CTIA Measuring Wireless Today

CTIACTIA

Measuring Wireless TodayCTIA’s Semi-Annual Survey

-Measuring the How Many and How Much of the Wireless Industry

Dr. Robert F. RocheCTIA Research

CTIA’s Semi-AnnualWireless Industry “Data Survey”

• Conducted semi-annually since January 1985 -surveys facilities-based service providers (licensees)

and lays down the benchmarks for the wireless industry:

– how many revenue-generating subscribers– how much service revenue

– how much cumulative capital investment– how many operational cell sites/switches

– how many direct employees– average local monthly bill

– usage measurements

CTIA’s Semi-AnnualWireless Industry “Data Survey”

– Does not track price per minute– Does not track “Cost per Gross Add”

– Does not track prospective investment– Does not track specific pricing plans (e.g., One-rate type offerings)

– Does not maintain carrier-specific data, only aggregate industry data

– Nonetheless, collected data does provide basis for variety of benchmarks, both direct and derived benchmarks / ratios.

Revenue Generating Subscribership

We ask carriers to report:

• Total Beginning and ending revenue-generating subscribers,

• Digital Beginning and ending revenue-generating subscribers,

• Beginning and ending prepaid subscribership,

• Gross additions, and

• Total disconnects for the six month survey period.

Reported Wireless Subscribers 1985 - 2001

91,600

203,600340,213

480,032649,825777,978

1,196,6491,607,597

2,051,1412,688,793

3,465,9444,316,6865,188,055

6,074,7777,199,422

8,564,11110,310,034

12,050,822

14,716,02517,883,306

22,501,37826,454,826

31,413,734

35,230,98340,688,000

46,239,97352,473,996

57,587,40765,817,507

72,939,725

80,408,38989,095,529

109,674,358103,641,514

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

Jan-85Jun-85

Dec-85Jun-86Dec-86

Jun-87Dec-87

Jun-88Dec-88Jun-89

Dec-89Jun-90

Dec-90Jun-91Dec-91

Jun-92Dec-92

Jun-93Dec-93

Jun-94Dec-94Jun-95

Dec-95Jun-96

Dec-96Jun-97Dec-97

Jun-98Dec-98

Jun-99Dec-99Jun-00

Dec-00Jun-01

203,600

500,000

883,778

1,608,697

2,691,793

4,368,686

6,380,053

8,892,535

13,067,318

19,283,306

28,154,415

38,195,466

48,705,553

60,831,431

76,284,753

97,035,925

118,397,734

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Estimated Wireless Subscribership: June 1985 - June 2001

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01

Derived Analog Subscribers Reported Digital Subscribers

Total Service Revenues

The “total service” revenues we track are composed of:

• Local service revenues,• Roaming revenues,• Prepaid revenues, and• Vertical service charges.

• Toll revenues have only been tracked since December 1998, and are tracked separately from the traditionally defined “total service” revenues.

$176,231$306,197

$360,585

$462,467$479,514

$672,005

$886,075$1,073,473

$1,406,463

$1,934,132$2,126,362

$2,422,458

$2,653,505

$3,055,017

$3,633,285$4,189,441

$4,819,259

$6,075,916

$6,519,031

$7,710,891

$8,749,625

$10,331,614

$11,194,247

$12,440,724

$13,134,551$14,351,082

$15,286,660

$17,846,515

$19,368,304

$20,650,185

$24,645,365$27,820,655

$30,905,721

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

Jun-85

Jun-86

Jun-87

Jun-88

Jun-89

Jun-90

Jun-91

Jun-92

Jun-93

Jun-94

Jun-95

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Six-Month Revenues: June 1985 - June 2001(in Thousands)

$89,331

$121,368$173,199

$192,350

$263,660

$302,329

$401,325

$436,725

$537,146

$587,347

$774,266

$778,116

$1,052,666

$1,120,337

$1,422,233

$1,314,943

$1,465,992

$1,392,440

$1,581,765

$1,584,891

$1,915,578

$1,922,416

$2,163,001

$1,971,625

$1,911,356

$1,727,058

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

Dec-88

Jun-89

Dec-89

Jun-90

Dec-90

Jun-91

Dec-91

Jun-92

Dec-92

Jun-93

Dec-93

Jun-94

Dec-94

Jun-95

Dec-95

Jun-96

Dec-96

Jun-97

Dec-97

Jun-98

Dec-98

Jun-99

Dec-99

Jun-00

Dec-00

Jun-01

Six-Month Roamer Revenues: June 1985 - June 2001(in Thousands)

Average Local Monthly Bill

We request carriers report:

• The average local monthly bill, which is based on:– Local service revenues,– Including charges for vertical services in the local serving area.

