Wireless Internet Caucus - CTIA - The Wireless Association

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Wireless Metrics

Dr. Robert F. RocheCTIA-The Wireless Association

March 21, 2011

Wireless Internet Caucus

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Metrics Focus

CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey

• Sample: US Wireless Carriers• Measures: Voice, Data, SMS & Text, MMS,

ARPU, Devices, Subscribers• 2H2010 reported results reflect 95.5% of total

estimated subscriber connections

Review Survey Metrics

Report on Latest Survey Results

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Review Cross-Carrier MetricsSurvey includes metrics related to:• Revenues:

Requests total data revenues, as well as:– Total revenues from data-only plans using dongles or laptop-embedded

modems for the six month period. – Total revenues for data services on Smartphones and wireless-enabled PDAs

for the six-month period ending.– Total revenues from data service subscriptions for the six-month period.

• Traffic: measures such asRequests SMS / Text message (including IM) and MMS message volumes.Requests number of MB on the networks for the six month period.

• Usage & Capability measures such as:Requests number of data-capable devices; SMS-capable devices; web-capable

devices; PDAs / Smartphones; and wireless-enabled laptops, netbooks, tablets, and wireless modems on networks.

Request for number of machine-to-machine (M2M) units active on networks – not currently reportable.

Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey

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Six-Month & Annual Wireless Service Revenues

INDUSTRY• Total six-month industry revenues = $80.8 billion 2H10

–up 5.4% from $76.7 billion in 2H09.• Total 2010 annual industry revenues = $159.9 billion,

–up 4.8% from $152.6 billion for year 2009.

DATA ONLY• Total six-month wireless data revenues = $25.4 billion,

–up 15% from $22.1 billion in 2H09.• Total 2010 annual wireless data revenues = $50.1 billion,

–up 20.8% from $41.5 billion for year 2009.


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$24,645,365

$27,820,655

$30,905,721

$34,410,514

$36,707,086

$39,801,101

$41,384,171

$46,239,922

$49,275,671

$52,845,539

$55,689,208

$57,849,013

$60,450,669

$65,006,156

$67,887,668

$70,981,636

$72,728,764

$75,355,406

$75,848,319

$76,703,534

$79,109,620

$80,820,028

$105,657

$105,559

$175,270

$315,532

$411,454

$493,250

$699,764

$1,158,300

$2,041,090

$2,559,441

$3,790,579

$4,791,204

$6,460,560

$8,756,174

$10,532,277

$12,696,252

$14,784,297

$17,536,852

$19,464,909

$22,045,717

$24,786,529

$25,357,482

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$90,000,000

Jun-00

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Thou

sand

s

Total Wireless Industry Revenues Data Service Revenues

Six-Month Total Wireless Service and Data Revenues


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Annual Wireless Data Revenues Are Up 20.8%


$904,704 $1,858,064

$4,600,531

$8,581,783

$15,216,735

$23,228,529

$32,321,149

$41,510,625

$50,144,011

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

in T

hous

ands

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99.9%

99.8%

99.6%

99.6%

99.4%

99.1%

98.9%

98.8%

98.3%

97.5%

95.9%

95.2%

93.2%

91.7%

89.3%

86.5%

84.5%

82.1%

79.7%

76.7%

74.3%

71.3%

68.7%

68.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-99

Dec-99

Jun-00

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Non-Data ARPU Data ARPU

Wireless Data as a % of ARPU Trended


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Traffic Measures increase year-over-year

–SMS / Text messaging (includes IM):• Monthly volume of 187.7b up 23% year-over-year (from 152.7b)• Six-month volume of 1.068T up 30% year-over-year (from 822.8b)• Annual volume of 2.052T up 31.3% year-over-year (from 1.563T)

–MMS:• Monthly volume of 4.3b down 15% year-over-year (from 5.1b)• Six-month volume of 24.5b up 1.3% year-over-year (from 24.2b)• Annual volume of 56.6b up 64% year-over-year (from 34.5b)

–Voice:• Six-month volume of 1.104T down 1.4% year-over-year (from 1.119T), Annual volume of 2.241T down 1.5% year-over-year (from 2.275T)


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Traffic Measures increase year-over-year

–Data Volume

• Six-month volume of MB on networks: 226.5 billion MB, up 110% year-over-year from 107.8 billion MB as of YE 2009.

• Six-month volume of MB from Smartphones / PDAs on networks: 135.2 billion MB, up 304% from 33.44 billion MB as of YE 2009.

• Six-month volume of MB from laptops, tablets, netbooks and wireless broadband modems on networks: 73.3 billion MB, up 26.8% from 57.82 billion MB as of YE 2009.


