Current and emerging trends in Natural Health · Current and emerging trends in Natural Health. ... Non-store and commission-based retailing (2%) Specialised food ... Furniture, floor

Hayley Turner

Account Director - IRI NZ

Natural Products NZ Summit

March 2017

Current and emerging trends in Natural Health

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Who are IRI?

• 11 North America offices

• 12 Europe offices

• 3 Asia-Pacific offices

• 1 Africa office

• ISO-Certified Global

Analytics Center of

Excellence serving clients in

over 60 countries

• Global Operations Center in

India IRI offices

CCR and Intage partnerships

Analytics and Global panel coverage via Worldpanel

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What do we do?

Collate Cleanse Process

Grocery

Pharmacy

Liquor

Petrol

Route

Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4

What do we do?

Collate Cleanse Process

Grocery

Pharmacy

Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5

Today

Landscape The Market Trends

Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6

Today

Landscape The Market Trends

77

Total Retail

$81.1b +4.8%

Grocery Pharmacy

$13.0b +3.0% $588m +0.03%

Stats NZ June 2016

88

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Non-store and commission-based retailing (2%)

Specialised food (3%)

Liquor (3%)

Recreational goods (3%)

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware, textiles (4%)

Electrical and electronic goods (5%)

Accommodation (6%)

Clothing, footwear, and accessories (6%)

Department stores (7%)

Pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing (8%)

Hardware, building, and garden supplies (11%)

Food and beverage services (15%)

Supermarket and grocery stores (29%)

Retail Total Sales by Industry, Growth vs YA

4.8%

Stats NZ June 2016

99

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Non-store and commission-based retailing (2%)

Specialised food (3%)

Liquor (3%)

Recreational goods (3%)

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware, textiles (4%)

Electrical and electronic goods (5%)

Accommodation (6%)

Clothing, footwear, and accessories (6%)

Department stores (7%)

Pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing (8%)

Hardware, building, and garden supplies (11%)

Food and beverage services (15%)

Supermarket and grocery stores (29%)

Retail Total Sales by Industry, Growth vs YA

4.8%

Holiday Spending

$6.4b

Visitor Arrivals

3.5m

+11.8%

Data to year ending Dec 16

#1

1.4m

+6.2%

Holiday Visitors

1.8m

+16.2%

+10%

Stats NZ June 2016

1010

Online Retail Spending – 2016 vs LY

42%

+12%

+29%

58%

Split Growth

Vs.

56p

Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11

Today

Landscape The Market Trends

1212

Non-Food TOP 5 | Grocery

T Gcy

$13.0B+3.0%

1 2 3 54

Natural Health

-1.8%+4.3%

$ G

ro

wth

%MAT to 01.01.17

MAT to 03.01.16

+10.0%

MAT to 01.01.17

$ G

ro

wth

%

1313

TOP 5 | Pharmacy

1 2 3 54

T Pmcy

$588M+0.03%

Natural Health

+2.1%

$ G

ro

wth

% MAT to 01.01.17

MAT to 03.01.16

+19.5%

+2.8%

MAT to 01.01.17

1414

Total Defined ScannedNatural Health

Combined Grocery + Pharmacy

63%

62% 63%

38%

+

+2.9%

+2.1%

+4.3%

+$5.9M

+$2.7M

+$3.2M

Combined Pharmacy Grocery

Natural Health Growth

% $ Growth Actual Growth $(M)

+2.9%

$ G

ro

wth

%

MAT to 01.01.17

MAT to 03.01.16

+15.7%

1515

$1.72M

$0.11M

$3.80M

$0.89M $0.85M

-$1.39M

$1.38M

$0.48M

-$0.09M -$0.04M

-2.0M

-1.0M

0.0M

1.0M

2.0M

3.0M

4.0M

5.0M

Cold, Flu &Immunity(16.1%)

General Multis(9.1%)

Joints (9.1%) Digestion (9%) Energy (7%) General Fish(6.8%)

MuscularPain/Cramps

(6.6%)

Insomnia (3.5%) Pregnancy (3.5%) Iron Deficiency(3.3%)

Natural Health - Top 10 segments +

1616

Natural Health – Joints +

#3 largest Natural Health segment

Clinic trial based evidence

DistributionPR

+24.9%value growth

63.3%of T. Natural Health

growth21%Share of T. Joints

1717

Natural Health – Cold, Flu & Immunity +

#1 largest Natural Health segment

38% of segment

84% of growth

+5.6%value growth

29.8%of T. Natural Health

growth

1818

Natural Health – General Fish Oil +

-$1,388k

-$627k

-$395k-$259k

-$70k -$37k

-1600000

-1400000

-1200000

-1000000

-800000

-600000

-400000

-200000

0

TotalGeneral

FishKrill Oil(17%)

Fish Oil(78%)

Salmon Oil(1.3%)

Krill Oil +Fish Oil(0.2%)

Cod LiverOil (4%)

$ Decline | National

#6 largest Natural Health segment

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

65.00

70.00

0.0

500000.0

1000000.0

1500000.0

2000000.0

2500000.0

3000000.0

3500000.0

4000000.0

4500000.0

5000000.0

Krill Oil decline

Dollars Price ($/Unit) Num Dist %

Contributing

to 45%of segment

decline

Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19

Today

Landscape The Market Trends

2020

Trends

2121

Trends

Copyright © 2017 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22

321

Turmeric - Natural Health

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2014 2015 2016 2017

Total Turmeric Supplements $ sales

+

3

6

7

13

SKU count

Turmeric Spices Segment

+25%Growth

2323

Trends

2424

Personal Care

Beverages

Organic Growth

T. Defined*

ORGANIC

+ 23.5%

14%

6%

Other12%

Chilled44%

Baby Needs15%

Baking & Cooking

9%

2525

Personal Care

Beverages14%

6%

Other12%

Chilled44%

Baby Needs15%

Baking & Cooking

9%

+ 77.4%Organic Fresh White Milk

Organic

- 8.7%Rest

Chilled44%

*price $/litre

5.6%

Organic Growth

2626

Personal Care

Beverages14%

6%

Other12%

Chilled44%

Baby Needs15%

Baking & Cooking

9%

Baby Needs15%

Organic Baby Food

40%

+ 14.9%Organic

+5.2%Rest

Organic Growth

2727

Personal Care

Beverages14%

6%

Other12%

Chilled44%

Baby Needs15%

Baking & Cooking

9%

Beverages14%

UHT Milk & Cream

Tea Coffee

Organic Growth

$3

1k

$1

94

k

$5

16

k

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Kombucha | Dollars Sales Grocery | 2016 - 2017

Exponential growth

2828

Trends

2929

3030

Transparency“Do what you say you’re going to do”

“The consumer desire to know how and where food was grown or made.

The consumer expectation for clarity, accuracy and usefulness of information from the companies that produce and sell it. ”

3131

TransparencyWho’s Promising what?

9

6

Have a main Website Menu option for “Sustainability”, “Environment” or “Social Responsibility”

Have an indirect link or article concerned with these themes

3232

TransparencyWho’s Delivered?

“Brand transparency is directly related to industry trust, company loyalty and

long-term revenue”

+ 28%

+ 20%

3333

Landscape The Market Trends

34