CONSENSUS FORECAST PHILIPPINES 2 CALENDAR 11 NOTES 13 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist RICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist CARL KELLY Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist DIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Economist CECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015 FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015 Philippines • April 2015
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CONSENSUS FORECAST
PHILIPPINES 2CALENDAR 11NOTES 13
ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief EconomistARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of ResearchRICARDO ACEVES Senior EconomistRICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist
OLGA COSCODAN EconomistCARL KELLY EconomistTERESA KERSTING EconomistDIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist
PUBLICATION DATE 24 March 2015FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 23 March 2015
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 23 March 2015 NEXT EDITION 28 April 2015
Philippines • April 2015
FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2
April 2015
Philippines
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances growth slows to six-year low in JanuaryIn January, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) increased 0.5% over the same month of the previous year, reaching USD 1.8 billion. The print came in below December’s 6.6% expansion and marked the slowest pace of growth since January 2009. The overall trend stabilized as remittances totaled USD 24.4 billion in the 12 months up to January, which was virtually in line with December’s print that had marked a record high. The increase represented a 5.5% expansion over the same period of the previous year but fell short of December’s 5.9% rise.
Remittances, which accounted for approximately 8.5% of GDP in 2014, are an important source of income for many Filipino families and thus a key driver of private consumption. According to the Central Bank, land-based workers accounted for the largest share of remittances, while a smaller proportion of remittances came from sea-based workers. Remittances mainly came from the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
• The Philippines recorded a strong expansion in the final quarter of last year, pushing full-year GDP growth to 6.1%. The result suggests that the economy is solidly back on track following Q3’s slowdown. The Q4 acceleration resulted from a rebound in public spending, strong exports and robust private consumption. The government’s focus remains on improving the country’s underdeveloped transport, power and energy infrastructures, which is also crucial to attracting increased foreign direct investment (FDI). Even though implementation of several approved infrastructure projects is behind schedule, companies’ interest in the government’s public-private-partnership is promising. In addition, several policy changes to boost FDI are currently under discussion.
• FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists now assess the Philippines’ economic prospects more positively on expectations that GDP growth will benefit from low oil prices and be sustained by solid private and public spending. Panelists expect the economy to expand 6.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel sees GDP growing 6.3%.
• Inflation inched up from January’s seventeen-month low of 2.4% to 2.5% in February. Inflationary pressures remained subdued in recent months, owing mainly to weak fuel prices and lower food price inflation. Panelists expect inflation to average 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2016, they forecast average inflation of 3.5%.
OFW Remittances | USD billion and variation in %
Note: Monthly OFW remittances in USD billion and annual variation in %.Source: Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP).
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
Monthly OFW remittances in USD bn (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
%
FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 3
April 2015
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow 5.8% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects private consumption to expand 5.7%.
The government expects growth between 7.0% and 8.0% in 2015 and 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth to reach 6.4% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect growth of 6.3%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches up in February In February, consumer prices rose 0.14% over the previous month, coming in below January’s 0.36% rise. February’s increase reflects that higher prices for housing, electricity, gas and other fuels as well as transport slightly offset lower prices for food items.
Annual inflation inched up from January’s 2.4%, which had marked the lowest level in 17 months, to 2.5% in February. Meanwhile, annual average inflation, which is the reference rate used by the Central Bank as a guide for monetary policy, in February stood at 3.9%, which was a bit down from January’s 4.0% and marked a seven-month low. Thus, average inflation in February rested just slightly below the upper bound of the Central Bank’s target range.
The monthly core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as food and oil, in February rose 0.4% over the previous month, coming in below January’s 0.6% rise. Finally, annual core inflation rose from January’s 2.2% to 2.5% in February.
The Central Bank’s target inflation rate is 3.0% plus/minus 1.0 percentage points for 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect annual inflation to average 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects inflation to average 3.5%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports contract again in JanuaryIn January, exports shrunk 0.5% over the same month last year, coming in above December’s 3.2% contraction that had represented the first contraction since April 2013.
January’s drop resulted from falling exports of manufactures, which fell 1.6% in annual terms, coming in above December’s 3.2% decrease that had marked the largest drop in 17 months. Exports of electronic products—classified as a sub-category of manufactures—grew from December’s 9.9% increase to a 14.6% annual expansion in January. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, electronic products account for the largest share of the total exports revenue. Exports of agro-based products rebounded from December’s sizable 24.9% contraction to a 12.9% expansion in January.
In December (the latest month for which data are available), imports fell 10.6% in annual terms, coming in marginally up from November’s 10.8% decrease. Meanwhile, the trade balance improved and tallied a USD 68 million deficit in December (December 2013: USD 485 million deficit).
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see exports rising 1.8% in 2015 and then accelerating to a 8.3% expansion in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the trade deficit to reach USD 5.6 billion in 2015 and USD 5.5 billion in 2016.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: National Statistics Office (NSO).
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15
Month-on-month (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)
%%
Merchandise Exports | in %
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %.Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.
