CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Kim Knowlton, DrPH Post-Doctoral Research Scientist Email: [email protected] Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air Council.

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Environmental Health Sciences

Kim Knowlton, DrPHPost-Doctoral Research Scientist

Email: [email protected]

Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air CouncilApril 11, 2007

Co-Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Conservation:

Improving Air Quality & NJ Health Today,

Climate Change & Global Health Tomorrow

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Climate Change and Public Health

EnergyDemand

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Metro NY City region home to ~8% of US population, including at-risk communities Ozone non-compliance area, summer heat waves Global/regional climate change may compound New York City urban heat island Direct health effects of heat vs. indirect ozone, pollen effects

Newark

JFK

SURFACE TEMPERATURE, Landsat ETM 7Aug 14 2002, 10:30 AM

(source: Geography Dept, Hunter College)

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Climate change and human health: impacts of heat and ozone

Certain population groups more vulnerable to heat stress and ozone air pollutionRisk factors include:

Age 65+ Pre-existing cardiovascular or

respiratory conditionsLack of air conditioning, city

residence, low socioeconomic status, social isolation

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Ozone Formation

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US EPA (1991) in Kleinman and Lipfert (1996) Note threshold~90°F (32°C)

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Increase in ozone levels from the 1990s to the 2050s

Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)

Average Number of 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Exceedance Days/Summer

Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)

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Linking models for global and regional climate, land use and cover, and air quality…

to examine the potential public health impacts of heat and air pollution under alternative scenarios of climate change & regional land use in

the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the NYC metropolitan region. Funded by the USEPA STAR Research Program.

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The New York Climate & Health Project

What might the future hold in our region?

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Climate change impacts projected in NYC More frequent, more severe storms in NYC Summer heat-related mortality could nearly double by the 2050s and more than triple by the 2080s Summer ozone-related mortality will increase both inside the five boroughs and beyond city limits

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Climate-Related Mortality, Current vs. Future Model Simulations

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1990s 2020s A2 2050s A2 2080s A2Decade

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summerheat-relatedmortality

summerozone-relatedmortality

Results: Summer heat & O3 mortality risk assessment

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Immediate Local “Co-Benefits”: Reductions in Ozone- and Particulate Matter-Related Health Impacts

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Mortality effects Infant mortality Chronicbronchitis

Hospitalrespiratoryadmissions

Emergencyroom visits

Asthma attacks Acute bronchitis Work loss days Restrictedactivity days

Health effects avoided from 2000 to 2020 in New York City due to ozone & particulate matter reductions if GHG mitigation measures are taken (Cifuentes et al. EHP 2001)

Beggs & Bambrick Environ Health Perspect (2005)

• Under increased CO2 & temperature conditions, increased ragweed plant biomass, growth rate, pollen production (Ziska et al. J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003)

• CO2 concentrations in NYC 37% higher than rural sites (Knowlton et al., unpublished data)

• Possible local effects of emissions on local health?

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Mitigation Adaptation

What can we do about it?

Energy efficiency & conservation Reducing other greenhouse gases from industry, agriculture, waste management thru voluntary measures & government regulation Rely more on renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) Decarbonisation - CO2 removal and storage Biological carbon sequestration

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Heat-health alert systems Air conditioning distribution Water resource and shoreline management Wetlands restoration Storm evacuation planning Disaster preparedness planning Revise corporate & business plansImprove community resiliency

CORE E nvironmental H ealth S ciences Kim Knowlton, DrPH Post-Doctoral Research Scientist Email: [email protected] Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air Council.

Documents

local health

public health results

cc health effects

human health

s bell

climatic change

public health us epa

air quality nj health