Costs of the transport sector under low carbon scenarios · PDF fileCosts of the transport sector under low ... (public transport) WRI EMBARQ ... Global analysis and regional limitations

© OECD/IEA 2012

Global transport outlook to 2050

Jean-François Gagné

Head of Energy Technology Policy Division

International Energy Agency

Costs of the transport sector under low

carbon scenarios

Consultation on Sustainable Transport in the post-2015 Development Agenda

New-York, 26th of September

© OECD/IEA 2012 2

Content

� IEA mobility model (MoMo)

� ETP 2012 analysis

� CO2

mitigation potential

� Costing out the scenarios

� Infrastructure insights

� Road and rail infrastructure requirements to 2050

� Investment needs for a low carbon future

� Conclusions

© OECD/IEA 2012 3

IEA Mobility Model (MoMo)

� Global transport energy use, emissions and materials

� 29 regions

� Significant data on technologies and fuel pathways

� Robust historic data, including

� Historic stock, sales and fuel economies for 33 individual

countries (expansion to 68 countries in progress) for road

transport modes

� Cost of the transport system by adding up vehicles,

fuels and infrastructure

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ETP 2012

Scenarios to 2050

� 6°C (6DS): business-as-usual

� 4°C (4DS): expected ‘normal’

policies

� 2°C (2DS): pathways to a clean

energy system

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ETP 2012 2DS scenario for transport

An ‘avoid, shift and improve’ approach is the most cost

effective to reach 2DS objectives

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Mitigation strategies cost comparison

Global transport expenditure estimates to 2050

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Focus on infrastructure

� IEA partnerships:

� UIC (rail)

� IRF (roads)

� UITP (public transport)

� WRI EMBARQ (BRT)

� Structured analysis

� Historic relationship: travel to infrastructure ratio

� Investments as a portion of GDP

� Global analysis and regional limitations (e.g. congestion)

� Infrastructure insights (2013)www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,34742,en.html

© OECD/IEA 2012 8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Thousdand track-km

OECD Europe OECD Pacific Russia China India ASEAN Middle East Latin America Africa Other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Million paved lane-km

Road Rail

Sources: IEA analysis based on IRF (2012) and UIC (2012)

Historic trends

Global road additions continue to grow at a rapid pace,

while rail capacity has remained stagnant in most regions.

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0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Share of GDP

Road Investments

Road Maintenance

Rail Investments

Rail Maintenance

Historic trends

~2% of global GDP spent on road and rail infrastructure

Sources: IEA analysis based on ITF and ADB member country data

© OECD/IEA 2012 10

Looking forward: insights to 2050

Potential cumulative savings: USD 20 trillion (2010 – 2050)

Road Rail

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Million paved lane-km

Other Africa Latin America ASEAN India

China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 4DS

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thousand track-km

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Role of investments to achieve 2DS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thousands Trunk-Km

BRT Km (Thousands)

Africa Latin America Middle East India

ASEAN ODA China ATE

Russia OETE EU 6 Other OECD

OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America

Case 1 Case 2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thousands

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thousands Track-Km

HSR Track-Km (Thousands)

Africa Latin America Middle East India

ASEAN ODA China ATE

Russia OETE EU 6 Other OECD

OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America

Case 1 Case 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

4DS 4DS2DS 2DS

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Conclusions

� Building a sustainable transport system is cheaper

than a conventional one

� Financial flows shift from operating costs (fuels) to

investment costs (infrastructure for mass transit,

efficient vehicles)

� The role of governments and MDB are key to

support this long term vision through targetted

transport system investments

� Developing countries are primary targets, as the

transport system is still to be built

© OECD/IEA 2012

Thanks!

[email protected]