CRP 566 Demography - Iowa State Universityecon2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/crp274/swenson... · •Demography is the statistical study of human populations and sub-populations. It involves

CRP 566 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION

Dave SwensonDepartment of Economics

College of Agriculture and Life SciencesIowa State University

OBJECTIVES• Understanding of the role of demographic analysis and

information for private, government, and broad community uses

• How demographic data are collected and compiled• The types of information that help put basic demographics into

perspective

WHAT DO WE USE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR?

• Constitution: Article 1,Clause 3: Apportionment of Representatives and taxes• Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the

several States … according to their respective Numbers, ….

• The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

WHAT DO WE USE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR?

• Track social and economic change or progress• Allocate public resources and plan for the future• Important component of all social science:

• Demography is the statistical study of human populations and sub-populations. It involves the study of the size, structure, and distribution of these populations, and spatial and/or temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging and death.

WE ARE, HOWEVER, INTERESTED IN MUCH MORE

• We also want to know about a population’s circumstances. Their …• Economic well-being and sources of income• Ethnic or cultural characteristics (not religion)• Nativity• The characteristics of their housing• How they get to work• How they get along

• These types of data are collected using survey information

HOW DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ARE COLLECTED• U.S. Census Bureau

• The Census: Decennial count (SF 1) is mostly limited to age, sex, characteristics of households and families, race, Hispanic origin. It’s first use is in the apportionment of U.S. representatives, as well as our state and local legislative districts.

• American Community Survey. A rolling and continuous survey of the U.S. population that allows conclusions about the population, either using 5, 3, or one year averages

CONTINUED• The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S.

Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):• is the primary source of labor force statistics for the population of the United

States.

• is the source of numerous higher-profile economic statistics, including the national unemployment rate

• provides data on a wide range of issues relating to employment and earnings.

• collects extensive demographic data that complement and enhance our understanding of labor market conditions in the nation overall, among many different population groups, in the states and in substate areas.

OTHERS -- SURVEYS• Universities – General Social Surveys at the University of Michigan

Social Research Center.• Universities – the Iowa Farm Life Poll• Gallup, Roper, Pew and other long-term pollsters• Private firms, especially marketers, special interest groups, and

political organizations• State and local governments to fill information gaps or to deal with

extra-ordinary circumstances – local school districts often conduct special surveys

PUTTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA INTO PERSPECTIVE

• Population characteristics• Age, sex, race, ethnicity, income, nativity, household composition,

mobility, education, workforce participation• More detailed understanding of the composition of households and

families• Income

• Marital status

• Presence and age of children

• Poverty

• Housing occupancy

IMPORTANT COMPLEMENTS TO STANDARD DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

• Vital Statistics• Births – natural gain

Plus characteristics of birthing population and birth outcomes

• Deaths – natural decline• (Births - Deaths = Natural Change)• Fertility – plus characteristics of the birthing population• Marriage and divorce – population stability• Morbidity and mortality

BIGGEST NEW ACTOR: THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

• Continuous rolling survey – replaces the “long form”• Looks at us in great detail on an ongoing basis• Provides the foundation for a better understanding of socio-

economic attributes• Great confidence in findings for larger populations, but much less

confidence as the studied population declines• Is an average of several years (5, 3, 1). The more the years, the

greater the confidence, but the farther the data are from now.• Possibility of mischief and misinformation from misuse

THE ACS HAS BEEN ASSAILED IN CONGRESS IN RECENT YEARSThe sponsor of legislation to rid us of the ACS last year, Florida Republican Representative Daniel Webster proclaimed: The ACS “… is not a scientific survey; it’s a random survey!”

In fact, the ACS provides some of the most accurate, objective and granular data about the economy and the American people, in something approaching real time. Ideally, Congress would use the information to make good decisions. Or economists and social scientists draw on the resource to offer better suggestions. Businesses also depend on the ACS's county-by-county statistics to inform investment and hiring decisions.

As the great Peter Drucker had it, you can't manage or change what you don't measure.

Republicans do themselves no favors by targeting a useful government purpose.

Wall Street Journal

0%

10%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Metropolitan Large Urban Small Urban Rural

Average CV

County Urban‐Rural  Continuum  (BEALE) Code

Average Coefficient of Variation for the College‐Educated Population by County Type

County Poverty Rates: Published Estimates

Estimated Rate2005-2009

3.5 - 11.4

11.5 - 14.1

14.2 - 20.0

20.1 - 51.9

County Poverty Rates: Using Tests of Significance

Estimated Rate2005-2009

Higher than regional average

Not significantly different

Lower than regional average

WHERE CAN I FIND 2010 CENSUS DATA?

• Census Bureau• State Data Center of Iowa• Other sites – usually at universities or consortiums

http://www.statsamerica.org/

ISU – DEPT. OF ECONOMICSCENSUS PROFILES

City and county-level profiles based on 2010 Census data are available at the ISU Econ site: http://www.icip.iastate.edu/

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU• American FactFinder• A very wide and potentially highly detailed set of variables from the

2010 census and from subsequent ACS estimates

http://factfinder2.census.gov

STATE DATA CENTER

http://www.iowadatacenter.org

http://www.stats.indiana.edu/uspr/a/us_profile_frame.html

USA COUNTIES IN PROFILE

STATE OF IOWA

9.7%

4.1%

10.1%

-2.3% -2.3%

-5.4%

U.S. State of Iowa Metro Larger Urban Small Urban Rural

Iowa Population Changes, 2000 to 2010 by Levels of Urbanization

1980 TO 1990

1 DOT = 10 PEOPLE

1990 TO 2000

1 dot = 10 people

2000 TO 2010

1 dot = 10 people

2010 TO 2012

1 dot = 10 people

3%

14%

-3%

32%

15%

-1%

5%

-8%

25%

4%6%

9%

0%

29%

12%

-8%-5%

-15%

19%

-1%

-9%

-2%

-17%

22%

-1%

-11%

-6%

-20%

19%

-7%

Under 20 20 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and up

Iowa Population Changes in Key Age Groups, 2000 to 2010

U.S.State of IowaMetroLarger UrbanSmall UrbanRural

INTERGENERATIONAL EXHIBIT: BIRTHS PER 1,000 POPULATION

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2.9%5.4%

10.4%

-1.7% -1.6%-5.3%

-9.0%

-18.1%

-10.0%

-25.4%-27.9%

-30.4%

U.S. State of Iowa Metro Large Urban Small Urban Rural

Percentage Change in Young Adults, 2000 to 2010, by Level of Urbanization

25 to 34 35 to 44

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projected Populations in Selected U.S. Age Groups, 2012 Through 2020

Age 16 to 24 Age 65 and older

(2,604)

1,679

11,345

Age 16 to 24 Age 25 to 54 Age 55 and older

Projected 2010 to 2020 U.S. Labor Force Change by Selected Age Groups (in 1,000s)

-13,900

56,961

-117,203

-74,142

106,740

Age 16 to 24 Age 25 to 44 Age 45 to 64 Age 16 to 64 Over Age 65

Projected Change in Iowa Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010 to 2020

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100

Projected Iowa Population Changes 2010 to 2020

US Percent IA Percent

IOWA POPULATION PYRAMIDS 2000 AND PROJECTED TO 2030

IOWA’S DEPENDENCY RATIO – PER 100 PERSONS AGES 18 TO 64, THERE WERE OR THERE WILL BE … ELDERLY OR YOUTH DEPENDENTS

0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

90.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Old Age (3) Youth (2)