COST OC-2006-32 Olivier Mestre Météo-France France Ingebor Auer ZAMG Austria Enric Aguilar U. Rovirat i Virgili Spain Paul Della-Marta MeteoSwiss Switzerland Vesselin Alexandrov NIMH Bulgaria Sylvie Jourdain Météo-France France ADVANCES IN HOMOGENISATION METHODS OF CLIMATE SERIES: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
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COSTOC-2006-32 Olivier MestreMétéo-FranceFrance Ingebor AuerZAMGAustria Enric AguilarU. Rovirat i VirgiliSpain Paul Della-MartaMeteoSwissSwitzerland Vesselin.
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COSTOC-2006-32
Olivier Mestre Météo-France FranceIngebor Auer ZAMG AustriaEnric Aguilar U. Rovirat i Virgili SpainPaul Della-Marta MeteoSwiss SwitzerlandVesselin Alexandrov NIMH BulgariaSylvie Jourdain Météo-France France
ADVANCES IN HOMOGENISATION METHODS OF CLIMATE SERIES:
AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
COSTOC-2006-32
Homogenisation : WHY?Exemple of PAU-UZEIN temperatures
• Juin 1912 PAU-LESCAR (EN) • 2005 PAU-UZEIN (AERO)
COSTOC-2006-32 Station SilistraStation Silistra
COSTOC-2006-32 Station DobrichStation Dobrich
COSTOC-2006-32
Anomalies of annual minimum temperature in Anomalies of annual minimum temperature in Kjustendil (raw data)Kjustendil (raw data)
COSTOC-2006-32
Raw series of annual Maximum Temperatures (TX) PAU-UZEIN
COSTOC-2006-32
Homogenisation of Pau Maximum Temperatures
• « before » • « after »
COSTOC-2006-32
Decomposition of climatological seriesDecomposition of climatological series
COSTOC-2006-32
Usual method: relative homogeneity
PRINCIPLE : removing the climatic signal to put into evidence artificial shifts in the series
minus
Tested series
Reference series
COMPARISON
series
COSTOC-2006-32
Two problems
• DETECTION OF SHIFTS
• CORRECTION OF SHIFTS
COSTOC-2006-32
Many solutions !
• DETECTIONVisual, Craddock test, Student t-test, Likelihood ratio test (SNHT), Potter test, Bayesian procedures, Local contrast test, Pettitt test, penalized likelihood, MASH…
• Around 60 participants– 60% plan to participate actively to the Action– 40% are mainly interested by the results– 45% may have students working on the Action