Danny Oppenheimer Kirsten Thorpe. Any modality of communication between persons or groups. Materials that hold data in any form or that allow data to.

Danny Oppenheimer

Kirsten Thorpe

Any modality of communication between persons or groups.

Materials that hold data in any form or that allow data to pass through them.

Information Packages.

1) Attempts to directly report psychological findings

2) Attempts to use psychological findings to dispense advice, argue policy, or other applications of findings.

3) Attempts to describe or portray human behavior using “folk psychology”.

1) All psychologists are clinicians

Truth: Only about 55% of psychologists are clinicians (APA, 1993).

2) All experimental psychologists study rats.

Truth: I’ve never handled a live rat.

3) Experimental psychology is typically unethical.

Truth: Although many past experiments have been unethical, stringent standards apply to modern experimental psychology

4) Psychology only tells us things we already know.

Truth: Pay attention to discrepancies between research and media “folk-psychology” during this class, and make your own judgment.

Google search stats:

Misleading Ads: 158,000

Misleading Advertisement: 136,000

Misleading Statistics: 336,000

Media Distortion: 322,000

“There are lies, damned lies, and statistics” -- Disraeli

1

4

3

4

3222

27

Mean = 4.8

Median = 3

Mode = 2

Correlation measures the strength of a relationship between two variables.

Positive Correlation

0 < R < 1

No Correlation

R = 0

Negative Correlation

-1 < R < 0

Correlation does not imply causation

“75% of kids who smoke have parents who smoke.

Funny how kids pick up our little habits.”

Correlations can be misleading!!!

A person wearing red is 129 times more likely to be gored by a charging bull!

But what is the base rate?

Mean:

275 minutes

Mean:

53 minutes

98% of Americans have internet access available.

Sprint has a “Nationwide Network”

The average temperature in Oklahoma City over the past 100 years is 63.4 degrees. (and each year has been within 1 degree of that average)

Consumer spending on prescription drugs has doubled since 1980.

85% of all car accidents occur within 10 miles of the home.

10 times as many people die each year by plane crashes than train crashes.

During the Spanish-American war, the death rate for soldiers was 9 per 1000. The death rate for civilians in New York City was 16 per 1000.

1 minute 2 minutes

Fluffy O’s Cereal Gives a body Energy!!

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5??

60

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61.5

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62.5

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Earnings

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100

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

Earnings

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10

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40

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

Even when the scale is fine, graphs can still be deceptive

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Even when the scale is fine, graphs can still be deceptive

As you can see, Bob earns substantially more than Joe

Joe’s income Bob’s Income

Is it really a two to one ratio that’s being displayed?

Percent of US income going to federal taxes

Percent of US income going to federal taxes

Tylenol is used by 90% doctors for their own aches and pains!

So are Asprin, Ibuprofen, and Bayer!

When Dewey was elected Governor in 1942, the minimum teacher’s salary in some districts was as low as $900 per year. Upon Governor Dewey’s recommendation… the Legislature in 1947 appropriated $32,000,000 out of state surplus to provide an increase in teacher’s salaries. As a result, the minimum salaries of teachers in New York City range from $2500 to $5325.

1) Stanford is the #1 program in psychology

2) I am the only (and therefore #1) student at Stanford studying Decision Errors

Therefore: I am the top student studying Decision Errors in the country.

Group A:I II III IV V6.2 6.4 7.6 6.1 6.2

Group B:I II III IV V6.1 6.3 2.2 6.0 6.2

Is Group A superior to Group B?

The average American sleeps 8 hours a night

The average American sleeps 8.2 hours a night

The average American sleeps 8.2339 hours a night

“Currently there are 4 million Americans with Alzheimer’s Disease. By the year 2020 it could be 20 million.”

This new calling plan can save you 30% over AT&T’s rates!

Obfuscation Studies

Obfuscation: deliberately increasing the complexity of a piece of writing without changing the content

Have you ever changed the words in an academic essay to make the essay sound more valid or intelligent by using complicated language? 75%

When you write an essay, do you turn to the thesaurus to choose words that are more complex to give the impression that the content is more valid or intelligent? 66%

Step 1:Take a normal string of text

Step 2: Replace every noun, verb, and adjective with the longest thesaurus entry.

•No replacement if original word is longest

•If multiple words are of equal length choose highest alphabetically

•Change ‘a’ ‘an’ etc. to keep grammar

“The primary academic goal I have set for myself is to use my potential to the fullest. Your college represents an institution abundant with academic resources. During my undergraduate years I intend to use those resources to obtain knowledge about my career field, and I hope to fully explore my career field.”

“The principal educational aspiration I have established for myself is to utilize my capabilities to the fullest. Your institution characterizes an institution plentiful with educational resources. Throughout my undergraduate existence I anticipate to exercise those resources to acquire information about my occupational discipline, and I hope to completely investigate my occupational discipline .”

3 Levels of Obfuscation:

1) No obfuscation

2) Some obfuscation (every 3rd word)

3) High obfuscation (every word)

2 Levels of Quality:

1) Good Essay

2) Bad Essay

130 Stanford University Undergraduates

1) Read Essay

2) Rate Likelihood of acceptance

3) Rate author’s intelligence

4) Rate clarity of passage

5) Manipulation check to ensure reading

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Bad Good

NoneLowHigh

Would you accept the applicant?

3 Levels of Obfuscation:

1) No obfuscation

2) Some obfuscation (every 3rd word)

3) High obfuscation (every word)

6 Levels of Essay:

Applicants to graduate study in English

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

NoneLowHigh

Would you accept the applicant?

1) Control for incorrect usage of wordsUse different translations of same text (Descartes Meditation V)

2) Control for priorsUse different attributions of authors

2 Levels of Obfuscation:

1) Easy Translation

2) Sophisticated Translation

2 Levels of Attribution:

1) Descartes

2) Anonymous

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Desartes Anonymous

EasyHard

Intelligence Ratings

1) Obfuscation is a common strategy

2) Obfuscation doesn’t make you look smarter

3) Obfuscation won’t get you into Stanford