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0

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

140,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

180,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10

Reported Traffic Up 38% Year-Over-Year

Traffic Measures –Monthly SMS / Text Traffic (includes IM)


Over 187 billion messages per month

0

200,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

600,000,000,000

800,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,200,000,000,000

Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10

Reported Six-Month Traffic Grows 30% Year-Over-Year

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Traffic Measures –Six-Month Texting Traffic (includes IM)


Almost 2.1 trillion text messages in 2010Up 31% from 2009

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0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10

Reported MMS Traffic in Final Month of Survey Down 15% Year-over-Year

Traffic Measures –Monthly MMS Traffic


Over 4 billion MMS per month

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0

5,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

15,000,000,000

20,000,000,000

25,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

35,000,000,000

Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10

Reported Six-Month MMS Traffic Up 1.3% Year-Over-Year, but . . .

Traffic Measures –Six-Month MMS Traffic


Annual MMS of 56.6 billion Up 54% over 2009

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585 675820 858 941 1,014 1,104 1,122 1,081 1,156 1,119 1,138 1,103

2533

49 6594

147

216385

620

740 823983 1,069

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2

3

3

6

9

1024

32 25

$53.78 $52.19 $50.70 $49.39 $50.01 $49.81 $50.14 $49.51 $49.87 $48.89 $48.37 $48.79 $48.12

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10

Billi

ons

of M

essa

ges

/ Min

utes

Semi-annual Voice Traffic Semi-annual Text Traffic Semi-annual MMS Traffic Total ARPU (including toll & roaming)

Semi-Annual Traffic Measures –Voice & Data


In latest 6 months:1.1+ billion MOU1.06+ billion text messages24+ billion MMS

1,4951,798

2,119 2,203 2,275 2,241

81

159

363

1,005

1,5632,052

1

3

6

15

35

57

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Bill

ions

of M

OU

s / M

essa

ges

Minutes and Messages as a Measure of Wireless Usage

MOUs Text Messages MMS Messages

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Available Annual Traffic Measures –Voice & Data


Excludes traffic generated by web-browsing, game-play, and content upload / downloads

108

161

227

0

50

100

150

200

250

December 2009 June 2010 December 2010

Billi

ons

Six Month MB Volumes 16

Total Reported MB of Traffic – 6 Month Measures


Total data traffic grew 110% year-over-year

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Consumer Metrics –Total Estimated Subscriber Connections


Connections = 96% Population Penetration

109,478,031

119,880,066

140,766,842

158,721,981

182,140,362

207,896,198

233,040,781

255,395,599

270,333,881

285,646,191

302,859,674

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10

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Consumer Metrics –Devices and Users

Based on sequential questions:•289.2 mm total reported subscriber connections (overall survey)

•247.2 mm SMS-capable devices (up from 238.4mm)– on data survey respondents’ networks

•270 mm data-capable handsets (up from 257mm)– on data survey respondents’ networks

•242 mm web-capable handsets (up from 238.4mm) – on data survey respondents’ networks


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Consumer Metrics –Devices and Users

Based on sequential questions:•200.1 mm SMS customers (up from 181.8 mm)

– on respondents’ networks

•140.5 mm MMS customers (up from 118.5 mm)– on respondents’ networks

•78.2 mm Smartphones & PDAs (up from 49.8 mm)– on respondents’ networks

•13.6 mm wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless modems (up from 11.9 mm) – on respondents’ networks


2020

Another View of Consumer Metrics – Devices


96%

93%

85%

84%

27%

5%

ALL

Data

SMS

WEB

Smartphones

Laptops / modems

Based on sequential questions:• 289.2 mm total reported subscribers (overall survey) (302.8 mm– Estimated total)(Year-to-Year change)

• 270 mm data-capable handsets – (up 13.5 million=up 5.3%)

• 247.2 mm SMS-capable devices – (up 8.8 million=up 3.7%)

• 242 mm web-capable handsets – (up 3.6 million=up 1.5%)

• 78.2 mm Smartphones & PDAs – (up 28.4 million=up 57%)

• 13.6 mm wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless broadband modems – (up 1.7 million=up 14.2%)

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Note, while we ask for the following categories of devices:• SMS-capable devices• Web-capable devices• Data-capable devices• Smartphones & PDAs• Wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless modems

and• Machine-to-Machine units [not reportable at this time]

•We don’t ask for “connected devices” as such, thus our figures for the above subcategories won’t necessarily square with any independently-reported “connected device” counts.

Other Metrics-related Observations

Wireless Internet Caucus - CTIA - The Wireless Association

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