DAILY I FOREX REPORT 15 TH JULY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
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US Dollar Plummets, Euro Breaks $1.30 As Bernanke Boosts S&P 500
US Dollar and Fed Policy - Perception vs. Reality
The US Dollar tumbled in overnight trade, losing as much as 1.5 percent on average against its top counterparts, as Asian markets responded to yesterday’s “dovish” commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The central bank chief pushed back against speculation about a near-term reduction of QE, reminding investors that the “overall thrust” of policy remains highly accommodative. Bernanke added that inflation and job growth trends signal that more Fed stimulus is needed.
Minutes from June’s FOMC policy meeting seem to illuminate the impetus behind the Fed Chairman’s tone. Officials debated including specific language about the fate of the asset purchase program in the policy statement but ultimately felt it was too difficult to “convey succinctly the desired information.” As such, much of the discussion focused on how Bernanke ought to explain the central bank’s intentions in the press conference following the sit-down, with most participants stressing that he should:
Make clear that any changes to the asset purchase program remained highly conditional on an ongoing assessment of the economic outlook.
Strike a clear distinction between “tapering” and “tightening”, stressing that there is likely to be a significant time lag between the end of QE and an increase in the benchmark lending rate.
In retrospect, those FOMC members who feared that “stating an intention to slow the pace of asset purchases...might be misinterpreted as…the initial step toward exit from the [Fed’s] highly accommodative policy stance” proved correct.Indeed, the mass liquidation of QE-linked bets in the aftermath of June’s FOMC meeting suggests the markets interpreted the Fed’s posture as having shifted significantly toward the hawkish side of the spectrum.
With that in mind, today’s comments from Mr Bernanke represent not an about-face in the Fed’s thinking but an attempt to realign the markets’ perceptions. The reality of the Fed’s intentions has not changed, but volatility in asset prices since Bernanke spoke shows that the markets’ perception of those intentions is undergoing significant reassessment.
More of the same seems likely to ahead. European shares are on racing higher in early morning trade and S&P 500 futures are up by nearly a full percentage point as traders cheer the prospect of longer-lasting Fed support. A quiet economic cal
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3100 TGT 1.3120/1.3140
SL 1.3070
SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.50
TGT 98.30/98.10 SL 98.80
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5185 TGT 1.5205/1.5225
SL 1.5165
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 54 (BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDJPY CHART
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ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>46(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
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ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>44(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>42(BEARISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun Jul 7
23:50
JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAY)
Medium -¥906.7B -¥902.1B -¥818.8B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY)
Low ¥623.3B ¥600.0B ¥852.7B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUN)
Low 2.2% 2.3% 2.1%
23:50
JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUN)
Low 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%
23:50
JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (MAY)
Low 58.1% 91.6% 100.8%
23:50
JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (MAY)
Low ¥540.7B ¥600.0B ¥750.0B
Mon Jul 8
01:30
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)
Low -1.8%
-2.5%
02:35
NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Low 0.0%
7.5%
02:35
NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.0%
0.7%
02:35
NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (JUN)
Low 3685.8
3686.9
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUN)
Medium -8.0%
-9.0%
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUN)
Medium 53.0 55.5 55.7
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUN)
Medium 53.6 55.7 56.2
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate (JUN)
Medium 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
05:45
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUN)
Medium 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
06:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (MAY)
Medium 13.1B 17.8B 18.0B
06:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (MAY)
Low 11.2B 14.8B 16.7B
06:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
Low -2.4% 0.1% 1.4%
06:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
Low 1.7% 0.0% 1.2%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
07:15
CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (1Q)
Medium 3.0% 1.4% 1.7%
08:30
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUL)
Medium -12.6 -11.4 -11.6
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)
Medium -1.0% -0.5% 0.9%
10:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
Low -1.0% -0.5% 2.0%
12:30
CAD Building Permits (MoM) (MAY)
Low
-5.0% 10.5%
13:00
EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
High
13:00
EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks in Brussels
Medium
13:00
IMF Releases Euro-Area Article IV Statement
Medium
14:30
CAD Bank of Canda Senior Loan Officer Survey (2Q)
Medium
-5.0 -5.8
14:30
CAD Business Outlook Future Sales (2Q)
Medium
30 24
19:00
USD Consumer Credit (MAY)
Medium
$12.500B $11.058B
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
22:00
NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey (2Q)
Medium
23
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
0.6% 0.5%
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUN)
Medium
0.6%
23:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (JUN)
Medium
8% 5%
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JUN)
Low
1.9% 1.8%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUN)
Low
3.4% 3.4%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUN)
Low
2.9% 2.8%
Tue
Jul 9 00:00
NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUN)
Low
7.1%
01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
High
2.5% 2.1%
01:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
