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• Present a framework, proven in other high-technology industries, for assessing the opportunities, required resources, and complex, interrelated bottlenecks facing the solar industry and its role in building a Global Knowledge Society.
• Demonstrate how this framework can be applied to maximize solar industry value creation and its contribution to Sustainable Development.
Sustainable development is in itself a “killer application,” and
A major driver of the innovation necessary to achieve sustainability and a Global Knowledge Society
Sustainability will require limits on consumption but not Knowledge and a new focus on human well being and purpose as indicators of growth
Solar Industry Structural Evolution• Industrial strategy is about structural evolution and market positioning to secure
a sustainable competitive advantage.
Successful strategy for the U.S. Solar Industry, will be determined by actions of multiple factors, economic conditions, policies and programs.
Anticipating/envisioning the Solar Industry’s likely evolution and supporting actions can secure a sustainable competitive advantage.
• Ultimately, the Solar Industry will dwarf the Information, Communications Digital Technologies (ICT) industry, but the Solar Industry can benefit and learn from these industries’ characteristics:
Supporting structures for long-term growth, sustained profitability, & collective response to environmental, regulatory and other challenges
Global supply chains linked by industry-wide technology roadmaps, industry & environmental standards, manufacturing diagnostics, & other collective dependencies that accelerate technology transfer, reduce cost, & facilitate innovation.
• Need to explore, in collaboration with all stakeholders, how best to nurture and develop a supportive and collaborative Solar Industry.
1800 to 2050 will be remembered as a period of intense technological expansion that fundamentally increased humankind’s ability to extract and
harness energy.Economy Economic
DriversInfrastructure Economic
IndicatorsEnvironmental Protection
Sustainable Energy/ Information Intensity Era (post 2010) Convergence of Electric Power and Information Technology, i.e., the Digital Economy of the Global Knowledge Society
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an annual average 1.5% growth in CO2 emission levels (based on projected Kaya factors) through 2035, representing a 49% increase in 2008 levels.
Effect of Electrification on Birth Rate and Income
Electrification and Birth Rate
• About one quarter of the human race lives today without access (Inclusion Gap) to modern energy services, Information and Communications Digital Technologies (ICT).
• This energy and ICT Inclusion Gap tends to be greatest in those regions where population is growing most rapidly and would offer the greatest benefits.
Global Environmental Dilemma: Projected (2008-2035) CO2 Emission Levels and Associated Kaya Factors (World)
• The US Energy Information Agency (www.eia.gov) projects an ~1.5% average annual percent increase in world CO2 emissions based on the above projected average annual percent changes for the 4 Kaya factors, through 2035.
• Projection: 49% increase in 2008 world CO2 emission levels by 2035.
• Most significant driver of growth in CO2 emissions is economic output per capita (Y/P).
Governments generally pursue policies that increase Y/P.
• Population growth (P) is projected to increase everywhere except Japan & Russia.
• Energy Intensity (E/Y) is generally indicative of energy efficiency.
• CO2 Intensity (C/E) is indicative of regional fuel source mix (renewables).
"Enabling Effect" of the ICT Industry: Projected Reductions in World Emissions (2008-2035) by ICT Enabled Innovations
• The projected annual average percent change (reduction) in the revised C/Y Kaya factor (through 2035) is computed to be ~-3.5% for the most optimistic ICT benefit (i.e., Smart 2020 Report).
• Using an equivalent 3-factor form of the differential Kaya relation and the current EIA projections (2008-2035) for annual average Per Capita Economic Activity (Y/P) growth (+2.6%) and Population (P) growth (+0.9%), yields a revised prediction of CO2 emission growth through 2035...
Predicted Annual Average Growth (2008-2035) in World CO2
Emissions Including Beneficial "Enabling Effect" of ICT
• Assuming the most optimistic predicted benefits due to the “enabling effect” of the ICT industry is realized, the differential form of the Kaya identity indicates essentially no (~0%) growth or increase in world CO2 emissions (relative to 2008 levels) through 2035.
