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Page 1: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

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Page 2: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the UKPDS study

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Prof. David R. MatthewsSalamanca 29th January 2010. IV congress on

Diabetes and obesity

Page 3: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

• Title: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the UKPDS study Given where: Salamanca, Spain

• Based on: Florence , Teneriffe• Keywords: Glycaemia, trials, Advance, Record, Adopt,UKPDS,Proactive

• Date: 29/01/2010• Occasion: IV congress on Diabetes and Obesity• Sponsor: • Contact: academic• Feedback:• Duration: 45mins• Timing: • Notes:• Discussion:• Thoughts:• Revisions necessary

Page 4: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Risks of complications in type 2 diabetes

• Glycaemia• Hypertension• Dyslipidaemia• Smoking• Obesity

• Age• Sex• Race• Genes (within

race)• Competing risks

**

Page 5: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The problem

• We utilise glucose as our main metabolic fuel

• Glucose can be stored and mobilised in seconds

• A fit person can run on glucose energy for about 15miles

BUTGlucose is very osmotically

activeEven 8mmol/l will damage

vesselsIf we could survive with glucose

at just 12mmol/l most diabetes would be irrelevant

Page 6: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

How do we know that high glucose is dangerous?

• Rats and mice run a higher blood glucose than man –typically 8mmol/l– Evolutionary pressure is

not about 70-year survival but 3 year survival

– Fuel more important than glucose risk

• In man we have trial evidence of the risk

Page 7: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

• UGDP• UKPDS• PROactive• (ADOPT)• (Nissen et al meta-analysis)• RECORD• ACCORD• ADVANCE• UKDPS PTM• VADT

Trials relating to glycaemia and outcomes

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

UGDP UKPDS

Advance

VADT

Accord

ProActive

Glycaemic outcome trials

RECORD

Page 9: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

UGDP UKPDS

Advance

VADT

Accord

ProActive

Glycaemic outcome trialsEach of these trials was controversial in

some respects

RECORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Randomised controlled trials

Define the population

Treatment A

Treatment B

Randomise

How long?

What difference is going to be measured?

How many? = power

Is it safe?

?

What complexity?

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Problems in trials

Define the population

Treatment A

Treatment B

Randomise

How long?

What difference is going to be measured?

How many? = power

Is it safe?

?

UGDPVADT

ACCORD

ProActiveRECORD

ADVANCE

UKPDS

What complexity?

VADT

Page 12: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

UGDP – perhaps tolbutamide was dangerous?

More people died in the tolbutamide group

Leibel B. An analysis of the UGDP. Can Med Assoc J. 1971 Aug 7;105(3):292-4.

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

UGDP

Define the population

Comparator groupsRandomise

there were 30% more baseline ECG abnormalities in the tolbutamide group

there was 40% more angina in the tolbutamide group

Tolbutamide group More deaths

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

UKPDS

• Primary intervention randomised controlled outcome trial

• Used sulphonylureas– mainly glibenclamide and chlorpropamide– small number of patients used gliclazide and

acarbose (not formally part of the trial)• Used metformin in the overweight (120% Ideal body

weight)• Used insulin as primary intervention• Recruited patients with fasting glucose greater than

6mmol/l

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20 years 5years

5012

Num

bers

in th

e st

udy

Randomised trial Post-study monitoring

(non-randomised)

UKPDS assessment designUKPDS assessment design(end(end--point counting)point counting)

1997

: en

d19

98 :

pub

lish

Deaths

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20 years 10 years

5012

Num

bers

in th

e st

udy

Randomised trial Post-study monitoring

(non-randomised)

UKPDS designUKPDS design

1997

: en

d19

98 :

pub

lish

Deaths

50% mortality ~30years

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Mortality in the UKPDS (1997)

Cardiac41%

Sudden6%

Stroke9%

Unknown2%

Cancer25%

Accident2%

Other15%

End of the trial (1997): 1/7 of all the patients had died (20y)By 2000: 1/4 of all the patients had diedEnd of Post Study Monitoring:

1/2 of all the patients had died (30y)

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HbAHbA1c1ccohort, median data

ukpds

06

7

8

9

0 2 4 6 8 10

%

Years from randomisation

GlibenclamideChlorpropamideConventional Insulin

HbA1c

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

UKPDS: Any Diabetes Related endpointsab

solu

te ri

sk

Glucose control trial

Conventional Policy

Intensive Policy

Blood pressure control trial

Less tight control

Tight control

80

60

40

20

0

80

60

40

20

0

…but myocardial infarction reduction in the main trial was not significantly (p=0.052)

reduced

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Epidemiology vs trial

• Trials randomise patients and examine the outcome on the basis of the randomised intervention.