• This is exclusive of:– Toll and roaming revenues,– Equipment-related revenues,– Taxes, fees, or pass-through surcharges.

• This is based only on active revenue-generating subscribers.

Average Local Monthly Bill 1993 - 2001

$67.31

$61.49$58.65

$56.21

$52.45 $51.00$48.84 $47.70

$43.86 $42.78$39.88 $39.43 $40.24 $41.24

$45.15 $45.27 $45.56

$0.00

$15.00

$30.00

$45.00

$60.00

$75.00

Jun-93 Dec-93 Jun-94 Dec-94 Jun-95 Dec-95 Jun-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01

Cumulative Capital Investment

We request carriers report:

• Total cumulative capital investment, including• Cumulative System/Network capital investment,• Cumulative Non-system/non-network capital investment.

• This is exclusive of the cost of licenses (whether bought at public or private auction, or otherwise acquired), and excludes intangibles.

• This is not reduced by accumulated depreciation.

$588,751

$1,140,163

$1,724,348

$2,589,589

$3,675,473

$5,211,765

$7,429,739

$9,276,139

$12,775,967

$16,107,921

$21,721,711

$26,707,046

$37,454,294

$50,178,812

$66,782,827

$76,652,358

$99,728,965

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$90,000,000

$100,000,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Cumulative Capital Investment: June 1985 - June 2001(in Thousands)

Cell Sites

We request carriers report:

• The total number of commercially operational cell sites as of the end of the survey period.

• Non-operational cell sites (e.g., those prior to service initiation) are not to be reported.

• We do not request carriers report these cell sites broken down by technological flavor – i.e., GSM v. TDMA v. CDMA v. AMPS.

• We do not track the number of “towers” nor do we adjust the figures for non-responding companies or for co-location.

599

1,194

1,732

2,789

3,577

4,768

6,685

8,901

11,551

14,740

19,844

24,802

38,650

57,674

74,157

95,733

114,059

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Cell Sites in Commercial Use: June 1985 - June 2001

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

Jun-85

Jun-86

Jun-87

Jun-88

Jun-89

Jun-90

Jun-91

Jun-92

Jun-93

Jun-94

Jun-95

Jun-96

Jun-97

Jun-98

Jun-99

Jun-00

Jun-01

Rep

orte

d Su

bscr

iber

s

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Reported C

ell Sites

Reported Cell Sites Reported Subscribers

Reported Subscriber and Cell Site Trends

Minutes of Use and Average Length of Call

We request carriers report:

• Total local billable minutes of use and billable calls;• Total roaming billable minutes of use and billable calls;• Total prepaid billable minutes of use and billable calls (a subset of local

minutes of use and calls).

• This makes possible calculation of total reported industry billable MOUs, as well as:

– the average length of call for each subset, – a straight average MOUs per reported subscriber for the period (based on

reported MOUs and average reported subscribership).

Total Reported Billable Minutes of Use

0

25,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

75,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

125,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

175,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

225,000,000,000

Jun-92

Dec-92

Jun-93

Dec-93

Jun-94

Dec-94

Jun-95

Dec-95

Jun-96

Dec-96

Jun-97

Dec-97

Jun-98

Dec-98

Jun-99

Dec-99

Jun-00

Dec-00

Jun-01

0

40,000,000

80,000,000

120,000,000

160,000,000

200,000,000

240,000,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Subs

crib

ers

0

50,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

Reported MO

Us

Subscribers Total MOUs

Wireless Demand and Usage Trends

Carrier Employment

We request carriers report:

• The total number of direct carrier employees,

• The total number of direct sales employees,

• The total number of other direct employees.

• We do not further segment the reported employee base, nor do we track sales agents or their employees.

1,697

3,556

5,656

9,154

13,719

18,973

25,545

30,595

36,501

45,606

60,624

73,365

97,039

113,111

141,929

159,645

186,317

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Direct Employment by Wireless Service Providers:June 1985 - June 2001