Conflict Mapping Survey Cueibet County, Lakes, South Sudan September 2017 This survey was made possible thanks to the kind support of USDOS, Bureau of Africa
Conflict Mapping SurveyCueibet County, Lakes, South Sudan
September 2017
This survey was made possible thanks to the kind support of USDOS, Bureau of Africa
Objectives of the Conflict Mapping Survey
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1) Inferential analysis: Investigate the historical roots of cattle-relatedconflicts (mapping of the chains of cattle raids and revenge claims)
2) Descriptive analysis: Provide an outlook of livelihood strategies,people displacement (IDPs), safety & security concerns, and GBV threats
Survey Methodology and notes on data reading
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QuestionnaireThe questionnaire was developed by AVSI in collaboration with academics from the Departmentof Anthropology of the University of Notre Dame.
Sampling strategy The sampling strategy followed the standard two-stage cluster sampling, the first one (PPS withstratification to take into account village size and distance from main settlements) to guide theselection of villages, and the second one (Improved Random Walks) to select household to besampled. 372 households were surveyed.
Data readingData reflects the number of HHs or individuals reporting a certain answer. The sum of all answersfor a given question is limited to 100% when one response only was allowed, but may reach 200%in the case two responses were allowed, 300% when three, and so on.
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1) Exchange, Raiding, and Revenge Claim Interactions in Cueibet County, South Sudan:
A Social Network Analysis
Based on “Exchange, Raiding, and Revenge Claim Interactions in Cueibet County, South Sudan: A Social NetworkAnalysis” Final report - Yang Yang, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University & Rahul Oka, Departmentof Anthropology, University of Notre Dame
Objective
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JustificationAs substance pastoralism remains a primary source of livelihood in South Sudan, cattle raidingrepresent one of the most economically disruptive form of violence; revenge killings and acts ofGBV resulting from cattle raiding, conversely, represent one of the gravest security concern andone of the most common obstacle to micro-level peace building.
ObjectiveBy undertaking a social network analysis, to unpack and explain the relationships betweencultural dynamics -- especially the notion of honor/revenge claims -- cattle raiding, and theresulting violence that transpires regularly within the Dinka group in Cueibet, within a frameworkof gender analysis (differentiating the analysis for gender).
ResultTo provide an overlook of active conflicts and extant revenge-claims to offer a view of bothongoing and latent conflict to the local County Peace Committee. Additionally, the inclusion ofgender analysis aims at achieving gender equity in protection.
Methodology & Results
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MethodologyA social network analysis was employed to provide a statistical measure of the extent to whichrevenge claim networks and livestock exchange networks correlate or overlap with the raidingnetworks, and how these correlations are altered through time, and by gender.
Main findings 1) Women are significantly more likely to give/receive livestock and indulge in these meaningfulsymbolic exchanges with people (rather than in illegal form of cattle exchanges) than men.
2) While young respondents (< 25y) are more likely to engage in exchange networks, young adults(ages 25-30y) are far more likely to engage in raids or report being raided.
3) Raiding network are highly correlated with, and structurally similar to, Revenge claim network,regardless of gender
4) Livestock exchange networks are not correlated with Raiding network, nor with Revenge claimnetwork
Policy Implications
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1) and 2): Women and young males (< 25y) do engage in (legal) exchange of cattle and do notconsider it to be a source of shame, contrary to what is sometimes claimed in the literature
3) Outstanding revenge claims do lead to cattle raids. Monitoring them adequately could indeedprovide key information to put in place preemptive/mitigation measures
4) Livestock exchanges do not seem to lead to an increase in cattle raiding, nor to a decrease.Support to the commercialization of cattle herding sector, thus, should neither cause nordiminish cattle raiding and its violent consequences
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2) Main findings on displacement, livelyhood, security, and GBV
General outlook
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With little less than 20K families, a large section of the people of Cueibet county has no schooling experience. Their main source of income is related to agriculture.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Agriculture and Sale of cereals (sorghum, maize etc)
Agriculture and Sale of other crops and products
Sale of animal products (milk etc)
Livestock and Sale of livestock
Sale of alcoholic beverages
Salaried work
Skilled labour
Casual labour related to agricultural activities
Begging
Sale of firewood
Sales of grass
Other non-agricultural casual labour
Borrowing
Sales of charcoal
Casual labour related to construction
Main source of incomeNumber of people*
County 177,987
Abiriu 41,115
Citcok 25,096
Cueibet
Duony 13,705
Malou-pec 62,473
Mayath
Ngap 19,935
Pagor 15,663
Tiap-tiap
62% 12% 4%5% 9% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Education level of caretaker interviewed 18 to 19 years
No formal education Some lower primary
Some higher primary Completed primary
Some secondary Completed secondary
*Not sure about the repartition in the new payam system. Displayed is the population attributed to the payam using the old system, reported in “Population Projections for South Sudan by Payam - From 2015 – 2020” NBS South Sudan.