• Epidemiological analyses examine a surrogate marker within the trial (e.g. the glucose or the blood pressure) and examine the outcome based on what was achieved rather than what was administered.

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Microvascular diseaseMicrovascular disease

0.5

1

1015

0 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

updated mean HbA1c

haza

rd ra

tio

37% decrease per 1% decrement in HbA1c

p<0.0001

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Myocardial infarctionMyocardial infarction

updated mean HbA1c

haza

rd ra

tio

14% decrease per 1% decrement in HbA1c

p<0.0001

0.5

1

5

0 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

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0.5

1

5

0 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Diabetes related deathsDiabetes related deaths

updated mean HbA1c

haza

rd ra

tio

21% decrease per 1% decrement in HbA1c

p<0.0001

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Any Diabetes Related endpoints

HbA1c (%) systolic blood pressure

>87-8

6-7<6 <130

130-140140-150

>150

haza

rd ra

tio

012345

012345

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Microvascular endpoints

HbA1c(%)

systolic blood pressure

>87-8

6-7<6 <13

0

130-140

140-150

>150

haza

rd ra

tio

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

PROactive

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

PROactive

• Pioglitazone• Secondary prevention in type 2 diabetes and

macrovascular disease• N=5238 Duration 34.5 months• Primary outcome: composite of all-cause mortality,

non-fatal MI (including silent MI), non-fatal stroke, major leg amputation, ACS, cardiac intervention (bypass graft or percutaneous coronary intervention), and leg revascularization

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Betteridge, D. J. et al. Eur Heart J 2008 29:969-983

Proactive composite outcome

Pio514 events

Placebo572 events

P=0.095

Primary composite event rate

Main secondary composite event rate

Placebo358 events

P=0.027 Pio301 events

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Pio

Placebo

P=0.045

Fatal and non-fatal MI

Fatal and non-fatal stroke

Placebo

P=0.009Pio

Betteridge, D. J. et al. Eur Heart J 2008 29:969-983

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ProActive

Pioglitazone

Comparator

What difference is going to be measured?

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Betteridge, D. J. et al. Eur Heart J 2008 29:969-983

Pioglitazone meta-anlyses

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Rosiglitazone Meta-analysis42 trialsstudy duration of more than 24 weeksmean age 56 years; baseline HbA1c 8.2%

1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.80.80.6 2.0

MI

Death

comparisons were randomized control

groups not receiving rosiglitazone

1.64 (95% CI, 0.98 to 2.74; P=0.06).

1.43 (95% CI, 1.03 to 1.98; P=0.03)

odds ratios:

Nissen N Engl J Med. 2007 Jun 14;356(24):2457-71.

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

EDIC(DCCT post trial monitoring)

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Distribution of HbA1c Concentration by Randomized Treatment Group at the End of the DCCT and in Each Year of the EDIC Study

JAMA 2003;290:2159-2167.

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism JAMA 2003;290:2159-2167.

Prevalence and Cumulative Incidence of Microalbuminuria

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

RECORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

RECORD• An outcome trial of Rosiglitazone: interim results• The interim results for the primary end point were

inconclusive• a hazard ratio of 1.08 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.31) on the

basis of events adjudicated by the committee reviewing clinical end points.

• In any interim trial report, there are inevitably some potential primary events pending adjudication. Adding in these pending events increased the hazard ratio to 1.11 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.32).

Home, P.D. et al

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

RECORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

RECORD

Comparator

How long?

What difference is going to be measured?

How many? = power

Is it safe?

?Rosiglitazone

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes)

Design

• to determine whether intensively lowering blood sugar would reduce the risk of cardiovascular events such as heart attack, stroke, or death from cardiovascular disease, specifically in people with type 2 diabetes who are at particularly high risk for a cardiovascular event

Page 42: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Accord Study design

• 77 sites USA and Canada, • includes adults• ages of 40 – 82y at enrolment • type 2 diabetes, • PLUS:

–two or more other risk factors for heart disease –or had been diagnosed with heart disease before

entering the study.

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Enrolment

• average diabetes duration of 10 years at enrolment, • randomly assigned to either standard (n=5,123

participants) or intensive (n=5,128) blood sugar treatment goals.

• also enrolled in one of two other ACCORD randomized clinical trials examining effects of treatments for blood pressure or blood lipids.

