D1407: Enrollment Management: A Game of Trade-Offs, Compromises, and Occasional Victories

D1407: Enrollment Management: A Game of Trade-Offs, Compromises, and Occasional Victories

Paul Hamborg, Enrollment Research Associates, TXBambi Burgard, Kansas City Art Institute, MOChristopher Ellertson, Trinity University, TXMichael Thorp, Millsaps College, MS

Change in Consumer BehaviorFrom 2000 to 2008:

• The household savings rate dipped below zero

• Median family income stagnated

• The consumer price index increased 27%

• Private college tuition increased 57%

Since 2008:

• Willingness and ability to borrow has decreased dramatically

• Current income is now the primary source for paying for

college

Family Financial CircumstancesFamily 1:

$6,000 EFCFamily 2:

$13,000 EFCFamily 3:

$22,000 EFCFamily 4:

$36,000 EFC

Annual Wages $70,000 $100,000 $135,000 $175,000

Monthly Net Income $4,270 $5,873 $7,605 $9,500

Housing Costs $2,255 $2,695 $3,179 $3,600

Transportation Costs $575 $950 $1,550 $1,550

General Expenses $1,485 $2,160 $2,735 $2,835

Total Expenses $4,315 $5,805 $7,464 $7,985

Net Income/Loss -$45 $68 $141 $1,515

What Happened in 2009?A Study of 902 Private Colleges

2008 2009 Change

Students 454,969 458,831 3,862 0.85% increase

Average Tuition $24,122 $25,177 $1,055 4.37% increase

Discount 38.6% 41.3% 2.7%

Net Revenue $14,397 $14,497 $38

Changes to the FAFSA in 2009As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed on

February 17, 2009, the Department of Education dramatically increased eligibility for federal Pell Grants

This goal was achieved in several important ways:

• Expanding Pell to a year-round program where students can draw grants for summer study

• Expanding eligibility for Pell by adjusting the underlying formulas that determine a student’s Expected Family Contribution

• A slight increase in the maximum Pell award and in the EFC cut-off value

What Happened in 2009?A Study of 902 Private Colleges

2008 2009 Change

Pell grants 106,797 133,811 27,014 25.2% increase

Percent with Pell 23.5% 29.2% 5.7%

Pell Amount $366,258,257 $543,099,737 $176,841,480 48.3% increase

Student Cost $11,750 $11,398 -$352 3.0% decrease

Merit Scholarships Versus Need-Based Aid

• Most merit-based scholarships contribute toward meeting student need as defined by the FAFSA

• We have a valid and reliable measure of academic profile, while we do not have a valid and reliable measure of need

• Actual need versus perceived need has become a more significant issue

11 Year Average: 640.2

2009 2010 2011

New Students 282 214 228

Tuition $26,240 $27,814 $29,482

Net Revenue Per Student $5,934 $8,064 $10,323

Discount Rate 77.4% 71.0% 65.3%

Average ACT 25.4 26.5 26.4

One-Year Retention Rate 76% 88% -

Millsaps College Enrollment Results, 2009 - 2011

YearDiscount

Rate2007 48%2008 51%2009 50%2010 52%2011 53%

Question 1

Enrollment management has become increasingly data driven over the past decade.

How have each of you integrated data-driven decision making into your admissions and financial aid

operations?

Question 2

Approaches to conducting search and managing prospect and inquiry pools has been evolving rapidly over the past

few years.

What tactics are each of you taking to increase the number of applicants who have a strong likelihood

of attending your institution?

Question 3

All Presidents, especially new ones, want it all: more students, more revenue, lower discount, and

higher quality students.

How do you educate them, and the rest of the campus community,

on the realities of enrollment management in 2011?