Connecting people to policy making: the Futurium experiment Symposium "Generation Web 2.0: using new technologies in the public sector in Europe", Tallinn, 26-27 June 2014 Franco Accordino European Commission - DG CONNECT
Apr 01, 2015
Connecting people to policy making: the Futurium experiment
Symposium "Generation Web 2.0:using new technologies in the public sector in Europe",
Tallinn, 26-27 June 2014
Franco AccordinoEuropean Commission - DG CONNECT
Energy positive
Enhanced-humans
Big Big Data“Organic” computing
Cloudcomputing
Energy efficient
Internet of Things
3D PrintingComplex systems
Virtualisation
2015-20 2040-50
Fou
nd
ati
on
s
Tech
nolo
gie
s
Ch
allen
ges/I
ssu
es
Financial stability
Sustainability
Healthyageing
Resourceefficiency
Climatechanges
Policy Making 2.0
TrustSecurityprivacy
Smart citiesResource
sharingPolicy
Making 3.0
Towardsimmortality
Interim/betastatus
Governance
QuantumInternet
Citizen empowerment
“Conventional” ICT (Silicon based, Packet switching, Boolean, …)
ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-Quantum convergence
Big Data
“Play & Rewind”
Bio-devicesSimulated
worlds
Today's socio-political drivers
• Data, computing and connectivity everywhere• Government's control on people• Individual empowerment• Inclusion and skills• Systemic automation• Erosion of human employment• Inter-generational tensions• Costs/impacts of public services• Rise of movements• Disaffection of people from public matters
Futurium purpose
To enable a collective inquiry
into the ideas and aspirations of
citizens, in order to feed future
policy reflections
Futures(Visions)
Policies
Inspire
Impact on individuals, society,
economy, environment,
politics, technologies,…Real world
Trends
ScientificEvidence
Sense & Analyse data, Identify issues and challenges,
Elicit knowledge
(Re-)shapeInform
Envision
IMPLEMENTATION /REVIEW
DESIGN
Stakeholders
Policy makers
Other factors than evidence
SocialNetworks
Rat
ion
al, s
cien
tifi
c, a
nal
ytic
alEmotional, intuitive, holistic
Rules and Laws
Scientific evidence & people‘s opinion
6/10
Crowd engagement strategy
1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders
• Standard format: participatory brainstorming
• Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,…
• Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings
• Going local: Member States, schools, conferences…
• Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules
2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium)
• Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow
• Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,…
• Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding
• Agent-based gaming and simulation
emergent collective intelligence
7/10
Futurium Data Model
Trend
Every European
Digital
Future
Future
Future
DAE Policy
A1 A101 AA
BA C
Futures (visions)
Policy Ideas
pillars
actions
Agents
p1 p7
2012 2020 2050
Policies:• Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T.
objectives• May be structured (e.g. pillars)• Atomic level: timed actions• Have a measurable impact • Other measurable attributes
(e.g. plausibility, innovation, …)
Futures:• Desirability (emotional view) • Likelihood (rational/scientific view)• Causality: antecedent->consequent• Forecasting vs. back casting• Challenges and Opportunities
Agents:• Stakeholders in broad sense (EC, MS,
Regions, Industry, Citizens…)• Implementers (those who execute
the actions)• Verifiers• Decision makers
Policy
AA
p p
AA
FutureFutureFuture
@? #
Discrete Objects of Collective Inquiry
Co-Creation
• Bottom-up• Spontaneous• Emergent
Sense Making
• Top-Down• Structured• Convergent
Futurium
Foresight methodology
Reporting to decision makers
Sense-making
Futurium co-creation
Sense-making
Sense-making
Asynchronous sense-making steps over a continuous online engagement process
DigitalFutures
Futu
rium
Futu
rizens
Futures
120+ Events, 3000+ co-creators
30+ Webinars
~1800> Futurium members
Breaking into new policy making practices
Futurium model
20+ Requests for take-up
11 Themes
200+ Futures
1800+ Evidence items
Outcomes
11/10
Stakeholders
ParticipatoryTools
Policy Makers
mine & visualise
mine & visualise
Social Media (Twitter, FB, G+,…)
Participate
Participate
Real world data
ParticipateParticipate
Data Gathering
Data Crawling
OpenData
KnowledgeHarvesting Tools
Futurium’s conceptual architecture
Gaming, multi-agent simulations,…
Foresight tools: workflows, Delphi, back-cast diagrams…
Semantic tools: fact-finding, search, text mining, …
Data Mining, statistics, visual analytics
Basic data types: visions, policies,
evidence
Communities
MessagingEvents
Wiki
Blogs
Desirability Plausibility
SMART policy attributes
Impact
Library
Polls
More features
1) Futurium is a e-Participation platform to enable
grassroots engagement into foresight
2) Content co-created on Futurium is informative rather
than deliberative
3) Suitable to support civic society engagement in line with
Art 11 of the Treaty
More information
Paper: "The Futurium - a Foresight Platform for Evidence-Based and
Participatory Policymaking"
http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=a
rticle&id=doi:10.1007/s13347-013-0108-9
The futurium platform:
http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/
Thanks!
Background Slides
eGovernment Action Plan
• Empower citizens and businesses
• Reinforce mobility in the Single Market
• Enable efficiency and effectiveness
• Create the necessary key enablers and pre-
conditions to make things happen
By 2015 50% of citizens and 80% of businesses should use eGovernment services.
Case Study: Digital Futures, reflections to prepare for the renewal of the EU policy context in 2014
Futurium Sense Making
New European Commission
New European ParliamentSpring 2014
Autumn 2014
Inspired by long-term advances of digital technologies
"Hints"
2015-2025 (?)
Policy Ideas
Visions2040-2050
EC mandates2010-2014 2015-2019
Barroso II
Policy Frameworks2010-2020 (Europe 2020)
Trends2020+
+ Anticipation
+ Evidence+ Participation
+ Agility
Open DataInternet
Foresight Approach: back-casting + scenario planning
Policy choices
Futurium timeline
Oct 2012
Mar 2012Nov 2012
EP/EIF(futurium kick-off)
ICT2013Nov 2013
DAA DublinJun 2013
11 Compelling themes