CRed carbon reduction Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, University.

CRedcarbon reduction

Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Energy Futures Hard Choices Ahead11th October 2005

Hard Choice Ahead

• Evidence of Climate Change

• Energy Options for the Future

• Hard Choices Ahead

• Future carbon dioxide emissions

• Some conservation issues

• A way forward

• Conclusions

Future Global Warming RatesConcentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS affect

this

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Difficult Choices Ahead

Nuclear Generating Capacity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Ins

talle

d C

ap

ac

ity

(M

W)

Projection

Actual

Wholesale Price of Electricity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 13 25

(p p

er k

Wh)

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

2003 2004 2005

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

Historic and Future Demand for Electricity

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Electricity Options for the FutureLow Growth Scenario

Capped at 420 TWh• 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990

• 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990

• 68 % increase in gas consumption

( Gas Scenario) cf 2002• Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025• Mix option: 11% increase in gas

consumption (cf 2002)

High Growth Scenario

Business as Usual• 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990

• 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990

• 257% increase in gas consumption

( Gas Scenario) cf 2002

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

Government Response

• Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050

• Will require unprecedented partnership activity in

local communities to ensure on track by 2020s

• (– but no indication of how this will be

undertaken)

“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’

- Energy White Paper: February 2003

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Some facts:

A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging

up to 20 kg CO2 a year

Standby on television > 60 kg per year

Filling up with petrol (~40 litres ~£37 for a full tank)

--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

Involve the local Community

Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades

• Need to move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy

It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear? Can we avoid new Nuclear?

• Yes: • but only if expansion of Renewables is at a greater rate than even

Government Targets • and everyone embraces Energy Conservation

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."