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD: Patient Characteristics

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Glucose control in ACCORD

N Engl J Med 2008;358:2545-59

Treatments in intensive

control group

Insulin 77%

TZD 92%

SU 78%

Metformin 95%

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UKPDS and ACCORDUKPDS and ACCORDcohort, median data

ukpds

06

7

8

9

0 2 4 6 8 10

%

Years from randomisation

GlibenclamideChlorpropamideConventionalInsulin

ACCORDHbA1c

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Primary outcome

The first occurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke or death from cardiovascular causes.

The latter included death from myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmia, invasive cardiovascular interventions, cardiovascular causes after noncardiovascular surgery, stroke, unexpected death presumed to be from ischaemic cardiovascular disease occurring within 24 hours after the onset of symptoms, and death from other vascular diseases.

ACCORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD

54 excess deaths in the intensive

group257

deaths

203 deaths

Discontinued 2008 on advice from Data

Monitoring and Ethics Group

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Risk profile high

• Participants were included in the ACCORD trial because they were at especially high risk—more risk than is associated with diabetes alone—for having a heart attack, stroke, or of dying from cardiovascular disease.

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

HbA1c

• intensive treatment group participants achieved, on average, A1C values lower than standard treatment group participants.

• half of the participants in the intensive treatment group achieved an A1C of less than 6.4 percent

• half of the participants in the standard treatment group achieved an A1C of less than 7.5 percent.

• The average blood sugar levels for both groups were lower than when they entered the study

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD Primary outcome

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD death from any cause

Younger

Higher A1c

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The problem

• enrolled 10,251 participants. • Of these, 257 in the intensive treatment group died,

compared with 203 within the standard treatment group.

• This is a difference of 54 deaths, or 3 per 1,000 participants each year, over an average of almost four years of treatment.

• Participants had been followed for 2 years to 7 years at the time the intensive blood sugar control treatment was stopped

• The death rates in both groups were lower than seen in similar populations in other studies.

(14 deaths per 1000 patients per year versus 11 per 1000

patients per year in the standard treatment program; a difference of 0.3 deaths per 100 patients

per year).

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ACCORD

Define the population

Non-aggressive

Is it safe?

?Aggressive

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE

Page 58: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE Inclusion criteriaType 2 diabetes mellitusAge 55 years or olderAdditional risk of vascular event Age ≥ 65 yearsHistory of major macrovascular diseaseHistory of major microvascular diseaseFirst diagnosis of diabetes >10 years prior to entryOther major risk factor

Any level of blood pressureAny level of glucose control but no definite indication for long-term insulin

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE: Patient Characteristics

8 Years

Page 60: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE Intensive glucose control strategy

More frequent visits

Emphasis on lifestyle management

Drug titration at physician’s discretion based on HbA1c and FBG levels:

Maximize gliclazide MR dose

Add other oral agents

Add long-acting insulin

Use multiple insulin injection therapy

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE Hemoglobin A1c

∆ 0.67% (95% CI 0.64 - 0.70); p<0.001

Mea

n H

bA1c

(%)

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Follow-up (Months)

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66

7.3 %

Mean HbA1cat final visit

6.5%

StandardIntensive

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE Major macrovascular events

Follow-up (months)

Cum

ula t

ive

i nci

den c

e (%

)25

20

15

10

5

0

StandardIntensive

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66

Relative risk reduction6%: 95% CI: -6 to 16%

p=0.32

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE Major microvascular events

Follow-up (months)

Cum

ula t

ive

i nci

den c

e (%

)25

20

15

10

5

0

StandardIntensive

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66

Relative risk reduction14%: 95% CI: 3 to 23%

p=0.015

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE Major microvascular events

Microvascular 526 605 14% (3 to 23)

New or worsening nephropathy 230 292 21% (7 to 34)

New or worsening retinopathy 332 349 5% (-10 to 18)

Number of patients with eventIntensive Standard(n=5,571) (n=5,569)

Relative riskreduction (95% CI)

FavorsIntensive

FavorsStandard

Hazard ratio0.5 1.0 2.0

†P=0.01

‡P=0.006

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

ADVANCE

Sulphonylurea

Comparators

How long?

What difference is going to be measured?

Page 66: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

VADT

Page 67: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

VADT

• 20 centres• 1791 patients• Major CVD events• 97% male• Duration 7.5 years• median f-up 6 years• Median 7% vs 8.4% HbA1c in groups• No difference in cardiovascular outcome

Underpowered trial

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

VADT

Treatment A

Treatment B

How long?

