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Course of Action Analysis Purpos Purpos e e Define course of action Define course of action (COA) analysis and its (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis role in the crisis action planning process action planning process Discuss the associated Discuss the associated task steps task steps Identify the products Identify the products resulting from COA resulting from COA analysis analysis Provide lessons learned Provide lessons learned from previous exercises from previous exercises and operations and operations References References JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 10 Sep 01 Operations, App B, 10 Sep 01 JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97 Training Guide, 15 Apr 97 Multinational Planning Augmentation Team Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) (MPAT)
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Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Mar 30, 2015

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Page 1: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

PurposePurpose Define course of action (COA) Define course of action (COA)

analysis and its role in the crisis analysis and its role in the crisis action planning processaction planning process

Discuss the associated task Discuss the associated task stepssteps

Identify the products resulting Identify the products resulting from COA analysisfrom COA analysis

Provide lessons learned from Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and previous exercises and operationsoperations

ReferencesReferences JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations,

App B, 10 Sep 01App B, 10 Sep 01 JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning

Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master

Training Guide, 15 Apr 97Training Guide, 15 Apr 97

Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamMultinational Planning Augmentation Team(MPAT)(MPAT)

Page 2: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process

I I

Mission AnalysisMission AnalysisI I

Mission AnalysisMission Analysis

CCRRIISSIISS

CCRRIISSIISS

IISituationSituation

DevelopmentDevelopment

IISituationSituation

DevelopmentDevelopment

IIIICrisisCrisis

AssessmentAssessment

IIIICrisisCrisis

AssessmentAssessment

IVIVCourse of Course of

ActionActionSelectionSelection

IVIVCourse of Course of

ActionActionSelectionSelection

VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning

VVExecutionExecutionPlanningPlanning

WarningWarningOrderOrder

WarningWarningOrderOrder

PlanningPlanningOrderOrder

PlanningPlanningOrderOrder

AlertAlertOrderOrderAlertAlertOrderOrder

ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder

ExecuteExecuteOrderOrder

OPORD OPORD & &

Deployment Deployment Data BaseData Base

OPORD OPORD & &

Deployment Deployment Data BaseData Base

VIVIExecutionExecution

VIVIExecutionExecution

And/orAnd/orAnd/orAnd/or

IIICourse of

ActionDevelopment

IIIICourse of ActionCourse of Action

DevelopmentDevelopment IIIIII

Analysis ofAnalysis ofCourses of ActionCourses of Action

IIIIII

Analysis ofAnalysis ofCourses of ActionCourses of Action

IVIV

Comparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action

IVIV

Comparison of OwnComparison of OwnCourses of ActionCourses of Action VV

Commander’sCommander’sDecisionDecision

VV

Commander’sCommander’sDecisionDecisionCommander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process

Key Planning Concepts:Key Planning Concepts:– Supported Strategic Commander’s (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operationalSupported Strategic Commander’s (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operational

(MNF) focus(MNF) focus

– Orientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threatOrientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threat

– Protection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravityProtection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravity

– Phasing of operationsPhasing of operations

Page 3: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis“ Gaming the COAs ”“ Gaming the COAs ”

Courses of Action AnalysisCourses of Action Analysis“ Gaming the COAs ”“ Gaming the COAs ”

The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each

proposedproposed friendlyfriendly COA as though executed against the most COA as though executed against the most

probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can

include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR

missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander

considered the most significant and influential aspects of the considered the most significant and influential aspects of the

situation.situation.

The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each

proposedproposed friendlyfriendly COA as though executed against the most COA as though executed against the most

probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can

include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR

missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander

considered the most significant and influential aspects of the considered the most significant and influential aspects of the

situation.situation.

Page 4: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation situation

Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:

– By time phasingBy time phasing– Geographic locationGeographic location– Functional eventFunctional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons downConsider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down

Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation situation

Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as:

– By time phasingBy time phasing– Geographic locationGeographic location– Functional eventFunctional event– Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons downConsider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down

Analysis of COAs:Analysis of COAs: Key Points Key Points

Analysis of COAs:Analysis of COAs: Key Points Key Points

Page 5: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Consider crisis termination issues: think Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and threat consequences of our action, and counteractioncounteraction

Conclude with: Conclude with: – Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitabilityRevalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability– Determine additional requirementsDetermine additional requirements– Make modificationsMake modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COAList advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Consider crisis termination issues: think Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and threat consequences of our action, and counteractioncounteraction

Conclude with: Conclude with: – Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitabilityRevalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability– Determine additional requirementsDetermine additional requirements– Make modificationsMake modifications– List advantages and disadvantages of each COAList advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Analysis of COAs: Analysis of COAs: Key Points (cont’d)Key Points (cont’d)Analysis of COAs: Analysis of COAs: Key Points (cont’d)Key Points (cont’d)

