COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • JANUARY 2018 160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY • Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk • Comprehension of the business environment • Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience UNITED STATES MEXICO ALGERIA ICELAND CCO MALI TUNISIA COSTA RICA PANAMA REPUBLIC HAITI CUBA GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA HONDURAS JAMAICA GUINEA SIERRA LEONE LIBERIA GHANA MAURITIUS ILE DE LA RÉUNION GROENLAND (DENMARK) BURKINA FASO SENEGAL CABO VERDE ITALY SPAIN PORTUGAL FRANCE GERMANY CANADA IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM BELGIUM BELIZE BRAZIL ARGENTINA PERU BOLIVIA VENEZUELA ECUADOR KENYA DR CONGO SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO ANGOLA NAMIBIA ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE COLOMBIA FRENCH GUYANA DOMINICAN GUYANA SURINAME BURUNDI UGANDA MALAWI ZIMBABWE BOTSWANA PARAGUAY CHILE URUGUAY TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO LIBYA EGYPT SUDAN MADAGASCAR NIGER CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC ETHIOPIA TANZANIA MAURITANIA GABON NIGERIA CHAD IVORY COAST TOGO SAO TOME & PRINCIPE RWANDA ERITREA CAMEROON BENIN CONGO SAUDI ARABIA PAKISTAN OMAN YEMEN IRAQ IRAN DJIBOUTI KUWAIT UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AFGHANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN INDIA TURKEY BANGLADESH ISRAEL JORDAN SYRIA LEBANON CYPRUS NEPAL KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN GEORGIA ARMENIA BAHRAIN QATAR UZBEKISTAN AZERBAIJAN HUNGARY POLAND ROMANIA BULGARIA BOSNIA GREECE AUSTRIA CZECH REPUBLIC SLOVAKIA NORWAY SWEDEN FINLAND UKRAINE LITHUANIA LATVIA ESTONIA BELARUS CHINA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES MORO SRI LANKA MYANMAR VIETNAM CAMBODIA LAOS MALAYSIA TAIWAN MALDIVES HONG KONG SINGAPORE THAILAND RUSSIA AUSTRALIA MONGOLIA JAPAN PAPUA NEW GUINEA NEW ZEALAND SOUTH KOREA GUINEA-BISSAU SERBIA MALTA PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES NORTH KOREA EQUATORIAL GUINEA TIMOR-LESTE SOUTH SUDAN MOLDOVIA GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND SWEDEN DENMARK PORTUGAL ND IRELAND LITHUANIA LATVIA ROMANIA POLAND UKRAINE BULGARIA HUNGARY SLOVAKIA CZECH REPUBLIC GREECE ALBANIA MONTENEGRO BOSNIA CROATIA SERBIA LUXEMBOURG ESTONIA BELARUS MALTA MOLDOVA BELGIUM NORWAY SLOVENIA MACEDONIA SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA NETHERLANDS C B C B B B C C A2 A2 A2 A2 C D A1 B B C B BUSINESS DEFAULTING RISK EXTREME E A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D VERY LOW LOW SATISFACTORY REASONABLE FAIRLY HIGH HIGH VERY HIGH UPGRADES DOWNGRADES C SAUDI ARABIA DOWNGRADE UPGRADES B GREECE BRAZIL A1 NETHERLANDS SINGAPORE A2 SOUTH KOREA A2 UKRAINE The country is heavily dependent on oil prices, which are still volatile. Internal political tensions are increasing and are in danger of damaging the business environment in the eyes of investors After an agreement reached with international creditors last June, household and business confidence is back. The weakness of the euro has strengthened the competitiveness of exports of goods, and the bounce- back in the tourism sector has benefited exports of services The recovery is mainly due to private consumption. Macroeconomic fundamentals become more favourable, such as the fall in the unemployment rate, low inflation and a solid monetary easing cycle In 2018, activity should continue to record a very dynamic growth rate, above 2%. Coface predicts a further decline in insolvencies (for the 5th year in a row) which could be 10% down In 2018, Singapore’s economic growth should be stable, driven by global demand Although down slightly, growth is expected to continue to be robust in 2018 thanks to exports and budget support In 2018 growth in the Ukraine is expected to increase (3%(f)) with the stabilization in both the situation in the eastern provinces and its relations with Russia. Under pressure from the IMF, reforms are moving forward even though the process is slow C B