People displacement (inflow and outflow)
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People displacement/relocation is very intense: in the county, merely 19% of HHs is composed of natives only; 67% of HHs has relocated/was displaced in the last year and another 15% of HHs hosts IDPs (11% vulnerable* IDPs). Outflows figures confirm a remarkable level of displacement (48% of brother/sister left in the last year)
67%
4%
11%
19%
15%
Composition of Cueibet - natives HHs vs. newly arrived HHs vs. natives HHs hosting IDPs
HHs arrived in the last year Local HHs hosting IDP - non vulnerables
Local HHs hosting IDP - vulnerables Rest of native HHs
*Vulnerable: above 60 years, unaccompanied minors, single mothers
48%
Outflow (% of respondent’s brothers/sisters who relocated in the last year)
% of brothers/sisters who relocated in the last yearOthers
People displacement (reasons)
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Although security-related reasons are the most significant cause of people displacement/relocation (in red), in most cases insecurity is coupled with lack of economic means (orange) as the main driver of people dislocation
Reasons for arriving or leaving Frequencies No reasons (HHs not affected by inflow/outflow of people) 10%
Only due to lack of security/cattle raiding 15%
Lack of security & Other reasons 2%
Due to Lack of security/Cattle raiding & Lack of income 52%
Due to Lack of security/Cattle raiding & Lack of income & Other reasons 2%
Only due to Lack of income (Hunger and/or Lack of employment) 12%
Due to Lack of income & other reasons 3%
Only other reasons 4%
Grand Total 100%
Livelihood activities
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Almost every HH cultivates large plots, Tiap-tiap being the only payam slightly less engaged in farming. Livestock raring is common, especially in Pagor, but with different aims: for selling/consumption in Duony; for marriage/saving in Tiap-tiap
ABIRIU CITCOK CUEIBET DUONYMALOU-
PECMAYATH NGAP PAGOR
TIAP-
TIAP
Cultivate land 100% 100% 100% 98% 98% 100% 100% 98% 83%
I measure the size
of the cultivation
in Acres or
Feddans (vs
Katala)
98% 98% 100% 95% 84% 91% 94% 93% 83%
ABIRIU CITCOK CUEIBET DUONYMALOU-
PECMAYATH NGAP PAGOR
TIAP-
TIAPCounty
HH with livestock 79% 83% 89% 95% 83% 74% 86% 98% 80% 85%
Of HH with livestock
% with milk79% 73% 91% 100% 91% 96% 86% 98% 56% 86%
Animal reared and
bred in groups73% 50% 86% 33% 72% 20% 69% 90% 59% 62%
Average # of cattle 17 12 17 20 19 17 10 36 13 19
# of cattle
Average # of sheep 6 5 9 7 11 8 8 9 5 8
Average # of goats 9 5 9 6 9 9 7 13 6 8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Use of cattle
For marriage
For saving purposes
Household uses/own consumption
Commercial purpose/for selling
Draught animals/working purposes
Constraints to livelhihood activities
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Tiap-tiap stands out for its limited access to water, which most likely constraints farming too. Pagor “demands” support
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500%
ABIRIU
CITCOK
CUEIBET
DUONY
MALOU-PEC
MAYATH
NGAP
PAGOR
TIAP-TIAP
County
Main constraints to livestock farming
Cattle raiding Insecurity-Conflict
Lack of water Lack of grazing pastures
Pest and diseases Lack of veterinary services
Inability to access communal grazing lands Lack of market for livestockABIRIU CITCOK CUEIBET DUONY
MALOU-
PECMAYATH NGAP PAGOR
TIAP-
TIAPCounty
Main source
of water
changes
according to
seasons
86% 95% 94% 82% 86% 50% 91% 68% 92% 83%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ABIRIU
CITCOK
CUEIBET
DUONY
MALOU-PEC
MAYATH
NGAP
PAGOR
TIAP-TIAP
County
Time to go and return to the closest water source
Less than 1 hour Between 1 and 2 hours More than 2 hours