Page 6: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Task StepsTask StepsTask StepsTask StepsGather theTools

Gather theTools List

AssumptionsListAssumptions

Critical Events& Decision PointsCritical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethodAnalysisMethod

RecordingMethodRecordingMethod

Analyze & AssessAnalyze & Assess

RiskAssessmentRiskAssessment

RevalidateRevalidateCourse of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

Page 7: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Gather the ToolsGather the ToolsGather the ToolsGather the Tools

Friendly COAsFriendly COAs The most probable & most dangerous enemy or The most probable & most dangerous enemy or

threat COAsthreat COAs Combined operations area referenceCombined operations area reference Representation of friendly force distribution and Representation of friendly force distribution and

probable threatsprobable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditionsRepresentation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-

Counteraction matrixCounteraction matrix Identify, list, and review existing limitationsIdentify, list, and review existing limitations

Friendly COAsFriendly COAs The most probable & most dangerous enemy or The most probable & most dangerous enemy or

threat COAsthreat COAs Combined operations area referenceCombined operations area reference Representation of friendly force distribution and Representation of friendly force distribution and

probable threatsprobable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditionsRepresentation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization MatrixSynchronization Matrix Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-

Counteraction matrixCounteraction matrix Identify, list, and review existing limitationsIdentify, list, and review existing limitations

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 8: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

List AssumptionsList AssumptionsList AssumptionsList Assumptions List the assumptions made during List the assumptions made during

mission analysis mission analysis

Validity:Validity:– Is the assumption necessary to Is the assumption necessary to

continue planning?continue planning?

– Will the result change without the Will the result change without the

assumption?assumption?

– Logical?Logical?

– Realistic?Realistic?

List the assumptions made during List the assumptions made during

mission analysis mission analysis

Validity:Validity:– Is the assumption necessary to Is the assumption necessary to

continue planning?continue planning?

– Will the result change without the Will the result change without the

assumption?assumption?

– Logical?Logical?

– Realistic?Realistic?

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 9: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Example: Planning AssumptionsCoalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan)

Example: Planning AssumptionsCoalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan)

Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)

Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational

TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours

Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission

No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission

Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)

Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs)

Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational

TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours

Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission

No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission

Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)

Page 10: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

List Known Critical Events and List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Decision Points

List Known Critical Events and List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Decision Points

Critical eventsCritical events are essential tasks that require are essential tasks that require

detailed analysisdetailed analysis

Decision pointsDecision points identify decisions the commander identify decisions the commander

must make to ensure timely execution andmust make to ensure timely execution and

synchronizationsynchronization

TimeTime available for analysis affects length of the available for analysis affects length of the

critical events listcritical events list

Critical eventsCritical events are essential tasks that require are essential tasks that require

detailed analysisdetailed analysis

Decision pointsDecision points identify decisions the commander identify decisions the commander

must make to ensure timely execution andmust make to ensure timely execution and

synchronizationsynchronization

TimeTime available for analysis affects length of the available for analysis affects length of the

critical events listcritical events list

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 11: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis Select Method of Analysis

Computer AssistedComputer Assisted– Integrated theater management modelIntegrated theater management model– Tactical warfare modelTactical warfare model– Joint conflict modelJoint conflict model

ManualManual– Deliberate timeline analysisDeliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasingOperational phasing– Critical eventsCritical events

Computer AssistedComputer Assisted– Integrated theater management modelIntegrated theater management model– Tactical warfare modelTactical warfare model– Joint conflict modelJoint conflict model

ManualManual– Deliberate timeline analysisDeliberate timeline analysis– Operational phasingOperational phasing– Critical eventsCritical events

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 12: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Select Technique to Record and Select Technique to Record and Display AnalysisDisplay Analysis

Select Technique to Record and Select Technique to Record and Display AnalysisDisplay Analysis

TechniquesTechniques– Narrative techniqueNarrative technique

– Sketch and note techniqueSketch and note technique

– Synchronization matrixSynchronization matrix

TechniquesTechniques– Narrative techniqueNarrative technique

– Sketch and note techniqueSketch and note technique

– Synchronization matrixSynchronization matrix

ConsiderationsConsiderations– Assets availableAssets available

– Time availableTime available

ConsiderationsConsiderations– Assets availableAssets available

– Time availableTime available

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 13: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Wargame the Operation and Wargame the Operation and Assess ResultsAssess Results

Wargame the Operation and Wargame the Operation and Assess ResultsAssess Results

Visualize the flow of Visualize the flow of operationsoperations

Consider CTF Consider CTF component capabilities component capabilities two echelons downtwo echelons down

