DAILY I FOREX REPORT 13 TH MARCH 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
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DAILY I FOREX REPORT 13
TH
MARCH 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Uncertainty Over the Euro-Zone Crisis/Recovery Leaves Euro at a Key Level
Dollar Eases Off Multi-Year High as S&P 500 Marches Higher
Euro Eyes Italian Bill Sale, Pound Looking For Recovery Spark
Pound Plummets to a New 2.5-Year Low on Declining Industrial Production
THE TAKEAWAY: UK industrial production declines 1.2% in January -> Signs worsen for Q1 economic growth -> Pound sets a new 2.5-year low
The British Pound set a new 2.5-year low as UK manufacturing production and industrial production disappointed expectations. Industrial production fell 1.2% in January, worse than expectations for a 0.1% rise in production and down from December’s 1.1% rise. Industrial production fell 2.9% from January 2012, according to the UK Office for National Statistics.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3035 tgs
1.3055/1.3075 sl 1.3005
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
96.75 tgt 96.95/97.15
SL 96.45
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.4830 tgt
1.4810/1.4790 SL
1.4860
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3032
HIGH: 1.3038
LOW: 1.2991
CLOSE: 1.3008
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD REVERSAL
TREND : BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.000(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 96.63
HIGH: 96.69
LOW: 95.64
CLOSE: 95.76
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => -0.05( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>30(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.4904
HIGH: 1.4916
LOW: 1.4831
CLOSE: 1.4855
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .002( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 34(BEARIISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8743
HIGH: 0.8777
LOW: 0.8718
CLOSE: 0.8757
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>-.003(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>62(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.6740
HIGH: 82.7910
LOW: 82.6290
CLOSE: 82.6990
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>0.79(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>50(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon
Mar 11
JPY Japanese Parliament May Vote on BoJ Governor Nominations
High
00:01
GBP Lloyds Employment
Confidence (FEB)
Low -44
-45
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)
Medium -21.5%
-26.4%
07:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JAN)
Medium 13.7B 13.9B 12.1B
07:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (JAN)
Low 11.3B 10.5B 20.2B
07:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 3.3% 0.7% -1.5%
07:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
07:00
EUR German Labor Costs Workday Adj (YoY) (4Q)
Low 2.9%
2.9%
07:00
EUR German Labor Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ) (4Q)
Low 0.8%
0.2%
08:15
CHF Retail Sales
(Real) (YoY) (JAN) Medium 1.9%
4.7%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)
Medium -0.9% -0.9% -0.9%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)
Medium -2.8% -2.7% -2.7%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price
Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.1% -0.2%
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-0.2% 1.4%
ECONOMIC CALENDER
23:50
JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
-5.5
23:50
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium
-10.3
Tue
Mar 12 00:01
EUR Germany Second Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table)
Low
00:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB)
Medium
-1% -4%
00:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (FEB)
Low
-2
00:30
AUD NAB Business
Confidence (FEB) Medium
3
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (JAN)
Low
$A49.9B
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (JAN)
Low
$A22.4B
05:00
JPY Consumer Confidence (FEB)
Medium
43.3
07:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.3%
07:00
EUR German Wholesale Price Index
(YoY) (FEB)
Low
2.3%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB F)
Medium
0.6% 0.6%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB F)
High
1.5% 1.5%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)
Medium
0.8% 0.8%
07:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)
(FEB F)
High
1.8% 1.8%
09:00
EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB F)
Low
0.1%
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
(JAN)
Low
0.1% 1.1%
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.1% -1.7%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.0% 1.6%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.0% -1.5%
09:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Medium
-£8950 -£8897
09:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds)
(JAN)
Medium
-£3200 -£3201
09:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JAN)
Low
-£4500 -£4239
11:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (FEB)
Low
90.0 88.9
14:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (JAN)
Low
3617
15:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (FEB)
Medium
0.0%
18:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)
Medium
21:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.9%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR)
Medium
7.7%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)
Low
108.3
Wed Mar 13
AUD Australia Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
7%
NZD New Zealand
Manpower Survey (2Q) Medium
15%
00:30
AUD Home Loans (JAN)
Medium
0.5% -1.5%
00:30
AUD Investment Lending (JAN)
Low
-2.4%
00:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-2.7%
06:30
EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (4Q F)
Low
-0.2% -0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production
s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-0.1% 0.70%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-2.0% -2.3%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 8)
Low
14.80%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Low
0.5% 0.6%
12:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
Low
-0.6% -1.3%
12:30
USD Advance Retail Sales (FEB)
High
0.5% 0.1%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (FEB)
Medium
0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (FEB)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (FEB)
Low
0.2% 0.1%
14:00
USD Business Inventories (JAN)
Medium
0.4% 0.1%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 8)
Low
3833K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAR 8)
Low
257K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
(MAR 8)
Low
-616K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 8)
Low
-3830K
20:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (MAR 14)
High
2.50% 2.50%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
¥657.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAR 8)
Low
¥269.6B
Thu Mar 14
00:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)
Medium
2.2%
CNY China Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
14%
JPY Japan Manpower Survey (2Q)
Low
11
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (FEB)
Medium
-4.8% -7.3%
00:30
AUD Employment Change (FEB)
High
10.0K 10.4K
00:30
AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB)
High
5.5% 5.4%
00:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (FEB)
Medium
-9.8K
00:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (FEB)
Medium
20.2K
00:30
AUD Participation Rate
(FEB) Low
65.0% 65.0%
02:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)
Low
66.7%
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales
(YoY) (FEB)
Low
-5.4%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)
Low
1.0%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)
Medium
-5.1%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F)
Low
2.9%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB F)
Medium
08:30
CHF Swiss National
Bank Rate Decision (MAR 14)
High
0.00% 0.00%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
-0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)
(4Q)
Low
-0.7%
12:30
CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (4Q)
Low
12:30
USD Current Account Balance (4Q)
Low
-$112.8B -$107.5B
12:30
CAD New Housing
Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
2.3%
12:30
USD Producer Price
Index (MoM) (FEB) Medium
0.6% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.1% 0.2%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.7% 1.4%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 10)
Medium
340K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 3)
Low
3094K
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 8)
Low
-146
20:30
USD Fed Releases Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review
Low
21:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (FEB)
Medium
55.2
Fri Mar 15
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
Medium
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAR)
Low
121
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAR)
Low
2.3%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (FEB)
Low
-0.1%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (FEB)
Low
0.8%
09:30
EUR Itally General Government Debt
(JAN)
Medium
1988.4B
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.4% -1.0%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8% 1.8%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.3% 1.3%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)
Low
2.0%
12:30
USD Empire
Manufacturing (MAR) Low
8 10.04
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.4% 0.0%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
High
1.8% 1.6%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB)
High
2.0% 1.9%
12:30
USD Consumer Price
Index Core Index s.a. (FEB)
Medium
232.138 232.108
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB)
Low
230.28
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (JAN)
Low
$25.2B
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JAN)
Medium
$64.2B
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Low
1.3%
13:15
USD Industrial Production (FEB)
Medium
0.3% -0.1%
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (FEB)
Low
79.3% 79.1%
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (FEB)
Low
0.3% -0.4%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAR P)
Medium
78 77.6
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