How many? = power

Page 69: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Trial

At the end of a trial all subjects are

treated with the best option

Group A

Group BPost trial

monitoring

Did being in Group A or B years ago make a difference to what is happening now?

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The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

UKPDS Post Trial Monitoring

Page 71: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

UK Prospective Diabetes Study

20-year Interventional Trial from 1977 to 19975,102 patients with newly-diagnosed type 2 diabetes recruited between 1977 and 1991

Median follow-up 10.0 years, range 6 to 20 years

Results presented at the 1998 EASD Barcelona meeting

10-year Post-Trial Monitoring from 1997 to 2007Annual follow-up of the survivor cohort

Clinic-based for first five years

Questionnaire-based for last five years

Median overall follow-up 17.0 years, range 16 to 30 years

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Post-Trial Monitoring: Aims

To observe HbA1c levels after cessation of theintervention trial

To observe glucose therapy regimens aftercessation of the intervention trial

To determine the longer-term impact of earlier improved glucose control on microvascularand on macrovascular outcomes

To evaluate the health economic implications with a projected 50% mortality at ten years post trial

Page 73: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

P

Glucose Interventional Trial

Conventional

Intensive

Intensive

Trial end1997

P

UKPDS 8. Diabetologia 1991; 34: 877-89

5,102Newly-diagnosedtype 2 diabetes

744Diet failure

FPG >15 mmol/l

149Diet satisfactory

FPG <6 mmol/l

DietaryRun-in

4209

2,729Intensive

with sulfonylurea/insulin

1,138 (411 overweight)Conventional

with diet

342 (all overweight)Intensive

with metformin

Randomisation1977-1991

Mean age 54 years(IQR 48–60)

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Post-Trial Monitoring: Patients

880Conventional

2,118Sulfonylurea/Insulin

279Metformin

1997# in survivor cohort

Mortality 44% (1,852)Lost-to-follow-up 3.5% (146)

2002

Clinic

Clinic

Clinic

Questionnaire

Questionnaire

Questionnaire

2007# with final year data

379Conventional

1,010Sulfonylurea/Insulin

136Metformin

P

P

Mean age62±8 years

Page 75: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Therapy for Glycaemia at 5 Years

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Conventional Intensive

Original randomisation

Pro

porti

on o

f pat

ient

s

Diet aloneOral monotherapy

Combined oral

Oral + insulin

Basal insulin

Basal + soluble

77%

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Post-Trial Changes in HbA1c

UKPDS resultspresented

Mean (95%CI)

Page 77: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Any Diabetes-related Endpoint

Intervention TrialMedian follow-up 10.0 years

Intervention Trial + Post-trial monitoringMedian follow-up 16.8 years

RR=0.88 (0.79-0.99)P=0.029

Conventional

Sulfonylurea/Insulin

Conventional

Sulfonylurea/Insulin

1997-2007

1997-2007

1997-2007

A “legacy effect” ofprior improved glucose control

Page 78: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Any Diabetes Related Endpoint Hazard Ratio

Intensive (SU/Ins) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

Page 79: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Microvascular Disease Hazard Ratio

Intensive (SU/Ins) vs. Conventional glucose control(photocoagulation, vitreous haemorrhage, renal failure)

HR (95%CI)

Page 80: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Myocardial Infarction Hazard Ratio(fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or sudden death)

Intensive (SU/Ins) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

Page 81: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Post-Trial Monitoring: Protocol

At trial end, patients were returned to usual physician care for their diabetes management

No attempt was made to maintain them in randomised groups, or to influence their therapy

All endpoints were adjudicated in an identical mannerby the same Adjudication Committee as during the trial

From 1997 to 2002:

Patients were seen annually in UKPDS clinics for standardised collection of clinical and biochemical data

From 2002 to 2007:

Clinical outcomes were ascertained remotely by questionnaires sent to patients and GPs

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All-cause Mortality Hazard Ratio

Intensive (SU/Ins) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

Page 83: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Post-Trial Changes in HbA1c

UKPDS resultspresented Mean (95%CI)

Page 84: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Any Diabetes Related Endpoint Hazard Ratio

Intensive (metformin) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

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Microvascular Disease Hazard Ratio(photocoagulation, vitreous haemorrhage, renal failure)

Intensive (metformin) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

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Myocardial Infarction Hazard Ratio (fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or sudden death)

Intensive (metformin) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

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All-cause Mortality Hazard Ratio

Intensive (metformin) vs. Conventional glucose control

HR (95%CI)

Page 88: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Are there Blood Pressure Are there Blood Pressure Therapy Legacy Effects?Therapy Legacy Effects?