2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts
6 | Investment | variation in %
8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts
Notes and sources
General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: NSCB.3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.7 Private consumption, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last
18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the
last 18 months.9 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO.11 Balance of national government as % of GDP. Source: BSP.12 Manufacturing, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18
months.14 Balance of national government as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and
2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 6.1 6.3Banco de Oro 6.5 6.8BofA Merrill Lynch 6.1 6.1BPI AMTG 6.5 -Capital Economics 6.5 6.5Citigroup Global Mkts 6.7 6.5Credit Agricole 6.2 7.0Credit Suisse 6.4 6.4Daiwa 5.3 4.9DBS Bank 6.3 6.0Deutsche Bank 6.5 6.5EIU 6.7 6.6Frontier Strategy Group 6.6 6.5Goldman Sachs 6.8 6.1HSBC 6.0 6.1ING 6.7 7.0JPMorgan 6.4 5.9Maybank Investment Bank 7.0 -Metrobank 6.4 6.6Morgan Stanley 6.3 6.3Nomura 6.6 6.5Oxford Economics 6.5 6.3Philippine Equity Partners 6.1 6.0Standard Chartered 6.0 5.7UBS 6.5 5.8SummaryMinimum 5.3 4.9Maximum 7.0 7.0Median 6.5 6.3Consensus 6.4 6.3History30 days ago 6.3 6.260 days ago 6.2 6.290 days ago 6.2 6.2Additional ForecastsGovernment (Jan. 2015) 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0IMF (Oct. 2014) 6.3 6.0ADB (Dec. 2014) 6.4 -
Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %
Notes and sources
General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 15 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: NSO.16 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index
(CPI) in %. Source: NSO.17 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.18 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (aop). 2005-
2014. Source: NSO.20 Money, annual variation of M2 in %. 2001-2014. Source: BSP.21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week.
Source: MSCI Barra.22 Daily index levels, PSEi. Jan. 2010 until end of previous week. Source:
The Philippine Stock Exchange.
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016ANZ 3.0 3.5Banco de Oro 3.8 3.8BofA Merrill Lynch 2.8 3.5BPI AMTG 3.0 -Capital Economics 3.0 3.0Citigroup Global Mkts 2.6 3.1Credit Agricole 3.5 3.5Credit Suisse 2.7 3.7Daiwa 3.6 3.1DBS Bank 3.2 3.8Deutsche Bank 2.5 3.5EIU 3.0 3.7Frontier Strategy Group 3.0 3.1Goldman Sachs 2.4 2.9HSBC 2.6 3.6ING 2.8 3.2JPMorgan 1.5 -Maybank Investment Bank 3.5 -Metrobank 2.8 3.9Morgan Stanley 2.7 3.4Nomura 2.5 3.2Oxford Economics 2.8 3.5Philippine Equity Partners 2.8 3.2Standard Chartered 3.2 3.7UBS 2.6 4.2SummaryMinimum 1.5 2.9Maximum 3.8 4.2Median 2.8 3.5Consensus 2.9 3.5History30 days ago 3.1 3.460 days ago 3.3 3.690 days ago 3.7 3.8Additional ForecastsCentral Bank Target 3.0±1.0 -IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.9 3.5ADB (Dec. 2014) 4.1 -
15 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in %
17 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst
19 | Core and Producer Prices | var. in %
21 | MSCI Price Index
16 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in %
18 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst
20 | Money | variation in %
22 | Stock Market | PSEi
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Core PPI
150
250
350
450
550
650
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
1
2
3
4
5
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
MaximumConsensusMinimum
0
3
6
9
2000 2005 2010 2015
PhilippinesAsia (ex Japan)
0
10
20
30
40
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
JanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJan
2
3
4
5
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
MaximumConsensusMinimum
2
3
4
5
Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q4 15
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 8
April 2015
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
Notes and sources
General: Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source: BSP.24 Quarterly interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source:
BSP.25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.27 Exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.28 Quarterly exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: NSO.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BSP.34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016
forecasts during the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.36 External debt as % GDP. Source: BSP.
President: Benigno Aquino IIILast elections: 10 May 2010Next elections: 9 May 2016Central Bank Governor: Amando M. Tetangco Jr.
FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11
April 2015
Economic Release Calendar
Date Country Event24 March China March HSBC Manufacturing PMI24 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**)25 March Korea Q4 2014 National Accounts25 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)26 March Korea March Consumer Confidence26 March Philippines Central Bank Meeting28 March Vietnam Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**)30 March Korea April Business Confidence31 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales31 March Korea February Industrial Production31 March New Zealand March Business Confidence31 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production31 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade1 April China March Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Korea March Consumer Prices1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**)2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices3 April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade6 April India March HSBC Services PMI7 April Australia February Retail Sales7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting7 April India Central Bank Meeting7 April Philippines March Consumer Prices7 April Singapore Q1 2015 National Accounts (**)8 April Philippines February Exports8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices9 April Australia March Unemployment9 April China March Merchandise Trade (**)9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting10 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**)10 April China March Consumer Prices10 April China March Producer Prices10 April China March New Yuan loans (**)
Calendar
FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12
April 2015
Economic Release Calendar
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.
Date Country Event10 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**)10 April India February Industrial Production10 April India March Consumer Prices10 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production10 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**)14 April India March Wholesale Prices14 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting14 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**)15 April China Q1 2015 National Accounts15 April China March Industrial Production15 April China March Retail Sales15 April China March Fixed Asset Investment15 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade15 April Philippines February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**)17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April China March Property Prices20 April Korea March Merchandise Trade20 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**)20 April New Zealand Q1 2015 Consumer Prices21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices22 April Australia Q1 2015 Consumer Prices23 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI23 April Korea Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)23 April Singapore March Consumer Prices23 April Taiwan March Industrial Production24 April Korea April Consumer Confidence24 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**)25 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**)
FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13
April 2015
Notes and Statements
PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:
Asia (16 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asia ex-Japan (15 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 10 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.
Notes
ASIA PACIFIC |
CENTRAL AMERICA |& CARIBBEAN |
EASTERN EUROPE|
EURO AREA |
LATIN AMERICA|
MAJOR ECONOMIES |
MIDDLE EAST| & NORTH AFRICA|
NORDIC ECONOMIES|
Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand
Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago
G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland
Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa
Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
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