• This no growth/increase result is in contrast to the current EIA projection of a 49% growth/increase in world CO2 emission levels by 2035 (relative to 2008).
• Maximizing benefits and speed of market adoption of “Dematerialization & Smart Solutions”, enabled by the ICT industry, should be a focus of global technology development & innovation to mitigate CO2 emission levels.
• ICT is central to Energy Internet/Smart Grid that:
• Enable higher renewable energy market penetration (developed countries)
• Build demand for distributed generation based on ICT applications – telemedicine, entertainment, education, e-banking, …. (developing world)
• All scenarios predicting significant beneficial ICT “enabling effects” assume a 10X-50X increase in solar/PV electrical generating by 2035.
• Realizing the full potential of the ICT “enabling effect” depends, in part, on a rapidly accelerated development of the solar/PV industry.
• Need to explore, in collaboration with all stakeholders, how best to nurture and develop supportive & collaborative Solar Industry.
• Decisions made today will impact the efficiency, sustainability, & profitability of a Global Solar Industry over the next 10, 20, 50 years — as well as determine which countries will be its leaders, e.g. China, Japan, USA, Germany, Spain….
The Role of Renewables in the ICT “Enabling Effect”
Think of the portfolio of project activities at the system level as an interconnected set of functions that reinforce each other. Examine and understand the linkages and interactions between elements that comprise the entirety of the Solar Industry development system.
• Systems thinking shows how events that are separated in distance and time can interact and how the rules of the system drive system behavior.
• Small catalytic events, especially ones that change the rules, can cause large changes in complex systems.
A goal of Systems Thinking is identifying “leverage” -- seeing where actions and changes lead to sustainable improvement.
The world has not yet reached an equilibrium point in terms of population, economic growth, or environmental impact that can be called “Sustainable”, i.e., The balancing of human activity with the earth’s Carrying Capacity and living in harmony with each other and our planet by experiencing freedom and prosperity on a global level.
We have the paradox of a unified global economy but divided global society which pose the single greatest threat to the planet because it makes difficult the cooperation needed to address the remaining challenges.
The developed world has reached a critical point at which its future economic, environmental, and social health depends upon increasing
the rest of the world’s access to clean, cost-effective energy, Information and Communications Digital Technologies (ICT).
Electrification is the foundation for a global sustainable development strategy.
Sustainable development is in itself a “killer application” and a major driver of the transition to the sustainable energy/information intensity
economic era and the stabilization of GHG emissions.
Sustainability is defined as living in harmony with each other and our planet by experiencing freedom and prosperity on a global level.
Conclusions• Global access to reliable, affordable electricity is essential to insuring sustainable
economic growth, protecting environmental assets and improving global health and prosperity
• Global electrification will require a combination of innovative new policies, finance mechanisms, infrastructure technology, in addition to ICT.
• Technology innovation can radically increase zero-carbon electricity generation technologies such as Solar, reduce energy intensity, minimize carbon intensity, while enhancing the quality of life and insuring sustainable economic development.
• Solar needs more resource investment upstream during the concept and exploration phases to introduce system-level considerations as early as possible. This can reduce the product development interval and facilitate technology transfer.
• Solar Industry Drivers should be considered in the context of Systems Thinking --- Solar Industry Supply-Chain Consortium, Energy Internet, Sustainable Development
• Electricity from renewable energy combined with ICT in grid operation and new services to consumers, can stabilize CO2 emissions and form the infrastructure for the transition to a globally sustainable energy system
• Today, we mainly define progress by new developments in technology and economic growth rather than by the broader notion of advancing human well being and “Human Purpose.” The highest leverage will come from strategies that inherently do both. This integration has the potential to expand technology and human development as two aspects of the same process. This integration offers Hope for the creation of a Global Knowledge Society.