Page 89: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Hypertension in Diabetes Study (HDS)10-year Intervention Trial 1987-1997

1,148 patients with blood pressure ≥160/90 mm Hg,or ≥150/85 mm Hg if receiving antihypertensive treatment,enrolled over four years from 1987

Median follow-up 8.4 years, range 6 to 10 years

Results presented at the 1998 EASD Barcelona meeting

10-year Post-trial Monitoring 1997-2007Annual follow-up of the survivor cohort

Clinic-based for first five years

Questionnaire-based for last five years

Median overall follow-up 14.6 years, range 16 to 20 years

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Blood Pressure Interventional Trial

1,148BP >160/90 mm Hg

or >150/80 on Rx

Tight control

Less-tight control

Trial end1997

P

UKPDS 8. Diabetologia 1991; 34: 877-89

5,102UKPDS patients

759Tight control

ACEI or ß-blocker

390Less-tight control

No ACEI or ß-blocker

Randomisation1987-1991

Mean age56±8 years

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Post-Trial Monitoring: Patients

292Less-tight control

592Tight control

1997# in survivor cohort

Mortality 51% (584)Lost-to-follow-up 2.0% (23)

2002

Clinic

Clinic

2007# with final year data

Questionnaire

Questionnaire 126Less-tight control

250Tight control

P

Mean age63±8 years

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Antihypertensive Therapy at 5 years

Pro

porti

on o

f pat

ient

sLess Tight Tight

1

2

3

4

5

Number of agents

Original randomisation0

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

74%

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Post-Trials Changes in Blood Pressure

UKPDSresults

presented Mean (95%CI)

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Any Diabetes Related Endpoint Hazard Ratio

Less-tight vs. Tight blood pressure control

HR (95%CI)

Page 95: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Microvascular Disease Hazard Ratio

Less-tight vs. Tight blood pressure control(photocoagulation, vitreous haemorrhage, renal failure)

HR (95%CI)

Page 96: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Myocardial Infarction Hazard Ratios

Less-tight vs. Tight blood pressure control(fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or sudden death)

HR (95%CI)

Page 97: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

All-cause Mortality Hazard Ratios

Less-tight vs. Tight blood pressure control

Page 98: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

After median 8.5 years post-trial follow-up

Aggregate Endpoint 1997 2007

Any diabetes related endpoint RRR: 12% 9%P: 0.029 0.040

Microvascular disease RRR: 25% 24%P: 0.0099 0.001

Myocardial infarction RRR: 16% 15%P: 0.052 0.014

All-cause mortality RRR: 6% 13%P: 0.44 0.007

RRR = Relative Risk Reduction, P = Log Rank

Page 99: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

After median 8.8 years post-trial follow-up

Aggregate Endpoint 1997 2007

Any diabetes related endpoint RRR: 32% 21%P: 0.0023 0.013

Microvascular disease RRR: 29% 16%P: 0.19 0.31

Myocardial infarction RRR: 39% 33%P: 0.010 0.005

All-cause mortality RRR: 36% 27%P: 0.011 0.002

RRR = Relative Risk Reduction, P = Log Rank

Page 100: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Benefits of Early Tight Control- UKPDS 10 year Post-Trial Follow-Up

1.Holman RR, Paul SK, Bethel MA, Matthews DR, Neil HA. 10-year follow-up of intensive glucose control in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med. 2008 Oct 9;359(15):1577-89.2. UKPDS 33. Lancet, 1998: 352; 837

2

Page 101: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

No Legacy Effect of Earlier BP Control

After median 8.0 years post-trial follow-up

Aggregate Endpoint 1997 2007

Any diabetes related endpoint RRR: 24% 7%P: 0.0046 0.31

Microvascular disease RRR: 37% 16%P: 0.0092 0.17

Myocardial infarction RRR: 21% 10%P: 0.13 0.35

All-cause mortality RRR: 18% 11%P: 0.17 0.18

RRR = Relative Risk Reduction, P = Log Rank

Page 102: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Legacy effectsLegacy effects

• Legacy: “something handed on by or left unfinished by a predecessor or previous owner”*

• More likely to be gradually developing pathology than “metabolic memory”

*Chambers Dictionary 10th edition

Page 103: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The performance of this machine may depend on its previous history as well as standards of care today.