High
-2.6% -2.9%
01:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (JUN)
Medium
-1
01:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (JUN)
Low
-4
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN P)
Medium
-7.4%
07:15
CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAY)
Medium
3.3%
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY)
Medium
-1.5% -0.6%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY)
Medium
-1.5% -0.5%
08:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY)
Medium
-£2600 -£2579
08:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (MAY)
Medium
-£3480 -£3414
08:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (MAY)
Medium
-£8485 -£8224
08:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY)
Low
0.2% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAY)
Low
0.4% -0.2%
11:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUN)
Low
94.7 94.4
12:15
CAD Housing Starts (JUN)
Medium
188.0K 200.2K
14:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUN)
High
0.6%
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (MAY)
Low
3757
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAY)
Medium
0.8% 0.0%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.0% 0.1%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Low
1.2% 0.6%
Wed
Jul 10
CNY New Yuan Loans (JUN)
High
800.0B 667.4B
CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JUN)
Medium
$27.80B $20.43B
CNY Aggregate Financing (JUN)
Low
1400.0B 1190.0B
CNY Exports (YoY)% (JUN)
Low
3.9% 1.0%
CNY Foreign Reserves (JUN)
Low
$3485.0B $3440.0B
CNY Imports (YoY)% (JUN)
Low
6.2% -0.3%
CNY Money Supply - M0 (YoY) (JUN)
Low
10.5% 10.8%
CNY Money Supply - M1 (YoY) (JUN)
Low
10.8% 11.3%
CNY Money Supply - M2 (YoY) (JUN)
Low
15.2% 15.8%
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL)
Medium
4.7%
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)
Low
102.2
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)
Low
45.7
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUN F)
High
1.9% 1.9%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN F)
High
1.8% 1.8%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUN F)
Medium
0.1% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUN F)
Medium
0.1% 0.1%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 5)
Low
-11.7%
14:00
USD Wholesale Inventories (MAY)
Low
0.3% 0.2%
14:00
USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAY)
Low
0.6% 0.5%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 5)
Low
-10347K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 5)
Low
-2418K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 5)
Low
-1719K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 5)
Low
2.0%
18:00 LIVE
USD Fed Releases Minutes from Jun 18-19 FOMC Meeting
High
20:10
USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Economic Policy in Boston
High
22:00
NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic (JUN)
Low
4.7%
22:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)
Medium
59.2
22:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.3%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 5)
Medium
-¥965.9B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 5)
Medium
-¥38.9B
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAY)
Medium
2.8% -1.1%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 5)
Low
¥261.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 5)
Low
¥479.7B
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAY)
Low
1.7% -8.8%
Thu
Jul 11
JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
High
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JUL 11)
High
JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JUL 11)
Medium
¥270T
01:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL)
Medium
2.3%
01:30 LIVE
AUD Employment Change (JUN)
High
0.0K 1.1K
01:30 LIVE
AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN)
High
5.6% 5.5%
01:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUN)
Medium
-5.3K
01:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUN)
Low
6.4K
01:30
AUD Participation Rate (JUN)
Low
65.2% 65.2%
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (JUN)
Low
8.33
06:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low
-0.4%
06:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Low
-0.1%
06:30
JPY Kuroda Holds Post-Meeting Press Conference
High
08:00
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
High
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
Medium
2.0%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 6)
Medium
340K 343K
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAY)
Low
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (JUN 29)
Low
2958K 2933K
12:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.0% -0.6%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Low
0.5% -1.9%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 5)
Low
72
15:00
USD Fed's Tarullo Testifies on Regulation to Senate Banking
Low
18:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (JUN)
Medium
$40.0B
Fri
Jul 12
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for July
High
USD Fed's Plosser and Bullard Speak in Wyoming
Low
01:30
AUD Home Loans (MAY)
Medium
2.2% 0.8%
01:30
AUD Investment Lending (MAY)
Low
1.1%
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAY)
Low
$A49.4B
01:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAY)
Low
$A21.6B
01:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAY)
Low
-0.9%
03:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN)
Low
69.1%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F)
Medium
-1.0%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY F)
Low
1.6%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F)
Low
2.0%
08:30
JPY Construction Output (YoY) (MAY)
Low
-1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)
Medium
-1.4% -0.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
Low
-0.3% 0.4%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
1.6% 1.7%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
Medium
2.1% 1.7%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.1% 0.1%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
Low
0.5% 0.5%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (JUN)
Low
1.1%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (JUN)
Low
2.0%
13:00
CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (JUN)
Low
155.39
13:55 LIVE
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P)
High
85.0 84.1
21:15
USD Fed's Williams Presents a Monetary Policy Paper in Vancouver
Low
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