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ABIRIUCITCOK
CUEIBETDUONY
MALOU-PECMAYATH
NGAPPAGOR
TIAP-TIAPGrand Total
Distance to water source for animals
Less than 1 hour Between 1 and 2 hours Between 2 and 4 hours More than 4 hours
Livelihood/resources-related conflicts
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Conflict over resources is mostly registered in Pagor, Tiap-tiap and Cueibet
% of HHs who report
conflicts related to…ABIRIU CITCOK CUEIBET DUONY MALOU-PEC MAYATH NGAP PAGOR TIAP-TIAP County
-Land used for grazing 77% 92% 95% 95% 80% 97% 100% 98% 98% 91%
-Water source for
livestock85% 86% 100% 95% 80% 94% 97% 100% 98% 92%
-Competition among
livestock owners and
farmers
87% 92% 97% 97% 82% 91% 91% 100% 100% 93%
Main problems (occurred in the last 3 months)
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Cattle raid is the most widespread problem, reported by 49% of HHs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Fire in house
Long term health problem
Livestock/ crop disease
Insicurity/violence
Food too expensive/ hight food price
Lack of free access/movement
Flood
Drought
Cattle Raid
Sudden health problem or accident
Loss of land/ assets
Loss of work of a household member
Weed/pest
Deatch of livestock
Death of family member
Theft of land/ assets
Incidence of problems in the last three months
Crimes (scope)
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Revenge killing is the most common criminal offence experienced by families. 66% of HHs indicates that such revenges are in direct response to cattle raiding
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Ambush
Abduction of women / forced…
Disappearence
House breaking (burglary)
Robbery
Land dispossesion
Revenge killing
Sexual assaults/raping
Disappearence of family members
Beating
Child abduction
Theft
Murder
Crime experienced in the last three years
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
AmbushBeating
Child abductionRobbery
DisappearenceAbduction of women / forced…
Revenge killingHouse breaking (burglary)
MurderSexual assaults/raping
Land dispossesionDisappearence of family members
Theft
Crimes occurring during or as a result of cattle raiding
Crimes (perpetrators and refferal pathways)
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The bulk of crimes is perpetrated by people living in far-away communities. Crimesare often reported to judiciary and law enforcement officials
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Family members
Unknown
Member of a close by village
Members from far away
Member of the same village
Perpetrators of crimes
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Head of the family
Police
NGO
Armed group
Religious leader
Went to court
Relative, friend or neighbor
Local politician
Nobody
Local leader
To whom was the crime reported
Crimes (medical/psychological support )
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Medical/psychological support was sought by 86% of HHs; however, many turned to family members, a sign of the limited availability of qualified support. Indeed, only ¼ of HHs qualified the support received as entirely useful
14%
86%
Share of HHs who received medical/psychological assistance after crime
No Yes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Social worker
CBO or other community groups
Other
NGO
Family member
Religious organization
Provider of medical/psycological assistance
45%
29%
25%
Usefulness of support received
Not much Only partially Yes
GBV (scope in Cuibet county)
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GBV acts are very common: only 17% of HHs has not experienced GBV in the last 5 years. Overall, GBV acts do not seem to be increasing compared to last year.
