accumulate 6.0 3.9 4.3 7.6 20.3 30.9 28.2 16.0 11.3 12.8 12.7 8.3 13.9 8.2 8.2 12.7

RK Forging 34 1,047 960 (8) Accumulate 2.9 8.8 42.7 60.1 354.9 NA 24.5 17.4 21.4 19.4 11.0 9.0 0.9 2.2 5.8 7.2

Sandhar tech 17 279 441 58 Accumulate 9.5 9.6 17.1 24.5 29.5 29.1 16.3 11.4 9.9 10.4 7.1 5.4 9.0 8.8 12.9 14.9

Sterling Tools 7 197 274 39 Buy 8.1 6.8 9.3 13.7 24.4 29.0 21.1 14.3 12.5 12.7 9.8 7.0 9.8 7.6 9.6 13.0

Subros 22 344 379 10 Accumulate 8.5 7.2 12.0 17.6 40.3 48.0 28.6 19.5 12.0 14.0 10.5 7.6 7.8 6.0 9.5 12.6

Suprajit Eng 46 332 377 14 Accumulate 9.4 10.2 12.9 15.8 35.3 32.5 25.7 21.0 22.0 20.1 16.4 13.9 16.1 15.5 17.4 19.4

Varroc Eng. 45 295 357 21 Accumulate 0.0 -38.8 -2.2 18.7 NA NA -132.8 15.7 9.4 18.7 8.8 5.6 0.0 -21.0 -1.1 9.1

NRB Bearings 14 140 179 28 Buy 3.3 5.6 9.0 11.2 42.3 25.1 15.6 12.5 18.6 14.5 9.8 7.9 6.9 11.1 15.9 17.5

GNA Axles 20 945 721 (24) Accumulate 24.6 32.9 43.9 48.1 38.5 28.7 21.5 19.7 17.4 15.2 11.3 10.1 12.4 14.6 16.9 16.0

Craftsman Auto 45 2,116 2,711 28 Buy 21.7 46.1 71.5 113.2 97.4 45.9 29.6 18.7 13.7 11.7 10.0 7.6 6.5 11.5 14.6 19.9

Source: DART, *target achieved

DART RATING MATRIX

Total Return Expectation (12 Months)

Buy > 20%

Accumulate 10 to 20%

Reduce 0 to 10%

Sell < 0%

DART Team

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Amit Khurana, CFA Head of Equities [email protected] +9122 4096 9745

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