Page 104: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

Accidents likely to happenAccidents likely to happenThe rust on

this machine today is the

result of what has

happened in the distant

past

Glycaemic control in the distant past

reduces the risks of events today

The air pressure in the

tyres of this machine is the result of what has happened in the recent

past

Blood pressure control in the recent past reduces the risks of events today

Page 105: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

What do we change in clinical practice?What do we change in clinical practice?

• Evidence is strongly in favour of intensive treatment for glycaemia early in T2DM

• Evidence suggests that in those with established CVD that a rapid lowering of glycaemia to aggressive targets may cause excess mortality.

• Rosiglitazone needs further evidence for its safety in established T2DM

• Sulphonylureas may be appropriate for preventing microvascular disease (nephropathy)

Page 106: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

With thanks to…23 UKPDS Centres & Investi

Aberdeen John Stowers, LilianBelfast City Randal Hayes Belfast Royal David HaddenBirmingham David Wright Carshalton Steve Hyer, Memo SDerby Ian Peacock Dundee Ray Newton, Roland Exeter Kenneth McLeod, JoHammersmith Anne Dornhorst, EvaIpswich John Day Leicester Felix Burden Manchester Andrew BoultonNorthampton Charles FoxNorwich Richard GreenwoodOxford Robert Turner, Rury Peterborough Jonathan RolandSalford Tim Dornan, Martin GScarborough Phil BrownSt George’s Nigel Oakley, ArshiaStevenage Les BorthwickStoke on Trent John Scarpell, LionelTorbay Richard PaiseyWhittington John Yudkin

1998 EASD Investigator Meeting in Barcelona

…Robert Turnerdied August 1999

…Carole Culldied June 2007

…all 5,102 patients and UKPDS staff

Page 107: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

1997 to 2002

UK Medical Research Council

UK Department of Health

Diabetes UK

British Heart Foundation

National Institutes for Health

2002 to 2007Bristol-Myers Squibb

GlaxoSmithKline

Merck Serono

Novartis

Novo Nordisk

Pfizer

Page 108: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

MEGA-trials(No cardiovascular outcomes assessable in diabetes without

mega-trials)

Defined (by me) as a randomised interventive trial with outcomes where greater than about 5,000,000 patient days are reported(e.g. 1,000 patients for 3 years…or greater)

AND they need to last longer than 5 yearsAND the glycaemic difference needs to be >0.5%

Hba1c.

Page 109: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

What do we change in clinical practice (1)?

• Evidence is strongly in favour of intensive treatment for glycaemia early in T2DM

• Evidence suggests that in those with established CVD that a rapid lowering of glycaemia to aggressive targets may cause excess mortality.

• Rosiglitazone needs further evidence for its safety in established T2DM

• Gliclazide MR use may be appropriate for preventing microvascular disease (nephropathy)

Page 110: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

What do we change in clinical practice (2)?

• Evidence suggests that recent blood pressure control is protective, while a past history of good control is less significant.

• Evidence suggests that MULTIPLE risk-factor intervention is important.– (Steno studies – not reviewed today, but suggest

that a well-delivered package of intervention has beneficial outcome)

Page 111: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

“You might as well fall flat on your face, as lean over too far backwards”

James Thurber.

Fl. 1945

Page 112: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 113: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 114: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 115: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 116: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 117: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 118: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 119: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 120: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 121: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

Page 122: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

The roller-coaster:trials relating to glycaemia

Ent

husi

asm

Time

UGDP

UKPDS

PROactive(EASD)

PROactive(on reflection)

(NissenMeta analysis)

ADOPT

RECORD

ACCORD

ADVANCE

VADT?

UKPDS PTM

Page 123: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

Some cautions• There will be those who say that

glucose lowering is not cost effective

• There will be those who say that the target of 7.5% is adequate, without saying for whom

• There will be those who say that we should just lower cholesterol and blood pressure

• There will be those who will become famous for saying almost anything, but loudly

Page 124: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

HbA

1c

Good evidence that glycaemic control is beneficial – UKPDS

and UKPDS-PTM

Fair evidence that aggressive late

glycaemic control is harmful–ACCORD

Fair evidence that slow late

glycaemic control is beneficial–

ADVANCE

•Good evidence for metformin (UKPDS)•Fair evidence for gliclazide and pioglitazone (ADVANCE and ProACTIVE)•Poor evidence for rosiglitazone (ACCORD and RECORD)

Time (years)0 10

6.5%

7.5%

Summary of evidence

Page 125: Contribution to clinicians of the last revision of the ...

The Oxford Centrefor Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism

If you have been…

…thank you for listening