Cumulative carbon and the ethical case for mandatory CCS Myles Allen Environmental Change Institute & Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship School of Geography and the Environment & Department of Physics University of Oxford [email protected]
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Cumulative carbon and the ethical case for mandatory CCS
Myles Allen Environmental Change Institute &
Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship School of Geography and the Environment & Department of Physics
Past emissions, fossil and land-use change Estimated conventional reserves
Must be sequestered or recaptured to meet 2oC goal
Cumulative emissions & fossil carbon reserves
The real goal of climate policy: to get from A to B
A
B
Climate Mitigation with No New Taxes: SAFE carbon
Sequestered Adequate Fraction of Extracted (SAFE) carbon: carbon from a supply that ensures we never exceed the atmospheric capacity.
So, what is an “Adequate Fraction”? S = Net carbon sequestered / carbon extracted C(t) = Cumulative emissions since policy is adopted C0 = Atmospheric capacity at the time policy is adopted
If all carbon sources were SAFE, we would never exceed the atmospheric capacity.
The real goal of climate policy: to get from A to B
A
B
Suppose the fossil fuel industry decides to defend its share of world energy supply
But paying for all that sequestration implies a carbon price, passed on to consumers
So they might consume less, making the carbon price lower – but without compromising policy
Comparing SAFE carbon with a carbon-price-driven scenario: IEA “BLUE Map”
S=40% in 2050 under IEA BLUE Map scenario
The best that can happen if you rely on a carbon price: very rapid deployment of CCS post-2040
Shell “Mountains” scenario
!
Comparing SAFE carbon with Shell’s “New Lens” scenarios
1 TtC
SAFE carbon could start aiming for an optimistic (high) total budget without sacrificing credibility
Who might introduce mandatory sequestration? A consumer-nation-led scenario
“Europe” recognises – The need for CCS – The fact that a carbon price won’t deliver it – The political unsustainability of tax- or rate-payer-funded
CCS projects in times of high fossil fuel margins. “Europe” mandates all fossil fuel suppliers to
sequester a steadily increasing fraction of the carbon they supply = “SAFE carbon”.
“Europe” demands all imported goods are certified manufactured with SAFE carbon.
Problem: Europe really has to care about climate change (“pure” climate policy: no co-benefits).
Who might introduce mandatory sequestration? A producer-nation-led scenario
The rebranded “Organisation for the Protection of the Environment and Climate” recognises – The shale gas revolution is depressing oil and coal prices – A successful UNFCCC will depress fossil energy demand – Carbon taxes and ETS’s are eroding their rents
Agree that all fossil carbon production above a safe limit must be offset with sequestration.
Costs of sequestration are nominally borne by producers, justifying fierce sanctions against non-participants.
Short-term impact: increased fossil energy prices.
Who owns the “unemittable” carbon?
Who might introduce mandatory sequestration? A consumer-industry-led scenario
The global airline industry recognises – Environmental levies are depressing profit margins – Levies can only get higher if their goal is to reduce demand – Long-term future requires CCS (no space for bio-fuels)
Agrees that jet fuel should be made with SAFE carbon: a steadily increasing fraction of its carbon content is offset with sequestration.
Demands exemption from all climate levies, ETS etc. Demands competing industries follow suit. Could SAFE carbon be ICAO’s “Market-Based
Mechanism”?
Unexpected climate champions?
Thank you
And thanks to David Frame, Niel Bowerman, Bob Hahn, Alex Lorenz, Jon