““Action- Reaction/ Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence-Threat Consequence-Counteraction”Counteraction”

Visualize the flow of Visualize the flow of operationsoperations

Consider CTF Consider CTF component capabilities component capabilities two echelons downtwo echelons down

““Action- Reaction/ Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence-Threat Consequence-Counteraction”Counteraction”

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 14: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Identify role players, recorders, and facilitators Review assumptions, restated mission, and phases “Threat Cell”: Threat lay down (disposition) CPG leader – lead the “Friendly” actions C2 lay down and structure Forces (by component and function) Firepower - priority targets Friendly Intel action Support (C1, C4, C6, Medical, Engineering) Interagency actions Threat reaction to friendly actions For each phase or movement of forces, record the decision points,

critical information requirements, branches, sequels, risks, other key issues

Friendly counteraction to threat reaction

Conduct the Wargame: Conduct the Wargame: ChecklistChecklist

Conduct the Wargame: Conduct the Wargame: ChecklistChecklist

Course of Action Analysis

Page 15: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Synchronization MatrixSynchronization MatrixTIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT

PROBABLE THREAT

DECISION POINTS

CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER

OPN FIREPOWER

OPN PROTECTION

OPN INFORMATION

OPN INTEL

OPN SUPPORT

ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT

NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC

AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC

JSOTF

OTHERS

FUNCTION

JOINT

AREAS

COMPONENTS

D-DAY/H-HOUR

D + 1 D + 2

Page 16: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Simplified Sync MatrixSimplified Sync MatrixACTOR

CCTF

CARFOR

CNAVFOR

CAFFOR

CMARFOR

CSOTF

CPOTF

EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENTCOMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT

Page 17: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Sample Analysis WorksheetSample Analysis Worksheet

SEQ-UENCENUMBER

ACTION REACTION/THREAT/ ENEMY CONSE-QUENCES

COUNTER-ACTION

ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT

CCIR REMARKS

CRITICAL EVENT:

Page 18: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Large PopulationW/O Shelter increasessickness

Action/Reaction/CounteractionAction/Reaction/Counteraction

ACTION REACTION/CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION

1ST Priority isProvide MedicalSupport

Modify TPFDD/Deployment Movement Plans to allow CTF to provide shelter and prioritize medical care.

Page 19: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Advantages & DisadvantagesAdvantages & Disadvantages

Advantages Disadvantages

COA 1

- Rapid delivery- Meets critical needs

Modifications 1. Assign national forces by sector2. Lead nation provides comms w/robust LNOs

- Rough integration of forces- Rough transition - Complex organization- Not flexible at all- Adequate force protection

Page 20: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Results of AnalysisResults of AnalysisResults of AnalysisResults of Analysis Identification of advantages and disadvantages of Identification of advantages and disadvantages of

each friendly COAeach friendly COA

Identification of additional assets required (if any)Identification of additional assets required (if any)

Refinements or modifications to the COARefinements or modifications to the COA

Risks and actions to reduce the risk at eachRisks and actions to reduce the risk at each

geographic location or functional eventgeographic location or functional event

Adjustments to any established control measuresAdjustments to any established control measures

Identification of advantages and disadvantages of Identification of advantages and disadvantages of

each friendly COAeach friendly COA

Identification of additional assets required (if any)Identification of additional assets required (if any)

Refinements or modifications to the COARefinements or modifications to the COA

Risks and actions to reduce the risk at eachRisks and actions to reduce the risk at each

geographic location or functional eventgeographic location or functional event

Adjustments to any established control measuresAdjustments to any established control measures

Course of Action Analysis

Page 21: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont) Deployment/Movement requirementsDeployment/Movement requirements

Synchronization requirementsSynchronization requirements

Estimate of the duration of critical events as Estimate of the duration of critical events as

well as the operation as a wholewell as the operation as a whole

Required support from outside of the CTFRequired support from outside of the CTF

Requirements for logistic supportRequirements for logistic support

Clear picture of command relationshipsClear picture of command relationships

Branches and sequelsBranches and sequels

Deployment/Movement requirementsDeployment/Movement requirements

Synchronization requirementsSynchronization requirements

Estimate of the duration of critical events as Estimate of the duration of critical events as

well as the operation as a wholewell as the operation as a whole

Required support from outside of the CTFRequired support from outside of the CTF

Requirements for logistic supportRequirements for logistic support

Clear picture of command relationshipsClear picture of command relationships

Branches and sequelsBranches and sequels

Course of Action Analysis

Page 22: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Critical information required to support decision Critical information required to support decision pointspoints