Type of GBV% who
reported it
Number of times in
the last 5 years
Physical violence 85% 6
Mental emotional pain 85% 6
Denied resources and opportunities 86% 6
Forced sex 78% 6
17%
23%
47%
13%
Experience of GBV in the last 5 years
No, they never happened to me or my familyYes, but they happened only in limited occasionsYes, they happened in several occasionsYes, they are part of life
53%
12%
35%
Time trend of GBV
Last year occurred more frequentlyThey occur more or less with the same frequencyNow they occurr more frequently
GBV (scope among payams)
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Where GBV acts are more frequent is in TIAP-TIAP, where the outlook is worsening, followed by NGAP, where it is improving.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ABIRIU
CITCOK
CUEIBET
DUONY
MALOU-PEC
MAYATH
NGAP
PAGOR
TIAP-TIAP
Grand Total
Time trend of GBV – current versus previous year
Now they occurr more frequently They occur more or less with the same frequency
Last year occurred more frequently
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ABIRIU
CITCOK
CUEIBET
DUONY
MALOU-PEC
MAYATH
NGAP
PAGOR
TIAP-TIAP
Grand Total
Experience of GBV in the last five years
Yes, they happened in several occasions Yes, they are part of life
Yes, but they happened only in limited occasions No, they never happened to me or my family
GBV (Root causes and main impact)
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Cattle raiding, the most significant cause of murders (i.e. one of the main Protection concern) is also strongly linked to GBV. The linkages between the two seems to be related to the use of cattle as dowry. Survivals lament problems in the relation with their partners
76%
18%
5%
Is there a relationship between GBV and Catlle raiding?
Yes No Does not know
Linkage between GBV and cattle raiding
Marriage 31%
Forced marriage 9%
Education 5%
High dowries 9%
Hunger/Lack of income 4%
Wealth 1%
Disagreements/Conflicts 30%
Weapons 1%
Revenge 1%
No connection - just an habit 1%
Bad friendhips 4%
Other 3%
Grand Total 100%
62%
26%
24%
28%
Main problems for survivals of sexual violence
Problem in the relations with partner/to find a partnerTaking care of your childrenProblems limiting the possibility to have a childSum of your family
GBV (most at risk groups and places)
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Young girls is the most-at-risk group of GBV; for them there are few safe places as GBV acts occur outside villages and in cattle camps as well as in the village. Apparently, communities have knowledge of specific individuals representing a threat
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
In the cattle camp
In the school
In the streets
Outside the villages
In other homes
In your house
In the village
Where GBV acts occur
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Orphans
Young girls, under 12
Women without babies
Women with babies
12 to 18 years old girls
Girls at school
Widows
18 to 30 years old women
Groups at risk of GBV
16%
84%
Are there specific individuals who are a threat in your village
No Yes
GBV (referral pathways to justice)
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GBV crimes are often reported to police officials. Insecurity, distance, and the practice of applying direct revenge hamper access to the legal system
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Chiefs
Commisioner
Director
Government authorities
Local leader
Payam administrator
Police
None
GBV referral pathsObstacles limiting reporting to police
Distance 21%
Insecurity 29%
Conflict 16%
Revenge 12%
Stigmatization 3%
Government/chiefs 4%
Others 15%
Total 163
GBV (safe spaces and communities’ suggestions)
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Schools seem to offer an ideal entry point for GBV interventions. Schools host the most-at-risk group, and are recognized as a safe place by the community. Education and the weakening of the “gun culture” is highlighted by interviewed as necessary components of a GBV intervention.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Schools
Police
Cultural centers
Hospital
Church
Home
Town
Other
Safe places wor women
What could be done to improve women’s safety Improve security 38%
Peace building 23%
Education 23%
Disarmement 8%
Community meetings 3%
Enforce law 5%
Other 17%
James Wole, a South Sudanese local NGO employee, said: “If I do not carry a gun, the men despise me as a defenseless woman.
What could be done to reduce cattle raiding
Disarmament 58%Peace building 23%
Law enforcement 9%Improve security 4%Other 6%
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Thank you for your time!