Additional commander’s decision pointsAdditional commander’s decision points

Measures of effectiveness for each phaseMeasures of effectiveness for each phase

Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillancesurveillance

Identification of component tasksIdentification of component tasks

Task Organization requirementsTask Organization requirements

Critical information required to support decision Critical information required to support decision pointspoints

Additional commander’s decision pointsAdditional commander’s decision points

Measures of effectiveness for each phaseMeasures of effectiveness for each phase

Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillancesurveillance

Identification of component tasksIdentification of component tasks

Task Organization requirementsTask Organization requirements

Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)Analysis Results (cont)

Course of Action Analysis

Page 23: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Conduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk AssessmentConduct Risk Assessment

Identify risksIdentify risks

Assess risksAssess risks

Analyze acceptability of Analyze acceptability of riskrisk

Identify ways and means Identify ways and means of risk mitigationof risk mitigation

Identify risksIdentify risks

Assess risksAssess risks

Analyze acceptability of Analyze acceptability of riskrisk

Identify ways and means Identify ways and means of risk mitigationof risk mitigation

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 24: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

RevalidateRevalidateRevalidateRevalidate Suitable (Adequate)Suitable (Adequate):: Will the COA accomplish the Will the COA accomplish the

mission when carried out successfully, In other mission when carried out successfully, In other

words, is it aimed at the right objectives?words, is it aimed at the right objectives?

FeasibleFeasible:: Do we have the required resources and Do we have the required resources and

can those resources be made available in time?can those resources be made available in time?

AcceptableAcceptable:: Even though the COA will Even though the COA will

accomplish the mission and we have the required accomplish the mission and we have the required

resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible

losses (military, time, political, etc.)?losses (military, time, political, etc.)?

Complete:Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT- Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT-

WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?

Distinguishable:Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently Are the COAs sufficiently

different from each other?different from each other?

Suitable (Adequate)Suitable (Adequate):: Will the COA accomplish the Will the COA accomplish the

mission when carried out successfully, In other mission when carried out successfully, In other

words, is it aimed at the right objectives?words, is it aimed at the right objectives?

FeasibleFeasible:: Do we have the required resources and Do we have the required resources and

can those resources be made available in time?can those resources be made available in time?

AcceptableAcceptable:: Even though the COA will Even though the COA will

accomplish the mission and we have the required accomplish the mission and we have the required

resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible

losses (military, time, political, etc.)?losses (military, time, political, etc.)?

Complete:Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT- Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT-

WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW?

Distinguishable:Distinguishable: Are the COAs sufficiently Are the COAs sufficiently

different from each other?different from each other?

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theGather theToolsTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 25: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. Analyze the end state and transitions.Analyze the end state and transitions. Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect

at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint.constraint.

The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, and disadvantages, not to prescribe component not to prescribe component reactions.reactions.

During the COA analysis, the staff During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare must not compare friendly COAsfriendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against . The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.the enemy’s COAs.

Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first.Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. Analyze the end state and transitions.Analyze the end state and transitions. Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect

at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint.constraint.

The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, and disadvantages, not to prescribe component not to prescribe component reactions.reactions.

During the COA analysis, the staff During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare must not compare friendly COAsfriendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against . The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.the enemy’s COAs.

Page 26: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Course of Action Analysis:Course of Action Analysis:SummarySummary

Course of Action Analysis:Course of Action Analysis:SummarySummary

Evaluate each proposedEvaluate each proposed friendlyfriendly COA as though COA as though

executed against the most probable and most executed against the most probable and most

dangerous enemy or threat COAdangerous enemy or threat COA Conduct analysis in an orderly fashionConduct analysis in an orderly fashion Consider crisis termination issuesConsider crisis termination issues Think through action-consequences-reactionThink through action-consequences-reaction Analyze/wargame and record resultsAnalyze/wargame and record results RevalidateRevalidate

Evaluate each proposedEvaluate each proposed friendlyfriendly COA as though COA as though

executed against the most probable and most executed against the most probable and most

dangerous enemy or threat COAdangerous enemy or threat COA Conduct analysis in an orderly fashionConduct analysis in an orderly fashion Consider crisis termination issuesConsider crisis termination issues Think through action-consequences-reactionThink through action-consequences-reaction Analyze/wargame and record resultsAnalyze/wargame and record results RevalidateRevalidate

Course of Action Analysis

Gather theTools

List Assumptions

Critical Events& Decision Points

AnalysisMethod

RecordingMethod

Analyze& Assess

RiskAssessment

Revalidate

Page 27: Course of Action Analysis Purpose u Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process u Discuss the associated.

Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis Course of Action AnalysisCourse of Action Analysis

Multinational Planning Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamAugmentation Team

Multinational Planning Multinational Planning Augmentation TeamAugmentation Team

Questions?Questions?